Iran Feature: Why Peace Activists Should Take an Interest in the Green Movement (Postel/Hashemi)

Danny Postel and Nader Hashemi write for The Fellowship of Reconciliation:

We are peace activists and supporters of the Green movement in Iran. We adamantly oppose any military attack on Iran, and we stand in solidarity with the democratic struggle in Iran. We see these positions as inextricably linked, as forming a consistent position based on the principles of peace, social justice, and human rights. But there’s a lot of confusion about this in the peace movement. We offer the following food for thought in hopes of clarifying some of the issues at hand and encouraging peace activists to learn more about the Green movement.

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Iran Feature: The Battle Within and The Protests Are Still The Stories (Miller)

Western audiences, and especially Americans, don't like complicated, sad stories.  We like good guys and bad guys, cowboys and Indians, terrorists and allies.  We don't like to hear that 40-60% of the population of a country that we view as an enemy might very well be a friend.  We don't like to hear that the government we are negotiating with is illegitimate, or weak.  We also don't like to follow the slow development of an opposition movement that we can do little to help.  We like sexy stories like weapons of mass destruction or revolution, and we certainly like clarity.

Unfortunately, as long as we're not paying attention, we're also not helping, and until the media starts to cover these stories, many more people may die before things improve in Iran.

(Photograph by Munzz)

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Iran Analysis: Protests and Options --- What Now for the Greens and the Government?

Today’s protest showed both the limited capacity of the Greens to muster huge number of protesters because of Government repression, but at the same time it demonstrated how weak the government has become in dealing with its foes.

With options running out on both sides, the real question is: who is going to give in first and cross the point of no return on its nuclear option?

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WikiLeaks: A Guide to EA's Saturday-Monday Coverage

ANALYSES

1. A two-part special evaluating the January 2010 assessment of the Green Movement and Iranian politics by the US Consulate in Dubai:

Part 1: "US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation"

Part 2: "US Diplomats Assess Green Movement and Politics 'From Crisis to Stalemate'"

2. Getting behind misleading headlines to assess the claim "Saudi Arabia: A Cash Machine for Terrorists"

3. Getting to the real significance on an American assessment of the situation in Iraq: "Comparing the Threats from Saudi Arabia and Iran"

FEATURES AND DOCUMENTS

1. A November 2009 diplomatic episode involving the US and Libya: "When the Nuclear Deal Almost Unraveled...Because Qadhafi Couldn't Camp in New York"

2. The State Department warns students, "Link to Documents and You'll Never Work for Us"

WikiLeaks Document & EA Analysis: US Diplomats on Green Movement & Iran's Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

Today we post Part 2 of the analysis of the situation in Iran by the US Consulate in Dubai in January 2010. (The first cable was published on EA on Friday.)

It is a must-read document, but it is still an incomplete assessment. The challenge to the regime has never been one of an all-or-nothing contest between Government and Green Movement. The Consulate's attempted analogies with Iran 1978/1979 and Poland in the 1980s are distracting, rather than illuminating.

Instead the current possibilities of change have come through the dynamic between the space for resistance opened up by opposition movements and the space exploited by those manoeuvring within the Iranian system.

That is still true today.

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Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess Green Movement & Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

We have now added a special analysis to our posting of Part 2 of the US Consulate in Dubai's analysis in January 2010 of the Green Movement and Iran's political situation. The revised post is at the top of the homepage.

Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation (January 2010)

"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."

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Iran Document: Karroubi "If Green Movement is Dead, Why Do You Continue Arresting Innocent People?"

You see, they initially sought to hold formal elections but came to the conclusion that in order to stay in power and still put on a front that there is democratic rule, they needed to have an election process that suited them and ensured that certain individuals did better at the voting booths. This issue gradually continued, and during the 10th presidential elections when we witnessed the height of disrespect regarding the people's vote, our citizens finally responded strongly....

They [the ruling government] did not expect such a strong response by our citizens and resorted to oppression. Naturally, as the people's dissatisfaction increases, because they never expected such a reaction, in order to save themselves and remain in power, they resorted to increased pressure....

You [ruling government] claim to have stifled and inhibited the Green Movement. If that is the case, why then do you speak of the so called sedition on a daily basis? Why do you continue to speak behind people's back? Why are you so afraid to allow the slightest movement by the people? If the so called sedition is dead, then why do you continue to endlessly arrest innocent people?

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The View from Iran: Ahmadinejad's Propaganda, Stoning, and the Green Movement (Gallo)

A reformist leader in Iran who wishes to remain anonymous summarises, "The society lives in fear, but under the ashes the fire of opposition hasn’t been extinguished. There is now a big gap between a large part of the Iranian people and its government."

The immediate enemy of the Government is the economic crisis. A well-placed journalist notes, "When you speak to Iranians the first thing on their mind is the terrible state of the economy, the inflation and unemployment. Young people are desperate, they see a grim future and many want to leave the country.”  

With the imminent introduction of reductions in the $100 billion-per-year Government subsidies, money will be missing in the pockets of the people. That is now the hottest challenge for the regime, but its effects could reignite the fire under the ashes, reuniting dissatisfied segments of society as resurrecting publicly the opposition of the Green Movement.

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Iran Analysis: Dead End for Reform --- and Which Way Forward? (Rasoulpour)

Saman Rasoulpour writes in Rooz Online:

How have the events of the past year affected the future of reforms and movements for reform in Iran? This is a question worth asking these days. The protests of the past year, while challenging every aspect of the regime, had one unintended consequence: It exposed significant challenges to the future of reform in Iran. These challenges can be grouped in several categories.

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