Watch these references to "unity" from Rafsanjani and the "moderate conservatives". They may indeed mark a unification --- one which is not of support for the Government, but of the forging of an alliance to challenge Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his closest allies.
Rafsanjani and Mahdavi-KaniAfter 30 years of patient mediation as the Islamic Republic’s quintessential “crisis man”, Rafsanjani has been shunted aside because, in the words of his brother, “no one listens to him anymore”. Despite paying lip service to the Leader, maintaining control over the largely spent Expediency Council and calling for internal unity, Rafsanjani is moving closer and closer to becoming a ceremonial figure, one whose capacity for scheming and plotting is diminishing by the day.
1650 GMT: "Proper" Studies. Iran's Ministry of Sciences and Higher Education has banned Iranian graduate students from pursuing a dissertation on any subject related to Iran while studying abroad.
The ban covers all Iranian students, whether they are financially supported by the Government or paying for their education. Students who violate the directive will face problems with confirmation of their degrees by the Iranian authorities and with applications for jobs.
1615 GMT: Labour Front. Workers at Tabriz Petrochemical Plant have ended an 11-day strike after their demands were met.
1610 GMT: Smoothing the Waters. More on the Supreme Leader's appearance at the Assembly of Experts....
2210 GMT: Clerical Challenge. A different line of criticism from Grand Ayatollah Vahid Khorasani, who has been distancing himself from the regime, today....
Vahid Khorasani said that the Government was "losing Islam" by failing to prevent Iran's youth from being seduced by Christianity.
2150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ardavan Tarakmeh, student director, writer and film critic, has been sentenced to three years in prison.
Tarakmeh is the son of reputed writer and literary critic Younes Tarakmeh. He was arrested during the Ashura demonstrations of 27 December 2009.
Farnaz Kamali, a member of the One Million Signatures Campaign for women's rights, has been released on $300,000 bail.
Kamali was arrested in Tehran during the protests on 20 February and charged with actions against national security, membership in the Campaign to Free [student activist] Atefeh Nabavi, and participation in protests.
2125 GMT: Claimed video of the security presence in Tehran today:
2115 GMT: The Assembly of Experts. Reuters offers an overview of the significance of today's vote removing Hashemi Rafsanjani as head of the Assembly, with EA making this cameo apperance:
In the short-term Ahmadinejad has scored a victory in terms of his immediate authority within the establishment, but it raises questions for those beyond Rafsanjani who may have questions about that authority.It is a question of who's next?
I really hope we will finally tone down the idea that he still holds power. He has no power and is being pushed out of the instittuional sphere.
He has been hounded out of the Assembly of Experts, his son [Mohsen Hashemi] ousted as head of the Tehran Metro, the other son [Mehdi Hashemi] a fugitive, and the daughter [Faezeh Hashemi] called a whore in broad daylight.
What can you really expect from the man now?
2115 GMT: The Assembly of Experts Meeting. The gathering of the 84 members of the Assembly of Experts begins tomorrow, but already there is a ripple: the office of Ayatollah Dastgheib, whos is the member for Shiraz, says the cleric has not received his invitation to attend and has demanded the release of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
2110 GMT: An Unscripted Moment for the Speech. Footage from Voice of America of a member of the audience interrupting today's speech in Shiraz by President Ahmadinejad:
1935 GMT: Economy Watch. An official at the Central Bank has said that Iran's annual rate of inflation, in the second month after subsidy cuts, has risen from 10.8% to 11.6%.
2000 GMT: A Right Nuclear Mess. Looks like Iran has got itself in a real tangle over its first nuclear plant at Bushehr.
Last week reports emerged that Iran was having to withdraw fuel rods from Bushehr, opened last autumn, because of unspecified technical problems.
Although there was some discussion of whether the difficulty was the Stuxnet computer worm, allegedly introduced by the "West" and/or Israel into software running the plant, the issue might have stopped there. But then Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast on Tuesday denied reports that any fuel has been removed, saying operations at the facility "are running their normal course."
And now the deputy head of Parliament's Energy Commission, Abdollah Kaabi, has given the nuclear tension another stir with accusations against Moscow, contradicting the Foreign Ministry line that all is well. Kaabi said Saturday, “If Russia continues to delay the inauguration of Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) will definitely table a motion to demand compensation from Moscow.”
Kaabi said the Russians had always been “unreliable partners in the course of history”, causing “unacceptable” delays in the project and imposing heavy costs on Iran.
The power struggle within Iran's political elite will be on full display during the March 8-9 semiannual meeting of the Assembly of Experts [Editor's Note: We are working with the dates of 7-8 March], the body charged with selecting the country's Supreme Leader and, in the case of the imminent meeting, electing a head of the assembly for the coming year. The assembly is now led by Rafsanjani himself, who twenty-two years ago played the lead role in selecting Ali Khamenei to succeed Ruhollah Khomeini as the country's Supreme Leader. In the present predicament, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad and other hardliners are trying to prevent Rafsanjani from maintaining his leadership of the assembly, yet removing him would further narrow the field of Iran's religious and political elite who support Khamenei.
At the end of the day it will be the Iranians on the street who will force the hands of the politicians. It will be a rising opposition movement on the ground that will become the catalyst for change in the political system.
So far, observations about political infighting have been inconclusive, though perhaps this will change soon. Right now, the energy is pouring out of the emails, the Tweets, the blog posts. The opposition is fired up; the Green Zone is refusing to go gently into that good night.
Like a lime being squeezed, the Green Movement is slipping its bonds. The iron fist of the regime tries to tighten its grip, but the Green Zone expands and slips through its fingers.
Friday, March 18, 2011 at 8:01