The Latest from Iran (4 March): 19 Days and Counting

2230 GMT: Three more claimed videos of last Tuesday's protests:

"Mousavi, Karroubi Must Be Freed!"

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The Latest from Iran (2 March): Marching Through the Blackout

2135 GMT: Economy Watch. Voice of America profiles the five- to ten-fold increase in domestic gas prices after the removal of subsidy cuts.

2125 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farah Vazehan, arrested after the Ashura demonstration of December 2009, has been sentenced to 17 years in prison.

Vazehan was originally condemned to death.

Reformist activist Davoud Kahnamooei was arrested in Tabriz during Tuesday's protests.

Kahnamooei is a member of the East Azerbaijan branch of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front and of Mir Hossein Mousavi's 2009 Presidential campaign.

Three other activists distributing green wristbands have also been detained.

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The Latest from Iran (1 March): In Prison...And On the Streets?

2050 GMT: Deutsche Welle carries this account from a participant in the protest in Tehran (translation by Tehran Bureau):

The number of security forces today in Tehran was higher than February 14 and 20. There were a lot of plainclothesmen. The security forces hit the protesters hard in an attack at Vali Asr Crossroads and closed off the area. They fired a few shots in the air and the crowd dispersed.

We waited for half an hour in one of the side streets of Vali Asr and then exited with a few others. In the dark and cold, we started walking toward Enghelab and Azadi Squares. The entire crowd were walking toward the west on the sidewalks, but there were a lot of plainclothesmen among the people....Every now and then, security forces would politely take someone aside and check their camera, cell phone, bag, or wallet and then take a picture. I could see people on scaffolds, taking people's pictures from a wide angle after a minute's pause.

Right before Navab Avenue, the crowd got denser and security forces moved to disperse them. People quickly turned down side streets. Some said there were clashes on Navab and they don't want people to get there. We went toward Tohid like the other times. Then, we went toward Azadi and saw that people were moving away from the avenue because there were clashes down there. People were being attacked by security forces and plainclothesmen....

Security forces had brutally attacked protesters. Some people told us they had fired shots in the air repeatedly.

I can't say how many people were there. But I can tell you that half the people on the sidewalks were security forces and Basij.

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The Latest from Iran (28 February): The Regime's Escalation

2030 GMT: Not the Same. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has told journalists in Geneva, "There is absolutely no comparison between what is happening in the countries in the region and what has happened in Iran in a few incidents." He declared that Iran had only experienced a few "manipulated protests, while mass movements in the nations in the region are authentic, popular and people's movements".

Salehi said his government was "shocked" by Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi's resort to force against civilians and hoped that "the power is transferred through legal means to the people".

2025 GMT: The Arrests. Zahra Eshraghi, human rights activist and granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, has written on her Facebook page, "If Mousavi and Karroubi and their followers are anti-revolutionary, the Imam Khomeini must be as well."

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The Latest from Iran (26 February): Uncertainties

2000 GMT: Closing Thoughts. A quiet evening, so we will end by noting a couple of thoughtful pieces....

Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now looks at the regime's efforts to crush opposition with house arrests to bring out a phrase that we like to use, "A Marathon, Not a Sprint":

The people of Iran have suffered under a tyrannical and cunning regime for 32 years. The regime is extremely entrenched, with a power-base that is diffuse, distributed and ideological. It is a monster, but one that has begun to lose its grip.

The marathon to be rid of it is well under way.

And "A Contributor" at Tehran Bureau writes:

This has been a period of self-reflection, developing consciousness of and responsibility for the current situation. The people have understood who and what they are dealing with and this is extremely important....While the traditional joys of Tehrani life were nowhere to be seen, while all its lightness was burdened down, if you looked very closely, you could detect in the depths the churning of a long-awaited tide of transition.

We will be back early Sunday morning.

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The Latest from Iran (25 February): Whistling in the Dark

2315 GMT: A Call to March? Back from a break to wrap up with one piece of news --- an English translation of today's call by the opposition, "The Council for the Coordination of the Green Path of Hope", for more protests has been posted.

Following the warnings by the social and political organizations within the Green movement and in particular by the passionate reformist youth within the Green movement to the authoritarian government of Iran regarding the continued, illegal house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and their spouses, the Council for the Coordination of the Green Path of Hope in keeping with the legitimate demands of the nation of Iran, invites all freedom seeking citizens to protest the continued house arrest and imprisonment of the leaders of the Green Movement, this Tuesday, March 1st, 2011 [10 Esfand 1389], coinciding with the birthday of the great Mir Hossein of the Green Movement. The demonstrations will begin at 5:00pm and we will gather and march from Imam Hossein to Azadi Square [in Tehran] chanting "Ya Hossein....Mir Hossein" and "Ya Mehdi, Sheikh Medi", raising our voices to demand the release of our Green leaders. The demonstrations will also take place in the main squares across other major cities in Iran.

In the event that our voices are silenced and the illegal house arrest and imprisonment of the Green leaders continues, in addition to other methods [of civil disobedience] to be announced by the Council in its next statement, we are also calling upon all Green companions to participate in decentralized, nation-wide protest on Tuesday March 15th, 2011 [24 Esgand 1389] coinciding with ChaharShanbe Souri. During this undoubtedly difficult time, we ask all Green supporters to continue focusing on raising awareness [within our society] and to patiently endure the hardship and ill-treatment imposed upon us by the coup forces in power; hardships designed to continue the dire status quo and impose tyranny on the people of our nation. Together we will find a new path and better future for all Iranians, ensuring that our long traditions and the divine right throughout our history to be victorious and demand justice continues.

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From Tunisia/Egypt to Libya/Iran: Notes of Caution on Sudden Change

Events will move to the breaking point, when someone holds a gun to someone else's head, and everyone is forced to react. With Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest, Mehdi Karroubi under the constant guard of security forces in his own home, Hashemi Rafsanjani's power being challenged on the Assembly of Experts, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's term expiring, and the 2009 spirit of dissent reviving, the question is when that point is reached.

The earthquakes of Egypt and Tunisia built up for a long time on softer ground. It has taken, and will take, much longer for the fault lines to break the foundations of Iran's government. When it happens, the regime is likely to go quickly, and like a high-magnitude earthquake, the results will be felt far and wide.

We're already feeling the foreshocks, but the whole world is waiting for the big one.

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The Latest from Iran (24 February): The Mousavi-Karroubi Question

2130 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The debate over Hashemi Rafsanjani's future as head of the Assembly of Experts continues. MP Hojatoleslam Seyed Reza Akrami has jumped in on Khabar Online, declaring that criticism of Rafsanjani is "against law and morality".

2120 GMT: Assessing Crackdowns. Majid Mohammadi, writing for Gooya, offers a sharp analysis of regimes "managing street protests" and setting limits on the killing of dissenters, comparing Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Iran.

2110 GMT: Tonight's Regime Show. The Internet chatter this evening is not about the opposition but about the performance of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi on national television.

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The Latest from Iran (23 February): Breaking Karroubi

2120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hasan Younesi, the son of former Minister of Intelligence Ali Younesi, has been arrested for participation in Sunday's protests.

2040 GMT: Shutting Down Mousavi and Karroubi. Ruhollah Hosseinian, a staunchly pro-Government MP, has said that a Parliamentary committee has found Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to be "corruption agents on earth". That claim may be equivalent to "mohareb" (war against God), which carries the death penalty.

Karroubi's Saham News --- which is down at the moment --- has posted an editorial criticising senior clerics and reformists for failure to speak out on behalf of Karroubi and Mousavi.

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The Latest from Iran (19 February): Is That All There Is?

2150 GMT: 1 Esfand. Students at 14 Azad (Technical) Universities around Iran have announced their support of Sunday's rallies.

In an interview with the Green outlet RASA TV, Mir Hossein Mousavi's advisor Ardeshir Amir Arjomand confirms that Sunday's marches go ahead even though Mousavi is under house arrest:

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