Iran Snap Analysis: Car Bomb's Victim Was Not A "Nuclear Scientist", But Can This Still Mean "War?

The Body of Mostafa Ahmadi Rostan After the BombUPDATE 1210 GMT: An EA correspondent offers a vital addition to the analysis:

I think that caution should be applied on the theme of whether Ahmadi Rostan was a nuclear scientist or not. His links with the technical aspects of the nuclear programme are much clearer than, for example, those of Masoud Ali-Mohammadi [the scientist killed in January 2010 in a similar manner to yesterday's bombing]. His scientific curriculum fully fits the crucial gas stage of the uranium conversion and, according to Mehr, he was questioned recently by IAEA inspectors, who in turn are accused of making him known to the US and Israeli intelligence communities.

Unless the IAEA just questioned him to understand his procurement activities, there must have been valid technical reasons for them doing so, hence the label "nuclear scientist", which after all is a rather generic one. What Ahmadi was not was professor or even lecturer of any substantial level --- he wouldn't have been able to hold such a position with only a bachelor's degree.<

EA reader "M. Zand" (see Comments) points us in a similar direction, noting an article by Somayeh Soltani at Tehran Emrooz, "What was Engineer Ahmadi’s project?":

It is said that Martyr Ahmadi Roshan through a joint project was in particular working with polymer membranes to separate gases. To enrich Uranium, one uses polymer membranes such that Uranium is turned into Uranium hexafluoride gas, and then this gas is filtered through polymer membrane. With this Uranium 235 is filtered through polymer membrane and therefore enriched to Uranium 238.

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Expect a lot more media sound and some fury today over Wednesday's car bomb in Tehran, in which a motorcyclist killed Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan and his driver by attaching an explosive to their automobile.

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US Politics Feature: The Election Road Starts in Iowa

The first primary in the 2012 Presidential campaign will be held next Tuesday in New Hampshire. Before that, however, we get today's caucuses --- effectively, town meetings --- in Iowa for activists, primarily on the Republican side, to state their preference for the nominee for November's election.  Republican presidential hopefuls have criss-crossed the state for months, spending millions of dollars and time on states only have 11 of the 538 electoral votes that will determine who is the next President.

So why should we care beyond the razzmatazz of an opening contest?

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Bahrain (and Beyond) Opinion: Does Sayed Hashim's Death Matter?

Ali Shaikh and Sayed HashimIf these circumstances of Sayed Hashim's death are tragic, they are easy to explain. He is just another case of a person being in the wrong place at the wrong time. What he and his friends seek --- justice, democracy, equal rights - could disrupt the oil supply from Bahrain and create disturbances throughout the Persian Gulf. The implications of what a 16-year-old wanted could have been significant for cities from New York to London to Beijing to Tokyo.

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Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Uncertainty and Deaths in Homs

A march last night in the Al Bab section of Aleppo in Syria

Bahrain Feature: Today's Revival of Mass Protests
Syria Opinion: Beyond the "Sectarian" Spectre --- Everyone in Homs is a Victim
Bahrain Opinion: The US and "The Wrong Side of History"
Tuesday's Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: As Dozens Die in a Kidnapping, Damascus Responds to Arab League

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2110 GMT: Another video complementing our special feature on today's renewal of protests and clashes in Bahrain --- security forces mobilise in Aldaih in front of the house of the Vice President of Al Wefaq, the largest opposition group:

Meanwhile, Bahrain authorities, having initially said that a package detonated at the national airport contained explosives, now say that it had "tools used to make explosives".

The Ministry of Interior initially claimed that a group had sent explosives from Britain via Dubai, but it now asserts that the package was a "dummy" to test Bahrain's defences.

2010 GMT: More protest video from Syria tonight --- a rally in Bousr Al Harer in Daraa Province:

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Syria Opinion: Why There Should --- And Will --- Be a No-Fly Zone

The moral reasons for a no-fly zone have only grown as the humanitarian crisis has worsened. The geopolitical incentives are stronger than ever. Now the logistical and practical possibilities are emerging.

There will be a no-fly zone, with or without US participation. Turkey wants it, France is chomping at the bit for it, and at the end of the day the rest of the world will realize that there is at least one more domino that needs to fall.

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Pakistan Feature: A "Crisis in Relations" After NATO Kills 26 Pakistani Soldiers in Airstrikes?

Pakistanis Protest after NATO AttacksReading and comparing the coverage from websites in Pakistan, the US, and Britain over Saturday's NATO airstrikes that killed 26 Pakistani troops....

Dawn (Pakistan)

The United States stressed the “importance” of its ties with Pakistan after up to 26 soldiers were killed in cross-border Nato air strikes Saturday, plunging already frosty relations into crisis.

In a joint statement, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton offered their “deepest condolences” and said they backed “Nato’s intention to investigate immediately.”

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The Latest from Iran (13 November): An Explosion at a Military Base

2045 GMT: The Explosion. With the Revolutionary Guards "correcting" news about the blast at its Malard base twice within 24 hrs, Asr-e Iran has jabbed at the censorship and "informational shame".

2030 GMT: Corruption Watch. Iran's Inspector General Mostafa Pourmohammadi has said that the effects of financial corruption are worse than sanctions.

Hossein Fadayi of Parliament's Article 90 Commission offers a far different message: combating corruption is proceeding reasonably, and the Supreme Leader and his children are "the cleanest people".

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The Latest from Iran (5 November): You're A Terrorist --- No, You Are...

See also Iran Website Special: The Basij Militia's "Wall Street Fall"
The Latest from Iran (4 November): Ahmadinejad Punches Back

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1445 GMT: Hype Watch. Yet another spin effort by unnamed "diplomats" to international media ahead of next week's release of a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear programme....

The Associated Press is the chosen outlet to declare findings of "computer models of a nuclear warhead and other previously undisclosed details on alleged secret work", including "satellite imagery of...a large steel container used for nuclear arms-related high explosives tests".

AP reports, without critique, that "the newest compilation of suspected weapons-related work is significant in substance and scope".

1434 GMT: The Plot. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has again denounced the US claim of an Iran-backed plan to kill the Saudi Ambassador to Washington. He reiterated that Gholam Shakuri, the Iranian military official who is at the heart of the allegations, is actually a member of the insurgent group Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO).

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The Latest from Iran (30 October): When Talking Tough Is Not Enough....

See also Iran Video Interview: Hillary Clinton with BBC Persian "The Unfortunate Decsion of the Green Movement"
The Latest from Iran (29 October): The Economy, Propaganda, and the IMF

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2130 GMT: Elections Watch. Leading reformist Ali Shakourirad has said it is too late for the regime to meet former President Khatami's conditions --- freeing of political prisoners, freedom for political parties and a free and fair electoral process, and adherence to the Constitution --- for reformists to participate in next March's Parliamentary elections. They should instead inform people of their demands and objections to the current system.

2030 GMT: Parliament v. President. Looks like the Parliamentary challenge to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared over only a few days ago, is very much alive....

Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, said the motion to interrogate Ahmadinejad now bears 74 signatures, one more than the minimum needed for consideration.

Last week, Iranian media reported that a number of MPs had withdrawn their support for the motion, but some have now reconsidered their withdrawal and one new MP joined the petition.

The motion will be sent to a Parliamentary commission for examination. It cites 10 irregularities on which the president needs to be questioned, such as his alleged refusal to carry out legislation for funding of the Tehran subway and his disputes with the Supreme Leader over the reinstatement of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi.

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Iran Video Interview: Hillary Clinton with BBC Persian "The Unfortunate Decision of the Green Movement"

See also Iran Video: Hillary Clinton with Voice of America's Parazit

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Earlier this week we noted US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's PR offensive and posted the video of her interview with the Voice of America. Now we put up the footage of her discussion with BBC Persian, broadcast on the same day.

Personally, I found this interview far more provocative --- and thus interesting --- than the Voice of America chat. Clinton's description of the US position on the Iranian opposition is far from diplomatic, chiding both the Green Movement and Iranians in general for not doing enough to seek US help in the aftermath of the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

I am not sure Clinton's account is entirely accurate: I recall footage from autumn 2009 in which protesters called on the Obama Administration, then preoccupied with possible nuclear discussions with Tehran, to note their challenge to the regime. At the same time --- and noting that a discussion about the tactics of the Green Movement is far from a footnote --- the Secretary appears to be exposing Washington's dilemmas amidst the mass protests of June 2009: her people wanted to do something beyond telling Twitter to delay maintenance but were uncertain if their actions would be counter-productive as they raised the image of US intervention in Iran's affairs and the "Velvet Revolution" of regime change.