The Latest from Iran (28 October): "Our Prisons Are Full"

1854 GMT: James Miller takes the liveblog.

Reuters is reporting that three separate explosions have rocked Iran's oil and gas industry, though the government is stating that they are unrelated:

The fatal incident at the oil field at Bibi Hakimeh near the Gulf occurred during drilling, when workers unexpectedly encountered an "enormous volume of unknown accumulated gas" in the layers of a reservoir, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported. Three people were injured.

Mehr also reported a separate blast at the Shazand oil refinery in central Iran, but the plant's managing director later told state radio the incident had been exaggerated.

"Nothing special has happened there. There was no fire at all," Majid Rajabi said. "The refinery is functioning normally."

The third blast happened on a 26-inch pipeline carrying gas to an oilfield in Gachsaran in south-western Iran later on Friday, according to the official IRNA news agency.

Even if the blasts turn out to be unrelated, in the direct sense, this will raise serious concerns about the safety of Iran's infrastructure, especially in light of the explosion at the Abadan refinery in May while Ahmadinejad was at the plant.

1810 GMT: Deviant Current Watch. Ali Rezaei, Friday Prayer leader in Birjand and a representative of the Supreme Leader, has said he did not participate in a provincial government meeting because members of the "deviant current" were present.

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The Latest from Iran (27 October): Is US Government "Supporting the People"?

1723 GMT: Well, as at least one reader predicted, MP Larijani dismissed Hillary Clinton's recent statements, arguing that the democrats were trying to distract the world from their own financial and economic problems, and that these statements were just another sign that Zionists were trying to overcome American isolationism.

1700 GMT: A carefully planned trip by an EU delegation to Tehran has been cancelled because the delegates were not granted Iranian visas. The reason why the visas did not arrive was not immediately clear:

Europe's parliamentary delegation was preparing to speak with parliamentarians, government officials and representatives of civil society in Iran, on issues including Iran's nuclear program, human rights, energy, environment, national security and the upcoming parliamentary elections.

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Iran Video: Hillary Clinton with Voice of America's Parazit

As part of a major public-relations push which also included an interview with BBC Persian, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was interviewed by the Voice of America's Parazit programme, taking questions submitted via the Internet.

Opening with remarks about Iran's "military dictatorship" and her sadness that the greatness of the Iranian people was held back by the "narrow-mindedness" of the regime, Clinton discussed US policy towards Syria and then gave this take-away statement on Washington's position on Iran's internal affairs:

We're not seeking a conflict with the regime in Iran. We're seeking to support the people of Iran, by doing so on the outside through our assertions that their aspirations for freedom are legitimate, by providing tool to circumvent the electronic curtain that the regime has tried to impose on Iran.

Iran Opinion: The Plot --- What the US Got Wrong

In the past 24 hours, there have been a few new facts about the alleged Iran plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US and many more opinions and conjectures. The baseline, however, is still the way the US Government presented its case.

Given the fact that the US has only one Iranian-American, Mansoor Arbabsiar, in custody --- about whom no one really knows much --- and the courts have yet to decide whether he is guilty or not, it really is a stretch to blame the highest echelons of the Iranian regime for orchestrating the attack. Yet this is precisely what Washington did, not in the formal complaint against Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, his supposed Revolutionary Guards handler, but in the declaration of indictments against three senior Revolutionary Guards officers, including the head of the force, for orchestrating the attack.

This is not a question of capability --- the regime has shown in the past that it is capable of violence --- but of complicity. Without presenting further evidence, the US Government cannot expect its narrative of confirmed guilt to take hold.

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Libya (and Beyond) Special: Paradigm Shift --- What the Experts Get Wrong Tells A Much Bigger Story

There is a larger problem with the way the West is approaching this issue. The old power structures still exist, but all evidence points to them fading. Regimes are falling apart, though remnants remain. Tribalism is giving way to unity, though old divisions still threaten that unity. Al Qa'eda, in almost 20 years, has failed to do what the Arab Spring has done in 250 days. Iran, Israel, weapons of mass destruction, Western imperialism...all of the old bugbears have proven false alarms. They still exist, but their importance, and influence, is fading quickly.

Problems persist in Tunisia and Egypt, and questions remain about Libya, but what is unquestionable is the dedication and spirit of the youth of these countries, a brave and defiant youth that will not sit down while the old powers hijack their revolutions. Perhaps there are still forces that wish to co-opt the Arab Spring, but the indications are that these forces are weaker than their predecessors. Yes, these movements are rooted in a new way of thinking, or at least a new embodiment of an old way of thinking --- through the persuit of equity, freedom, democracy, and unity, the people will triumph, not the power- hungry.

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Syria Feature: A US Plan to Replace Assad? (Ignatius)

As the Obama administration steps up its support for regime change in Syria, the Arab Spring is moving into what could be its hottest phase. The puzzle is how to help the Syrian opposition gain power without foreign military intervention — and without triggering sectarian massacres inside the country.

For months, as protests mounted in Syria, President Obama waited to see if President Bashar al-Assad could deliver on his talk of reform. Last week, the administration all but gave up on him and switched gears — and began working actively for a transition to a democratic regime.

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Afghanistan Feature: Obama to Announce Plans for Troop Withdrawal --- But How Many and How Fast? (Landler/Cooper)

President Obama plans to announce his decision on the scale and pace of troop withdrawals from Afghanistan in a speech on Wednesday evening, an administration official said Monday.

As he closes in on a decision, another official said, Mr. Obama is considering options that range from a Pentagon-backed proposal to pull out only 5,000 troops this year to an aggressive plan to withdraw within 12 months all 30,000 troops the United States deployed to Afghanistan as part of the surge in December 2009.

Under another option, a third official said, Mr. Obama would announce a final date for the withdrawal of all the surge forces sometime in 2012, but leave the timetable for incremental reductions up to commanders in the field — much as he did in drawing down troops after the surge in Iraq.

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The Latest from Iran (11 June): The Eve of the Anniversary

2120 GMT: This video, claiming to be footage of rooftop "Allahu Akbar (God is Great)" chants in Tehran tonight, is actually from two years ago (hat tip to reader Bozorg, who noted this in our Comments section):

2005 GMT: Opposition Watch. Mousavi advisor Ardeshir Amir Arjomand has hit back with a challenge to the regime, "You are saying that protests are the right of free peoples, except you don't think the same for Syria and Iran? Well we want and deserve the same thing! If you're telling the truth, don't crackdown today and let people peacefully express themselves, which is their right."

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Bahrain and Human Rights: How Regime Supporters Sent a US Diplomat Home (Piven)

side the US embassy in Manama.

They carried signs that said "Give me liberty or give me death" and "Stop supporting dictators".

Ludovic Hood, a human rights specialist in the political section of the US embassy, offered doughnuts to the protesters --- a quintessentially American handout.

In response, a local cleric opined: "These sweets are a good gesture, but we hope it is translated into practical action."...

Those protesters did not expect that, just two months later, Hood would be shipped back to the US from his post in Manama --- prematurely, some say --- after having been threatened on Bahraini pro-government websites.

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Bahrain Snapshot: Obama Administration's Ineffectual Plea to Crown Prince "Please Change"

The significance of this article by Mark Landler of The New York Times is not in the immediate story of Obama Administration officials meeting the Crown Prince of Bahrain in Washington this week but in the political reality beyond the encounter.

The Administration's strategy of persuasion, alongside some mildly critical rhetoric, is unlikely to achieve much, if anything, in Bahrain. Indeed, as Landler indicates below, the Crown Prince's visit may be a political sideshow --- in mid-March, his approach of engagement of some elements of the opposition to discuss reform was quashed by other members of the ruling family, and he has struggled to regain influence since then.

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