Iran Snapshot: Tehran's Lesson for Egypt --- The Intimidation Can Never Stop

On a US-based website backing the Iranian Government --- in an item reinforcing Tehran's line that the uprising of Egypt's people as a victory for Iran's leadership in the Middle East --- a comment catches the eye:

A key difference between the current protests in Egypt and the post-election protests in Iran in 2009. In Egypt, the people have not had an opportunity to elect their leaders in a democratic election.

In Iran, they did.

Hmm.... My reaction may have been affected because I saw this after covering the news of the detention of Hossein Karroubi, the son of the prominent opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi, and dealing all day with the execution of the Dutch-Iranian national Zahra Bahrami. However, I think that there may be another explanation for the persistence of the Iranian regime beyond "free elections".

Our German Bureau points us to an explanation, given by the Supreme Leader to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in a cartoon:

Mubarak: "How should I get out of this mess?"
Supreme Leader: "Nothing, give them their rights as we do."

Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Restoring Order?

0615 GMT: Here's the sign that we have moved from Sunday into Monday --- a Cairo observer reports, "Good morning. I could still hear chanting at 4AM. I could still hear chanting at 8AM. People are roaming Tahrir square now."

A BBC correspondent reports "small numbers" of police on the streets of Cairo.

0600 GMT: Laura Rozen of Politico gives some insight into how the US Administration is now doing crisis management on Egypt:

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Egypt Analysis: Who is Doing the Looting and Why?

The world wants stability. The police/thugs are destabilizing the country. Mubarak will use the Army to bring the stability back. Of course no one would remember how he slaughtered Egyptians and quelled a popular uprising because all of that does not matter when stability is concerned. Mubarak will imprison thousands and kill hundreds. Then you can say good-bye to another revolution in Egypt.

The question that will decide the fate of this uprising is: Will the protesters buy the narrative that they need protection from the ‘thugs’ and should go home and let the army deal with them or will they will see through the lies and keep asking for Mubarak’s departure?

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Egypt Analysis: A Beginner's Guide to "How Did It Come To This?" (Iskander)

Even if these protests do not force Mubarak out, they have shattered the illusion of his credibility. Compromises or reforms will be unlikely to satisfy the protesters, which means that Egypt, and by extension the United States, will no longer be able to take the Egyptian people's passivity for granted.

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Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Mubarak Still in Power?

2247 GMT: A German news agency is claiming 19 private planes have departed Cairo Airport carrying Egyptian and Arab businessmen and families.

2245 GMT: Tens of thousands of protesters are still in central Cairo, with food being organised for them.

2240 GMT: A senior police officer has been kidnapped in Damietta, 200kilometres/120miles north of Cairo. Tarek Hammad is Head of Damietta Security.

2230 GMT: Escalating story tonight of at least one sniper in the Ministry of Interior picking off protesters outside the building. Witnesses are saying 10 to 15 people have been shot dead and dozens have been wounded. Dr Muhammad Hassan tells Al Jazeera that dead protestors from the area are flooding the makeshift field hospital.

2225 GMT: Al Jazeera reports the death of Major General Mohammed El-Batran, head of the Investigative Unit at Fayoum Central Jail in middle Egypt, 130 kilometres (80 miles) southwest of Cairo. About 700 prisoners have fled.

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Egypt Snap Analysis: The Army Allows Mubarak a Moment to Defy the Burning

Last night Mubarak stood almost alone. And what no one was quite saying is that his fate is not in his hands. The immediate issue now is whether the military will hold the line for him and whether the protesters will accept that. 

Unless there is something more from the President --- not just some economic payouts to the people but a clear sign that he and his son Gamal will be giving up the prospect of continued power, with promises of significant reform in the political system --- the demonstrations will continue. And at that point, the question will be whether the Army sides with those demonstrations or turns its guns upon them.

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Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Black Hole or Another Day of Revolution

So there is a 13-hour curfew imposed in Egypt, right? What that means is that people should remain at home, there shouldn't be any gatherings and police should be in-charge of the street. Instead, the police are missing and people are swarming through the capital Cairo. The situation is made worse by opportunistic looters. Several people in Egypt are reporting that shopkeepers are gathering relatives and friends to protect their businesses from looters in isolated areas of the city.

Does that make sense?

0307 GMT: And now the mother of all disclosures?

The Daily Telegraph quotes a Wikileaks diplomatic dispatch with the following story:

The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.

On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.

Read the full story on the Daily Telegraph here.

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Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: A Day to Breathe?

0547 GMT: Scott Lucas will now be starting our LiveBlog updates for Friday. I will be back in 10 hours or so. 

0513 GMT: A small ray of hope emerges in the form of a twitter user from inside Egypt after the massive internet blackout. Amr El Beleidy, co-founder of touringa.com, tweets from Cairo: 

Until now mobinil & vodafone mobile networks working, and data connection on mobinil and noor dsl working #jan25

I have access to twitter and facebook with no problems / no proxies#Jan25

Sorry my mobinil data connection is not working, phone had shifted to wifi! Sorry about that! #Jan25 #BeginnersMistake

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Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: The Day After The "Day of Revolution"

0005 GMT: The situation in Suez has become further tense. Reports coming in from Egypt suggest that the city has effectively been cut-off from the rest of the country. Landlines, cell phones and internet are down. People continue to protest in the city and there have been sporadic reports of clashes, injuries and at least 2 deaths which cannot be confirmed yet.

0002 GMT: RNN reports that 5,000 protesters are holding a sit-in in El-Geish Street in Suez. 

0000 GMT: Egyptian blogger and activist Rowand Helmii, who has been arrested by police on her way home, has her cell phone and is tweeting from inside a police car in Cairo. 

I was arrested around ( 15 mayo ) if it helps I was heading home;#jan25

@Noor1Noor2 I have no idea what my exact location is but here is my full name rowand sameh hassan mohammed helmii

Thank you guys so much for all the support don't worry I'll get out in a bit won't be late and gonna be at the protest tomorrow ;) :) #jan25

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Tunisia (and Beyond) LiveBlog: A Day to Watch in Cairo?

2210 GMT: It is now after midnight in Egypt, and we are taking a few hours' break. We leave you for the moment with this image from tonight in Tahrir Square in Cairo,as protesters move away from a tear gas canister:

2200 GMT: Tonight's statement from protesters calling for the fall of the Egyptian Government and for a continued sit-in:

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