The Latest from Iran (8 November): That Ahmadinejad Speech....

2110 GMT: Currency Watch. The Iranian rial continues to slide against the US dollar. Having broken the 13000:1 barrier for the first time this summer, it sank from 13100:1 on Sunday to 13280:1 today, also falling against the British pound and Euro.

Meanwhile, economic expert Bijan Abdi has sharply criticised, "Our benefit from the Year of Economic Jihad" --- declared by the Supreme Leader in March --- "is next to nothing." He blamed the Ahmadinejad Administration and Parliament for the failure.

2100 GMT: That Ahmadinejad Speech. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has pushed back hard against President Ahmadinejad.

Without naming the President, Larijani said, "We are confronted with political 'lumpenism', politicians should not agitate society mentally."

The Speaker used the derogatory term "laat-baazi", referring to the indecent behaviour of a rascal, as he indicated, "A certain political person has not enough manners or honour."

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The Latest from Iran (7 November): The Week of Dangerously Missing the Point

See also Iran Special: Decoding Ahmadinejad --- Did He Just Declare the "Final Confrontation" Within the Establishment?
Iran Analysis: The Week in "Objective" US Journalism --- War, War, Secret War, Future War, War
Iran Feature: Explaining the Israeli "War Talk" --- Look to the Domestic Politics...And Who Wins
The Latest from Iran (6 November): Beyond the Israeli Diversion

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2015 GMT: The Battle Within. Reports in the Iran media today that the Supreme Leader has ordered his aides to review the "faults" in the Constitution --- is this another signal of a move to a Prime Minister chosen by Parliament, rather than a President chosen by the people?

1945 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. MP Emad Afrough, a former Ahmadinejad supporter, has criticised the President for attacking the judiciary, saying that Ahmadinejad apparently believes that his sensational approach is the only way to stay in power.

Afrough added the jibe that the President seems to "believe that running around, physical presence, and scandalous speeches are 'work'".

Journalist Mehdi Mahdavi-Azad offers the analysis that Ahmadinejad has challenged the Supreme Leader and attacked the Larijani brothers --- one the Speaker of Parliament, another the head of judiciary --- intimidating them with claims of the files of a huge land robbery.

Mahdavi-Azad parallels our analysis when he assesses that, when Ahmadinejad had control over Iran's intelligence services, he sorted out large amounts of secret files about his political opponents and is now using the information to contain them.

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Iran Analysis: The Week in "Objective" US Journalism --- War, War, Secret War, Future War, War

We are watching an international media which is captivated by the chatter about an Israeli attack on Tehran and about a supposedly doom-laden report on Iran's nuclear programme. Indeed, some in that media are on the point of irresponsibility stoking confrontation, even armed confrontation.

The number one culprit is David Sanger of The New York Times, who uses the exalted podium of a "Week in Review" piece to declare that War may be the only option, "The big hitch in...containment strategies is that they are completely useless if Iran ever slips a bomb, or even some of its newly minted uranium fuel, to a proxy — Hezbollah, Hamas or some other terrorist group — raising the problem of ascertaining a bomb’s return address."

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Iran Video: Full Ahmadinejad Interview with NBC News

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

See also Iran Latest: Ahmadinejad "Unilateral Pardon" for US Hikers Bauer & Fattal in 48 Hours
Iran MediaFail: America's NBC News Proudly Presents "A Day in the Life of Ahmadinejad"

This is effectively a 45-minute political advertisement by President Ahmadinejad.

NBC News has paid a high price for its access to the President and the "exclusive" that Ahmadinejad will give a "unilateral pardon" to US hikers Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, sentenced to eight years for espionage. (It is an interesting question whether NBC knew in advance, as a sweetener to do the interview, of the President's plan or at least was told that Ahmadinejad would make an "important announcement".) The US channel agreed to an advance, glowing profile of "A Day in the Life of the President". I am certain that the list of questions was submitted to Ahmadinejad's office in advance, and I strongly suspect that NBC agreed that it would ask only those questions, with no follow-ups on Ahmadinejad's points. At points, interviewer Ann Curry is embarrassingly deferential --- note, for example, her obsequious, almost apologetic, introduction of a question (at the 18:00 mark) of a question about Iran's co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. At no point does she interrupt to challenge or even clarify Ahmadinejad's answers, which last up to five minutes without pause.

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The Latest from Iran (19 July): Assessing the Opposition

1950 GMT: Clamping Down on a Cleric. Security forces have raided the home of Ayatollah Amjad while the cleric is on a three-day trip to Malaysia.

Ayatollah Amjad has been increasingly critical of the Government since January.

1935 GMT: Elections Watch. Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman for the Guardian Council, has pulled back from a blanket ban on the reformist parties Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, saying that their dissolution has not been declared by the courts.

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The Latest from Iran (31 May): The Political Battle Over Control of Oil

2025 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Hojatoleslam Mojtaba Zolnour, the Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, has told a university audience that they should beware of the attempt by the Hojjatieh Association to influence the Government.

Hojjatieh is a Shia organisation, founded in 1953, that was forced to disband by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1983 over views about the imminent return of the Hidden Imam. There have been numerous claims that President Ahmadinejad and his key advisors like Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai are secret members.

2000 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Iran and India have failed to agree a method for Delhi's payment for oil exprots from Tehran.

A delegation from Iran met officials from different Indian ministries to find a resolution for the five-month-old issue, sparked by international sanctions on Iran's oil products.

India is reportedly mulling using multiple currencies, including the rupee, to pay for the crude oil. Iran is Delhi's second-largest supplier after Saudi Arabia.

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WikiLeaks: Israel Bombed Syria Nuclear Reactor in 2007 (YNet)

A confidential cable sent on April 25, 2008 by then-US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to State Department representatives worldwide states that "on September 6 2007, Israel destroyed the nuclear reactor built by Syria secretly, apparently with North Korea's help."

The document is in fact a first official and detailed confirmation of the attack, starting with the intelligence collected before the strike, the cooperation between Israel and the United States, the troubling and harsh conclusions shared by both countries, the Israeli government's decision to bomb Syria and the fear that President Bashar Assad would launch a war in response.

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Iran Text and Analysis: The Latest Report on Tehran's Nuclear Programme

These conclusions in the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear programme are far from dramatic. Much of the wording could have been taken from any IAEA finding of the last two years: there is no evidence that Tehran is shifting uranium to make a nuclear weapon, but the Agency cannot be sure because it has not gotten access to all areas of the programme. 

No, what is notable about the IAEA report is the "spin" being put on it by media, fed by unnamed officials. On almost every occasion in the last two to three years, reporters from leading US newspapers would have trumpeted that the IAEA had shown Iran was on the verge of material for at least one bomb in the next year and that Tehran was guilty of hiding this effort.

Yesterday, however, that guilty verdict was missing.

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The Latest from Iran (23 November): More Arrests --- With a Twist?

1930 GMT: Close to Impeachment? Really? This morning (see 0609 GMT) we noted a Wall Street Journal story about the growing dispute between Parliament and President, commending it for noting the conflict but calling it "exaggerated". Here are the dramatic paragraphs:

Iran's parliament revealed it planned to impeach President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but refrained under orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exposing a deepening division within the regime....

Conservative newspapers reported on Monday that lawmakers have started a motion to collect the 74 signatures needed to openly debate impeachment. Mousa Reza Servati, the head of the parliament's budgetary committee, was quoted as saying 40 lawmakers, including Mr. Servati, have signed the motion.

The move to remove the president from office marks the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic that parliament has discussed impeachment of a president. Though the legislature is backed by the Iranian constitution, lawmakers can't drive Mr. Ahmadinejad from office without the supreme leader's agreement.

Here is how EA reported the story on Monday: "About 40 lawmakers have signed a petition, sponsored by Ali Motahari, Alireza Zakani, Tavakoli, and Elyas Naderan to summon Ahmadinejad to the Majlis. At least 74 signatures are necessary for the President to be commanded to appear."

Note the important difference in emphasis. Summoning the President to answer questions in Parliament is not debate of impeachment. Instead, if Ahmadinejad's answers are not satisfactory, then the Parliament can take further action, asking him for better responses. If those are still not suitable, then impeachment may be an option.

That is a long way from the showdown portrayed in the Wall Street Journal. And it certainly does not mean that the Supreme Leader has intervened to block the President's removal.

We are now checking our interpretation, as the Journal story is being repeated as gospel truth by sources such as the BBC and Joe Klein of Time magazine.

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Iran Analysis: No Liberty --- The Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Diversion...Again

0645 GMT: Sigh....

Yesterday we began with a letter from detained activist Majid Tavakoli to Iranian students, a letter which I think articulately --- and poignantly --- set out the extent of the Government's repression but held out hope: "Despotism's palace is shaking on its foundations."

At no point did Tavakoli, sitting in Rajai Shahr Prison, expend his ink on Iran's nuclear programme or its relations with the West. The emergency and confrontation was much closer to home, and the aspiration had little to do with uranium: "I know that we will be together to joyfully celebrate liberty."

This morning opens far differently, thousands of miles away. Phillip Stephens of The Financial Times writes an account of discussions amongst the West's best and brightest at the Aspen European Strategy Forum, "Caught Between Bombing Iran and an Iranian Bomb".

"Iran" is not necessarily about a day-by-day fretting about the Bomb and Apocalypse. That scenario only feeds into the rhetoric of a regime all too ready to deal with more important matters --- for example, the suppression of dissident --- by holding up the US and its allies as menaces ready to strike Tehran.

No, rather than offer the easy answer or prescription, "It's all about nukes", a day-by-day assessment might begin with regard to the Iranian people and their political, economic, social, and religious situation. Far from Aspen's lavish banquets and its chit-chat, that might be the best way to approach Majid Tavakoli and hundreds --- thousands --- of others like him.

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