The Latest from Iran (20 February): A Meeting with the Supreme Leader?

See also Syria Audio Feature: Iranian Rappers Sing for the People of Homs
Iran Snapshot: The Economy --- "How Am I Going to Live Like This?"
The Latest from Iran (19 February): "The Islamic Republic Does Not Need a Supreme Leader"

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2225 GMT: Apologies for limited service today, as EA staff have been travelling and giving presentations. We will be back from 0600 GMT with latest news.

1125 GMT: Diplomacy Watch. In contrast to (or possibly alongside) the military posturing, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi continues to pave the way for nuclear talks with the US and other powers:

Neither European countries nor Iran can disregard the need for mutual cooperation because we are both complementary to each other, Salehi told reporters on the sidelines of a two-day conference on relations between Iran and the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) in Tehran on Monday.

The top Iranian diplomat further said that enhanced economic ties with all countries is among the priorities of Iran's foreign policy, stressing that Tehran attaches importance to bolstering relations with neighboring countries as well as the member states of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO).

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The Latest from Iran (1 February): Is the Supreme Leader Fretting About Syria?

A poster encouraging Iranians to demonstrate publicly on 25 Bahman (14 February)

See also The Latest from Iran (31 January): "Democracy and Freedom Are A Big Lie"

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2019 GMT: Food Watch. Continuing problems with grain shipments to Iran....

The news that 400,000 tonnes of grain has been held up on 10 ships outside Iranian ports has been followed by confirmation that traders are no longer booking cargoes on Iranian ships to transport grain exports from Ukraine because of difficulties with payments following European Union sanctions.

"The indication is that Iranian flag ships would not be welcomed (at Ukrainian ports) that is the guidance that is being given." one trade source said.

Another source said, "They will not load vessels bound for Iranian destinations or Iranian ships. It is not entirely clear if this has come from the government and it looks like companies have to make their own decisions on what to do. EU sanctions are very much part of the considerations."

Ukraine's Transport Ministry said there were no restrictions on Iranian ships. "Nobody knows anything about this," a ministry spokesman said. "All our ports are open to foreign ships. There are no restrictions, nor can there be any."

However, a grain trader said, "The trade in Iranian food is getting extremely difficult as the impact of the sanctions is still developing each day. Ukraine has been a leading supplier of grain to Iran. Now it appears Iranian buyers will only be able to buy with delivery to Ukrainian ports and will face further difficulties in arranging shipments."

Ukraine exported about 445,000 tonnes of grain to Iran in the first half of the 2011/12 season. This included 92,000 tonnes of feed barley and 357,600 tonnes of feed maize.

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Iran Prescription: Oh My God, Tehran Almost Has The Bomb! (Repeat as Necessary)

Iran is about a year away from developing a nuclear bomb! That is not me getting  hysterical --- it's US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in an interview on American television:

"The consensus is that, if they decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort in order to deliver that weapon."

Panetta is not the only Cassandra. His statement echoes that made by Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak last November about the 'when' of Iran's supposed nuclear weapons program.

All very worrying. Just as it has been worrying on every occasion over the last 7 1/2 years when Iran was on the verge of The Bomb.

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The Latest from Iran (29 January): Future Election, Past Election, House Arrest

A Comment on the Currency Situation: President Ahmadinejad vs. the US Dollar

See also Iran Update: Guardian Council Approves New Islamic Penal Code
The Latest from Iran (28 January): Back to the Battle Within

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2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More than 140 writers, journalists, artists, and activists have issued a statement condemning the new wave of repression and arrests, noting in particular the detention of prominent literary translator Mohammad Soleimani Nia.

Soleimani Nia was seized on 10 January and taken to an unknown location.

2130 GMT: Execution Watch. International media have noticed, from Iranian outlets such as Fars, that the death sentence has been confirmed for Iranian-Canadian web designer Saeed Malekpour.

In fact, the news is old --- Malekpour was condemned at least 11 days ago by the Revolutionary Court in Tehran, which has confirmed the punishment for several bloggers and website operators in recent weeks.

Malekpour was arrested in October 2008 and charged with disseminating obscene materials via the Web.

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Iran Analysis: Re-Assessing the Explosion at the Revolutionary Guards Base

On 12 November, an explosion at the Malard base of Iran's Revolutionary Guards killed between 17 and 37 people and damaged a number of buildings at the complex west of Tehran.

Questions immediately surfaced and have yet to be answered: what was the exact cause of the blast? Who, if anyone, was behind it? How significant was the effect on Iran's military programmes?

An article published by David Sanger and William Broad of The New York Times, "Explosion Seen as Big Setback to Iran's Missile Program", offers some clues. It needs to be read, however, not as investigative journalism but as an outlet for US and Israeli officials to put out both their assessments and their political manoeuvres around the event.

Those officials bring us no closer to the answer of whether Washington, West Jerusalem, or internal Iranian groups caused the explosion. You would not expect the sources to admit US-Israeli involvement, and the American officials settle for the line of "an accident".

What is significant, however, is the apparent conclusion of the officials that the blast was a serious blow to Iran's research and development of missiles, killing a senior commander overseeing the programme.

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The Latest from Iran (19 November): The International Front

1810 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Turkish Front). More fencing between Ankara and Tehran, even as Iran tries to get Turkish support on issues such as its nuclear programme....

Iranian MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has said "Iranian air forces are strong enough" when he was asked if Turkey could use Iranian air space for "war against [the Kurdish insurgenct group] PKK".

Boroujerdi was in Ankara on Friday for talks with Turkish officials.

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Iran Propaganda 101: Nanodiamonds, Nukes, "Western Officials", and The Washington Post

A discussion, including David Albright and Karim Sadjadpour, on a Sunday talk show about the IAEA report and Iran's nuclear programme

See also Iran Feature: Did Unnamed Officials Use the Media to Turn Nanodiamonds into Nuclear Bombs?

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A classic case study in how information/propaganda --- choose the word according to your perspective --- circulates between Western governments, supportive media, and "think tanks"....

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Iran Snap Analysis: The US Strikes a Military Pose

Will these steps make a real difference in the regional jostling with Tehran, let alone Washington's drive for international isolation of Iran? I doubt it --- the significant game is the context for political influence amidst shifting circumstances, as the events across North Africa and the Middle East should have brought home to Washington this year --- but when in doubt....

Strike a pose.

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Iran Special Analysis (Part 2): The IAEA's Nuclear Report --- Not All Sources Are Equal

If the burden on Iran, in the eyes of the IAEA, has been to show the level of co-operation to meet questions and assuage doubts, then the burden on the IAEA --- given that "proof", of either the absence or presence of a militarised nuclear programme, is likely to be beyond reach --- was to at least sweep away some of the cynicism over its effort by establishing a clear record of its enquiry.

The Agency may have cleared the low bar set by The New York Times, for whom any assertion was going to constitute "meticulous sourcing", but it has not gone much higher.

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Iran Special Analysis (Part 1): The Nuclear Report --- "May" Is Not "Definitely"

Let's start with the "smoking gun" statement from the IAEA that does not exactly smoke: 

Prior to the end of 2003....activities [which may be related to a militarised nuclear effort] took place under a structured programme. There are also indications that some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing. 

"May" is not definitely. In the analogy of the BBC's Paul Danahar, drawing from the language of a Reuters report, "If the answer to the question 'Do you think she likes me?' was 'strong indications that she might possibly", I would not be off to buy a ring."

But let's examine "may" in the context of the IAEA's 15-page annex, which in the spin of unnamed officials to media this week, became "definitely".

Click to read more ...