Moscow Nuclear Talks, 18-19 JuneThe file consists of three major sections:
1. Iran's Package of Proposals to the world Powers
2. Evidence and documents proving that uranium enrichment is Iran's inalienable right despite the western allegations
3. And Iran's response to the proposals offered by the world powers
Throughout this spring's nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, Germany, France, Russia, China), I have used the metaphor of the game of "chicken", in which two drivers aim their cars at each other and accelerate. The question, from Istanbul in April to Baghdad in May to Moscow this week, has been whether one or both sides would swerve to get an agreement on Tehran's uranium enrichment or whether both were preparing for impact.
The past 48 hours, for all the muddle during the third round of negotiations, gave us an answer.
The Iranians, after taking an unsuccesfully vague line in Baghdad, were ready to hit the brakes. The US and Europe are not --- if Iran will not give way, it should brace itself for the crash.
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The Latest from Iran (9 June): Spiralling to a Nuclear Breakdown
1627 GMT: CyberWatch. Kamal Hadianfar, the head of a special police cyber-unit, has repeated that Iran is poised to launch a crackdown on Virtual Private Networks.
VPNs use a secure protocol to encrypt users' data, circumvent online blocks by Iranian authorities.
"It has been agreed that a commission (within the cyber police) be formed to block illegal VPNs," Hadianfar said. He claimed "about 20 to 30%" of Iran's 36 million web users employed VPNs.
Hadianfar said legal VPNs would only be used by "the likes of airlines, ministries, (state) organisations and banks", and these would be monitored.
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The Latest from Iran (8 June): Preparing for the Fallout
2032 GMT: CyberWatch. Iranian police have claimed that computer experts have tracked an April cyber-attack on Ministry of Oil computers to two IP addresses in the US.
Police General Seyed Kamal Hadianfar said the US should disclose the identities of the two IPs to Iran so that the country can identify those who have embarked on the act of sabotage and file a lawsuit against them.
1649 GMT: Economy Watch. A sign of nerves that the nuclear talks are collapsing? The Tehran Stock Exchange has fallen 270 points today to 26365.
See also Iran Analysis: US Officials on Nuke Talks "We Have A Cunning Plan" (Not Really.)
The Latest from Iran (7 June): Nuclear Talks Fallout
1705 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The International Atomic Energy Agency has said that no progress was made in "disappointing" talks with Iranian officials today at at IAEA headquarters in Vienna.
Herman Nackaerts, the IAEA's global head of inspections, said no further talks had been set.
1642 GMT: Loyalty Watch. Ali Saeedi, Ayatollah Khamenei's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, has said that the Islamic Republic's leadership is exercised on the three levels of prophets, Imams, and velayat-e faqih, the system in which the Supreme Leader's rule is paramount, that are equivalent.
Saeedi continued that obeying velayat-e faqih is required (vajeb) and that religious rule has no value without the Supreme Leader.
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The Latest from Iran (5 June): The House Arrests
2028 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Hossein Alavi, a member of the student alumni group Advar Tahkim Vahdat and a supporter of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been arrested after being summoned to Zanjan’s Intelligence Bureau.
1913 GMT: Devious West Watch. Sohrab Salehi, the head of the Basij Professors Organization has asserted that, by imposing sanctions, the West wants to present the Supreme Leader as the main cause of inflation in Iran.
Look for more of this in the near-future from higher-level officials. If the nuclear talks collapse --- which I think is probable, given today's signals --- and when the European Union's cut-off of imports of Iranian oil takes effect from 1 July, the Islamic Republic's officials will need someone to break for the escalating economic tensions in Iran. Since that "someone" cannot be Ayatollah Khamenei, the "West" will have the lead role of villain.
The Iranian belief --- if it is is genuine --- that it still has some leverage because of European weakness and fear is significant. It indicates that Tehran will persist with a defiant approach in Moscow. If it even chooses to address the nuclear issue as central, it will restate its demand not only for some enrichment of uranium on its soil, but for enrichment to 20% --- the level beyond bounds for the 5+1 Powers. It will refuse any reduction of activity at the Fordoo enrichment activity, let alone the closure demanded by the US and the Europeans. It will offer no concession, ahead of an easing of sanctions, over inspections and safeguards by the IAEA.
The Islamic Republic will offer none of this because it believes that it can win the game of diplomatic "chicken". The Moscow talks will break up with no advance.
Two weeks later, it will be 1 July and the imposition of the European Union's cut-off of Iranian oil. Then we will see if propaganda and mis-perception gives way to cold economic reality.
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Friday's The Latest from Iran (25 May): On to The "Last Chance" Nuclear Talks in Moscow
1605 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Laura Rozen adds valuable detail to our news and analysis of the nuclear talks in Baghdad. She describes how there nearly was no agreement to another meeting in Moscow --- some of the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) were pushing for a harder line than others on the language to be offered to the Iranians in a statement summarising Baghdad's discussions and looking to the future.
In the end, the European Union's Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1, worked out a compromise text. In her press conference at the end of the meetings, she said, "Significant gaps remain" between Iran and the 5+1, but there was enough common ground for another round of talks.
Ashton reportedly used the Iraqi hosts and the Chinese and Russian delegations to ensure the acceptance of the Iranians, who proposed Astana in Kazakhstan, Beijing, or Moscow as the next venue.
See also Iran Special: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After Baghdad Talks
Iran Snap Analysis: A Way Out of Pessimism for the Nuclear Talks?
The Latest from Iran (23 May): Nuclear Talks in Baghdad
EU's Catherine Ashton & Iran's Saeed Jalili1925 GMT: Nuclear Watch Special. Back from a break for a run to find the confirmation by the European Union's Catherine Ashton --- see statement in separate feature --- that there will be a third set of nuclear discussions, in Moscow on 18-19 June, between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China).
There is much more to the statement, however. We will have a special analysis tomorrow, but note for now:
1. Ashton tipped off the large gap between the 5+1 Powers and Iran on approach and proposals. The US and Europe effectively said, "We will only talk easing of sanctions after you give us what we want on your uranium enrichment." Iran said at the same time, "Ease the sanctions and then we will consider giving you what you want."
2. This gap was so wide that the Iranians were on the point of walking away from the talks on Wednesday night. Ashton's emergency session with Iran's Saeed Jalili --- almost two hours --- plus intervention from China and Russia probably averted that breakdown.
3. Moscow as a location for the next talks is a concession to Iran for continuing to talk. So is the date --- the discussions come two weeks before the European Union is scheduled to ban imports of Iranian oil.
4. But Moscow is now "make or break". Either the US and Europe find enough to reverse the 1 July ban on Iranian oil, or the negotiations will break down with Iran's declaration that the West will accept nothing less than its capitulation.
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Yukiya Amano and Saeed Jalili2009 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Iran continues to be upbeat about tomorrow's nuclear discussions, “Tehran is optimistic that the Baghdad talks would be a good start to promote cooperation in international, regional and nuclear issues."
However, this inside story from Laura Rozen and Barbara Slavin of Al Monitor may put a damper on expectations:
The United States and its negotiating partners have agreed on a detailed confidence-building proposal to offer to Iran at nuclear negotiations due to get underway Wednesday in Baghdad. The proposed package is an updated version of a 2009 uranium fuel swap proposal that takes into account Iran’s progress in enriching uranium, American, Russian and European diplomats said.
While the details of the proposed package have not been made public, Western officials told Al Monitor that the package does not include sanctions relief at this stage.
Iranian officials and State media have made clear that a significant easing of US-led sanctions, including a pause on the European Union's suspension of Iranian oil imports --- due to start 1 July --- must be on the table.
This is excluded from the proposal put out via Rozen:
Instead, the United States and its P5+1 partners will offer fuel for Tehran’s Research Reactor (TRR) plus safety upgrades to the plant, which is of 1960s vintage. Also potentially on the table: new research reactors that use lower level 3.5 percent enriched uranium, safety upgrades for Iran’s one functioning nuclear power plant at Bushehr and spare parts for its accident-plagued fleet of civilian airliners.
In return, Iran must stop producing uranium enriched to 20 percent and halt activities at Fordow, an enrichment facility built into a mountain near Qom. It is not clear whether Iran would also have to send out its stockpile of more than 100 kg of the fuel.
A "current American official sets out the line, "If we talk substantively on elements of a deal and agree to meet again in three weeks, Baghdad will have been a success. Just hope the Iranians are not deluding themselves they are going to get sanctions relief now—that’s not going to happen at this stage.”
Sunday, July 8, 2012 at 8:20