Lebanon Special: Queries over the Special Tribunal, Hariri, and the Accusation against Hezbollah

Claudio Gallo writes for EA:

The search for truth about the Hariri case has once more sunk into a poisonous marsh threatening another Lebanese civil war. Hezbollah continues to maintain that there is Israeli hand behind the attack and that the Tribunal is politicised. In August, the Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah introduced TV footage, apparently stolen from an Israeli drone, which seemed to show surveillance by Israeli intelligence of the route of  Hariri’s car. The issue now is whether Hezbollah goes beyond accusation to launch a political move pressuring or even taking control of the Lebanese Government.

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Lebanon Special: The CBC Video and Article "Who Killed Rafik Hariri?"

Evidence gathered by Lebanese police and, much later, the UN, points overwhelmingly to the fact that the assassins were from Hezbollah, the militant Party of God that is largely sponsored by Syria and Iran. CBC News has obtained cellphone and other telecommunications evidence that is at the core of the case.

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Lebanon: Hezbollah and the "Zombie Tribunal" (Lynch)

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon is reportedly set to soon indict several top Hezbollah leaders for the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri. The expected indictments have brought Lebanon to the brink of crisis, while the Obama administration has rushed to express its support for the STL and to deliver an additional $10 million to its investigation. Most of the commentary thus far has focused on the potential impact of its anticipated anti-Hezbollah ruling, whether it might lead to war or how it might affect Hezbollah's participation in the government. But lost in that admittedly quite important shuffle is a more basic question: Does the STL have any credibility at this point? If not, how does that lack of credibility shape the likely political fallout of its indictment? And should the Obama administration really be hitching its wagon to a Bush-era zombie which might drag Lebanon into an unnecessary crisis?

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Lebanon Interview: State Department's Feltman Plays with Beirut as a Pawn

A depressing interview in The Washington Post with the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Jeffrey D. Feltman.

It's depressing because almost none of Feltman's words --- and thus, I presume, the State Department's attention --- are about Lebanon. There's no recognition here of the concerns of the Lebanese people, of the relationship amongst Shia, Sunni, Christian, and Druze communities, of the economic, social, and religious issues in the country, of the initiatives to bring some agreement amongst factions and thus some progress. Indeed, the only Lebanese whom Feltman specifically notes --- apart from a fleeting reference to President Michel Suleiman (not even a mention for Prime Minister Saad Hariri) --- are "Hezbollah".

That is because Feltman's concern is not about Lebanon but about Syria and Iran, to the point where he drops all pretence of "Lebanon" at one point and talks about the situation in Iraq. The interviewer is no better: note the concluding question, "So you don't think Lebanon is about to fall into Iran's hands?":

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Lebanon: Hezbollah, the Special Tribunal, and the Power of the Multitude (Khatib)

On Wednesday, two male Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigators --- an Australian and a Frenchman --- visited the office of gynecologist Iman Sharara in Southern Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, after making an appointment with the purpose of examining the records of at least 14 people who had visited her clinic since 2003. The investigators, accompanied by a female translator, were subsequently mobbed by 150 women who surrounded them, violently attacked them, and snatched a briefcase that one of them was carrying which contained a laptop and official STL documents.

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Israel: Settlements Flat Out, Netanyahu's Jewish State, and the "Partnership to Peace"

The building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank in the last three weeks, since the 10-month moratorium on construction ended, has been more than four times faster than in the last two years. Still, the building of 544 homes "has [had] no real effect on the map of a possible (peace) agreement", according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He said on the 15th anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin:

You were skeptical and careful, respectful and thoughtful, and you were determined to continue down a road leading to peace. I am a partner to your approach that we must always continue pushing for peace.

In the 15 years that passed, fundamental Islam has strengthened. It won the elections in Gaza, took over southern Lebanon, and has threatened the United States.

So, while persisting for peace, one has to recognise who is behind the threat of this "fundamental Islam". Netanyahu continued:

We do not want to take away from the Palestinian the right to self definition. We want the Jewish state to be recognized and protected. Our insistence on security is not an excuse.

We left Lebanon and now Iran is touching the fence. We left Gaza and now Iran is touching that fence. We cannot let this happen a third time… There is no doubt that Rabin, as a man of security, would have agreed to this insistence. 

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Iran Feature: Ahmadinejad's "Problematic Triumph" in Lebanon (Zibakalam)

Whichever way one approaches Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Lebanon, there can be little dispute that it was a personal triumph for the hardline Iranian president. The Iranian media covered the state visit thoroughly and in particular showed the huge crowd that gathered to welcome the Iranian leader. Ahmadinejad’s aides and supporters back in Iran tried to portray the visit as a personal triumph for the president’s “bold, revolutionary and courageous foreign policy.”

Having confronted unabated criticism since the much-disputed presidential election in June 2009, it was only natural for Ahmadinejad to portray his visit to Lebanon as a victory against his opponents in Iran. Whether or not the visit was equally a triumph for Iran itself is a more controversial question. There are many Iranians who ask why our money should be spent on Shiites in Lebanon or for that matter on the Palestinians.

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The Latest from Iran (15 October): Back to Tehran, Back to Reality

1715 GMT: Music and Politics. An EA reader tips us off to this nugget from a documentary on the musical legend Mohammad Reza Shajarian.

Asked why he became more vocal in his protests after the 2009 election, Shajarian says, "Some guy [Ahmadinejad] described the people as dirt and dust. In a typhoon, dust can blind you. I want to speak for that dust."

Then this. Q: "Are you not afraid?" Sharjarian: "What can they do to me?" Q: "They can arrest you" Shajarian: "I have no fear."

The exchange is in the last quarter of the documentary.

1700 GMT: Khatami's Appeal to Hezbollah. It has emerged that former President Mohammad Khatami wrote to Sayyid Hassan Nasrullah, the head of Hezbollah, about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's trip to Lebanon:

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Iran and Lebanon: Ahmadinejad Plays Second Fiddle to Hezbollah's Nasrullah (Younis)

Many Lebanese would have a lot to say about claims that Iran is a "unifying force in the region", but the speech did make clear that Nasrallah's crowd appeal is unmatched and that his power among many Shias does not need to be enforced by Iran. If anything, Hezbollah deftly staged a welcome for Ahmadinejad designed to encourage the Iranians to dig deeper and give more generously to Hezbollah's cause.

While Ahmadinejad was still speaking, I whispered to the teenage girl sitting in front of me: "Who do you prefer; Ahmadinejad or Nasrallah?" "Nasrallah!" she replied rolling her eyes. "Nasrallah is one of us. And anyway, Ahmadinejad is boring."

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Lebanon Eyewitness: Watching Iran and Hezbollah's Public Diplomacy (Khatib)

Iran’s latest public diplomacy event has not won Iran new hearts and minds in Lebanon --- [although] those supporting Iran used the occasion to display their loyalty and gratitude --- but it did send a strong message about Iran’s primacy in the local politics of Lebanon to Iran’s dissenters and supporters alike, and an image of solidarity to the Shiites of the Middle East at large. With Iran’s influence on the formation of the next Iraqi government taking precedence over other external influences (neither the USA nor Saudi Arabia has managed to push its own preferred candidates for the position of prime minister), and with Bahrain’s forthcoming parliamentary election witnessing arrests of Shiite activists ahead of the election, Ahmadinejad’s visit to Lebanon is perhaps Iran’s shrewdest public diplomacy statement about where it stands, and where it wants to be in the region’s political game.

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