The Latest from Iran (14 October): Paying Attention

2025 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online claims that President Ahmadinejad will announce the start of subsidy cuts on television at the end of next week, as support payments to 15 million families begin.

2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Islamic Iran Participation Front member Davood Soleimani has been released after 16 months in detention.

2015 GMT: Video of the Ahmadinejad speech in Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon:

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Iran Snap Analysis: Ahmadinejad's Beirut Manoeuvre

We begin this morning by looking for signs of change from President Ahmadinejad's trip to Beirut.

So far, it's hard to see impact. Ahmadinejad used his Beirut stage to put out standard rhetoric. There were the "arrogant powers" who had inflicted Israel on all of us: "In a premeditated way … and under a pretext to compensate for the World War [II] damages, they occupied Palestine … and set up an illegitimate regime and created a permanent threat for all governments and nations across the world."

There was the hailing of the "common goals and ideas" of Iran and Lebanon as they led the world in resistance against oppressors.

There was the satisfaction that the Ahmadinejad trip had "angered" the White House, with its statement, ""He (Ahmadinejad) continues his provocative ways, even as he leaves his country in further economic stress and turmoil as a result of his actions that have led to international sanctions that are having a great impact."

There was a crowd of thousands to welcome Ahmadinejad. The Lebanese President and other representatives said the required nice things, with the incentive of Iran's $450 million offer of aid to Lebanon's oil, electricity, and water sectors, and signed documents of co-operation. Sayyid Hassan Nasrullah, the leader of Hezbollah, said Iran was "the Middle East's guarantee for justice and security".

However, beyond the formalities, the effect is uncertain.

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Photo of the Day: Ahmadinejad and the Complexities of Lebanon

There will be lots of formal photographs of President Ahmadinejad in Beirut today and tomorrow, but it was this picture posted by Gooya, as Lebanon prepared for the visit, that I think captured the complex politics and society of the country:

Ahmadinejad's Visit to Lebanon: The Top 10 Possible Outcomes (Mikdashi)

Maya Mikdashi writes for the satirical blog "Tough Niece" on the website Jadaliyya:

10. Upon hearing Ahmadinejad’s footsteps in Lebanon, [former Israeli Prime Minister] Ariel “Arik” Sharon rises from his coma long enough to learn that Iran is still on the road to becoming the second country in the Middle East to have a nuclear weapon after Israel. He has another stroke. Round two for Ahmadinejad.

9. Upon meeting Ahmadinejad at a fundraiser for Hezbollah, Lebanese-American Miss USA 2010 Rima Faqih assassinates him, flies back to Iran and stages a coup branded by Saatchi and Saatchi  as  "From Wilayat al Faqih to Wilayet al Al-Faqih.” President Faqih makes high heels, manicured nails, and makeup mandatory in Iran. Western feminists and [French President] Nicolas Sarkozy rejoice.

8. Upon throwing a rock at Occupied Palestine from the Lebanese border, Ahmadinejad misses and the rock falls with stunning force into no-man’s land. Oil begins to gush forth from where the rock landed. Immediately, Israel and Lebanon sign a peace deal brokered by Iran. An oil pipeline is built from Tehran to Haifa. Capitalism wins. Again. Yay.

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The Latest from Iran (13 October): Ahmadinejad's Trip for Legitimacy

2215 GMT: Apologies for our limited service this afternoon and evening --- EA staff have been at a seminar on Israeli Policy Towards the Middle East and Iran. We'll catch up with all the news from early Thursday morning.

1305 GMT: Mystery of the Day Solved! Wow, the power of the Internet....

Ten minutes ago, we asked what could possibly be the gift --- a "state of the art device owned by only six countries across the globe" --- that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave to Lebanon's President Suleiman?

Angie Nassar, who writes for Now Lebanon, points us to the answer. Flashback to 1981 and then come Back to the Future:

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The Latest from Iran (4 October): More of the Same

2100 GMT: Execution Watch. The death sentence of Kurdish activist Habibollah Golparipour, on charges of waging war through propaganda and membership in an illegal group, has been upheld.

2025 GMT: Musical Moment. US National Public Radio posts a profile of famous Iranian singer Mohammad Reza Shajarian, whose renditions of classical Persian songs have become the music of post-election protest.

2005 GMT: Come Together Right Now. Mehr has picked up on the "unity" theme in Ali Larijani's remarks at Mazandaran University (see 0725 GMT): "Given the current circumstances, the country will stand to lose from any dispute over unimportant issues, and thus officials should try to avoid making statements that would create discord."

I'm not sure about the meaning of the website's English translation of the Speaker of Parliament's remarks on sanctions: "The economic sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program should be viewed as an opportunity to make up for shortcomings in the country."

2000 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates has frozen some Iranian bank accounts in line with UN resolutions, according to Abdul Rahim Al Awadi, the head of the Central Bank's anti-money laundering unit.

Al Awadi announced, "The UAE, with its commitment towards the UN, implemented all UN resolutions against Iranians."

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Middle East Special Analysis: The Israel-Syria-Palestine Triangle

Washington’s “Wise” Plan?

As the deadline for Israel's construction freeze in the West Bank approaches, US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell hinted at a tactical manoeuvre to keep the Palestinian Authority at the table for direct talks after 26 September: "We think it makes sense to extend the moratorium.”

What kind of extension could this be, however? Relatively short, at best, given the position of Israel's Netanyahu Government. The American hope is to keep some momentum in discussions, avoiding both an Israeli walkout and the labelling of the Palestinians as "rejectionist".  

As soon as the Arab League responded by saying that they would back Ramallah if Israel resumes construction from 26 September, Washington refined its manoeuvre. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked to Israel’s Channel 10 on Thursday: "Where we sit now it would be useful for some extension, it would be extremely useful. I don't think a limited extension would undermine the process going forward if there were a decision agreed to by both parties."

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