Iran's Economy and Politics: Tensions Rise over Subsidy Cuts

This is unlikely to be a headline story in non-Iranian press --- where is the drama in subsidy cuts? --- but it should be.

The Ahmadinejad Government's high-profile plan to reduce subsidies on food, energy, and other goods, softening the blow for those on lower incomes by handing out Government cheques, was supposed to be implemented in September. Then it was supposed to begin in October. Now it is scheduled for November.

Each week, however, features more rumblings on the economic and political fronts. This is a round-up of what only a day brings....

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The Latest from Iran (10 October): The Threat of Foreign Mice

1925 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azeri activist Hossein Nasiri has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1830 GMT: Currency Watch. Iran's problems with foreign exchange appear to be affecting production. Paint producers have been crippled by problems with imports, leading to lack of stock for retailers. Steel producers, who import 40% of their raw material, are having problems with lines of credit and must pay a cash premium for shipping insurance. A similar situation is reported with importers of car parts. Reports continue of lines at foreign exchange markets.

1810 GMT: Academic Corner: Parliament is expressing strong objections to Government moves, in its 5th Budget Plan, to partly privatise Iran's universities.

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The Latest from Iran (9 October): Threats and Two Responses

1725 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Several students at Amir Kabir University have received a total of 20 years of prison sentences.

Parvin Javadzadeh, arrested after an Ashura procession in December, has been released on $300,000 bail. 

Blogger Hossein Ronaghi-Maleki (Babak Khorammdin), sentenced this week to 15 years in prison, is reportedly in poor health because of a hunger strike. 

1720 GMT: Economy Warning. In advanced of planned subsidy cuts, Mehr warns that prices will rise in Aban (October/November) for seven energy items: gasoline, gasoil, white oil, blast-furnace gas, liquid gas, natural gas, and electricity.

On another front, Mohammad Atarodian, secretary general of employer's association, has said the official figure on unemployment of 14.6% is surely too low, because it counts people as "employed" if they work one hour per week.

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The Latest from Iran (8 October): Hey, Look Over There!

1845 GMT: Banning the Reformists (Confusion Edition). Yesterday we erroneously reported, "Alireza Avayi, the head of the judiciary in Tehran Province, has denied that a banning order has been issued against the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front."

Here's the rather muddled story. The IIPF is claiming that, after it complained about a ban on its activities, an Iranian court cancelled its dissolution and authorised the resumption of its activities.

Avayi has denied the IIPF's claim, saying that the file on the case has merely been transferred to the Tehran Revolutionary Court. The IIPF is still not allowed to engage in any political activity.

Last week, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei said the IIPF and another reformist party, the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, were banned.

1815 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Iranian Labor News Agency reports that paint factories are unable to import raw material due to sanctions, and retailers are now out of stock.

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Iran Analysis: No Liberty --- The Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Diversion...Again

0645 GMT: Sigh....

Yesterday we began with a letter from detained activist Majid Tavakoli to Iranian students, a letter which I think articulately --- and poignantly --- set out the extent of the Government's repression but held out hope: "Despotism's palace is shaking on its foundations."

At no point did Tavakoli, sitting in Rajai Shahr Prison, expend his ink on Iran's nuclear programme or its relations with the West. The emergency and confrontation was much closer to home, and the aspiration had little to do with uranium: "I know that we will be together to joyfully celebrate liberty."

This morning opens far differently, thousands of miles away. Phillip Stephens of The Financial Times writes an account of discussions amongst the West's best and brightest at the Aspen European Strategy Forum, "Caught Between Bombing Iran and an Iranian Bomb".

"Iran" is not necessarily about a day-by-day fretting about the Bomb and Apocalypse. That scenario only feeds into the rhetoric of a regime all too ready to deal with more important matters --- for example, the suppression of dissident --- by holding up the US and its allies as menaces ready to strike Tehran.

No, rather than offer the easy answer or prescription, "It's all about nukes", a day-by-day assessment might begin with regard to the Iranian people and their political, economic, social, and religious situation. Far from Aspen's lavish banquets and its chit-chat, that might be the best way to approach Majid Tavakoli and hundreds --- thousands --- of others like him.

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The Latest from Iran (7 October): "We Have No Political Prisoners"

1935 GMT: Clash in Kurdistan. According to Iranian state media, five people, including four policemen, were killed and nine others wounded when two gunmen opened fire on a police patrol in Sanandaj, the capital of Kurdistan.

Deputy provincial police commander Ebrahim Kazeminejad said,"At 5:10 pm two assailants from anti-revolutionary groups fired on a patrol and passers-by in Azadi Square of Sanandaj in which four policemen and a passer-by were martyred. In this terrorist act also five policemen and four passers-by were wounded."

1930 GMT: Academic Corner. According to Rah-e-Sabz, Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Mohammad Hosseini has told pro-government academics, "Hopefully all universities will be purged."

1920 GMT: Breaking the Reformists (cont.). Another voice challenging the supposed ban on the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front: Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi has said the dissolution of the party is illegal and cannot be done without a full court hearing and appeal.

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The Latest from Iran (6 October): Through the Looking Glass of "Justice"

1820 GMT: Gasoline Squeeze. Azerbaijani site Trend looks at Iran's energy situation, with experts sceptical that Tehran can achieve its declared goal of self-sufficiency.

1800 GMT: Extra, Extra, Read All About It. The leading reformist newspaper Shargh has resumed on-line publication.

Shargh has suffered a lengthy ban by the Iranian authorities until the print edition reappeared this summer.

The website features a series of articles on sanctions against Iran, including a feature on   Stuart Levey, the Undersecretary for Financial Intelligence in the US Treasury. He is recognised as the official who has been successful in swaying private banks and companies around the globe to support sanctions against Iran. The newspaper claims he has made 80 foreign trips, 8 to Dubai --- a key point for Iran trade and finance --- alone. 

1735 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hashem Sabaghian, a leading member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been released from detention.

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Iran Dispute: Number of Ahmadinejad Fans --- 2.2 Billion or 31?

France 24 looks at the audience scorecard for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech at the United General Assembly on 23 September.

The initial tally from Fars News, citing reader comments on an article on France 24.com, was 2.2 billion --- or about one comment for every three people on Earth and 1 1/2 comments for every Web user on the planet. 

Unfortunately for Iranian media and for Ahmadinejad, France 24 did some checking. Its article on the speech, in French and English, prompted 25 comments on the French version and six on the English. version, and 25 for the French. 

Fars' original article has now disappeared, but France 24 provides a very helpful screen-shot.

The Latest from Iran (5 October): The Economy, Arrests, and Ahmadinejad v. Parliament

1729 GMT: Nuclear Watch (Better Late than Never). The head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, said today, "The start-up process of the Bushehr power plant is progressing well and we hope to see it connected to the national electricity grid by late December, or a few weeks earlier." 

The Bushehr plant was supposed to be operational this month but Iranian official said last week that the launch would be delayed. Salehi said this was because of a "small leak" in a pool near the plant after stories circulated that Bushehr might have been hindered by the Stuxnet computer worm.

1725 GMT: Mousavi Watch. In his latest interview on Kalemeh, Mir Hossein Mousavi has declared that President Ahmadinejad's foreign policies are destructive and his performance should be judged in a referendum.

1720 GMT: Currency Watch. Iranian Labor News Agency reports that lines in front of governmental currency exchange shops are 10 meters long. Dollars are being traded at open rates, as opposed to the government's official rates, elsewhere.

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The Latest from Iran (4 October): More of the Same

2100 GMT: Execution Watch. The death sentence of Kurdish activist Habibollah Golparipour, on charges of waging war through propaganda and membership in an illegal group, has been upheld.

2025 GMT: Musical Moment. US National Public Radio posts a profile of famous Iranian singer Mohammad Reza Shajarian, whose renditions of classical Persian songs have become the music of post-election protest.

2005 GMT: Come Together Right Now. Mehr has picked up on the "unity" theme in Ali Larijani's remarks at Mazandaran University (see 0725 GMT): "Given the current circumstances, the country will stand to lose from any dispute over unimportant issues, and thus officials should try to avoid making statements that would create discord."

I'm not sure about the meaning of the website's English translation of the Speaker of Parliament's remarks on sanctions: "The economic sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program should be viewed as an opportunity to make up for shortcomings in the country."

2000 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates has frozen some Iranian bank accounts in line with UN resolutions, according to Abdul Rahim Al Awadi, the head of the Central Bank's anti-money laundering unit.

Al Awadi announced, "The UAE, with its commitment towards the UN, implemented all UN resolutions against Iranians."

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