Iran and Lebanon: Ahmadinejad Plays Second Fiddle to Hezbollah's Nasrullah (Younis)

Many Lebanese would have a lot to say about claims that Iran is a "unifying force in the region", but the speech did make clear that Nasrallah's crowd appeal is unmatched and that his power among many Shias does not need to be enforced by Iran. If anything, Hezbollah deftly staged a welcome for Ahmadinejad designed to encourage the Iranians to dig deeper and give more generously to Hezbollah's cause.

While Ahmadinejad was still speaking, I whispered to the teenage girl sitting in front of me: "Who do you prefer; Ahmadinejad or Nasrallah?" "Nasrallah!" she replied rolling her eyes. "Nasrallah is one of us. And anyway, Ahmadinejad is boring."

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Lebanon Eyewitness: Watching Iran and Hezbollah's Public Diplomacy (Khatib)

Iran’s latest public diplomacy event has not won Iran new hearts and minds in Lebanon --- [although] those supporting Iran used the occasion to display their loyalty and gratitude --- but it did send a strong message about Iran’s primacy in the local politics of Lebanon to Iran’s dissenters and supporters alike, and an image of solidarity to the Shiites of the Middle East at large. With Iran’s influence on the formation of the next Iraqi government taking precedence over other external influences (neither the USA nor Saudi Arabia has managed to push its own preferred candidates for the position of prime minister), and with Bahrain’s forthcoming parliamentary election witnessing arrests of Shiite activists ahead of the election, Ahmadinejad’s visit to Lebanon is perhaps Iran’s shrewdest public diplomacy statement about where it stands, and where it wants to be in the region’s political game.

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The Latest from Iran (14 October): Paying Attention

2025 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online claims that President Ahmadinejad will announce the start of subsidy cuts on television at the end of next week, as support payments to 15 million families begin.

2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Islamic Iran Participation Front member Davood Soleimani has been released after 16 months in detention.

2015 GMT: Video of the Ahmadinejad speech in Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon:

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Iran Snap Analysis: Ahmadinejad's Beirut Manoeuvre

We begin this morning by looking for signs of change from President Ahmadinejad's trip to Beirut.

So far, it's hard to see impact. Ahmadinejad used his Beirut stage to put out standard rhetoric. There were the "arrogant powers" who had inflicted Israel on all of us: "In a premeditated way … and under a pretext to compensate for the World War [II] damages, they occupied Palestine … and set up an illegitimate regime and created a permanent threat for all governments and nations across the world."

There was the hailing of the "common goals and ideas" of Iran and Lebanon as they led the world in resistance against oppressors.

There was the satisfaction that the Ahmadinejad trip had "angered" the White House, with its statement, ""He (Ahmadinejad) continues his provocative ways, even as he leaves his country in further economic stress and turmoil as a result of his actions that have led to international sanctions that are having a great impact."

There was a crowd of thousands to welcome Ahmadinejad. The Lebanese President and other representatives said the required nice things, with the incentive of Iran's $450 million offer of aid to Lebanon's oil, electricity, and water sectors, and signed documents of co-operation. Sayyid Hassan Nasrullah, the leader of Hezbollah, said Iran was "the Middle East's guarantee for justice and security".

However, beyond the formalities, the effect is uncertain.

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Photo of the Day: Ahmadinejad and the Complexities of Lebanon

There will be lots of formal photographs of President Ahmadinejad in Beirut today and tomorrow, but it was this picture posted by Gooya, as Lebanon prepared for the visit, that I think captured the complex politics and society of the country:

Ahmadinejad's Visit to Lebanon: The Top 10 Possible Outcomes (Mikdashi)

Maya Mikdashi writes for the satirical blog "Tough Niece" on the website Jadaliyya:

10. Upon hearing Ahmadinejad’s footsteps in Lebanon, [former Israeli Prime Minister] Ariel “Arik” Sharon rises from his coma long enough to learn that Iran is still on the road to becoming the second country in the Middle East to have a nuclear weapon after Israel. He has another stroke. Round two for Ahmadinejad.

9. Upon meeting Ahmadinejad at a fundraiser for Hezbollah, Lebanese-American Miss USA 2010 Rima Faqih assassinates him, flies back to Iran and stages a coup branded by Saatchi and Saatchi  as  "From Wilayat al Faqih to Wilayet al Al-Faqih.” President Faqih makes high heels, manicured nails, and makeup mandatory in Iran. Western feminists and [French President] Nicolas Sarkozy rejoice.

8. Upon throwing a rock at Occupied Palestine from the Lebanese border, Ahmadinejad misses and the rock falls with stunning force into no-man’s land. Oil begins to gush forth from where the rock landed. Immediately, Israel and Lebanon sign a peace deal brokered by Iran. An oil pipeline is built from Tehran to Haifa. Capitalism wins. Again. Yay.

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The Latest from Iran (13 October): Ahmadinejad's Trip for Legitimacy

2215 GMT: Apologies for our limited service this afternoon and evening --- EA staff have been at a seminar on Israeli Policy Towards the Middle East and Iran. We'll catch up with all the news from early Thursday morning.

1305 GMT: Mystery of the Day Solved! Wow, the power of the Internet....

Ten minutes ago, we asked what could possibly be the gift --- a "state of the art device owned by only six countries across the globe" --- that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave to Lebanon's President Suleiman?

Angie Nassar, who writes for Now Lebanon, points us to the answer. Flashback to 1981 and then come Back to the Future:

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The Latest from Iran (12 October): Rafsanjani Hits Back

1945 GMT: Opposition Challenge. Ardeshir Amir Arjomand, a senior advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has called on Green Movement activists to “bravely” reflect the “oppression” of the Iranian people to the “international community and all international organisations".

Arjomand, who is now outside Iran, called the President a "delusional liar" and declared, “Mr Ahmadinejad is not the representative of the Iranian people and does not have the right to speak on behalf of the Iranian people in the international stage.” Claiming that Ahmadinejad's impending visit to Lebanon was to gain domestic advantage, Arjomand asserted, “Unfortunately, Ahmadinejad is used to exploiting—[both] politically and personally—the pains and sufferings of others [both] by means of deceitful slogans and actions.”

Arjomand also spoke out against sanctions:

The international community must not punish [Iranian] workers, teachers and deprived sectors of the Iranian nation --- who live under the tyranny of an oppressive state --- because of the irresponsible adventurism of a president who lacks legitimacy among the people....Contrary to baseless claims, the sanctions will have a clear effect on the day-to-day lives of the people;therefore the Green Movement wants an end to the economic sanctions. The harm resulting from these sanctions have a direct impact on the situation of the people’s livelihoods and will create basic problems for using national resources.

Arjomand then tried to turn the Israeli issue against the government, saying that West Jerusalem government was “eager [for] and in need” of Ahmadinejad’s positions, using them to divert attention from the Palestinian struggle for justice, and claiming that the Green Movement “condemns” Israel’s acts of hostility in “breaching human rights and human dignity": “Our support for the Palestinian people is considered to be a support for justice and people as well as a religious and moral duty.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Is Supreme Leader Throwing Rafsanjani Under the Bus?

Cartoon by Nikahang KowsarUPDATE 1755 GMT: An EA correspondent updates us on the Supreme Leader's trip to Qom....

It will begin sometime between Friday and next Tuesday, in part to avoid a clash with President Ahmadinejad's trip to Lebanon, which is expected on Wednesday.

Khamenei will have some public meetings with people in Qom such as families of martyrs, Basij militia, clerics, and the Society of Teachers and Researchers of Qom. However, his meetings with senior clerics will be private and without press coverage.

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This morning we noted the report of the Islamic Republic News Agency that the Supreme Leader had made a "final and definite" opinion over control of Islamic Azad University, Iran's largest university system. The private system has been overseen by officials linked to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, but earlier this year the Ahmadinejad Government sought to take charge.

Well, we've checked with correspondents, and Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration is a knockout victory for Ahmadinejad. Indeed, the verdict --- that the rights of the IAU are determined by the Supreme Leader and that it falls under the Government's jurisdiction --- may point to a even bigger political decision by Ayatollah Khamenei.

Between now and a week on Tuesday, the Supreme Leader will journey to Qom, the key religious centre of Iran, for a stay of several days. Formally, he will commemorate the birthday of Reza, Shi'a's 8th Imam, but the politics go far beyond that ceremony.

Khamenei's trip is no less than an appeal to the maraji, the highest clerics of Iran, to support him amidst the political, economic, and international challenges that Tehran is facing.

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The Latest from Iran (11 October): Persistence

1900 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. As news emerges of the Supreme Leader's smack-down of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani over Islamic Azad University, Rafsanjani's brother Mohammed Hashemi has tipped off more worries. He declared that their party Kargozaran had committed no mistakes which would justify shutting it down, but "radical currents" could not bear parties like Kargozaran and want to eliminate them.

1830 GMT: Bazaar Strikes. Tagheer claims that the gold market in Mashhad is still on strike despite threats of prosecution of sellers.

1810 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Moment. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, meeting province governors, has said people should believe that the government has more foreign currency and gold reserves than normal.

Rahimi added that subsidy cuts aim at just distribution of wealth, and there will be no inflation, as that is only a rumour spread by enemies.He claimed the challenge of sanctions will be met by activating projects in the South Pars gas and oil field, creating 1.1 million new jobs. 

Indeed, Rahimi is so confident that --- like the President --- he has filed a lawsuit against conservative MP Ali Motahhari and several other legislators.

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