Iran Guide: An Introduction to the Issue of Subsidies (Nikou)

The Government's plans to cut subsidies has become one of the most charged issues in Iran, with divisions within the conservative establishment --- and an escalating battle between some key members of Parliament and the President --- over the proposals.

The subsidy cut plan also comes at a time of economic tension, raising concerns that they might contribute to inflation and thus public discontent. The first reductions were supposed to be in place this week, but they have now been delayed to next month.

Writing for Tehran Bureau, Semira Nikou offers a beginner's guide.

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The Latest from Iran (3 October): Sedition's Gonna Get Ya

2020 GMT: Economy Watch --- Revised. An EA source makes a vital correction to our [portrayal of the article in Peyke Iran that 48 million of Iran's 75 million people "live below the poverty line" (see 1900 GMT):

There is no official poverty line in iran.  All the article says is that 2/3 of Iranian families have incomes under $800 a month.  That is almost $10,000 a year/household. We know that Iran is a middle-income country, so that should not shock anyone.

2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Revolving Door Edition). So as Alireza Beheshti Shirazi leaves detention, Saeed Noormohammadi, a member of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, goes back to prison.

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The Latest from Iran (2 October): Adding Up the Punishments

1707 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Claimed video of the closing of the gold market today in Ahvaz in southern Iran:

1655 GMT: Syria in Tehran. So how did President Ahmadinejad's showpiece visit from Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad go?

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The Latest from Iran (1 October): Challenging the Supreme Leader, Trying the Hikers

1945 GMT: Breaking the Reformists (cont.). Press TV gives the regime line on the arrest of Freedom Movement of Iran leaders Ebrahim Yazdi and Hashem Sabbaghian (see 1710 GMT).

Yazdi and Sabbaghian were arrested after they appeared in a Friday Prayers mass "led by a well-known Wahhabi element" in Isfahan. Iranian authorities had ordered the cancellation of prayers by the "extremist elements" but Yazdi and Sabbaghian had encouraged the Wahhabi figures to persist. Despite a pledge to give up his illegal behaviour, Yazdi has" reportedly expanded the scope of his group's activities". 

1830 GMT: The Powers of the Guards Expand. Peyke Iran reports what we have just learned from sources: the internal security duties of the Ministry of Intelligence have been handed to the Revolutionary Guard.

1825 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh reports that the implementation of the Government's subsidy cuts plan has been delayed from October to November.

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The Latest from Iran (29 September): Decline and Punishment

1800 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The US Government has asked Japan to completely withdraw from the Azadegan oil development field in southwest Iran, according to Yomiuri Shinbun. 

Japanese officials as saying that Washington wants the Inpex Corporation, which has a 10% stake in the field, to leave Iran. If it does not, it could be targeted for unilateral US sanctions.

Toyota Motors withdrew from Iran in June to avoid US sanctions.

1750 GMT: The Battle Within. And another analyst joins in (see 1235 GMT): Reza Aslan says, "[Ahmadinejad] is going home to a country in political turmoil, an economy on the verge of utter collapse, and a government in total deadlock."

1740 GMT: Yes, I Guess Social Media Really is Unimportant. In the context of this week's discussion on EA on social media and activism, I found that interesting....

Iranian state-controlled television is calling Facebook and Twitter the "hidden enemies" of Iran, used by Western intelligence agencies to recruit new members and gather data on individuals. Mardomak has posted a video.

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Iran Interview: The State Department's New Man for Tehran

UPDATE 1420 GMT: An EA correspondent adds: 

The resignation of John Limbert was almost entirely because he had only a one-year leave of absence from his faculty position with the US Naval Academy. If he was a bit frustrated, I think it would be more accurate to say that he was in a learning mode for the entire time. He has almost always served overseas and was not familiar with the Washington policy process. 

Limbert's expertise on Iran is without parallel, but I was always sceptical that he could translate that into policy actions while swimming with the likes of officials like Dennis Ross and other denizens of the policy deep. 

As head of the Northern Gulf desk in the State Department, a lot of Dibble's effort went into Iran. He is no match for Limbert in terms of Iran expertise, but neither is anyone else. Dibble is a bit more of an operator, so the State Department could be trading depth of expertise for policy acumen. There is a question of how long Dibble is slated to be in the post: it is not really clear that anyone can come in temporarily and have a major impact. He does have a really smart and experienced staff.

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Assessing Ahmadinejad in New York: Reality is a Minority Dwelling Place (Sick)

Ahmadinejad, like some other leaders, has constructed an alternative universe based on a vision of what his own country and the world should be. That vision is attractive to the very many people who are unhappy with the ways things actually are.

So when Ahmadinejad wants to condemn the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, he declares that the original event that set these interventions in motion – the 9/11 attack – was a fraud perpetrated by the Americans on themselves. The fact that Osama Bin Laden has proudly claimed credit for the attack is simply irrelevant. The myth fits into the ideal political universe of Ahmadinejad (and others – not just in Iran) who prefer to see all unpleasantness in the Middle East as the perfidious work of outsiders, especially the West.

This hugely complicates any effort of Ahmadinejad or other members of the Iranian regime to pursue a consistent and pragmatic diplomatic path. However, it preserves their revolutionary image with a broad swath of humanity. It also helps explain why Obama’s offer of an outstretched hand – which does not fit in this alternative universe – was not easily accepted.

In fact-checking Ahmadinejad and others who have their own idealized political agenda, one should never forget that the “reality-based” universe is in fact a minority dwelling place.

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The Latest from Iran (26 September): Striking News

1835 GMT: Family Matters. A group of 40 women's rights activists has delivered a petition with 5000 signatures to the Parliament urging legislators to halt all efforts in "promoting temporary marriages and polygamy."

1825 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rozita Vaseghi has been moved out of solitary detention after five months. 

Vaseghi, a Baha’i follower, was arrested in 2005 and summoned in January 2010 for sentencing. She received a five-year prison term and wasbanned from leaving Iran for then years. She was taken into custory in March.

Rah-e-Sabz does the maths and concludes that 1100 years in prison sentences have been handed out to 145 detainees in Evin Prisoner. The youngest political prisoner is 19, the oldest 73.

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The Latest from Iran (25 September): A Squeeze, a Meeting, and a Nuclear Signal

1115 GMT: Human Rights Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports 1952 cases of rights violations in the last month, including firings, intimidation, and detentions.

1100 GMT: Economy Watch. The Iranian Labor News Agency offers the frank observation, "Some Iranian officials recently confirmed the existence of Mafia [organised crime] in the country’s import market. However the [extent of the] economic monopoly...still remains unknown."

Iranian officials have not announced the names of the "monopolists" but the report says "political activists" presume they are "connected with high powers". 

0650 GMT: And in Tehran. But will the Iranian political establishment back Ahmadinejad as he presses for the renewed talks on uranium enrichment?

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The Latest from Iran (24 September): Back to Life, Back to Reality

1315 GMT: A Rafsanjani Move on Political Prisoners? Rooz Online offers an English translation of its article on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's 3 1/2-hour meeting this week with families of political prisoners. It provides this intriguing quote from Rafsanjani, taken from his website, on the dynamics of a visit to the Supreme Leader:

If I communicate your requests to government authorities, I am not sure I will get a positive response and in fact this may produce the opposite response....The esteemed leader had issued suitable instructions regarding the speedy examination of the prisoners’ cases and also on respecting their legal rights, which could solve many of the current problems....

I hope that this will not be a futile effort.

What makes this intriguing --- and Rooz notes this --- is that it is a follow-up to Rafsanjani's meeting last month with Ayatollah Khamenei, in which he directly handed the Supreme Leader files of political prisoners, insisting to Khamenei's office that he had to give them to the Supreme Leader personally.

As we later reported from reliable sources in Iran, Khamenei refused to look at the files in front of Rafsanjani. The frustrated former President later told members of his Kargozaran Party, "I won't bear this situation."

So is this a renewed attempt by Rafsanjani to "push" the Supreme Leader?

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