The Latest from Iran (21 September): Protests and Gasoline

2025 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. AFP has now picked up the story that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani met the families of political prisoners and promised to raise their cases with the Supreme Leader.

2015 GMT: Attacking the Judiciary. A curious and possibly significant editorial in the official Islamic Republic News Agency --- which is generally in league with the President's office --- criticising Iran's judiciary for allowing political prisoners to write letters which are then publicised.

1930 GMT: Economy Watch. Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini has denied that the Government is postponing the implementation of its subsidy cuts, scheduled for next week.

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Iran Feature: Top Tehran Analyst Zibakalam "Sanctions Have Worked"

These remarks from Professor Sadegh Zibakalam, one of Iran's top analysts of international affairs are striking, especially when set against President Ahmadinejad's all-is-well assurances. They were featured in Aftab News last week:

We should not wonder why the Koreans have joined the group of countries sanctioning us....South Korea exports $40 billion worth of car parts to the United States. Should Korea not give into American pressure, it could lose the American market....

I believe the next countries to sanction Iran will be China and Turkey....Turkey exports $15 billion to the 25 countries of the European Union each year. Should the EU give Turkey trouble and should Turkey be forced to choose between Iran and the EU, it is only natural that the Turks will choose them, just like...when Japan and South Korea chose to do so.

It would be most unpleasant if the Americans make trouble for the Chinese....China has for some time decreased its investments in and oil purchases from Iran. There was a time when we were the second-largest oil exporter to China in the Persian Gulf region, but today we come in eighth. Our oil exports to China have decreased to 200,000 barrels per day from 800,000 barrels per day.

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The Latest from Iran (20 September): A Quieter Monday --- So Far

1915 GMT: Clerical Challenge. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani, in his latest criticism of the Government, has said that Iran's main problem today is the lack of tolerance for opposition votes and opinions. He added that "unfortunately" religions are abused to confront civilisations and people instead of supporting dialogue and rapprochement.

1900 GMT: Fact-Checking. Earlier we cast some doubt on the President's ability to tell the truth. Looks like his 1st Vice President might also need some help....

Mohammad Reza Rahimi, on the eve of scheduled subsidy cuts, has said that inflation is single-digit (official rate 10,4%) and rice is imported only to cover deficiencies (Iran's heavy imports of rice and sugar have led to widespread bankruptcy of domestic producers).

Meanwhile Iran's banking experts have called published inflation data "an insult to people's intelligence". One said, "You have to add 15% due to subsidy cuts to the official rate of 10%."

1850 GMT: Parliament v. President. Reformist Emad Afrough strikes back at Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "I Rule" statement with a call to fellow legislators to get tough.

Afrough said it is a reality that the Majlis is not at the head of affairs, even though it should be and would be had it not retreated from its rights in many cases. He calls on the Parliament to demand "why Ahmadinejad talks like this and why he falsifies Imam Khomeini's words" about the need for an Iranian legislature to prevent government becoming a dictatorship.

It's not just reformists speaking out. Key conservative Hossein Sobhani-Nia has also said that Khomeini's injunction is "not temporary" and announced that a joint Majlis-Government-Guardian Council commission on the legal powers of the three bodies will discuss Ahmadinejad's latest statement. 

On the clerical front, Isfahan Friday Prayers leader Mohammad Taghi Rahbar has warned that no one should "freely interpret" Khomeini's words, for what he said about the government and Majlis was "still valid". Isfahan's head of seminary Ayatollah Mazaheri declared that "insults against the Majlis are not acceptable".

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Iran Video & Transcript: Ahmadinejad on ABC News "US Hikers, Sanctions, & Human Rights" (19 September)

And so Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's US media tour begins, only hours after he arrived in New York. The first interview was with Christiane Amanpour of ABC News's This Week:

Watch the video....

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The Latest from Iran (19 September): While the President's Away....

1920 GMT: Striking Back. Mehr News posts responses from eight members of Parliament, ranging from conservative to reformist, on the President's recent remarks about his office and the Majlis. The summary --- "A number of lawmakers have criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent claim that the executive branch of government is more important than the legislature" --- is far milder than the comments summarised. 

An example? Key MP Ali Motahari's statement, "Among the three branches of government, the parliament is still on top of affairs and has the authority to impeach the president and remove him from office."

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since December, has reportedly met his family for the first time in two months.

Tavakoli's sentence of 8 1/2 years in prison was confirmed last week by an appeals court. Last month, he and 16 other political prisoners went on hunger strike; one of their demands was the restoration of visits with relatives.

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Iran Analysis: Karroubi's Challenge --- Who Acts and What Happens Next?

The President, as he presses on with his appointments, his rhetoric, and his journeys --- "Look at Cyrus the Great." "Now Look at Me." --- has thrown the Supreme Leader's intervention for unity back at his feet. 

So after Rafsanjani put out his coded jab at Ahmadinejad at the Assembly of Experts this week, after Karroubi tossed in his brick of a letter, and after the President persists in his grandstanding, does the Supreme Leader finally set aside a "unity" which is not happening? Does he point the finger at the Larijanis --- or others in the establishment --- and say....

"Will not someone rid me of this troublesome....?"

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Iran Breaking: Karroubi Intervenes with Letter to Rafsanjani "Take Charge"

UPDATE 1910 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz has published the full text of the Karroubi letter to Rafsanjani.

BBC Persian is reporting that opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi has made a pointed intervention with a letter to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in Rafsanjani's capacity as the head of the Assembly of Experts.

Karroubi's letter, sent to Rafsanjani just before this week's bi-annual Assembly meeting, called on the Assembly to exercise its powers to "monitor the functions and institutions under the auspices of Iran's Supreme Leader". Karroubi cited problems such as "a lack of independence of the judiciary and courts", the interference of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and Basij militia in political issues, and the IRGC's expanded involvement in Iran's economy.

And, in an even more provocative challenge, Karroubi pointed to the Assembly's powers, under the Iranian Constitution, to remove the Supreme Leader if he becomes incapable of carrying out his supervisory role.

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Iran Analysis: Is There A Rift Between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad? (Mahdi)

Dr Ali Akbar Mahdi writes a guest post for EA WorldView to answer the question of a leading Washington journalist, "Is there a rift between the Supreme Leader and the President?":

All along, Ayatollah Khamenei's support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been tactical and not based on what the clerics often refer to as "aqd-e okhovvat" (a tradition of  "brotherhood contract", established by Prophet Mohammad in Medina).  

Khamenei will support Ahmadinejad as long as the advantages of such support outweigh its disadvantages.  However, Khamenei is starting to see how the obedient president is enjoying power and is slowly outgrowing his own skin. That is why different signals are sent out from Khamenei's lower associates to the President, such as letters from the Supreme Leader's offices and critical editorials in newspapers like Kayhan and Jomhouri Islami.

Yet, assured of a ride to the end of presidency, Ahmadinejad has begun acting more unpredictably and controversially than expected. Khamenei knows that he invested too much in him in the last presidential election –-- an investment which much of it has turned to be a loss. For his own sake as the leader above the political fray --- a priority which former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and other clerics have been highlighting to him --- Khamenei needs to distance himself from Ahmadinejad.

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The Latest from Iran (18 September): Watching Ahmadinejad

1903 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran reports that Journalist and human rights activist Abolfazl Abedini has been severely beaten in Karoun Prison.

Abedini has been arrested twice since the 2009 elections and was sentenced this spring to 11 years in prison.

1900 GMT: The US Detainee. Sarah Shourd, released earlier this week from Evin Prison on a guarantee of $500,000 bail, has left Oman for the US. 

1750 GMT: The Conservative Reaction Begins. Alef has responded to the Ahmadinejad statement: both the President and his Ministers are accountable to the Parliament, and that Parliament has the authority to censure a Minister and impeach if necessary.

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The Latest from Iran (17 September): The President's Political Baggage

2035 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Power Play (cont.). So the Iranian President has given his nationally-televised speech in advance of his trip to the United Nations.

Nothing unexpected, as Ahmadinejad gave the ritual thrashing of US foreign policy --- misguided towards Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and Afghanistan --- and declared that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is "under Western pressure" as it reports on Iran's nuclear programme. His symbolic play was to associate himself with Persia's great rulers by referring to how he brought back the Cyrus Cylinder to Iran from the British Museum (albeit only on loan for four months).

An Iranian activist has the best blow-by-blow summary.

2030 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Didi Remez, writing for Israel's Yediot Ahronoth, reports on Italy's growing trade with Iran:

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