Iran First-Hand: Voices in Tehran on Protests and the Opposition

Protest on 14 February, TehranThe Los Angeles Times posts a small but interesting cross-section of opinions from Tehran on the political situation, protests, and the opposition movement.

There is a range of views on whether the opposition protests are building and whether the challenge has gone beyond figures such as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, with comments such as "we are subversive" and "we need militant groups". But while there is division on those important questions, seven of the nine respondents are united by the perception of discontent --- and thus the likely continuation of some form of resistance --- within Iran.

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The Latest from Iran (6 March): Catching Up with the Regime and Rafsanjani

2000 GMT: A Right Nuclear Mess. Looks like Iran has got itself in a real tangle over its first nuclear plant at Bushehr.

Last week reports emerged that Iran was having to withdraw fuel rods from Bushehr, opened last autumn, because of unspecified technical problems.

Although there was some discussion of whether the difficulty was the Stuxnet computer worm, allegedly introduced by the "West" and/or Israel into software running the plant, the issue might have stopped there. But then Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast on Tuesday denied reports that any fuel has been removed, saying operations at the facility "are running their normal course."

And now the deputy head of Parliament's Energy Commission, Abdollah Kaabi, has given the nuclear tension another stir with accusations against Moscow, contradicting the Foreign Ministry line that all is well. Kaabi said Saturday, “If Russia continues to delay the inauguration of Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) will definitely table a motion to demand compensation from Moscow.”

Kaabi said the Russians had always been “unreliable partners in the course of history”, causing “unacceptable” delays in the project and imposing heavy costs on Iran.

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Iran Guide: Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani, and the Battle in the Assembly of Experts (Khalaji)

The power struggle within Iran's political elite will be on full display during the March 8-9 semiannual meeting of the Assembly of Experts [Editor's Note: We are working with the dates of 7-8 March], the body charged with selecting the country's Supreme Leader and, in the case of the imminent meeting, electing a head of the assembly for the coming year. The assembly is now led by Rafsanjani himself, who twenty-two years ago played the lead role in selecting Ali Khamenei to succeed Ruhollah Khomeini as the country's Supreme Leader. In the present predicament, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad and other hardliners are trying to prevent Rafsanjani from maintaining his leadership of the assembly, yet removing him would further narrow the field of Iran's religious and political elite who support Khamenei.

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The Latest from Iran (5 March): The Conflict Just Got Bigger

1320 GMT: The Next March? The Los Angeles Times summarises the call by the opposition for demonstrations on Tuesday in support of International Women's Day.

Mardomak writes about statements endorsing the demonstrations, including one by Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi: "On this day, shoulder to shoulder with our brothers, we will come to the streets to support the popular and broad democratic demands, because achieving ‘equal rights’ is possible only if voiced in a democratic system. But, we must not allow anyone to disregard our demands under the auspices of preventing crisis or avoiding divisiveness."

1310 GMT: The Arrests. We have been reporting, based on the translation of a letter from Mehdi Karroubi's son Mohammad Taghi, that the detention of Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi occurred on 17 February. A source informs us that the actual date should be 21 February --- we have corrected entries appropriately.

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Iran Special: Why the "Green Zone" in Tehran is Important Again

At the end of the day it will be the Iranians on the street who will force the hands of the politicians. It will be a rising opposition movement on the ground that will become the catalyst for change in the political system.

So far, observations about political infighting have been inconclusive, though perhaps this will change soon. Right now, the energy is pouring out of the emails, the Tweets, the blog posts. The opposition is fired up; the Green Zone is refusing to go gently into that good night. 

Like a lime being squeezed, the Green Movement is slipping its bonds. The iron fist of the regime tries to tighten its grip, but the Green Zone expands and slips through its fingers. 

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Iran Analysis: The Detentions Reach the Supreme Leader --- So How Far Does the Opposition Go?

In the last 48 hours, the family and supporters of Mehdi Karroubi have re-stated their claims and grievances against the detention of Karroubi and his wife Fatemeh, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Zahra Rahnavard. They are pointing not only to the sudden arrests but the lies of Iranian officials as they deny that any move has taken place, even insisting that the four opposition figures are "in comfort" in their homes.

But, in the last 48 hours, the Karroubi camp has not just called for the release of their patriarch or for more lenience. Instead, they have named names about those whom they blame for the arrest of the Karroubi.

And at the top of the list is the Supreme Leader.

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The Latest from Iran (4 March): 19 Days and Counting

2230 GMT: Three more claimed videos of last Tuesday's protests:

"Mousavi, Karroubi Must Be Freed!"

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The Latest from Iran (3 March): Disconnects

2340 GMT: Khamenei Watch. The Supreme Leader spent six hours at the Ministry of Intelligence today. He praised the work of the staff and called for long-term plans with comprehensive strategic initiatives.

2330 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Back from a break for the Cambridge University debate to catch up with the evening's news....

Ministry of Intelligence forces have again raided the empty home of prominent reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh and his wife Fakhrosaadat Mohtashamipour.

Tajzadeh, a former Deputy Minister of Interior, was seized the day after the June 2009 Presidential election. He has refused to withdraw the allegation that the vote was manipulated, ensuring his continued imprisonment.

Mohtashamipour was detained during Tuesday's demonstrations.

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Iran Document: Karroubi's Son "When My Parents Were Taken Away and Illegally Arrested"

Mehdi and Fatemeh KarroubiMohammad Taghi Karroubi, the son of the prominent opposition figures Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, writes of the night last month that his parents were seized by security forces and taken to an unknown location, either in a house of detention or prison:

On Monday, 17 [[Note: other sources have said this should be 21] February 2011, coinciding with the birth of Imam Jafar Sadegh [6th Imam of the Shiites], security forces raided my father's residence, putting an end to the house arrest [of my parents]. In order to conceal the truth, they informed my brother [Ali] that my father's house arrest had ended and that his children were now free to visit with him. Upon hearing the news, Ali and his wife immediately went to my father's home, only to find 30 masked security agents inside their residence. My father was locked in a room on the first floor and my mother was being held on the 5th floor.

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The Latest from Iran (1 March): In Prison...And On the Streets?

2050 GMT: Deutsche Welle carries this account from a participant in the protest in Tehran (translation by Tehran Bureau):

The number of security forces today in Tehran was higher than February 14 and 20. There were a lot of plainclothesmen. The security forces hit the protesters hard in an attack at Vali Asr Crossroads and closed off the area. They fired a few shots in the air and the crowd dispersed.

We waited for half an hour in one of the side streets of Vali Asr and then exited with a few others. In the dark and cold, we started walking toward Enghelab and Azadi Squares. The entire crowd were walking toward the west on the sidewalks, but there were a lot of plainclothesmen among the people....Every now and then, security forces would politely take someone aside and check their camera, cell phone, bag, or wallet and then take a picture. I could see people on scaffolds, taking people's pictures from a wide angle after a minute's pause.

Right before Navab Avenue, the crowd got denser and security forces moved to disperse them. People quickly turned down side streets. Some said there were clashes on Navab and they don't want people to get there. We went toward Tohid like the other times. Then, we went toward Azadi and saw that people were moving away from the avenue because there were clashes down there. People were being attacked by security forces and plainclothesmen....

Security forces had brutally attacked protesters. Some people told us they had fired shots in the air repeatedly.

I can't say how many people were there. But I can tell you that half the people on the sidewalks were security forces and Basij.

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