A new poster featuring the pictures of Iran's political prisoners, including recent detainees Mir Hossein Mousavi (second row, right), his wife Zahra Rahnavard (top row, right), and Fatemeh and Mehdi Karroubi (top and second rows, second from right):
It was going to happen. For the past 20 months, not a day has gone by without the opposition voicing the fear that the Green Movement’s two leading figures would be arrested. Now those concerns have been borne out, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, along with their wives and political activists Zahra Rahnavard and Fatemeh Karroubi, were detained. But whether they were arrested now or 20 months ago makes little difference.
The two men, holed up in their homes and guarded by security forces, already had very little freedom of movement; they have effectively been under house arrest for the past several months. So there is no shock in their transfer to a house of detention, run by the Ministry of Intelligence and/or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Instead, the significance lies elsewhere, as an indication of how the political situation has changed on the ground in Iran.
2030 GMT: Not the Same. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has told journalists in Geneva, "There is absolutely no comparison between what is happening in the countries in the region and what has happened in Iran in a few incidents." He declared that Iran had only experienced a few "manipulated protests, while mass movements in the nations in the region are authentic, popular and people's movements".
Salehi said his government was "shocked" by Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi's resort to force against civilians and hoped that "the power is transferred through legal means to the people".
2025 GMT: The Arrests. Zahra Eshraghi, human rights activist and granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, has written on her Facebook page, "If Mousavi and Karroubi and their followers are anti-revolutionary, the Imam Khomeini must be as well."
On Sunday morning we posted the confirmation that key opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, and Zahra Rahnavard had been moved to a house of detention controlled by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.
James Miller of EA has established a LiveBlog on his website Dissected News to cover this development, which we consider one of the most significant in the crisis after the disputed Presidential election of June 2009. EA is linking to this LiveBlog and Dave Siavashi's Iran News Now, as well as posting the latest news as we get it.
28 FEBRUARY
2010 GMT: The children of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard and of Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi have written an open letter to the regime challenging the detention of their parents: "We believe that our parents did not commit a crime but only applied the divine language in their statement. Are you are so afraid of the facts stated in public view that you must imprison them?"
Because of the significance of the news that the regime has detained opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, putting them under the control of the Islamic Revolutoinary Guards Corps, we are now covering developments in that case in a separate LiveBlog.
2150 GMT: Pressing on Rights. The White House has issued a statement, "The United States strongly condemns the Iranian government's organized intimidation campaign and arrests of political figures, human rights defenders, political activists, student leaders, journalists and bloggers....The Iranian government should allow active dialogue among its citizens, freedom of speech, and freedom of assembly without fear. Iranians deserve the same justice and rights that their government extols the virtue of abroad."
The statement did not refer to specific cases, including this weekend's detention of opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi.
On Wednesday, the US imposed financial sanctions on Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi and the head of the Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, for alleged human rights abuses.
Eshraghi: "As people cast around for the root cause of Iran's woes, no one is offering a convincing solution. Opposition activity is confined to reacting post factum to what the regime does."
Lucas: "The public revival through the marches is merely the sign that the opposition is still alive. The challenge will be to turn that into plans and objectives for change. That is a daunting challenge, but --- contrary to Esraghi's wayward pronouncement, 'Opposition activity is confined...to what the regime does' --- it is being pursued."
2000 GMT: Closing Thoughts. A quiet evening, so we will end by noting a couple of thoughtful pieces....
Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now looks at the regime's efforts to crush opposition with house arrests to bring out a phrase that we like to use, "A Marathon, Not a Sprint":
The people of Iran have suffered under a tyrannical and cunning regime for 32 years. The regime is extremely entrenched, with a power-base that is diffuse, distributed and ideological. It is a monster, but one that has begun to lose its grip.The marathon to be rid of it is well under way.
And "A Contributor" at Tehran Bureau writes:
This has been a period of self-reflection, developing consciousness of and responsibility for the current situation. The people have understood who and what they are dealing with and this is extremely important....While the traditional joys of Tehrani life were nowhere to be seen, while all its lightness was burdened down, if you looked very closely, you could detect in the depths the churning of a long-awaited tide of transition.
We will be back early Sunday morning.
Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi on State TV on Thursday night
An informed source and former Iranian government official [said]...that right after the February 14 protests, Heydar Moslehi, Iran's intelligence minister, attended a meeting with the Supreme Leader in which he asked for permission to arrest Karroubi and Mousavi. At the meeting, however, Khamenei criticized the Ministry of Information [Intelligence] for its reports, asking why its analysis of popular participation in the gatherings had been so wrong.
Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 7:20 | James Miller in Africa, EA Global, EA Iran, EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran 
Events will move to the breaking point, when someone holds a gun to someone else's head, and everyone is forced to react. With Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest, Mehdi Karroubi under the constant guard of security forces in his own home, Hashemi Rafsanjani's power being challenged on the Assembly of Experts, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's term expiring, and the 2009 spirit of dissent reviving, the question is when that point is reached.
The earthquakes of Egypt and Tunisia built up for a long time on softer ground. It has taken, and will take, much longer for the fault lines to break the foundations of Iran's government. When it happens, the regime is likely to go quickly, and like a high-magnitude earthquake, the results will be felt far and wide.
We're already feeling the foreshocks, but the whole world is waiting for the big one.
2130 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The debate over Hashemi Rafsanjani's future as head of the Assembly of Experts continues. MP Hojatoleslam Seyed Reza Akrami has jumped in on Khabar Online, declaring that criticism of Rafsanjani is "against law and morality".
2120 GMT: Assessing Crackdowns. Majid Mohammadi, writing for Gooya, offers a sharp analysis of regimes "managing street protests" and setting limits on the killing of dissenters, comparing Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Iran.
2110 GMT: Tonight's Regime Show. The Internet chatter this evening is not about the opposition but about the performance of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi on national television.
