The Latest from Iran (23 February): Breaking Karroubi

2120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hasan Younesi, the son of former Minister of Intelligence Ali Younesi, has been arrested for participation in Sunday's protests.

2040 GMT: Shutting Down Mousavi and Karroubi. Ruhollah Hosseinian, a staunchly pro-Government MP, has said that a Parliamentary committee has found Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to be "corruption agents on earth". That claim may be equivalent to "mohareb" (war against God), which carries the death penalty.

Karroubi's Saham News --- which is down at the moment --- has posted an editorial criticising senior clerics and reformists for failure to speak out on behalf of Karroubi and Mousavi.

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The Latest from Iran (22 February): Look Over There! Ships!

2030 GMT: Remember the 1 Esfand Casualty. Students at Shiraz University of Fine Arts continue to remember Hamed Nourmohammadi, the protester killed during Sunday's classes, by refusing to attend classes.

1435 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. An aide to the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Hossein Safar-Herendi, has signalled that the campaign to remove former President Hashemi Rafsanjani as head of the Assembly of Experts continues. Safar-Herendi told a group of academics in Shiraz:

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The Latest from Iran (21 February): The Contest Continues

2155 GMT: The 1 Esfand Casualty. Shiraz University students have announced a week of mourning for Hamed Nourmohammadi, who was allegedly thrown off a bridge by security forces during Sunday's protests.

2135 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Singer and composer Afshin Taheri was detained on Tuesday and is in an unknown location.

2125 GMT: 1 Esfand. Setareh Sabety offers an overview and crisp analysis of the significance of Sunday's opposition marches:

1st Esfand (Feb.20) was big enough to show that 25th Bahman (Feb.14) was not a single outburst inspired by the events in Tunis and Egypt but rather the revival of an opposition movement that continues to show signs of resilience. Iranians are pragmatists and unlike their Arab neighbors have recent experience with revolution. They will not risk life and limb unless they are sure that they are on the winning side. 1st Esfand was a step in the winning direction for the opposition in Iran.

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Iran Special: Protest --- From Tunisia to Egypt to the Green Movement (The Newest Deal)

As a special for today, amidst the possibility of opposition marches we post The Newest Deal's analysis of protest in North Africa, the Middle East, and Iran:

Despite what the movement's leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, are forced to say publicly, this is no longer a struggle merely aimed at "reforming" the existing system. Those days are over, and both Mousavi and Karoubi likely recognize this in private.

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The Latest from Iran (19 February): Is That All There Is?

2150 GMT: 1 Esfand. Students at 14 Azad (Technical) Universities around Iran have announced their support of Sunday's rallies.

In an interview with the Green outlet RASA TV, Mir Hossein Mousavi's advisor Ardeshir Amir Arjomand confirms that Sunday's marches go ahead even though Mousavi is under house arrest:

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Iran Analysis: Walking the Same Green Tightrope

The regime knows that it must contain Mousavi and Karroubi. Karroubi and Mousavi know that they have to increase pressure on the regime. The people know that they must march. Yesterday's call for more protests finally hint that neither Mousavi or Karroubi are in a mood to compromise; the rhetoric to prosecute or execute the reformist leaders indicate that the regime is unwilling to negotiate.

Someone is going to fall off this tightrope. Someone is going to concede ground, or charge ahead further than they have ever gone. If this happens, expect widespread unrest and chaos in the streets, because this will be the minute the opposition moves from dissent to rebellion.

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The Latest from Iran (18 February): Another Regime Show

2210 GMT: Khabar Online reports on the slogans against Hashemi Rafsanjani in today's pro-government rally in Tehran. They included: 

Master of cunning, Akbar Rafsanjani

Akbar R., Iranian Mubarak

Aghazadeh [Mehdi Hashemi?], your father has gone to the dogs

Be ashamed, quit bargaining

Hashemi, Where is you honour, Faezeh [Raffers daughter], where is your chastity?

2200 GMT: Here are pictures from the government-sponsored 'anti-sedition' rally held in Tehran today. The first image shows protesters getting handed signs. 

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The Latest from Iran (17 February): Cutting Off the Opposition

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Abolfazl Tabarzadi, a close relative of the Iran Democratic Front leader Heshmatollah Tabarzadi, has been freed on bail.

Tabarzadi was detained last December.

2135 GMT: 1 Esfand. Already the posters for Sunday's opposition march, agreed between a coalition of groups this afternoon, are appearing. This one links the rally to Mohammad Mokhtari and Sanee Zhaleh, the two men who died in the 25 Bahman marches on Monday:

2120 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Yesterday I noted the statement of the Assembly of Experts, chaired by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, denouncing the US/Israel-backed "counter-revolution" of Monday's opposition marches.

This morning (0730 GMT) I wrote that regime supporters in Qom had chanted for the death of Rafsanjani.

So how could those two events fit together?

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Iran Special Analysis: After 25 Bahman's Success, The Challenges for the Green Movement (Tehrani)

Faced with the heavy-handed response by the authorities, the question that lies ahead for the both Mousavi and Karroubi is pressing: Should they finally give up all pretence of compromise and resolution of conflict within the boundaries of the Islamic Republic and their reluctance to engage in a full-frontal confrontation with all elements of the regime, Khamenei included? Should they start to question the authority and wisdom of the Supreme Leader directly, as strongly requested by the protestors in the streets, or should they keep pressing with strategies which have been unsuccessful so far?

The rallies of 25 Bahman certainly blew the "breath of life" --- to borrow Karroubi's phrase --- into a stagnant Green movement, but it also brought to the fore compelling questions which need carefully-crafted answers.

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Iran Analysis: Guess Who's Back? Back Again?

The regime had been worried enough in the week before 25 Bahman that it had embarked on another wave of detentions, seizing dozens of activists and journalists. It had raised the barriers on Internet sites, possibly slowing the network down; yesterday its operatives took down a number of key opposition webpages, including Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News. It had tried again to blind mainstream media by shutting away or keeping out its reporters. It put Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi under an undeclared house arrest, shoving Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard back into her residential prison when she tried to join the demonstrations.

But in the end --- as each accumulating video testified --- the Supreme Leader and the Ahmadinejad Government had failed.

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