Iran Snapshot: Supreme Leader v. Ahmadinejad in 3 Paragraphs

I was prompted to write this by a question on another website, trying to come to grips with the political conflict inside Iran: "At least several high officials appear to believe Khamenei could simply have 'ordered' Ahmadinejad to retain [Minister of Intelligence Heydar] Moslehi whether Ahmadinejad wanted to or not. If push comes to shove and the President simply stands his ground, the Supreme Leader may simply overrule his decision on a matter that’s plainly within the President’s authority under the constitution?"

Re: “Khamenei could simply have ‘ordered’ Ahmadinejad to retain Moslehi whether Ahmadinejad wanted to or not."

Effectively, that is what the Supreme Leader’s office did, through the letter to Moslehi and through Khamenei’s public statements. The Supreme Leader was supported by the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards (see snap analysis opening today's LiveBlog), by clerics from Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to Tehran Friday Prayer leader Kazem Seddiqi, by prominent legislators such as Deputy Speaker of Parliament Bahonar and the 90 MPs who called for questioning of Ahmadinejad, and by the judiciary with the arrests of some in Ahmadinejad’s office (including provocative claims such as “sorcery” and “exorcism”).

This power play by the Supreme Leader’s office might have been countered if some of those groups had given support to Ahmadinejad. None of them did, pointing to his narrow (and arguably shrinking) base for power within the establishment.

Three “red lines” have been set down for the President: 1) no more moves over the Ministry of Intelligence; 2) no manipulation of 2012 Parliamentary elections; 3) no anointing of his right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as a successor

The Latest from Iran (18 March): A Gentle Day?

2040 GMT: Fighting On in Another Year. The opposition's Coordination Council for the Green Path of Hope, has issued a statement for Iranian New Year:

We are well aware that peaceful protests are our fundamental right, as has been recognized and emphasized by the Constitution and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. We are also well aware that defending the rights of the minorities, ethnic groups, and women to create a better Iran is fundamental. We consider it our duty to do whatever we can, so long as we still have breath, to end the detention of the Green Movement's leaders and their wives, who are symbols of resistance and the effort to restore people's rights....We begin the new year with you [the people] with hope for victory.

1835 GMT: Footage, posted on Wednesday, which claims to be of the burning of a banner of the Supreme Leader and the late Ayatollah Khomeini:

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The Latest from Iran (13 March): Troublesome Children?

2140 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Speaking to Iran's governors, President Ahmadinejad has defended his subsidy reduction plan. He said the plan had not yet been fully implements, and people should be careful not to damage it, given the enemy's attempts to undermine the economic initiative.

President said: The law still oriented subsidies are not fully implementing its objectives and should be carefully fully operational in all sections had been careful not to damage it because the enemy into the implementation of this law slapped Chhbsa is looking Ftnhgry

2120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Abdolreza Tajik has been sentenced to six years in prison for "membership in illegal groups" and "propaganda".

Student activist Arzhang Alipour has been arrested.

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The Latest from Iran (12 March): A Challenge from Prison

Tonight's Headline News: The daughters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have met their parents for the first time since Mousavi and Rahnavard were put under strict house arrest on 14 February.

Mousavi, who was not informed of the meeting and so was surprised to see his daughters, told them that agents raided the family home on 14 February --- the day of the first significant opposition marches in Tehran for more than a year --- and confiscated books, CDs, and personal items. The security forces even took classified documents from Mousavi's tenure as Prime Minister in the late 1980s.

The daughters claimed the yard of their parents' home was full of agents and a dark van was parked there. They said they were told to keep quiet about the meeting but believed people had a right to know.

2110 GMT: In the Courts. Mohammad Tahir Haeri Shirazi, the son of President Ahmadinejad's mentor Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi, has been sentenced to six years in prison for land theft.

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The Latest from Iran (19 February): Is That All There Is?

2150 GMT: 1 Esfand. Students at 14 Azad (Technical) Universities around Iran have announced their support of Sunday's rallies.

In an interview with the Green outlet RASA TV, Mir Hossein Mousavi's advisor Ardeshir Amir Arjomand confirms that Sunday's marches go ahead even though Mousavi is under house arrest:

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The Latest from Iran (21 December): Tremors

2030 GMT: Diplomatic Protest. Twenty leading MPs, including Ahmad Tavakoli, Ali Motahari, and Elyas Naderan, have written to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to protest last week's dismissal of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. The MPs have demanded that Parliament's National Security Commission "address the issue as soon as possible".

1850 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Thomas Erdbrink (see 1840 GMT) also reports that business in department stores had fallen off even though Iranians are celebrating Shab-e Yalda, their festival for the winter solstice.

1840 GMT: The Truckers' Strike. Interesting news from Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post in Tehran....

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The Latest from Iran (28 November): Politics Does Not Stop

1625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The names of four of the seven activists detained in Marivan in Iranian Kurdistan have been published.

1550 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The Supreme Leader's represetnative to the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba Zolnour, has renewed the allegation that the children of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- Mehdi Hashemi and Faezeh Hashemi --- were involved in the 2009 "sedition".

The regime has elevated its threats in recent weeks to arrest Mehdi Hashemi, who is currently in London.

1510 GMT: Press Watch. The managing directors of the conservative newspapers Fararu and Tabnak have been convicted of charges in a Tehran court.

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The Latest from Iran (26 November): Connect the Meetings

2055 GMT: Parliament v. President. Ali Motahari, the leader of the movement to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Parliamentary questions, said that the demand will be made after the implementation of subsidy cuts. Motahari again said that there were nearly enough signatories --- 1/4 of the 290 MPs --- to call in Ahmadinejad, and that most of those signing were principlists.

Khabar Online, linked to Speaker Ali Larijani, posts a recent history of Parliament-President relations, documenting how Ahmadinejad has faced possible questioning on several previous occasions.

Khabar also claims that the battle for control of the Central Bank continues. Parliament recently voted to take oversight away from the President.

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The Latest from Iran (16 November): Can the Arrests Be Stopped?

2030 GMT: Un-Diplomatic Behaviour. Well, here's a story to pick up a slow evening. From Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:

France has accused Iranian security services of committing "unacceptable acts of violence" on French diplomatic personnel in Tehran.

The French Foreign Ministry said in a statement today that the entry to the French Embassy residence in Tehran was blocked by unidentified officials on November 14.

French officials said plainclothes security officers struck at least two French diplomats and arrested guests arriving at the residence of Ambassador Bernard Poletti for a concert of Persian music.

The statement said that French authorities this morning summoned the Iranian ambassador in Paris "to express their strongest condemnation."

There have been no comments from Tehran on the incident.

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The Latest from Iran (2 November): Honouring an Un-Free Press

2135 GMT: Speak Up. Darioush Ghanbari, the spokesman of the minority in Parliament, has called on reformists to break their silence and express their viewpoints about the issues facing the country: “In the current situation, it is necessary that reformists, especially the reformist parliamentarians, express their criticisms… because in this way people become informed about the issues and our identity as a political group is recognized in the Majlis.”

2130 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Iran's Deputy Minister of Trade has given shopkeepers a 48-hour ultimatum to "adjust" prices so they will be acceptable.

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Fararu claims that the cleric who requested the release of prominent reformist politician Ali Shakouri Rad was Ayatollah Shobeiri Zanjani (see the claim by Iran's Prosecutor General in yesterday's updates).

Another son-in-law Of Molavi Abdul Hamid, Zahedan's Friday Prayer leader, has been arrested.

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