The Latest from Iran (18 January): Challenging Khamenei

Nikahang Kowsar draws inspiration from the victory of Ashgar Farhad's film at the Golden Globes Awards to suggest a remake, "Supreme and Mahmoud: A Separation"

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1940 GMT: Currency Watch. Suddenly the Iranian Rial has plummeted on the leading currency site Meshgal. It has fallen 3.5% in a few hours to a record low of 18200:1 vs. the US dollar.

Before the Central Bank and authorities intervened in recent weeks --- through an "ordered" rate, attempted arrests of street traders, and blocks on websites including Mesghal --- the low point for the Rial was 17800:1.

1520 GMT: Currency Watch. ISNA reports that foreign exchange offices have stopped the sale of US dollars, even by phone, for fear of being closed down for not adhering to the "ordered" rate of the Central Bank.

The Central Bank's command was for 14000 Iranian Rials to 1 US $, but the rate on the streets is 17500:1.

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The Latest from Iran (30 December): We're Tough, All is Well, We're Tough, Repeat

See also Iran Feature: The Bluster That Hides Human Rights
The Latest from Iran (29 December): Ahmadinejad on the Campaign Trail

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A Hovercraft in This Week's Naval Exercises2055 GMT: Sedition Watch. Mohammad Reza Khatami, a prominent reformist and the brother of the former President, has issued a public statement challenging the "false, baseless, and repetitive claims" in the report sent to Parliament, claiming a foreign-backed plot at "velvet revolution" after the 2009 Presidential election.

2045 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Lawyers for Iran’s Central Bank are preparing to file a motion in a New York federal court to release nearly $2 billion of frozen funds at Citigroup Inc.’s Citibank unit.

The assets were frozen in 2008 after a group of 1,000 victims of international terrorism sought the money as partial payment for a $2.7 billion judgement made against Tehran for its alleged role in the 1983 bombing of a Marine Corps barracks in Beirut that killed 241 people.

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The Latest from Iran (28 December): Look! State-of-the-Art Torpedoes!

See also Iran Feature: Former Detainee Sarah Shourd "The Plight of Iranians and 3 Decades of US Foreign Policy"
The Latest from Iran (27 December): Election Watch

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2110 GMT: The Battle Within (Literally). More on Tuesday's fight on the floor of Parliament, with the manager of President Ahmadinejad's subsidy cuts, Behrouz Moradi, swinging at an MP....

Moradi, who was expelled by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani after the fight, reportedly called Parliament a "stable". Larijani has called for the prosecution of the official over the incident.

BBC Persian has video.

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The Latest from Iran (21 December): It's The Economy, Mahmoud

See also Iran Snap Analysis: The Currency Falls --- What Does It Mean?
The Latest from Iran (20 December): The Strains Within

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1705 GMT: Oil Watch. A bit of good news for Tehran amidst the economic pressure on the regime, including the possibility of a European Union ban on supplies of oil from Iran....

Turkey's biggest crude oil importer Tupras has renewed its annual deal to buy crude oil from Iran for 2012, at almost the same volumes as this year, according to industry sources.

China's top refiner Sinopec Corp said that buy less than half the crude it normally imports from Iran in January.

1655 GMT: Najmeh Bozorgmehr of The Financial Times offers valuable interpretation of the currency crisis:

The managed float mechanism has collapsed for much of this year. The central bank’s adoption of a multiple-rate system has also failed to bring back stability to the market and to foil the impact of international sanctions aimed at Tehran’s nuclear programme. Sanctions have caused the cost of financial transactions to increase, by forcing them to go through numerous back channels, and have hit foreign currency markets by reducing the supply of cash.

But there are also domestic dynamics at play. While the market remains anxious about the possibility of a European Union oil embargo and the US imposing sanctions on the central bank, local media have accused the government of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, president, of engineering a deliberate devaluation to boost the rial value of its oil income in the final months of the fiscal year to March.

Economists and parliamentarians have predicted this year’s budget deficit could be as high as $30bn, or 7 per cent of the country’s GDP.

The government is due to present its budget bill to parliament soon and some analysts believe the government is allowing the rial to weaken to reset the official exchange rate to the dollar in the budget, which has traditionally sat around the 10,000 mark.

But Iran’s minister of economy and finance, Shamsoddin Hosseini, on Wednesday denied any such intention. “The government has had no, [absolutely] no deliberate plan to strengthen the dollar rate,” he said, and promised to announce “a plan to manage the market” soon.

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Iran Feature: The Supreme Leader Is Worried --- Three Developments You Probably Don't Know

Followers of our daily coverage of Iran will be aware of the political tensions that have gripped the Islamic Republic's establishment. Those battles, from charges of corruption to warning of a "deviant current" affecting the Government, will only grow in intensity before next March's Parliamentary elections.

Yet EA sources have given us a story that goes even farther. The core of the tale is the belief amongst many observers in Iran that, despite all the attacks upon it, the President's camp will be the winner in the elections. Whether or not that assessment is correct, the Supreme Leader's advisors are concerned.

In recent weeks, those advisors have taken several steps. Among those measures are the pursuit of a new political ally --- at least in the short-term --- to check an Ahmadinejad success at the polls in March, Ayatollah Khamenei's people are seeking out reformists to call for their participation in the elections.

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Iran Special Analysis: The Security Forces Cross Ahmadinejad's "Red Line"

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There was a telling moment in the drama yesterday. As his senior advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr was sitting in a chair in handcuffs, his face bruised, as 33 staff of Iran were arrested, as the building was ransacked, the President had to call the security forces and ask them to back off. They did so (after speaking with whom?), to the point of letting Javanfekr avoid immediate detention, but the point was made.

Beg, Mahmoud. Beg us to let you and your advisors survive.

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Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad --- A Phoenix Rising from the Ashes?

Ahmadinejad may slip some of the immediate shackles. As we noted yesterday, he is no mug, with a tenacity and determination that has prevailed over many of his political foes. But he faces checks at every turn. His economic high-point of the subsidy cuts packages has quickly descended, amidst problems with the programme, wider economic tensions, and the $2.6 billion bank fraud. His play for renewed discussions with the US appears to be going nowhere fast (thanks to both the US and to his domestic opponents). And his political base is shrinking rather than than expanding.

The pendulum does not swing that far. Rocky does not throw a climactic punch. The Phoenix does not rise.

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The Latest from Iran (7 November): The Week of Dangerously Missing the Point

See also Iran Special: Decoding Ahmadinejad --- Did He Just Declare the "Final Confrontation" Within the Establishment?
Iran Analysis: The Week in "Objective" US Journalism --- War, War, Secret War, Future War, War
Iran Feature: Explaining the Israeli "War Talk" --- Look to the Domestic Politics...And Who Wins
The Latest from Iran (6 November): Beyond the Israeli Diversion

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2015 GMT: The Battle Within. Reports in the Iran media today that the Supreme Leader has ordered his aides to review the "faults" in the Constitution --- is this another signal of a move to a Prime Minister chosen by Parliament, rather than a President chosen by the people?

1945 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. MP Emad Afrough, a former Ahmadinejad supporter, has criticised the President for attacking the judiciary, saying that Ahmadinejad apparently believes that his sensational approach is the only way to stay in power.

Afrough added the jibe that the President seems to "believe that running around, physical presence, and scandalous speeches are 'work'".

Journalist Mehdi Mahdavi-Azad offers the analysis that Ahmadinejad has challenged the Supreme Leader and attacked the Larijani brothers --- one the Speaker of Parliament, another the head of judiciary --- intimidating them with claims of the files of a huge land robbery.

Mahdavi-Azad parallels our analysis when he assesses that, when Ahmadinejad had control over Iran's intelligence services, he sorted out large amounts of secret files about his political opponents and is now using the information to contain them.

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The Latest from Iran (24 October): How To Instantly Become an Iranian Citizen

See also Iran Video Interview: Ahmadinejad Puts Out His Standard Lines to CNN's Zakaria
The Latest from Iran (23 October): Qaddafi Visits the Supreme Leader

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1835 GMT: No-Irony-at-All Elections Watch. A leading member of the Islamic Constancy Front, Morteza Agha Tehrani, has urged authorities to safeguard the coming elections and ensure that “votes are not stolen and there is no cheating".

The Constancy Front was established earlier this year by supporters of President Ahmadinejad and his allies. It has been at odds with other conservative factions who have sought a unified front for next March's Parliamentary vote.

In a meeting on Saturday in Qom, Agha Tehrani said: “If you truly want competent people to be elected to office, do not steal or buy votes and do not cheat.”

1605 GMT: CyberCrime. Minister of Communications and Technology Reza Taghipour has declared that the use of VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) and proxies is a “crime": “Now VPNs have been cut off in the country because their use is a legal violation.”

With a VPN, Internet users can get access to internet providers outside Iran by using ISPs within the country. Iranians have been using the VPNs and proxies to circumvent strict censorship by the Islamic Republic of foreign and domestic websites.

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The Latest from Iran (20 October): 240 Days of House Arrest

Iran Feature: A "Son of Stuxnet" Attack Against Tehran's Computers?
Iran Video: Anything to See Here? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Interview with Al Jazeera English
The Latest from Iran (19 October): Tehran Embraces Occupy Wall Street

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2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The six-year prison sentence of journalist Abdolreza Tajik has been confirmed by an appeals court.

Tajik was arrested in June 2010 and charged with acting against national security, propagating against the regime, and collaborating with the Centre for the Defence of Human Rights, co-founded by Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi.

Tajik has worked for several reformist newspapers.

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