Iraq Feature: The Costs of a War (Duss/Juul)

The ceremony in Iraq marking the end of the US intervention

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Total Costs

Total deaths: Between 110,663 and 119,380

Coalition deaths: 4,803
U.S. deaths: 4,484
U.S. wounded: 32,200
U.S. deaths as a percentage of coalition deaths: 93.37 percent
Iraqi Security Force, or ISF, deaths: At least 10,125
Total coalition and ISF deaths: At least 14,926
Iraqi civilian deaths: Between 103,674 and 113,265
Non-Iraqi contractor deaths: At least 463
Internally displaced persons: 1.24 million
Refugees: More than 1.6 million

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Iraq Feature: Why the US Troops Are Finally Leaving (Hint: It's Not Obama)

President Obama’s speech formally declaring that the last 43,000 U.S. troops will leave Iraq by the end of the year was designed to mask an unpleasant truth: The troops aren’t being withdrawn because the U.S. wants them out. They’re leaving because the Iraqi government refused to let them stay.

Obama campaigned on ending the war in Iraq but had instead spent the past few months trying to extend it. A 2008 security deal between Washington and Baghdad called for all American forces to leave Iraq by the end of the year, but the White House -- anxious about growing Iranian influence and Iraq’s continuing political and security challenges -- publicly and privately tried to sell the Iraqis on a troop extension. As recently as last week, the White House was trying to persuade the Iraqis to allow 2,000-3,000 troops to stay beyond the end of the year.

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Yemen, Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Who's in Charge Here?

See also US and the World (Video and Transcript): President Obama to UN General Assembly "Peace is Hard"
Yemen Analysis: The Latest Deaths and the Mistakes of US Policy
Wednesday's Syria, Yemen, Bahrain (and Beyond): A "Win-Win" Protest?

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2125 GMT: Another photo of the mass opposition rally in the Bahraini capital Manama today:

2105 GMT: Claimed footage of men trying to rescue a shot companion from a street in Talbiseh in Homs Province in Syria:

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Libya, Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: The State of the Uprisings

2118 GMT: The LCCS is reporting that live ammunition and tear gas has been fired at protests in Douma, Damascus, in front of the Al Watani hospital. Also, a reliable activist in Syria who uses the pseudonym "Alexander Page" has an unconfirmed report that security forces are using ambulances to drive into protests in Qatana, Damascus, and they are shooting at the protesters from the back of the vehicles. Many activists are reporting that protesters are being arrested and harassed in and around Damascus tonight.

2110 GMT: Protests after Taraweeh prayers tonight, Zabadani, Damascus, Syria:

2103 GMT: Activists are reporting the presence of 30,000 protesters on the streets of Homs. We can't verify that number, but what we do know is that the amount of video coming from the city, like this one, from different sources and from different areas, suggests that in Homs, and around Damascus, the crowds tonight are very large:

2050 GMT: A very large anti-government demonstration in an important suburb of Damascus, Harasta, earlier today:

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The Latest from Iran (29 July): And Now We Bring You This Diversion....

Atiyah Abd al-Rahman (0615 GMT)1905 GMT: Oil and Politics. Even though he has not been approved as Minister of Oil by Parliament, Rustam Qassemi --- Revolutionary Guards commander and head of its engineering branch, Khatam al-Anbia --- has called a Saturday meeting of the Ministry's staff and experts in the industry.

Why such a hurry? An EA correspondent observes that a Tehran conference has noted that Qatar is taking 450,000 barrels of oil per day from the South Pars field --- and Iran is taking 0.

Our correspondent mischievously follows up, "[Qassemi is] trying to save his assets after yesterday's conference."

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Iraq LiveBlog: Thousands Protest Against Al-Maliki's Government

1405 GMT: Raed Jarrar, an analyst based in Washington, is reporting that "Iraqi authorities shut down universities in Erbil, Basrah and other Iraqi cities as of today in anticipation to nation-wide protests."

1105 GMT: Sammy Ketz summarised the protests so far in Iraq for AFP:

Protesters in the capital [Baghdad] were forced to walk to the rally site as security forces imposed a vehicle ban, a day after Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki claimed the demonstrations were being organised by Al-Qaeda insurgents and loyalists of deposed dictator Saddam Hussein.

Though most of the protests were largely peaceful, clashes between security forces and demonstrators at rallies in the northern city of Mosul and the town of Hawija left seven dead and dozens wounded, while separate rallies in north and west Iraq left a total of eight others injured.

In the capital, troops and police were deployed in force at Tahrir Square, where around 5,000 demonstrators had gathered, and security forces erected concrete blast walls to block entrance to Jumhuriyah bridge, which connects the demonstration site to Baghdad's heavily-fortified Green Zone.

Protesters nevertheless managed to overturn two of the walls, with some of them attempting to cross the bridge. Several lines of anti-riot police quickly blocked it off, however.

An Iraqi MP Sabah al-Saadi attempted to meet with a group of the demonstrators but was met with shouts and jeers upon his arrival, with one protesters asking, "Why are MPs taking millions of dinars (thousands of dollars) in salary?"

"You have to cut your salary -- we have nothing! Why are you taking so much money when we have no money?"

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Iraq Analysis: The Return of Moqtada al-Sadr

On Wednesday, the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, having succeeded for seven years in evading assassination or capture by US forces and spending much of that time in Iran, returned to Iraq. He did so as the leader of a significant faction in Iraqi politics --- its 40 seats in Parliament are second amongst Shi'a parties, surpassed only by the supporters of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki --- and on the Iraqi streets.

US forces may have tried to remove Sadr from the Iraqi scene, but the politics is now far beyond them, as the cleric tries to build on his position.

Next step? A "very important" speech in Najaf on Saturday.

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Iraq Analysis: Is PM al-Maliki Holding Firm for US Withdrawal? (Cole)

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki made news this week with his interview in The Wall Street Journal, in the course of which he insisted that all US troops would be out of Iraq by January 1, 2012:

WSJ: Some American officials have spoken about contingency plans being drawn now in Washington for the possibility that some American troops will stay after 2011. Do you know about these contingency plans, and do you need troops?

Mr. Maliki: I do not care about what’s being said. I care about what’s on paper and what has been agreed to. The withdrawal of forces agreement [Status of Forces Agreement or SOFA] expires on Dec. 31, 2011. The last American soldier will leave Iraq.

Secondly this agreement is sealed and at the time we designated it as sealed and not subject to extension, except if the new government with Parliament’s approval wanted to reach a new agreement with America, or another country, that’s another matter. This agreement is not subject to extension, not subject to alteration, it is sealed, it expires on Dec. 31 [2011]. 

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Wikileaks and Iraq: Comparing the Threats from Saudi Arabia and Iran

What is notable here is the divergence between the analysis of the Saudi and Iranian threats to Iraq and the recommendations for the way forward.

Proposed US action on the Saudis is limited to "keeping up the pressure on Egypt and Saudi Arabia in particular to return their Ambassadors [to Baghdad]" and general invocation to "caution Iraq's Arab neighbors against efforts to inflame Shia-Sunni anxieties through their support for Sunni parties and by Shia-critical media attacks".

In contrast, Tehran retains its special place as Number One Adversary, its presence used to link Iraq with others in the area in an American partnership: "We will need to flesh out ideas for a post-GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] security architecture that includes Iraq more fully, develops ways to contain Iranian regional influence, and shapes the special position Iraq will likely occupy in the Gulf in ways that further our interests and those of our Gulf partners."

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Iraq Snapshot: The Normal of Gridlock and Death (Shadid)

Ten people died at Aroba Square, near a gold-domed shrine in the capital, where a bomber strolled a little after sunset before he blew himself up.

The day after, no one would know that. Electrical wires dangled, billboards were torn, lights were shattered and windows were broken. But that describes anywhere in Baghdad, a city more neglected than destroyed, living on bitter nostalgia.

The scene was ordinary. And that angered Hassan al-Bahadli on Wednesday.

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