The Latest from Iran (20 June): Nuclear Talks Over, Sanctions on the Way

Claimed photograph of a memorial on Tuesday at the grave of Neda Agha Soltan, killed by a gunshot during the protests of 20 June 2009

See also Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks --- The West Looks for an Iranian Crash
Remember Iran Flashback: 20 June 2009 --- The Death of Neda...And Many Others
Middle East and Iran Audio Feature: "Oil and Politics" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Latest from #Iran (19 June): An Opening at Nuclear Talks? (No.)

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1141 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Rear Admiral Abbas Zamini has declared that Iran will soon unveil 10 new domestically-built frigates and destroyers.

The Islamic Republic's first home-constructed destroyer was launched in 2010. Another destroyer will supposedly by completed by March 2013.

0926 GMT: Oil Watch. The Japanese Parliament has approved Government guarantees on insurance for crude oil cargoes from Iran, responding to imminent European Union sanctions.

The law will take effect on June 27. It allows the Japanese government, which has succeeded in getting a waiver from U.S. financial sanctions, to provide cover of up to $7.6 billion for each tanker.

The EU sanctions, starting on 1 July, prohibit European insurance firms from covering Iran's exports.

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The Latest from Iran (19 June): An Opening at the Nuclear Talks?

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- #RememberIran, Arrest of Labour Activists, House of Cinema Closed
Iran Audio Analysis: The Moscow Nuclear Talks --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, The Supreme Leader Draws the Line on Protests
Remember Iran Flashback: 19 June 2009 Live Coverage --- The Supreme Leader Declares "The Outcome is Final"
The Latest from Iran (18 June): The Nuclear Talks in Moscow

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2010 GMT: CyberWar Watch. "Western officials" have told Washington Post reporters that the US and Israel jointly developed the Flame computer virus, operating for several years but recently exposed.

Flame, which mined data, was designed to map Iran’s computer networks and monitor them, sending back a steady stream of intelligence for an ongoing cyberwarfare campaign. That campaign included the Stuxnet virus, which has caused malfunctions in computers linked to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iranian authorities revealed last month that Flame had been used against computers for the country's oil industry. The Western officials said that was a unilateral Israeli operation of which the US had no knowledge.

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Iran Audio Analysis: The Moscow Nuclear Talks --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

EU's Catherine Ashton & Iran's Saeed JaliliLast night I spent more than 10 minutes with Monocle 24, setting out the issues at the nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) and assessing the day's developments.

The conclusion? Despite my pessimism before the talks and throughout the day over the discussions, there may be an opening for negotiations with Iran's five-point proposal on uranium enrichment and eased sanctions --- provided the US and Europe want an agreement short of a capitulation by Tehran, provided the details back up the general outline of the proposal, and provided the talks are not diverted by issues like intervention in Syria.

All big ifs.....

The discussion starts at the 17:53 mark.

The Latest from Iran (18 June): The Nuclear Talks in Moscow

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Supreme Leader's Dilemma
Remember Iran Flashback: Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter
The Latest from Iran (17 June): "So What?" News --- Ahmadinejad to Leave Politics

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2046 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Julian Borger of The Guardian reveals both the Iranian PowerPoint presentation rejecting the 5+1 proposal of "stop, shut, and ship" 20% enriched uranium and Tehran's five-point plan:

1) The right to enrich uranium, coupled with the 'operationalisation' of the Supreme Leader's fatwa against nuclear weapons. [Lead Iranian negotiator Saeed] Jalili suggested this could be done in the form of a UN document, in which Iran promised not to pursue weapons in return for continuing to enrich;

2) Relief from sanctions in return for cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency;

3) Nuclear cooperation in the fields of civilian nuclear energy production and nuclear safety;

4) Confidence-building measures, possibly involving limits on production of 20% uranium;

5) Non-nuclear issues like cooperation on counter-narcotics plus regional matters like Syria and Bahrain.

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The Latest from Iran (16 June): Preparing for the Nuclear Talks

See also Remember Iran Video: The Surprise of the Protests (Marandi/Ehteshami/Lucas)
Remember Iran Flashback: Four Scenarios for a Vote Recount (Emery)
Remember Iran Flashback: 16 June 2009 Live Coverage --- A Compromise by the Regime?
The Latest from Iran (15 June): Politics and Corruption

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1608 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back to our opening entry, with President Ahmadinejad hugging the optimistic portion of the regime line (see 0510 GMT), "We are ready on a voluntary basis to make a positive step if the other party makes a similar step. We hope that we will make progress in Moscow."

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The Latest from Iran (12 June): Three Years Ago Today

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special
Remember Iran: A Day That Changed the Country, the Region, and the Media
Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From Political Prisoners in Danger to Pepsi's Logo on the Moon
Remember Iran: A Preview of the Presidential Election (11 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: "How Not to Cover Iran's Elections --- The Awards Ceremony" (12 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): A Fraud Case Reaches the Government

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Photo: AFP/Getty1940 GMT: Economy Watch. The World Bank has projected that Iran’s economy will shrink 1% this year.

“Product boycotts and financial sanctions are expected to exact a toll on growth over 2012 and 2013,” the Bank said in a report published Tuesday. It predicted a further contraction of 0.7% next year.

1900 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. In a further sign of a strategy moving Turkey away from imports of Iranian oil, Ankara has begun discussions with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude purchases.

Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz said today, "Talks with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude oil purchases have started. This doesn't concern only [Turkish refiner] Tupras but also concerns Saudi Arabia's Aramco. Talks are still going on; they will discuss the quantities between them."

On Monday, the US said it would exempt Turkey from financial sanctions because it has cut purchases of Tehran's oil. A report this week indicated that Turkish imports fell 45% between March and May.

A US diplomat indicated that Washington granted the waiver with the expectation of further cuts, "So Turkey now has 180 days, Tupras has 180 days to take a look at its oil situation to decide - can it reduce further, can it get to zero? - what it needs to do."

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The Latest from Iran (11 June): A Fraud Case Reaches the Government

2030 GMT: Fraud Watch. Next week's Moscow talks on Iran's nuclear programme will proceed after European Union foreign policy representative Catherine Ashton and top Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili spoke for one hour on the phone tonight.

There was chatter that the discussions were in jeopardy after days of increasingly negative exchanges in the media between the two sides, but a Western diplomat said, “Moscow is a green light."

A European diplomat maintained that the US and Europe had held the line on no preparatory talks before Moscow, unless Iran discussed issues of political substance: “Jalili went on and on about need for a technical meeting. Ashton stayed firm.” He continued:

[The Iranians] have now backed down from that and appear prepared to engage on our proposals, which is important for us. We will respond to their ideas --- note the different terminology. We have concrete proposals, they have issues/ideas.

A spokesman for Ashton set out the apparent deal: Ashton and Jalili “agreed on the need for Iran to engage on the E3+3 proposals", while Ashton "conveyed the E3+3′s readiness to respond to the issues raised by the Iranians in Baghdad".

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The Latest from Iran (7 June): Nuclear Talks Fallout

See also Iran Letter: An Appeal for the Iranian Journalists and Activists in Turkey
The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Oil Squeeze

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2025 GMT: Book Corner. Bahman Dorri, a deputy in the Ministry of Culture, has said that the prominent publishing house Cheshmeh lost its license because it "insulted religious beliefs".

2011 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. While President Ahmadinejad is in Beijing trying to bolster his domestic position by displaying his international status, his critics are offering a challenge.

Following the disruption of the President's speech last weekend on the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death, Tehran Friday Prayers leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the temporary , has criticised Ahmadinejad for strengthening the sense of Iranian nationalism, rather than an Islam-first approach: "He either does not read the Qur'an or does not understand the Shahnameh [the "Book of Kings" by the poet Ferdowsi].”

Khatami added, “For 33 years, religion has run this country. Those who are in power today should be careful about what they say. Strengthening the sense of nationalism is one of [President] Obama’s priorities."

On another front, Mustafa Pourmohammadi, Iran's Inspector General, has again accused Ahmadinejad of preventing investigations into the $2.6 billion bank fraud: "The Government tried so hard to prevent the outbreak of the fraud news in the first place and then the follow-up investigations with the excuse that this case will harm the economic system.”

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The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Oil Squeeze

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From #SaveMaleki to the "Shoot the Apostate" Video Games
Russia Audio Feature: Moscow's Manoeuvres With Iran --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
The Latest from Iran (5 June): The House Arrests

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2028 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Hossein Alavi, a member of the student alumni group Advar Tahkim Vahdat and a supporter of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been arrested after being summoned to Zanjan’s Intelligence Bureau.

1913 GMT: Devious West Watch. Sohrab Salehi, the head of the Basij Professors Organization has asserted that, by imposing sanctions, the West wants to present the Supreme Leader as the main cause of inflation in Iran.

Look for more of this in the near-future from higher-level officials. If the nuclear talks collapse --- which I think is probable, given today's signals --- and when the European Union's cut-off of imports of Iranian oil takes effect from 1 July, the Islamic Republic's officials will need someone to break for the escalating economic tensions in Iran. Since that "someone" cannot be Ayatollah Khamenei, the "West" will have the lead role of villain.

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The Latest from Iran (25 May): On to The "Last Chance" Nuclear Talks in Moscow

Nikahang Kowsar on "time" and the Supreme Leader after the Baghdad nuclear talks

See also Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next
Iran Document: Statement By EU's Catherine Ashton After Baghdad Talks
The Latest from Iran (24 May): Day 2 of the Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

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1803 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Journalist Scott Peterson has a telling follow-up quote from an Iranian diplomat who was speaking with him throughout the Baghdad talks, "I think [they were] a complete failure, in terms of content. The more they talk, the worse it gets."

Peterson's description makes clear that a tough opening proposal by the 5+1 Powers did not include a reference to easing of sanctions or a recognition of the level of enrichment that would be acceptable inside Iran.

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