Iran, Sanctions, and War: The Obama Administration Spins Out of Control

Many may perceive the message in Thursday's New York Times article --- again, even though there is no evidence that the "senior Administration official" is presenting an agreed point of view --- as one advocating military action.

That's pretty stupid, given that others in the Administration --- like the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen --- have been trying to talk down the idea of military intervention and have been reminding the Israelis that the US Government is opposed to an airstrike on Iran.

It's not even a sensible political manoeuvre. The Ahmadinejad Government is likely to seize upon this as proof of America's hypocrisy --- they talk negotiations, but they mean conflict --- and unrelenting hostility towards the Iranian people. Rather than fold to the mounting economic pressure that the Administration official envisages, the Government and the Supreme Leader will use this further sign of the "enemy" to try and rally support to offset the economic difficulties.

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The Latest from Iran (27 October): In Transit

2130 GMT: Corruption Watch. According to Peyke Iran, former Minister of Interior Mostafa Pourmohammadi has said that, on behalf of the Supreme Leader, consideration of some files of economic fraud has been postponed.

2115 GMT: Rafsanjani vs. the Islamic Republic? Hossein Salami, the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard, has declared that if Islamic values disintegrate, Iran will proceed to a collapse.

So who could pose such a threat to Islamic values? Khabar Online has an intriguing reference: the arrest of sedition leaders was discussed in the National Security Council, but President Ahmadinejad did not present documents for his allegations against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

2045 GMT: The Khamenei Roadshow. So what did the Supreme Leader do on the 9th day of his stay in Qom?

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Iran and Sanctions Video: Scott Lucas and Sadegh Zibakalam on Al Jazeera's "Inside Story"

EA's Scott Lucas and Professor Sadegh Zibakalam of Tehran University discuss sanctions and Iran on Al Jazeera's "Inside Story":

Iran Feature: Oil Squeeze May Ground Tehran's Airplanes in Europe

Thomas Erdbrink, writing in The Washington Post, claims that the cut-off of oil exports by four of Europe's five largest companies is having an effect: Iran Air is unable to refuel its planes in most of Europe.

Note also the US Government's public-relations line: the sanctions are going to hurt Iranian people but their anger should be directed at their government, not Washington.

This summer Iran Air planes briefly faced problems with fuelling in Europe. If true, this story indicates that the problem is now far more serious and will be long-term.

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The Latest from Iran (17 October): How Much Can Regime PR Do?

2020 GMT: Subsidy Watch. Pro-Government MP Jafar Qaderi has said that in future support payments for subsidy cuts will be paid in goods.

1725 GMT: Rumour of Day. Rah-e-Sabz claims that the Ministry of Intelligence has detained a delegation sent by Hashemi Rafsanjani to Qom in advance of the Supreme Leader's visit.

1710 GMT: Currency Watch. Khabar Online reports that the value of the Iranian toman, after weeks of attempts to stabilise its value, has now dropped on the open market. While the "official" Central Bank rate is 1050 tomans to the US dollar, the market rate has now reached 1090 tomans to the dollar.

1555 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Islamic Iran Participation Front member Davoud Solaimani, who was released on bail on Thursday, returned to Rajai Shahr Prison today when a prosecutor refused to confirm his temporary leave.

Soleimani was detained soon after the June 2009 elections.

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Iran Video and Transcript: Top US Official Stuart Levey on Sanctions

Stuart Levey, Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence in the US Treasury, spoke for 50 minutes with Charlie Rose of the US Public Broadcasting Service on Wednesday about sanctions and economic pressure. Much of the discussion was about Washington's strategy and tactics and Levey's assessment of the economic and political effects on Tehran.

Whether or not one agrees whether sanctions are working, or indeed whether it is the right approach to Iran, the interview is a revelation of how the Obama Administration has pursued the approach --- note Levey's "personal diplomacy" with dozens of trips to foreign governments, companies, and banks --- and its belief that the measures are working:

CHARLIE ROSE: How bad is their economy today?

STUART LEVEY: It’s interesting, because I think their economy is a lot worse than they try to present it as being.

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The Latest from Iran (1 October): Challenging the Supreme Leader, Trying the Hikers

1945 GMT: Breaking the Reformists (cont.). Press TV gives the regime line on the arrest of Freedom Movement of Iran leaders Ebrahim Yazdi and Hashem Sabbaghian (see 1710 GMT).

Yazdi and Sabbaghian were arrested after they appeared in a Friday Prayers mass "led by a well-known Wahhabi element" in Isfahan. Iranian authorities had ordered the cancellation of prayers by the "extremist elements" but Yazdi and Sabbaghian had encouraged the Wahhabi figures to persist. Despite a pledge to give up his illegal behaviour, Yazdi has" reportedly expanded the scope of his group's activities". 

1830 GMT: The Powers of the Guards Expand. Peyke Iran reports what we have just learned from sources: the internal security duties of the Ministry of Intelligence have been handed to the Revolutionary Guard.

1825 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh reports that the implementation of the Government's subsidy cuts plan has been delayed from October to November.

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Iran Video: Hillary Clinton Announces Rights-First Sanctions

Iran Feature: Top Tehran Analyst Zibakalam "Sanctions Have Worked"

These remarks from Professor Sadegh Zibakalam, one of Iran's top analysts of international affairs are striking, especially when set against President Ahmadinejad's all-is-well assurances. They were featured in Aftab News last week:

We should not wonder why the Koreans have joined the group of countries sanctioning us....South Korea exports $40 billion worth of car parts to the United States. Should Korea not give into American pressure, it could lose the American market....

I believe the next countries to sanction Iran will be China and Turkey....Turkey exports $15 billion to the 25 countries of the European Union each year. Should the EU give Turkey trouble and should Turkey be forced to choose between Iran and the EU, it is only natural that the Turks will choose them, just like...when Japan and South Korea chose to do so.

It would be most unpleasant if the Americans make trouble for the Chinese....China has for some time decreased its investments in and oil purchases from Iran. There was a time when we were the second-largest oil exporter to China in the Persian Gulf region, but today we come in eighth. Our oil exports to China have decreased to 200,000 barrels per day from 800,000 barrels per day.

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