Iran Interview: Middle Class Suffers, But Regime Will Take "Fair Package Deal" on Nuclear Program --- Iranian Analyst

The middle class feels it more than other sectors. The poor remain poor, and as always, rich people are less affected. It is the middle class --- the sector which protested the most for change in Iran following the 2009 elections, and the people who have the potential to change --- who have been hit the hardest, because they are becoming poor, and their influence diminishes. It follows that the sanctions decrease the likelihood of political change in Iran. People are increasingly dependent on the government, and the likelihood of an uprising while risking their source of income, will be lower.

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Iran Feature: Regime to Media "Print Only Hope and Joy About Sanctions"

Tehran Chief Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has called on the press and broadcasters to adopt the right tone in coveraage of the economy and sanctions:

It is expected that the media take more responsibility and understand the circumstances of [the country's] situation, and refrain from painting a bleak picture and exaggerating the problems. Instead, [the media] should create an atmosphere of hope and joy to prove that they can become a major asset in defending the Islamic Revolution.

And, in a twist, Doulatabadi gets his good news from another Western reporter, Clyde Russell of Reuters.

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Iran 1st-Hand: The Squeeze of the Sanctions (Davari)

Leila is getting pretty good at playing Angry Birds on her imported iPhone. Sitting behind her desk in an idle travel agency in central Tehran, she often has nothing better to do these days.

 "As you can see, business isn't so good," she says, gesturing at the drab, empty office.

"Last summer, I was constantly on the phone arguing with customers why there were no last-minute tickets available. Now, on a good day --- if we're lucky --- we might barely get to sell to capacity on a flight."

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Syria Audio Feature: "How Significant Are Sanctions?" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist programme this morning to consider, amid latest sanctions by the European Union and Australia, the effectiveness of economic pressure on the Assad regime. Can the steps lead to President Assad's withdrawal from power? Will Russia and/or China help Damascus resist? 

To get to the programme, launch Monocle 24's Timeshift and click on the Globalist 24 icon.

The discussion starts at the 10:41 mark.

Iran Opinion: Turning the Islamic Republic into North Korea --- Does It Help the Situation?

The problem with harsh sanctions is the speculative nature of the exercise of implementing often inhuman measures on entire populations for the deeds of their undemocratic, unelected, and dictatorial rulers. Suppose these sanctions are implemented. We do not have an example to show that a country like Iran will halt its nuclear programme. However, we do have a North Korea, hobbled by sanctions for years and attempting to become economically self-sufficient, where the regime chooses to make its people suffer to attain nuclear weapons.

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Iran Video: Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera - Tehran, China, & US Sanctions

I appeared on Al Jazeera English's Inside Story on Wednesday, with Professor Sadegh Zibakalam and former Iranian diplomat Mehrdad Khansari, to discuss US efforts for tightened Chinese sanctions on Tehran.

The headline is easy enough: Beijing will not publicly back the US effort. Far more interesting are the complexities beyond --- China's private position, which may include a continued decrease in supplies from Iran; the restrictions on Tehran's oil from other customers, such as Japan and the European Union; and Iran's internal economic situation.

It was interesting to me to hear the difference of approach on that latter issue --- for me, it is even more important than the US manoeuvres; for Professor Zibakalam, it seemed secondary to the regime's manipulation of "sanctions" to hold public support. And I also noted the very different perspectives among the panellists on the Straits of Hormuz issue and the prospect of war.

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Iran Feature: China Curbs Iran Energy Work

Reuters reports that China is pulling the plug on plans to invest heavily in Iran's oil industry, in large part in order to escape US Sanctions and the ire of the US State Department. The opposite claim is being made by the Iranian regime and its state-run media, that China is set to invest $8.4 billion in the Azadegan oilfield.

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China has put the brakes on oil and gas investments in Iran, drawing ire from Tehran over a pullback that officials and executives said reflected Beijing's efforts to appease Washington and avoid U.S. sanctions on its big energy firms.

The stakes are high for OPEC's second-largest producer, as China is one of the only powers on the international political stage capable of providing the billions of dollars of investment Tehran needs to maintain the capacity of its strategic oil sector.

Four energy executives in Beijing described retreats and slowdowns of Chinese ventures in Iran in recent months, even as China has bought more crude from its Middle East partner, which leans on Beijing for backing and investment to counter sanctions over its disputed nuclear plans.

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Syria Special: Diane Rehm - Escalating Violence in Syria

In this Friday, July 22, 2011, a citizen journalism image made on a mobile phone and provided by Shaam News Network, Syrian anti-regime protesters gather during a rally in al-Assy square in the western city of Hama, Syria. The Arabic on banner reads:"we will never forget our martyrs and prisoners." A citizen journalism image/AP

Diane Rehm and a panel of experts do an excellent job of summing up the most current news, but the panel also addressed some of the most important questions about the conflict: Why haven't there been larger protests in Aleppo, what are Assad's tactics, what is the role of sectarianism or ethnicity in the conflict, and how might international sanctions effect the regime.

LISTEN TO THE SHOW - ESCALATING VIOLENCE IN SYRIA

Read the Complete Transcript here...

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The Latest from Iran (4 May): Economy Watch

2010 GMT: Cabinet Watch. Back to today's confusing chapter in the crisis over the President and his attempted dismissal of the Minister of Intelligence....

The website 7 AM, close to Presidential aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, offers an explanation for why Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was reportedly at the Cabinet meeting (see 1225 GMT) but did not appear in the photograph issued by the President's office (see 1610 GMT).

7 AM says "an informed source in the President's office (Rahim-Mashai?) denied" that "the President ordered the Minister of Information out of the Cabinet meeting". The source adds that going in and out of the Cabinet meeting "is not unusual".

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Iran Analysis: Why Current US "Smart Sanctions" Aren't Very Smart (Kashani/Sadra)

The goal of sanctions was never, at least explicitly, to target the Iranian people, let alone the Iranian diaspora. The economic sanctions were set up with the understanding that there are approximately one million Iranian Americans residing in the United States, and that regardless of a long-running governmental spat and resultant commercial economic embargoes, the practicalities of life dictate that money will need to be transferred to settle estates or to provide assistance to family members.

Accordingly, our laws allow for remittances involving noncommercial transfers, among family members in the United States and Iran, and undertaken within the banking system. However, this obviously breaks down when there are no banks willing to receive wire transfers from even the nonsanctioned, private Iranian banks.

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