Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A New Opposition Leadership?

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See also EA Audio: James Miller on Opposition Leadership & Failure of Ceasefires
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime Steps Up Airstrikes

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1821 GMT: Syria. An emotional appeal from an online activist:

Video:When these rockets landed, many souls ascended to Heavens, God willing. A MiG throwing rockets onto Ghoutayoutube.com/watch?v=XLgs7i… #Syria

— ☪†Damascus Tribune†☪ (@DamascusTribune) November 1, 2012

Closer analysis offers an interesting detail among the tragedy. To be clear, a bomb does appear to fall, causing a massive explosion below. This appears to be East Ghouta, and those appear to be residences, so many may have died.

But those "rockets" are not rockets at all - they are flares, used to avoid surface-to-air missiles. Once again, we have evidence that the Syrian air force has permanently changed their behavior and is routinely guarding against these SAM missiles which have fallen into FSA hands in the capture of many area bases.

An analyst we spoke to over a month ago suggested that most pilots would never fire these countermeasures unless they had a radar alert that they had either been locked onto or fired at. Otherwise, the pilot may run out of flares before needing them. Is the FSA actively hunting regime jets east of Damascus?

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime Steps Up Airstrikes

See also Syria Feature: Obama Administration Seeks a New Opposition Council
Tuesday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "All Rallies and Gatherings Are Illegal"

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2252 GMT: Libya. A day after it was suspended because of protests (see 0500 GMT), the National Assembly approved a 30-member Cabinet presented by Prime Minister-designate Ali Zeidan.

A total of 105 members voted in favour, 18 abstainedm and nine voted against the Cabinet. Moments later, protests erupted, with security forces firing in the air.

More than a dozen security vehicles were stationed at the assembly building, as about 60 people gathered outside the tightly-shut main gate.

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Syria Feature: Obama Administration Seeks a New Opposition Council (Rogin)

Opposition figure Riad SeifSyrian opposition leaders of all stripes will convene in Qatar next week to form a new leadership body to subsume the opposition Syrian National Council, which is widely viewed as ineffective, consumed by infighting, and little respected on the ground.

The State Department has been heavily involved in crafting the new council as part of its effort oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and build a more viable and unified opposition. In September, for instance, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with a group of Syrian activists who were flown in to New York for a high-level meeting that has not been reported until now.

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Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "All Rallies and Gatherings Are Illegal"

See also Yemen Opinion: Questioning Washington's Model of Drones and Permanent War
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A "Ceasefire" Ends

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2121 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees claim that 134 people have been killed today, including 50 in Idlib Province --- most from shelling of insurgent-held Ma'aret Al-Numan and attacks on Saraqeb and Kafar Batekh --- and 43 in Damascus and its suburbs.

1929 GMT: Bahrain. Russia Today discusses the banning of all protests in Bahrain:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A "Ceasefire" Ends

Claimed footage of a regime airstrike on the Damascus suburb of Ghouta this morning

See also Syria Opinion: "Leadership is Nowhere to Be Found"
Turkey Special: A Tangled Situation --- Ankara, The Kurds, and US Messages
Sunday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Deadly Clash Between Insurgents in Aleppo

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2128 GMT: Syria. Protest in the Tareeq al-Bab area of Aleppo tonight:

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Syria Opinion: "Leadership is Nowhere to Be Found" (Hanano)

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Leadership on Syria is nowhere to be found, not in Syria nor in the rest of the world. Instead, the Syrian crisis has been reduced to these cliched statements, by politicians, journalists and pundits, that seem to create some kind of equality between the two sides.

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Turkey Special: A Tangled Situation --- Ankara, The Kurds, and US Messages

Recep Tayyip ErdoganAn intervention from the US Ambassador, a challenge from Washington's top military commander --- what is “Erdogan’s country” to do now? Facing the Americans, Iraq's Barzani, and the PKK --- all in the context of the evolving Syrian crisis --- will Ankara change its tough-on-Kurds inside Turkey? Will it make a move regarding Syria's Kurds? Or will it try to gain time until Ankara can see a clearer message from Washington following the US elections?

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Deadly Clash Between Insurgents in Aleppo

Claimed video of the Free Syrian Army firing on a Kurdish rally in the Ashrafieh section of Aleppo

See also Iraq Feature: How Kurdistan and Exxon Mobil Out-Manoeuvred Baghdad Over Oil
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A "Ceasefire" With Fighting, Car Bombs, and 103 Dead

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2116 GMT: Syria. Insurgents capture an armoured BMP vehicle and ---eventually --- drive it away:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A "Ceasefire" With Fighting, Car Bombs, and 103 Dead

Homs, Syria at daybreak this morning

See also Syria Audio Feature: Why Insurgent Advance Is More Important Than The Ceasefire --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Insurgent Advance in Aleppo Overtakes "Ceasefire"

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2253 GMT: Syria. Claimed footage of the Free Syrian Army firing on a Kurdish demonstration in Aleppo today:

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Syria Audio Feature: Why Insurgent Advance Is More Important Than The Ceasefire --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Insurgent Sniper in AleppoI spoke early this morning with Monocle 24's The Globalist about the four-day ceasefire for Eid al-Adha and the latest events on the ground in Syria.

My take-away is that the insurgent advances in Aleppo and elsewhere present the Assad regime with a dilemma: either concede the political and military ground and look towards a longer-term ceasefire and a settlement for a transitional government, or regroup and renew the assault in the hope of pushing the opposition back.

My prediction was that the latter will occur, and developments today reinforce that view.

To get to the discussion, open The Globalist's homepage, click on the programme for 26/10, and go to the 12:13 mark.