Syria Today: A Chemical Weapons Attack in Idlib Province?

1506 GMT: Death Toll Rising.

According to the Local Coordination Committees, 105 people have been killed so far today across the country:

34 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its suburbs, among them 13 martyrs in Marjeh explosion; 25 in Hama; 13 in Homs, among them 9 martyrs in Arbaeen neighborhood in Hama; 12 in Idlib; 8 in Daraa; 7 in Deir Ezzor; 5 in Aleppo; and 1 in Lattakia

The Local Coordination Committees (LCC) is an activist network operating both inside and outside of Syria. They claim to use stringent verification processes to ensure that a member of the LCC can vouch for any information posted either on their Facebook page or their website. The LCC also cooperates with an independent organization to populate database of those killed in the Syrian conflict, which can be seen at the website for the Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria.

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Syria Today: The Insurgent Attacks on Regime Airfields

1811 GMT: Russia Passenger Plane Attacked.

Interfax News reports that a Russia passenger plane on its way back from Egypt has been fired on while over Syria:

"The Syrian side informed us that on Monday morning unidentified people had fired two land-to-air missiles which exploded in the immediate proximity of a civilian plane belonging to a Russian airline," the source was quoted as saying.

"The crew has been able to move the aircraft to the side on time and save the lives of the passengers," the source said, adding that it was unclear whether the attackers knew that the plane was Russian.

The plane was returning from a resort in Egypt, a popular destination for Russian tourists.

There is debate, however, as to whether MANPADS, shoulder-fired missiles, could have the range to hit a target at this altitude. If MANPADS are ruled out, then it's extremely unlikely that rebels could have fired the weapons.

1804 GMT: Chemical Weapons Attack.

Some opposition activists are now saying that the victims of today's reported chemical attack have been stopped at the Turkish border:

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Syria Today: The Debate Over Chemical Weapons (Continued)

Dead animals in Khan Assal in Aleppo Province after an alleged chemical weapons attack last month (Photo: George Ourfalian/Reuters)

See also Syria Feature: The Lesson of the Destruction of the Ummayad Mosque
Middle East Today: Killing Off an "Independent" Egyptian News Site
Saturday's Syria Today: A Chemical Weapons "Game-Changer"?

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1515 GMT: Insurgent Leader on Chemical Weapons, Jabhat al-Nusra, and Prospect of Victory

In an interview, General Salem Idriss, the head of the insurgent Joiot Military Command, has claimed that regime forces used "the kind of chemical weapons" that are "not so very well known" in the cities of Aleppo, Raqqa, and Homs --- thus indicating that the insurgents have not been able to identify the nature of the chemicals allegedly used.

In the town of Khan al-Assal, allegedly attacked last month, Idriss said that the Syrian military had employed "some kinds of gases" and "phosphorus bombs" against civilians.

Idriss said the importance of the Islamist faction Jabhat al-Nusra --- which has been elevated by much of the media because of the exaggerated claim that it is linked to Al Qa'eada --- has been exaggerated: "The fighters in Jabhat al-Nusra are not more than 5,000 in all the country. Compare 5,000 to that, they [have] very few fighters in Syria."

The commander added, "We don't coordinate with them, we don't have any plans to work with them in the future. They are a special group, and this group is not working under our command."

Idriss claimed, "I]f we have enough weapons and ammunition we can put an end to the fight in Syria, we can fall the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In not more than two months. We can do that."

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Iran Today: Tehran Discusses Syria With Egyptian Delegation

See also Iran Claim of the Day: "Ahmadinejad to Release Tape on Rigging of 2009 Election" if His Successor is Rejected
Saturday's Iran Today: Tehran on Nuclear Talks "No Time-Wasting"

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Automobile Watch

The official website of Iran's automobile manufacturers that the production of the three largest companies --- Khodro, Saipa, and Pars Khodro --- fell by 47% in the year up to March 2013.

Political Prisoner Watch

Abdolhamid Moafian, who heads the Coordinating Council of Reformists in Fars Province, was arrested on Wednesday.

It is still not clear where Moafian, reportedly a supporter of former president Mohammad Khatami, is being held.

Jamileh Karimi, a former advisor to the governor of Fars Province during the Khatami Presidencyi, was also arrested recently.

Yaghoub Khezri --- Kurdish journalist, teacher, and blogger --- has been summoned to serve a one-year sentence stemming from his arrest in June 2012.

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Syria Feature: The Lesson of the Destruction of the Ummayad Mosque (Hanano)

Photo: Tauseef Mustafa/AFPThe lesson of the minaret: every tyrant will fall and the city remains. History has taught us that the people find a way to pick up the pieces of their city and rebuild. One thousand years from now, these years will be a chapter in history books. The future people of Aleppo will visit this sacred site and will feel the calm and peace once more. The stone will be old again. They will point to the square tower and whisper to their children the tale of this minaret that falls every few centuries when the lesson of tyranny must be taught to a people who had forgotten. Those people of the future are lucky. They will be unaware of the pain of living those years, unaware of the shame of writing this chapter. History is abstract and seamless to them, like it once was for us. It is merely a story they can recite while they trace their fingers over the stone and remember without consequence. I envy them.

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Syria Today: A Chemical Weapons "Game-Changer"?

Insurgents seize a regime tank near Homs

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1625 GMT: Limited Use of Chemical Weapons Part of Assad's Strategy? Pundits are arguing for or against foreign intervention in Syria, and much of their analysis of this week's chemical weapons claims are shaped by that goal. Chemical weapons analysts have focused on the available evidence, and have offered their criticism or support of the claims that Assad used of chemical weapons in that light. Today, however, two analysts focus on the wider strategic situation in Syria, and how chemical weapons claims fit into that picture.

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Syria Audio Feature: Is a Lasting Assad Regime Better than the Current Situation? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24's The Briefing yesterday about the political and military situation in Syria, framed by the question, "An end game seems as distant as ever --- should questions be asked in the West now about what seems to be a misguided confidence that Assad would eventually go? Will be continued instability be a lot worse than a continuation of the Assad regime?"

Listen from the 6:39 mark on The Briefing's homepage or in a separate pop-out window

My response begins with a reply to the challenge that a lasting Assad regime is the best option:

That would be just as mistaken as people who said he would fall within a few weeks.

To simply say that it would be better for the Assad regime to continue would be almost blind to the reasons why the protests started in March 2011. It would be blind to the fact that, for the largest part, it is the regime which is responsible for the tens of thousands of deaths since then.

Syria Today: The Debate Over Chemical Weapons

2210 GMT: Major Policy Shift Signaled By the US? Many analysts are writing about military intervention in Syria. Some are opposed, some are in favor, many are still on the fence. One article in particular was promoted heavily on Twitter: The Case for Intervening in Syria, published by The Atlantic. What caught our eye, however, is that one of the Twitter accounts pushing the report belongs to the US State Deptartment’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations:

A piece from @theatlantic on the case for intervening in #Syria. Please take a look through it here: ow.ly/kqGtR

— StateCSO (@StateCSO) April 26, 2013

2148 GMT: Rebels Redress Assad Advance in Damascus. At the start of my day, there was news that the Syrian regime was stacking tanks on the outskirts of Jobar, the east-central district of Damascus that is the front lines of the fight for the capital in the east. The area was being heavily shelled and bombed by artillery, rockets, and aircraft, softening up the area for the ground assault.

It's unclear whether the offensive was ultimately successful, but it does not appear that is was. Furthermore, the rebels appear to have inflicted heavy losses on the regime, particularly in the form of tanks.

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Syria Analysis: Could Hezbollah Involvement Spark Sectarian Violence?

http://goo.gl/NBJmh

Could increased involvement by Hezbollah transform the civil war between regime troops and the insurgency into a open Sunni-Shia/Alawite sectarian conflict, at least in the al-Qusair region?

Sectarianism has played a relatively small role in the Syrian civil war to date. Support for the insurgency, like support for Assad, is ethnically diverse. However, Hezbollah's incursions into the border region, and increasing lawlessness along the Lebanese border area, may be major catalysts for greater sectarian violence, at least between Al Qusayr and the border with Lebanon.

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Syria Live: The Fight Near the Lebanese Border

2007 GMT: Umayyad Mosque. It is hard to overstate the cultural, symbolic, historical and architectural importance of the Umayyad Mosque, the Great Mosque of Aleppo. Months ago, it was occupied by Assad fighters and used to attack nearby rebel positions. The mosque then fell to Syrian rebels. Today, it has been attacked by Assad forces and the minaret has been destroyed. The Local Coordination Committees have posted this statement:

The Umayyad Mosque in Aleppo is considered to be one of the most famous and important mosques in the Islamic world and is one of the most important world heritage sites. The mosque witnessed almost all eras of history. Regime forces have committed today a new crime against human and cultural heritage by targeting the minaret of the mosque and completely destroying it. This act comes in the context of a systematic policy of the authoritarian regime to destroy all Syrian cultural landmarks.

We, in the Local Coordination Committees condemn this criminal act that shook the conscience of all Syrians and underline the continuing struggle to achieve the goals of our glorious revolution, no matter how far this criminal regime goes in targeting humans and stone.

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