Saturday
Jan242009
Coming Next in Iran: Sanctions, Military Action, and the Yellowcake Story
Saturday, January 24, 2009 at 11:48
A very clever story in The Times: "Iran in Scramble for Fresh Uranium Products". Whether the article is great investigative reporting uncovering the truth, a well-developed "information" campaign by US and British officials, or a bit of both, it may point the way towards the US-UK towards Tehran before and after this spring's Iranian elections.
The line of the story is that "diplomatic sources believe that Iran’s stockpile of yellow cake uranium, produced from uranium ore, is close to running out and could be exhausted within months". Therefore, "countries including Britain, the US, France and Germany have started intensive diplomatic efforts to dissuade major uranium producers from selling to Iran". The Foreign Office leaked cables to The Times reporters of British efforts to "urge Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest producers, to ignore any possible approaches to obtain imports" and confirmed a similar campaign in Uzbekistan.
The two-fold strategy behind the story? The Times writes, "[This is a move that, while unlikely to cripple any effort to develop a bomb, would blunt [Iran's] ambitions and help to contain the threat." That means:
1. Britain and the US, supported by France, Canada, Australia, and Germany, maintain diplomatic pressure for continued, and possibly enhanced, sanctions against Iran. This will probably come through bilateral and multilateral arrangements rather than UN Security Council action.
2. Britain and the US damp down any calls for direct action against Iran such as military strikes. If Tehran can't get yellowcake, then it can't pose an "imminent threat", can it?
The line of the story is that "diplomatic sources believe that Iran’s stockpile of yellow cake uranium, produced from uranium ore, is close to running out and could be exhausted within months". Therefore, "countries including Britain, the US, France and Germany have started intensive diplomatic efforts to dissuade major uranium producers from selling to Iran". The Foreign Office leaked cables to The Times reporters of British efforts to "urge Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest producers, to ignore any possible approaches to obtain imports" and confirmed a similar campaign in Uzbekistan.
The two-fold strategy behind the story? The Times writes, "[This is a move that, while unlikely to cripple any effort to develop a bomb, would blunt [Iran's] ambitions and help to contain the threat." That means:
1. Britain and the US, supported by France, Canada, Australia, and Germany, maintain diplomatic pressure for continued, and possibly enhanced, sanctions against Iran. This will probably come through bilateral and multilateral arrangements rather than UN Security Council action.
2. Britain and the US damp down any calls for direct action against Iran such as military strikes. If Tehran can't get yellowcake, then it can't pose an "imminent threat", can it?
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