Coming Next in Iran: Sanctions, Military Action, and the Yellowcake Story

A very clever story in The Times: "Iran in Scramble for Fresh Uranium Products". Whether the article is great investigative reporting uncovering the truth, a well-developed "information" campaign by US and British officials, or a bit of both, it may point the way towards the US-UK towards Tehran before and after this spring's Iranian elections.



The line of the story is that "diplomatic sources believe that Iran’s stockpile of yellow cake uranium, produced from uranium ore, is close to running out and could be exhausted within months". Therefore, "countries including Britain, the US, France and Germany have started intensive diplomatic efforts to dissuade major uranium producers from selling to Iran". The Foreign Office leaked cables to The Times reporters of British efforts to "urge Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest producers, to ignore any possible approaches to obtain imports" and confirmed a similar campaign in Uzbekistan.

The two-fold strategy behind the story? The Times writes, "[This is a move that, while unlikely to cripple any effort to develop a bomb, would blunt [Iran's] ambitions and help to contain the threat." That means:

1. Britain and the US, supported by France, Canada, Australia, and Germany, maintain diplomatic pressure for continued, and possibly enhanced, sanctions against Iran. This will probably come through bilateral and multilateral arrangements rather than UN Security Council action.

2. Britain and the US damp down any calls for direct action against Iran such as military strikes. If Tehran can't get yellowcake, then it can't pose an "imminent threat", can it?

Gaza: Demonstrations in Jerusalem, West Bank, and the Islamic World

Trying to limit demonstrations over the attacks in Gaza, the Israeli Government has barred men under 50 from entering mosques in Jerusalem for Friday prayers. All entry points from the West Bank have been closed until Saturday night.

Al Jazeera's Twitter channel is reporting more than 10,000 demonstrators in Indonesia. Hundreds have protested in Egypt despite a ban on prayers in certain mosques. Police in Amman, Jordan, have fired tear gas on marchers moving towards the Israeli Embassy.

There has been some attention in British media to the Iranian demonstrations at the British Embassy, but the reaction to Gaza is much wider amongst the population. A reader from Tehran has commented on another thread:

It’s a somewhat chaotic situation. Student protests are taking place all over Tehran including at the airport where there is a 24 hours a day vigil. Some have taken place in front of the Egyptian government’s Interest Section because of the Egyptian Government's support for the slaughter in Gaza. Other protests have been held in front of the Saudi and Jordanian embassies. Every day there have been massive rallies held in Palestine Square (today’s had many non-students as well as it is a public holiday). The Saudi Airlines office was attacked, and the building belonging to the British embassy was briefly taken. The police have trouble keeping up.