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Entries in Ehud Barak (18)

Sunday
Jan042009

Gaza: Was the Israeli Attack Planned in June?

Months ago, as Israel prepared to unleash its latest wave of desolation against Gaza, it recognised that blasting Hamas and "the infrastructure of terror", which includes police stations, homes and mosques, was a straightforward task.

A reader from Turkey asks, "What is the main argument behind your view that the Israeli operations were already planned in June? Do you specifically mean the visit of Olmert to US on 2nd of June?"

I'm not sure if Olmert and the Bush Administration would have discussed the Israeli planning, but the following from Chris McGreal in The Observer of London is an excellent account both of the preparations for military operations and the information campaign to accompany them.



Why Israel went to war in Gaza

It is a war on two fronts. Months ago, as Israel prepared to unleash its latest wave of desolation against Gaza, it recognised that blasting Hamas and "the infrastructure of terror", which includes police stations, homes and mosques, was a straightforward task.

Israel also understood that a parallel operation would be required to persuade the rest of the world of the justice of its cause, even as the bodies of Palestinian women and children filled the mortuaries, and to ensure that its war was seen not in terms of occupation but of the west's struggle against terror and confrontation with Iran.

After the debacle of its 2006 invasion of Lebanon - not only a military disaster for Israel, but also a political and diplomatic one - the government in Tel Aviv spent months laying the groundwork at home and abroad for the assault on Gaza with quiet but energetic lobbying of foreign administrations and diplomats, particularly in Europe and parts of the Arab world.

A new information directorate was established to influence the media, with some success. And when the attack began just over a week ago, a tide of diplomats, lobby groups, bloggers and other supporters of Israel were unleashed to hammer home a handful of carefully crafted core messages intended to ensure that Israel was seen as the victim, even as its bombardment killed more than 430 Palestinians over the past week, at least a third of them civilians or policemen.

The unrelenting attack on Gaza, with an air strike every 20 minutes on average, has not stopped Hamas firing rockets that have killed four Israelis since the assault began, reaching deeper into the Jewish state than ever before and sending tens of thousands of people fleeing. Last night Israel escalated its action further, as its troops poured across Gaza's border, part of what appeared to be a significant ground invasion. And a diplomatic operation is already in full swing to justify the further cost in innocent lives that would almost certainly result.

Dan Gillerman, Israel's ambassador to the UN until a few months ago, was brought in by the Foreign Ministry to help lead the diplomatic and PR campaign. He said that the diplomatic and political groundwork has been under way for months.

"This was something that was planned long ahead," he said. "I was recruited by the foreign minister to coordinate Israel's efforts and I have never seen all parts of a very complex machinery - whether it is the Foreign Ministry, the Defence Ministry, the prime minister's office, the police or the army - work in such co-ordination, being effective in sending out the message."

In briefings in Jerusalem and London, Brussels and New York, the same core messages were repeated: that Israel had no choice but to attack in response to the barrage of Hamas rockets; that the coming attack would be on "the infrastructure of terror" in Gaza and the targets principally Hamas fighters; that civilians would die, but it was because Hamas hides its fighters and weapons factories among ordinary people.
Hand in hand went a strategy to remove the issue of occupation from discussion. Gaza was freed in 2005 when the Jewish settlers and army were pulled out, the Israelis said. It could have flourished as the basis of a Palestinian state, but its inhabitants chose conflict.

Israel portrayed Hamas as part of an axis of Islamist fundamentalist evil with Iran and Hezbollah. Its actions, the Israelis said, are nothing to do with continued occupation of the West Bank, the blockade of Gaza or the Israeli military's continued killing of large numbers of Palestinians since the pullout. "Israel is part of the free world and fights extremism and terrorism. Hamas is not," the foreign minister and Kadima party leader, Tzipi Livni, said on arriving in France as part of the diplomatic offensive last week.

Earlier in the week Livni deployed the "with us or against us" rhetoric of George W Bush's war on terror. "These are the days when every individual in the region and in the world has to choose a side. And the sides have changed. No longer is it Israel on one side and the Arab world on the other," she said. "Israel chose its side the day it was established; the Jewish people chose its side during its thousands of years of existence; and the prayer for peace is the voice sounded in the synagogues."

It was a message pumped home with receptive Arab governments, such as Egypt and Jordan, which view Hamas with hostility. "Large parts of the Muslim and Arab world realise that Hamas represents a greater danger to them even than it does to Israel. Its extremism, its fundamentalism, is a great danger to them as well," said Gillerman. "We've seen the effect of that in numerous responses, in the public statements made by [Egypt's] President Mubarak and even by [Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas and other Arabs. This is totally unprecedented."

Indeed, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, said his government knew exactly what was coming: "The signs that Israel was determined to strike Hamas in Gaza for the past three months were clear. They practically wrote it in the sky. Unfortunately they [Hamas] served Israel the opportunity on a golden platter."

Also crucial was what was not said. Just a few months ago Livni was talking of wiping out Hamas, but that would be unpalatable to much of the outside world as a justification for the assault. So now the talk is of pressing Gaza's government to agree to a new ceasefire. Occasionally someone has got off-message. A couple of days into the assault on Gaza, Israel's ambassador to the UN, Gabriela Shalev, said it would continue for "as long as it takes to dismantle Hamas completely". Infuriated Israeli officials in Jerusalem warned her that such statements could set back the diplomatic offensive.

In the first hours of the attack, Israel repeated the same messages to the wider world. Livni and the Labour defence minister, Ehud Barak, were widely quoted on international TV. The government's national information directorate sought to focus foreign media attention on the 8,500 rockets fired from Gaza into Israel over the past eight years and the 20 civilians they have killed, rather than the punishing blockade of Gaza and the 1,700 Palestinians killed in Israeli military attacks since Jewish settlers were pulled out of Gaza three years ago.

Lobby groups, such as the British Israel Communications and Research Centre (Bicom) in London and the Israel Project in America, were mobilised. They arranged briefings, conference calls and interviews. The Israeli military posted video footage on YouTube. Israeli diplomats in New York arranged a two-hour "citizens' press conference" on Twitter for thousands of people. At the same time, Israel in effect barred foreign journalists from witnessing the results of its strategy.

Livni has suggested that Israel's assault is good for the Palestinians by helping to free them from the grip of Hamas. "She's basically trying to convince me that they're doing this for my own good," said Diana Buttu, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation's legal counsel and negotiator with the Israelis over the 2005 pullout from Gaza. "I've had some Israeli friends reiterate the same thing: 'You should be happy that we're rooting out Hamas. They're a problem for you, too.' I don't need her to tell me what's good for me and what's bad for me, and I don't think carrying out a massacre is good for anybody."

And when the killing started, Israel claimed that the overwhelming majority of the 400-plus killed were Hamas fighters and the buildings destroyed part of the infrastructure of terror. But about a third of the dead were policemen. Although the police force in Gaza is run by Hamas, Buttu said Israel is misrepresenting it as a terrorist organisation.

"The police force is largely used for internal law and order, traffic, the drug trade. They weren't fighters. They hit them at a graduation ceremony. Israel wants to kill anyone associated with Hamas, but where does it stop? Are you a legitimate target if you work in the civil service? Are you a legitimate target if you voted for Hamas?" she said.

Similarly, while Israel accuses Hamas of risking civilian lives by hiding the infrastructure of terror in ordinary neighbourhoods, many of the Israeli missile targets are police stations and other public buildings that are unlikely to be built anywhere else.

Israel argues that Hamas abandoned the June ceasefire that Tel Aviv was prepared to continue. "Israel is the first one who wants the violence to end. We were not looking for this. There was no other option. The truce was violated by Hamas," said Livni.

However, others say that the truce was thrown into jeopardy in November when the Israeli military killed six Hamas gunmen in a raid on Gaza. The Palestinians noted that it was election day in the US, so most of the rest of the world did not notice what happened. Hamas responded by firing a wave of rockets into Israel. Six more Palestinians died in two other Israeli attacks in the following week.

"They were assaulting Gaza militarily, by sea and by air, all through the ceasefire," said Buttu. Neither did the killing of Palestinians stop. In the nearly three years since Hamas came to power, and before the latest assault on Gaza, Israel forces had killed about 1,300 people in Gaza and the West Bank. While a significant number of them were Hamas activists - and while hundreds of Palestinians have been killed by other Palestinians in fighting between Hamas and Fatah - there has been a disturbing number of civilian deaths.
The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights says that one in four of the victims is aged under 18. Between June 2007 and June 2008, Israeli attacks killed 68 Palestinian children and young people in Gaza. Another dozen were killed in the West Bank.

In February, an Israeli missile killed four boys, aged eight to 14, playing football in the street in Jabalia. In April, Meyasar Abu-Me'tiq and her four children, aged one to five years old, were killed when an Israeli missile hit their house as they were having breakfast. Even during the ceasefire, Israel killed 22 people in Gaza, including two children and a woman.

Perhaps crucial to the ceasefire's collapse were the differing views of what it was supposed to achieve. Israel regarded the truce as calm in return for calm. Hamas expected Israel to lift the blockade of Gaza that the latter said was a security response to the firing of Qassam rockets.

But Israel did not end the siege that was wrecking the economy and causing desperate shortages of food, fuel and medicine. Gazans concluded that the blockade was not so much about rocket attacks as punishment for voting for Hamas.

Central to the Israeli message has been that, when it pulled out its military and Jewish settlers three years ago, Gaza was offered the opportunity to prosper. "In order to create a vision of hope, we took out our forces and settlements, but instead of Gaza being the beginning of a Palestinian state, Hamas established an extreme Islamic rule," said Livni. Israeli officials argue that Hamas, and by extension the people who elected it, was more interested in hating and killing Jews than building a country.

Palestinians see it differently. Buttu says that from the day the Israelis withdrew from Gaza, they set about ensuring that it would fail economically. "When the Israelis pulled out, we expected that the Palestinians in Gaza would at least be able to lead some sort of free life. We expected that the crossing points would be open. We didn't expect that we would have to beg to allow food in," she said.

Buttu notes that even before Hamas was elected three years ago, the Israelis were already blockading Gaza. The Palestinians had to appeal to US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice and James Wolfensohn, the president of the World Bank, to pressure Israel to allow even a few score of trucks into Gaza each day. Israel agreed, then reneged. "This was before Hamas won the election. The whole Israeli claim is one big myth. If there wasn't already a closure policy, why did we need Rice and Wolfensohn to try to broker an agreement?" asked Buttu.

Yossi Alpher, a former official in the Mossad intelligence service and an ex-adviser on peace negotiations to the then prime minister, Ehud Barak, said the blockade of Gaza is a failed strategy that might have strengthened Hamas. "I don't think anyone can produce clear evidence that the blockade has been counterproductive, but it certainly hasn't been productive. It's very possible it's been counterproductive. It's collective punishment, humanitarian suffering. It has not caused Palestinians in Gaza to behave the way we want them to, so why do it?" he said. "I think people really believed that, if you starved Gazans, they will get Hamas to stop the attacks. It's repeating a failed policy, mindlessly."
Saturday
Jan032009

Urgent (Rolling) Update: Israeli Ground Forces Reportedly Entering Gaza

Latest update: Gaza: The Israeli Invasion


1:10 a.m. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon calls for immediate cease-fire. CNN prefers to repeat, without analysis, the statement of Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak.

1 a.m. Watching Fox News to find out their angle --- They go to their man on the Israel-Gaza border, Mike Tobin, who quite clearly has no decent sources of information and is just making up "news", such as possibility that Hamas set fires to the gas tanks in Gaza --- The media-literate might find a Tobin/Fox News look-a-like in The Day Today's Peter O'Hanra-hanrahan

12:55 p.m. Al Jazeera: US State Department says cease-fire is needed as soon as possible and is concerned about humanitarian situation but says "Hamas is holding Gaza's people hostage"

12:42 p.m. CNN gives 10 minutes to military analyst Retired General David Grange, who says despite "extraordinary precautions" by Israel, Number One risk is civilian casualties --- He says Hamas wants to "induce casualties among its own people" as well as Israeli forces

Why not just identify Grange as "spokesperson for Israeli Defense Forces"?

12:25 a.m. Hamas spokesman says battalion of Israeli commandos surrounded ---5 soldiers killed, 29 injured

12:10 a.m. Israel TV says Gaza gas terminal hit.

12 midnight. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband calls for immediate cease-fire. UN Security Council to meet at 7 p.m. New York time (2 hours from now).

Massive explosion in Rafah.



11:33 p.m. As Israeli troops invaded, Israel jammed Al-Aqsa, Hamas' television station, and posted message, "Hamas --- Your Time is Over".

11:30 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that France has condemned the Israeli invasion. Israeli military says dozens of Gazans killed.

11:15 p.m. West Bank Palestinians on streets of Ramallah condemning invasion and calling on Arab states to respond.

11:10 p.m. UN has now set up shelters for refugees from Gaza fighting.

10:57 p.m. Al Jazeera correspondent Ayman Mohyeldin in Gaza City is very good, making excellent point that Israeli operation may have to attempt reoccupation of all Gaza. Rationale? Because Hamas has better rockets than in recent years, it can put them deeper in the territory. So if Israel wants to remove all the sites, they cannot go for a "limited" operation.

10:39 p.m. Israeli spokesman Mark Regev now talking to Al Jazeera. In response to Mahmoud Abbas's warning of "grave consequences" of Israeli invasion, he holds to the line of an operation responding to Hamas' "terrorism" of rockets. He does not rise to Al Jazeera's bait that Israel "wants to overthrow Hamas", arguing that this is "up to the Palestinian people themselves".

Regev is good: he gets in all the political hyperbole with Hamas as "a totalitarian, Taliban-type regime".

10:37 p.m. CNN's Ben Wedeman is officially hopeless. He passes on Tel Aviv's spin, "Our understanding from Israeli officials is that it's going to be, at least initially, the first stage, is going to be limited in scope," even as Al Jazeera correspondent in Gaza City reports a two-pronged Israeli attack, one from east and one into Gaza towns (Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun) in northeast.

10:28 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that airport, in southern Gaza, "destroyed" by Israeli artillery.

10:24 p.m. Israeli state TV says number of Hamas fighters killed.

10:20 p.m. Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman tells Al Jazeera that military operation is not "reoccupation" of Gaza, as it is only to destroy "Hamas infrastructure of terror". He then gives away the political aim, however, referring to a "legitimate Palestinian leadership" (Palestinian Authority) that could lead Gaza.

10:10 p.m. Palestinian Authority takes public position of criticising Israel: chief negotiator Saeb Erakat says, "What this will do is undermine the peace process."

10:00 p.m. Brigadier Avi Benayahu on Israeli television: "This won't be a school outing. We are talking about many long days."

9:50 p.m. Israel/Gaza: Ehud Barak, Israeli Defense Minister, is giving a press conference. The aim of the operation is "to force Hamas attacks and to stop its hostile activities....We are not war hungry but we should not allow a situation where our towns ... are constantly targeted by Hamas....It will not be easy or short, but we are determined."

The invading force is "columns" rather than a "column", coming in from four directions into northeastern Gaza.

9:45 p.m. Israel/Gaza: There has been contact between the invading Israeli column and Hamas fighters, according to a witness. Hamas is claiming on Al-Arabiya television that there have been Israeli casualties.

9:15 p.m. Israel/Gaza: Reuters, citing Palestinian witnesses, and Press TV are headlining that a "small Israeli ground force" has entered Gaza. (CNN is headlining but has yet to post story.)

Al Jazeera is reporting that the force is an Israeli armoured column supported by attack helicopters. Apparent objective is to seize sites from where rockets have been fired. Point of entry is in northeastern Gaza, on open land (and site of former Israeli settlements) near Beit Hanoun.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman has told Al Jazeera that ground operation is to continue until "situation on the ground...transformed".
Friday
Jan022009

Gaza Update (10 a.m. Israel/Palestine; 8 a.m. Britain): Israeli Manoeuvres in Paris?

Update to the Update: "Israel is discussing with Washington the possibility of establishing an international monitoring system that would keep Hamas from rearming during a cease-fire, and ensure an end to rocket attacks on Israel, said diplomats familiar with the discussions."

It seems almost callous to speak of a "routine" of Israeli airstrikes against Gaza, as more than 50 attacks were carried out on Thursday. In addition to the killing of Hamas leader Nizar Rayyan, Israeli raids hit the home of "senior Hamas military operative" Nabil Amrin, the Parliament building, the Ministries of Justice, Education, and Civil Defense, and a mosque in Jabaliya. The Israeli Defense Forces said more than 40 rockets were fired into Israel.

There may be a twist in the diplomatic tale, however. Israeli Tzipi Livni traveled to Paris to meet Prime Minister  Nicolas Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, only 24 hours after a French proposal for a humanitarian truce was rejected by the Israeli Cabinet. Livni said that the Israeli attacks had "achieved changes" and said the aim was to "weaken Gaza".



One possibility is that the Israeli Government, which has just permitted the departure of foreigners from the Gaza Strip, could be preparing for a ground assault. The Foreign Minister's words, however, point to another possibility: could Livni be backing away from the objective, declared on the eve of the Israeli assault, of overthrowing Hamas? And does her statement of "achieved changes" indicate that Israel may be ready to pause?

Perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not, I noted this yesterday from Donald Macintyre in The Independent:

There was a moment, back at the end of July 2006, when the second Lebanon war might just have ended five or six days after it began. We now know that Tzipi Livni, Israel's Foreign Minister, expressed serious concern that Israel might be missing a chance to reach a peace agreement at least as good as the one which would come a full four weeks and many hundreds of casualties – on both sides – later.



Reportedly, it was Minister of Defense Ehud Barak rather than Livni who supported the 48-hour truce in Israeli Cabinet discussions. Yet, with Sarkozy pressing his own role as an international statesman and travelling to Israel on Monday, it appears negotiations are ongoing for some manoeuvre which will permit an easing of Israeli operations while allowing Tel Aviv to claim victory in its immediate aim of facing down Hamas.

As Livni said, somewhat cryptically, after Thursday's talks, "The question of whether it's enough or not [for a truce] will be the result of our assessment on a daily basis," she said.
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