Update: Obama's Challenge? Curbing the Pentagon

A hat tip to our colleague Giles Scott-Smith, who wrote for us on 29 November: "The possibilities for improving the US standing in the world are equally great.. ..To make the changes required, however, Obama faces his challenge: curbing the Pentagon."

Scott-Smith's prediction was already being fulfilled this week in tussles from Afghanistan to Guantanamo Bay. However, his wider point --- that the Department of Defense is trying to seize some control of "information", US economic assistance, and even diplomacy --- is backed up in a New York Times editorial by Gary Schaub, an assistant professor at the Air War College. This is Schaub's opening declaration:

GEN. DAVID PETRAEUS, not Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will shape American engagement with the Middle East for years to come. While Mrs. Clinton prepares to put together the State Department, the military is already reconsidering American policy in critical regions. The politically savvy General Petraeus has both a plan and the resources to see it through.

Schaub identifies the mission of Petraeus' Central Command not only "to provide security" but to "help nations in the region govern effectively [and] build their economies" and "to communicate America’s foreign policy intentions clearly". Rather than support the lead of other agencies who normally carry out these duties, military commands should co-opt civilian employees to implement their plans.

Of course, one could suggest this is Schaub's personal wild ride in How to Make US Foreign Policy, rather than the intentions of Petraeus or Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. It is a bit discomforting, however, especially as the nightmare of Pentagon-State Department battles in the Dubya years and amidst some evidence of the military's unease with Obama, to see this splashed across The New York Times.

Send the Envoy: Obama, Iran, and Diplomatic Symbolism

As we have noted all week, including yesterday, we have major concerns --- if Barack Obama is seeking to engage Iran, as he stated in his Al Arabiya interview interview --- about the naming of Dennis Ross as an envoy.

Ross still hasn't been confirmed, but John Tirman of the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has an excellent, well-sourced article on AlterNet which reflects our worries. Like us, he is wary Ross's close association with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which advocates a hard line with Tehran. Tirman also notes that Richard Holbrooke, named as Obama's envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, headed an ad hoc group called United Against a Nuclear Iran.



Will Obama Stack His Middle East Team with Neoconservative Ideologues?
JOHN TIRMAN

None of President Obama's foreign policy actions will matter more than how he approaches Iran. Most other big challenges -- Russia, China, trade policy, development, human rights -- will continue the trajectory of previous American policies, with some variations.

But Iran poses a set of dynamic challenges. In one way or another, it touches upon all the turmoil of the region, it is at the center of oil and gas production and pricing, its leadership connects with political Islam the world over, and it has strengthening ties to Russia, India, China and Japan.

Obama has pledged, as recently as last Jan. 11, to "engage" with Iran in a respectful way, which is certainly a change, at least in tone. But "engagement" is a malleable concept.  At this early stage of the Obama era, it's important to understand who might shape that engagement, who has responsibility for Iran in the State Department and how those people perceive the future contours of the U.S.-Iran relationship.

And on that score, if the Washington rumor mill is correct, we are in for another dose of "get tough" diplomacy.  As Hillary Rodham Clinton said in her confirmation hearings to be Secretary of State, they intend to approach Iran's nuclear-development program "through diplomacy, through the use of sanctions, through creating better coalitions with countries that we believe also have a big stake in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weapon power, to try to prevent this from occurring."

The core of that list and her statement that "all options are on the table" -- code for a military attack on Iran -- is coercion. It won't work, if by "work" we mean to make Iran bend to our will. It hasn't worked for three decades. And such a continuation of coercive policies could create even more dissonance in the relationship than at any time in the 30 years since the Islamic revolution.

The gloom that is descending over many critics of Bush's catastrophic foreign policy stems from Obama's appointments and the indiscernible "change" agenda that such choices convey. Foreign policy has always been a tightly held portfolio, with few outside the small club of specialists chosen for major posts. But even within this small demographic, there are very sharp differences of skill, temperament and ideology. Once Clinton was named as secretary of state, it was certain that many of those who served in her husband's administration would be returning to government. But even that cohort, which was not particularly successful, had a wide range of temperaments and inclinations, from highly professional diplomats to craven political hacks and neoconservative ideologues.

Particularly upsetting to growing numbers of policy analysts, former diplomats and liberal activists are the widespread rumors of who would take on the ultrasensitive posts managing affairs in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf and South Asia.

According to these reports, Dennis Ross would become a special envoy whose portfolio includes Iran, and possibly the entire region; Richard Holbrooke would take the special envoy slot for Afghanistan, Pakistan and India; and Richard Haass would take on the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

Just after the inauguration, Holbrooke was announced for his rumored slot, and former Sen. George Mitchell, D-Maine, was given the job of addressing the Israeli-Palestinian imbroglio. By the end of the inauguration week, there was no official word on Ross. Holbrooke, Ross and Mitchell have been affiliated with groups that are overtly hostile to Iran, and it is that record of belligerence that has many who hope for a change of course wary.

Since 2001, Ross, the tirelessly unsuccessful Mideast negotiator under George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, has been employed by the Israeli-backed Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the policy arm of American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a key component of the Israel lobby in the United States.  (WINEP was founded by Martin Indyk, another Clinton-era diplomat who may play a role in the Obama government.)  Holbrooke, former U.N. envoy under Clinton, headed an ad hoc group called United Against a Nuclear Iran, which advocates military action against Iran if U.S.-defined terms are not met; Ross belongs to that group, and to a so-called Bipartisan Policy Center, which similarly advocates an extremely militant stance toward Iran.  (Mitchell is one of four co-chairs of the latter group.) All of these organizations are populated by neocons and reflect what could charitably be called a "Cheney-plus" strategic vision.

(Now, as it happens, the rumors about Ross in particular may not come to pass. It seems that the main source of this rumor was WINEP itself, publicizing a "memo" to its board extolling Ross' pending appointment as an über envoy. This, picked up by uncritical bloggers and repeated in the mainstream press, has now become the conventional wisdom. But reliable sources high in the transition apparatus insisted just before the inauguration that Ross had not been chosen as a special envoy. The ploy, if that's what it is, recalls the "we make the reality" bravura of Bush/Cheney operatives.)

The revelation in the New York Times on Jan. 11 that Israel sought U.S. permission last year to use Iraqi airspace to attack Iran's nuclear facilities certainly underscores the significance of these appointments, should they come to pass. Israel is again pursuing an unacceptably aggressive policy toward Palestinians, and the fact that they are ready and willing to go to war with Iran renders the U.S. alliance with Israel all the more problematic. (WINEP and like-minded polemicists are attempting to link Hamas to Iran far more closely than is warranted.)

What better time to bring on a team of Iran bashers to represent the new American president? As Roger Cohen, the New York Times columnist, put it so directly just prior to the inauguration, noting the return of the old guard and the lack of ethnic diversity: "Enlightenment will require a fresher, broader Mideast team than Obama is contemplating."

The problem is not Ross or Holbrooke per se, but the general attitude of punitive action that they and their associates favor when it comes to Iran, the Palestinians and others who are thought to be adversaries of U.S. or Israeli interests. Consider, for example, a task force Ross co-convened a year ago at WINEP on the "future of U.S.-Israel relations." Its report was mainly about Iran and how Israel and the U.S. have nearly identical interests and should act in concert.

It recommended bringing Israel in as a full partner in "initiatives involving the U.N. Security Council and U.S.-E.U., U.S.-Arab," and other forums; an agreed approach to Hamas; a common effort to "confront Iran" and to emphasize new sanctions against Iran, other coercive options, preventive military action and coordinated U.S.-Israeli diplomatic engagement. The task force was meeting with Israelis over a period of time that encompassed Israel's request for permission from Bush to bomb Iran and has been accompanied by other WINEP analyses recommending the same militant actions.

These recommendations, which would in effect cede U.S. policy in the region to an Israeli veto, were signed by Susan Rice, Obama's U.N. envoy; Anthony Lake, his leading foreign policy adviser during the campaign; and Tom Donilon, the new deputy national security adviser. Holbrooke's ad hoc group includes Gary Samore, reported to be heading for a top post on the White House national security staff.

Obama has said that he provides the vision and his minions carry out his policies. That's a naïve view of the policy process. The president -- any president -- is dependent on information from his advisers, and policy options are almost always developed outside the Oval Office. Particularly with the focus this president must bring to economic issues, foreign policy will be shaped in these crucial early stages by others. Obama, with good instincts but little actual experience with foreign policy, will be at a troubling disadvantage -- particularly with hardened policy mavens of like mind, supported by Congress and the mainstream news media, telling him that the change we need in U.S. policy toward Iran should be toward more sanctions, more covert ops, more military intimidation and possibly even "preventive military action."  It is notable, too, that in 30 years since the Islamic revolution in Iran, coercion has been the core of U.S. policy, with exceptionally poor results by any measure.

As one would expect, Tehran is already taking note and circling the wagons. Obama's "carrots and sticks" statement just after the election, and his refusal to respond to an open letter from his counterpart in Tehran, were unnecessary slights. On the other hand, Iran's restraint with respect to the Gaza crisis may be a welcoming signal. But by deputizing people who have stated repeatedly that Iran must be handled roughly and who advocate for a pre-eminent role for Israel in the making of American policy, Obama is running a huge risk -- strengthening precisely those elements in Iran who are least amenable to a better relationship.  Crucially, it could even affect the outcome of Iran's presidential election in June.

The most puzzling aspect of all this -- apart from the nearly total lack of attention in the news media -- is that there are so many talented scholars, diplomats and policy wonks to choose from, and as Cohen noted in his column, some are of Arab or Iranian descent.

The U.S.-Iran relationship has been fraught with missed opportunities, intentional slights and outright aggression, and its complexity is legion. Success demands a manager at the State Department who is capable of great care, experience, independence and equanimity, with equally skilled diplomats at other relevant posts. Such fresh appointments might send just the right signal of change that Obama promised, to the region and to the rest of the world.

Obama on Top of the World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (26 January)

Earlier Updates and Links to Posts: Obama on Top of the World (25 January)

5 p.m. We're off for some downtime. Back in the morning with overnight updates, including the latest of Obama envoy George Mitchell's first trip to the Middle East.

3:30 p.m. Barack, We Have a Problem. Our news this morning (2:45 a.m. and 6 a.m.) was on the emerging "third country" solution for Guantanamo ex-detainees. The meeting of the 27 European Union foreign ministers, however, has failed to agree a unified approach. The French-led proposal to take up to 60 detainees has been blocked or undermined by Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands.

The cheekiest excuse of all came from British Foreign Minister David Miliban who said that, as Britain had taken back nine of its citizens and three of its permanent residents, it had already made its "significant contribution".



3:15 p.m. Here's a New Crisis for You. Well, not that new, for anyone paying attention, but one that the Obama Administration can't welcome. Islamic insurgents in Somalia have raided the Parliament building in Baidoa and paraded five lawmakers through the streets. The remainder of the Parliamentarians, meeting in the neighbouring country of Djibouti, are effectively stranded. As one said, "We have nowhere to return to."

The insurgents' takeover in Baidoa occurred only hours after Ethiopian troops completed their withdrawal from the country.

2:55 p.m. Sticking to the Script. The US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, said today that she looked forward to "vigorous diplomacy that includes direct diplomacy with Iran". This follows the line put out on the Obama White House website --- what we're awaiting is a sign of how the Administration will approach Tehran.

1:45 p.m. Further to our report (5:05 a.m.) of the removal of the People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran (Mujahedin-e-Khalq) off the European Union's list of terrorist organisations:

Iran has criticised the decision as an "irresponsible move". The European response, anticipated by our readers in the Comments section on this thread, is that European courts left no alternative. The EU's head of foreign policy, Javier Solana, said, "What we are doing today is abiding by the decision of the court. There is nothing we can do about the decision."

The PMOI/MKO's political branch, however, is treating the decision as legal and political vindication and is planning its next activities. Marjam Rajavi, leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, called the removal from the terrorist list "a crushing defeat to Europe's policy of appeasement". A spokesman said the group would now seek to have its funds unfrozen, claiming the NCRI had $9 million in France and tens of millions in other European states.

11:30 a.m. The State Department Twitterers are offering updates from the Department press briefing. Good News: unlike the Bushmen, who saw any expression of local independence as a threat to Washington's control, Department spokesman has welcomed the outcome of Bolivia's constitutional referendum.

The Not-so-Good (Technical) News: We excitedly clinked on the link, expecting Wood's briefing or a detailed statement of the new Latin American policy and got...a map of Bolivia.

Bless.

10:30 a.m. Oh, No. Last week we reported, when George Mitchell and Richard Holbrooke were named as Obama envoys, that US foreign policy and the world had dodged a bullet because Dennis Ross had unexpectedly not been unveiled as envoy on Iranian matters.

We celebrated too soon. According to the Foreign Policy blog "The Cable", "State Department sources...[say] that former Middle East peace negotiator Dennis Ross has indeed been tapped as the U.S. envoy to Iran, with the possible title 'ambassador at large'."

If Ross is indeed named, we'll roll out the reasons why this could lead to a disastrous US approach towards Tehran. For now, have a look at Ross' November 2008 opinion piece that insists, despite US intelligence estimates that say otherwise, "Iran has continued to pursue nuclear weapons", and suggests tougher sanctions, "Hitting the [Iranian] economy more directly would force the mullahs to make a choice."

10 a.m. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to name Todd Stern as "climate change envoy" today.

Stern was a staff member in the Bill Clinton White House, coordinating the Initiative on Global Climate Change from 1997 to 1999 before becoming an advisor to the US Treasury. He is now senior partner in a law firm and a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, focusing on climate change and environmental issues.

6:45 a.m. Pressure to the Left of Me, Pressure to the Right. Last week it became clear that some in the US military, as well as the US ambassador in Iraq, are digging in their heels on the Obama plan to withdraw combat troops from Iraq within 16 months.

Today Obama is getting a nudge from the other side. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, facing provincial elections, is declaring that that the withdrawal "will be accelerated and occur before the date set in the [Status of Forces] agreement" between the US and Iraq. That agreement, passed in December, promises the withdrawal of US troops by the end of 2011.

6 a.m. Following up our early update (2:45 a.m.) on the "third country" solution for Guantanamo Bay detainees, there is a potentially major meeting in Brussels today. European Union foreign ministers are discussing the proposal to take in the released prisoners. Javier Solana, the EU Secretary-General, suggested, "This is an American problem and they have to solve it but we'll be ready to help if necessary... I think the answer of the EU will be yes."

The number of up to 60 detainees to be accepted by Europe, floated by the French this weekend, may match up to the 50 to 60 "hard cases" identified by the US. These are detainees who face possible human rights abuses if they are returned to home countries.

5:05 a.m. One Man's Terrorist is Another's.....The European Union has taken the People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran, also known as the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO), off a list of banned terrorist groups.

MKO was formed in the 1960s as a "leftist" opposition group against the rule of the Shah of Iran but, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, it broke with the new Government. MKO, from bases in France and then Iraq, began a sustained campaign of bombings, sabotage, and assassinations against Iranian targets during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, and operations have continued since then.

In 2003, there was a split in the US Government between those who wanted to use the group against Iran and those who wanted to curb its activities. MKO remained in Iraq, although its members were disarmed and guards were posted on its bases. Last week, the Iraqi Government asked MKO members to leave the country "voluntarily".

5 a.m. Two US military aircraft have crashed in northern Iraq, killing four soldiers.

3:45 a.m. In a major victory for President Evo Morales, Bolivia's new constitution has been approved in a referendum with a "Yes" vote of more than 60 percent.

3:30 a.m. Pakistani insurgents blew up a school this morning in the Swat Valley in the northwest of the country, the 183rd destroyed in six months. Cleric Maulana Fazlullah has presented a list, published in local newspapers, of 50 Government officials ordered to appear before him or face death. A bicycle bomb planted near a women's hostel killed five people.

2:45 a.m. It's becoming clear that the Obama strategy for closing Guantanamo Bay rests upon getting third countries to take detainees. Vice President Joe Biden, in the headline interview on the Sunday talk shows, said, "We won't release people inside the United States. They're either going to be tried in courts, in military courts, or sent back to their own country."

There are major legal difficulties with the courts option, since the Bush Administration's chaotic and tortuous handling of detainees means that evidence may have been perverted beyond repair. So it's over to Europe: Portugal last month said it would consider taking some ex-detainees, and Switzerland followed last week. Ireland has said that it would accept some released prisoners, if it was part of a "European" solution. And that in turn points to reports that France is preparing such an initiative for the European Union.

1:45 a.m. Juan Cole, despite an over-sensational headline ("Obama's Vitenam?"), has an excellent overview of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the likely Obama strategy in Salon.

Overnight Update (1 a.m. Washington time): Two days after US missile strikes in Afghanistan killed 22 "militants" and/or civilians, The New York Times highlights an earlier attack that killed between 22 and 32 people, quoting from survivors:

The American military declared the nighttime raid this month a success, saying it killed 32 people, all Taliban insurgents — the fruit of an emphasis on intelligence-driven use of Special Operations forces.

But the two young men who lay wincing in a hospital ward here told a different story a few days later, one backed up by the pro-American provincial governor and a central government delegation. They agreed that 13 civilians had been killed and 9 wounded when American commandos broke down doors and unleashed dogs without warning on Jan. 7 in the hunt for a known insurgent.

It appears that today's headline Obama orders will take on former President George W. Bush and climate change. White House officials indicate that the moves will be domestic, including steps "to raise fuel efficiency standards and grant states authority to limit greenhouse gas emissions from cars".

There is no indication yet that President Obama will launch a post-Kyoto process on climate change, nor of how he will reverse the Bush Administration's isolation from international discussions.

Obama on Top of the World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (24 January)

Earlier Updates and Links to Stories: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (23 January)
Latest Post: Coming Next in Iran
Latest Post: Track Barack with the Obamameter

1:35 p.m. After a long and busy week, we're taking the night off. We'll be back in the morning with all the overnight developments fit to notice.

12:50 p.m. According to the German magazine Der Spiegel, France has drafted a plan for European countries to take 60 detainees from the Guantanamo Bay facility. The French Government has refused to comment on the report.

12:40 p.m. In Independent but Not-Quite-Independent Iraq, US troops have killed a couple and wounded their daughter in a raid on  the house of a former Iraqi Army officer in Kirkuk.

A US military spokesman claimed the incident occurred in a joint operation with Iraqi forces, but an Iraqi police general said no Iraqi troops were present.

11:15 a.m. India Snubs Barack and Hillary. Here's one we missed. All week we were identifying Richard Holbrooke as President Obama's special envoy for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. In fact, when the appointment was announced on Thursday, India had fallen off the title.

It wasn't an omission. According to a US official, "When the Indian government learned Holbrooke was going to do [Pakistan]-India, they swung into action and lobbied to have India excluded from his purview. And they succeeded. Holbrooke's account officially does not include India."

Daniel Markey of the Council on Foreign Relations offers an explanation for Delhi's resistance: "They [India] are the big fish [in the region]. They don't want to be grouped with the 'problem children' in the region, on Kashmir, on nuclear issues." Moreover, another US official added, "The Indians do not like Holbrooke because he has been very good on Pakistan... and has a very good feel for the place."



11 a.m. Hey, Barack, Look Over Here! United Press International reports:

North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency said that a special U.S. Department of Defense investigations committee "recently made public a report designating (North Korea) as a nuclear weapons state."

The news service said the Defense Department report said that North Korea not only has "several nuclear weapons but a missile system capable of delivering them."

At the same time, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is reportedly telling Chinese hosts, "The North Korean side will commit itself to the denuclearization of the North Korean peninsula, and hopes to co-exist peacefully with other involved parties."

9:45 a.m. Best Friends Forever Alert. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev made a big show on Friday of co-operation with the new Obama Administration, pointing to his country's permission for US transit of supplies to Afghanistan and offering to work with international efforts against drug-trafficking and terrorism in that country.

It's a low-cost, low-risk strategy for Moscow. There is no great inconvenience giving Washington an alternative to its now-closed Khyber Pass route, and reduced drug production in Afghanistan could ease the flow of illegal narcotics into Russia. And Medvedev can even chide the now-departed Bush Administration, ""Let's hope the new U.S. administration will be more successful than the previous one in dealing with the Afghan settlement."

Russia can do so because it knows full well that, if Obama's military-first approach in Afghanistan fails, it won't be the Soviet Union of the 1980s but the US of the 21st century that takes the fall.

8:30 a.m. A quick tip of the hat to our little-brother site, The State of the United States, which continues to offer some of the most provocative and incisive analysis of US politics: "I'm sure all of us will see Obama's promises carried out soon; people are going to have to be patient. I ask, what is Obama going to promise next? An end to the death penalty?"

6:20 a.m. A suicide car bomb aimed at African Union peacekeepers in Mogadishu, Somalia, has killed 15.

6:05 a.m. More (conflicting) details on the US attack in eastern Afghanistan overnight. The American military is still claiming that 15 militants, including a woman, were killed. Afghan official and a village elder say 21 or 22 civilians died. The elder added, "Their bodies are on the ground. If you (Afghan government) do not believe us, you have helicopters and you should come to the area and see that these are civilians."

5:20 a.m. A revealing pair of sentences in a New York Times summary of yesterday's US missile strikes on Pakistan, which killed at least 20 people:

The downside: "American officials in Washington said there were no immediate signs that the strikes on Friday had killed any senior Qaeda leaders."

The upside: "They said the attacks had dispelled for the moment any notion that Mr. Obama would rein in the Predator attacks."

Soon after the attacks, Obama convened his first National Security Council meeting devoted specifically to Pakistan and Afghanistan. We're searching for details of the discussions.

5:10 a.m. Completely helpful, non-sensational lead sentence in New York Times story on releasing detainees from Guantanamo Bay:

Is Khalid Sheikh Muhammed coming to a prison near you?

5 a.m. Five policeman have been killed and 13 people wounded in a suicide bomb attack northwest of Baghdad.

4:10 a.m. Interesting revelations in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz. Obama envoy George Mitchell will arrive in the Middle East before 10 February. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has gone on the offensive and set out Israel's preconditions in any negotiations, telling US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Israel will "not open the Gaza crossings without progress toward the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit". (cross-posted from Israel-Palestine-Gaza Updates)

3:40 a.m. US officials claim 15 "militants" killed in American raid; villagers report civilians among dead.

Morning update (3 a.m. Washington time): CNN reports that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has reached out to allies by phoning "a slew of leaders since taking office on Thursday". OK, that's great. One question....

What's a slew?

Within 15 minutes, a reader responds by noting that "slew" is the past tense of "slay" and worries that the alliance may have something to do with killing.

For the record, the foreign leaders mentioned by the State Department were "Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Jordan's King Abdullah and the foreign ministers of Egypt and Saudi Arabia".

The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Gaza (24 January)

Latest Post: How Israel Spawned Hamas
Earlier Updates and Links to Stories: The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Gaza (23 January)

8:35 p.m. After a long and busy week, we're taking the night off. We'll be back in the morning with all the overnight developments fit to notice.

8:30 p.m. Just to make sure that no one forgets his country's emerging position amidst the Gaza conflict, Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has congratulated Hamas leader Khalid Meshaal on the "victory" over Israeli forces.

7:23 p.m. Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal has followed up his criticism of US policy on Israel and Palestine, and an Obama phone call to Saudi King Abdullah, with a more muted warning in an interview with CNN. While welcoming Obama's Friday statement and the appointment of envoy George Mitchell, Turki said: "We've heard this before. We need to see implementation. We need to see facts on the ground change. We need to see rhetoric change. We need to see presence on the ground."

7:15 p.m. Hamas is not backing down in the face of Israel's attempts to cut off aid unless it is distributed by other organisations. The Gazan leadership has announced the formation of a committee of senior officials as "the only body to oversee and supervise the rescue. We will be in contact with all other bodies, whether local, national or international, to organise the relief."

7:10 p.m. While Lebanon has not been in the front line of Arab debate over Gaza, it is still worthwhile to note the statement of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on Saturday. Speaking of a Day of Solidarity with Gaza, Siniora called on all Lebanese "to support the Palestinian brethren in Gaza in any way possible and according to the individual's capability".

5:50 p.m. Word is being leaked that President Obama's envoy George Mitchell will visit Israel and the West Bank next week. The sharp-eyed amongst you will already note that he is not going to Gaza.

5:35 p.m. ITV and Channel 4 have broken with the BBC and will now air a Disaster Emergency Committee appeal for Gaza. The same article also carries Tony Benn's prediction that the BBC will back down and agree to air the appeal, "Before the sun sets in London tonight."



5:05 p.m. A must-see article in The Wall Street Journal: "How Israel Helped Spawn Hamas". We've reprinted and analysed it in a separate post.

2:55 p.m. Interesting counter-move in Cairo: Hamas is meeting with Egyptian officials to discuss a possible swap of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, held by Hamas since 2006, for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

Equally, Hamas is suggesting that members of the Palestinian Authority can assist in the monitoring of the Rafah crossing, as long as they are residents of Gaza and not the West Bank. Hamas is also proposing that European Union and Turkish peacekeepers supervise the border.

These are quite clever proposals.  Hamas is trying to separate the Shalit issue from the question of reopening the crossings, and their proposals for the border are very close to the Mubarak-Sarkozy plan pressed by Cairo soon after the initial Israeli attacks. If Cairo agrees, Egypt has effectively dismissed its earlier hopes of removing Hamas from power, and the diplomatic ball will be in  Tel Aviv's court.

2:50 p.m. Schools have reopened in Gaza, but teachers are having to deal with the "psychological trauma" suffered by children in recent weeks.

12:50 p.m. In Case You're Still Thinking About That Regime Change Idea. Washington Post reporters finally get into Gaza and report:

In dozens of interviews across Gaza on Friday, ...Palestinians generally expressed either unbridled support for Hamas or resignation to the idea that the group's reign in Gaza will continue for the foreseeable future. No one suggested that the group is vulnerable.

12:30 p.m. The New York Times has a long profile on the quick rebuilding of Gazan tunnels, damaged by Israeli airstrikes: "The tunnels are the principal livelihood for many people here, and as soon as the bombing stopped, they were right back in them with their shovels."

The best quote? “This will give us greater skills,” said one digger. “We’ll become artists.”

11 a.m. Interesting revelations in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz: Obama envoy George Mitchell will arrive in the Middle East before 10 February. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has gone on the offensive and set out Israel's preconditions in any negotiations, telling US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Israel will "not open the Gaza crossings without progress toward the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit".

10 a.m. Israel/Gaza time: The Israeli Government has appointed an inter-ministerial legal defense team to defend officials and soldiers against any war crimes charges.