The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (13 Jan - Evening)

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Earlier updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (13 January)

10:50 a.m. I am afraid that this conflict has settled into a deadly pattern. Israeli forces move forward overnight, trying to take out Hamas positions by air, sea, and land bombardment and then settle in position --- as the bombardment continues --- during the day. Because there are few broadcast correspondents in Gaza, there is not-so-dramatic footage (at least from the standard narrative of war) while the best stations try to cover the humanitarian story.

Meanwhile, the diplomatic dance is a very slow waltz. Israel is clearly in a stationary position, awaiting any Egyptian pressure on Hamas to work. But Hamas, as far as I can tell, isn't ready to make concessions.

As Kurt Vonnegut would say, so it goes.... Goodnight, thank you, and peace to all.



12:20 a.m. The Ramattan live feed from Gaza City is still running via CNN.

11:20 p.m. Alive in Gaza has posted another despatch, from Muhammad al Ja'bawi: "I cannot find the words to describe what is going on now in Gaza." We've reprinted in full as a separate blog.

9:25 p.m. A pleasure to see Professor Avi Shlaim, one of the best historians on the Middle Eastern conflict, on Britain's Channel 4 this evening. His thoughts, on Gaza and the Israel-Palestine issue, were perceptive if provocative. Hopefully the clip will be available later. In the meantime, his article in last Wednesday's Guardian of London, "How Israel Brought Gaza to the Brink of Humanitarian Crisis", is well worth a read.

8:20 p.m. Al Jazeera has just posted an article on the testimony of Secretary of State-elect Hillary Clinton at her confirmation hearings today. Clinton vowed "every effort" to advance a peace settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, but she ruled out any negotiations with Hamas unless it recognised Israel and renounced violence.

Consider that carefully. What Clinton has just said is that, before there can be any talks on a cease-fire in the current conflict, Hamas must unilaterally recognise Tel Aviv and declare an end to rocket attacks. Israel, on the other hand, has to make no such concessions regarding its recognition of Hamas or its use of military force.

7:40 p.m. Israel/Gaza time: CNN and Al Jazeera still focusing on Israeli tanks around Gaza City.

But what is the news out of the talks in Cairo? No smoke signals from the discussions between Egypt and Hamas. Instead, Egyptian officials moved quickly on Tuesday to block a Qatari request for an emergency summit of Arab nations on Gaza.

6:08 p.m. Far from Gaza: at her confirmation hearings in Washington, Secretary of State-elect Hillary Clinton looks totally bored, thinks, "Why, oh why am I not President?"

6:02 p.m. Gazans fleeing Israeli bombardment around Rafah unable to find room in shelters. Gazan death toll now 971.

6 p.m. This clue, both to the qualified optimism of the Israeli leadership and to its indecision whether to press the fight into the cities, from the Los Angeles Times:

The military power of Hamas has been weakened and its political leadership is divided over plans for a possible ceasefire, but an Israeli intelligence official said today that the radical group remains formidable, with 15,000 fighters and a sophisticated arsenal of rockets and anti-tank weapons and tunnels.

Reading the News from Iran to Gaza

A reader from Birmingham offers this excellent analysis of developments in Iran and in the Israel-Gaza conflict:

In Tehran, there is the usual mix of stories of protest, support for Hamas and Obama's Iranian 'dilemma'- but the strangest story is this from the Los Angeles Times:

In Tehran, Iran, a senior Iranian official and ranking cleric told worshippers that Hamas possesses a “new weapon” to use if Israel decides upon a ground invasion. The advanced weapon would allow the militant group to target Israeli tanks “from a long distance,” said former Iranian president Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of Iran’s powerful Expediency Council.

Is Rafsanjani's sabre rattling related to this from couple of days ago? Radio Free Europe/Farda has a story that an Iranian newspaper has been closed for criticising the Iranian Government's support of Hamas. US public diplomacy has subsequently stirred the pot by claiming the reform paper was close to Rafsanjani.

Perhaps the most significant and under-reported story is that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki today started a visit to Iran, telling Iranian state television that his government would not allow Iraq to be used as a base to threaten its neighbours. The question of the Iraqi-based Iranian exile organisation MKO, whom Iraq wants to expel and Iran wants to extradite, will doubtless also come up. He will talk with Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini.

Anne Penketh of the Independent also balances a non-story that the war in Gaza will harden Israeli support for strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, with a few home truths about the reality of Iran's nuclear threat to Israel. There was also the story a few days ago that Iranian groups have been recruiting suicide bombers to travel to Israel and have been lobbying the government for assistance (which was not forthcoming)

Meanwhile, what has been lacking in news coverage is any real contemplation of the nature of an Israeli ground offensive. Only the Los Angeles Times has this quote from an Israeli military analyst:

Israeli analysts and experts have said that any ground operation should be brief but powerful. Alex Fishman, the military analyst of the daily Yediot Aharonot, wrote Friday, “Since the name of the game is killing and destruction, the ground operation has to be quick, with a lot of firepower at friction points with Hamas.” He added, “The goal is to exact a high price in the early stages of the ground operation and to end it quickly.”