Follow-Up: The Plan to Bring Fatah into Gaza --- Livni Speaks

For those still sceptical of our notion of the "grand design" to topple Hamas and replace it with Fatah....

I just read carefully Israeli Foreign Tzipi Livni's interview in today's Washington Post. Most reports have focused on the headline, "Israel is Not Going to Show Restraint", but the political significance is hidden away in the second half of the interview:

POST: People in Washington are interested in how long the operation will last and what Israel's aim is.

LIVNI: The Annapolis[peace] process is based on the understanding that we are working with a pragmatic leadership in the Palestinian Authority while fighting terror. It is a zero-sum game when Hamas is getting stronger while Abu Mazen is getting weaker. The Palestinians need to understand that Israel can share and implement and translate the vision of two states for two peoples with those that accept this vision, who accept Israel's existence and renounce violence and terrorism. Hamas does not. Hamas does not represent the national aspirations of the Palestinians. It represents extreme Islamic ideas, which they share with Iran, Hezbollah and Syria.



POST: Your goal is to continue the dialogue with the Palestinian Authority but also weaken the extremists?

LIVNI: Yes. . . . We are willing to . . . try and find a peace treaty with the moderates as long [as] at the end of the day, we don't fight a terror state on the other side of the border.

POST: Would you say [Hamas] needs to be removed?

LIVNI: I would say that the Gaza Strip controlled by Hamas is a burden not only to Israel but to the Palestinians themselves.

The Final Bush Legacy: Why the US Abstained on the Gaza Resolution

We were quite surprised when the US, represented by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, abstained in the UN Security Council vote on the Gaza cease-fire resolution late Thursday night. After all, as we noted yesterday, Rice had joined British Foreign Minister David Miliband and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in the development of the resolution, in part to block the Libyan-drafted alternative.

Now we have a partial answer to the mystery:

The call that changed everything apparently came just as ministers and ambassadors were taking their seats in the council chamber. It was President George Bush for Ms Rice. Don't veto the resolution, he said, but don't vote for it either.

Apparently, Bush had just gotten off the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who appealed to the White House to override the State Department and ensure that the US did not support the cease-fire call.

Since it was the British who drafted the resolution and did a lot of the heavy lifting to line up support, especially from Arab delegates --- "it was hairy there for the moment", said one British official --- the Foreign Office is none too impressed with Washington. (Which is why some of their staff gave this story to The Independent and to the Guardian)

So it's a final legacy for President Bush, refusing to back a cease-fire and effectively green-lighting Israel to carry on with the killing (of both Hamas fighters and civilians) in Gaza. But that leaves a further mystery: who really made the decision to pull away from the resolution?

In the history of this Administration, as detailed by writers like Barton Gellman, Thomas Ricks, and James Risen, the Vice President's office and the Pentagon have often bypassed and even trampled upon the State Department to push through their own strategic ideas. Well, Donald Rumsfeld and his deputies may be long gone, but Dick Cheney remains, at least for another 10 days.

So did the Vice President step in again or was it really "The Decider", as Bush likes to style himself, who did make a fateful decision?

Really Live Coverage of the Gaza Conflict

A feed streaming live video from Gaza City has been set up. Already today you could have followed the journalists' demonstration and seen Israeli jets dropping leaflets. (Thanks to UJ for the tip.)

Gaza: Ummmm...."Israel Rejected Hamas Ceasefire Offer In December"

This story, provided it made it beyond the admirable Inter Press Service, might just upset the established one-way narrative of Hamas walking away from peace with Israel. Gareth Porter writes:

Contrary to Israel's argument that it was forced to launch its air and ground offensive against Gaza in order to stop the firing of rockets into its territory, Hamas proposed in mid-December to return to the original Hamas-Israel ceasefire arrangement, according to a U.S.-based source who has been briefed on the proposal.

The proposal to renew the ceasefire was presented by a high-level Hamas delegation to Egyptian Minister of Intelligence Omar Suleiman at a meeting in Cairo Dec. 14. The delegation, said to have included Moussa Abu Marzouk, the second-ranking official in the Hamas political bureau in Damascus, told Suleiman that Hamas was prepared to stop all rocket attacks against Israel if the Israelis would open up the Gaza border crossings and pledge not to launch attacks in Gaza.

The Hamas officials insisted that Israel not be allowed to close or reduce commercial traffic through border crossings for political purposes, as it had done during the six-month lull, according to the source. They asked Suleiman, who had served as mediator between Israel and Hamas in negotiating the original six-month Gaza ceasefire last spring, to "put pressure" on Israel to take that the ceasefire proposal seriously.

Suleiman said he could not pressure Israel but could only make the suggestion to Israeli officials. It could not be learned, however, whether Israel explicitly rejected the Hamas proposal or simply refused to respond to Egypt.

The readiness of Hamas to return to the ceasefire conditionally in mid-December was confirmed by Dr. Robert Pastor, a professor at American University and senior adviser to the Carter Centre, who met with Khaled Meshal, chairman of the Hamas political bureau in Damascus on Dec. 14, along with former President Jimmy Carter. Pastor told IPS that Meshal indicated Hamas was willing to go back to the ceasefire that had been in effect up to early November "if there was a sign that Israel would lift the siege on Gaza".

Pastor said he passed Meshal's statement on to a "senior official" in the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) the day after the meeting with Meshal. According to Pastor, the Israeli official said he would get back to him, but did not....

The interest of Hamas in a ceasefire agreement that would actually open the border crossings was acknowledged at a Dec. 21 Israeli cabinet meeting -- five days before the beginning of the Israeli military offensive -- by Yuval Diskin, the head of Israel's internal security agency, Shin Bet. "Make no mistake, Hamas is interested in maintaining the truce," Diskin was quoted by Y-net News agency as saying

Condi Rice's Cheer-Up Message for Gazans

Anyone who is under the happy illusion that the US Secretary of State might do something of consequence to try and limit the civilian deaths in Gaza might want to turn away now:

"It is very difficult in circumstances like Gaza, which is a very densely populated area," Rice told reporters when asked if Israel is living up to its humanitarian obligations in the offensive which has left more than 780 Palestinians dead.

"I might note it's also an area in which Hamas participates in activities like human shields, using buildings that are not designated as military buildings to hide their fighters. So it's hard."

You know, we could inform Ms Rice --- perhaps via State's Twitter-diplomats --- of the Zeitoun massacre, the Jabaliya school/shelter shelling, and the firing on UN convoys and Red Cross/Red Crescent ambulances. We could drop her a note that the latest evidence is that "human shields" are a specialism of the Israeli military.

But somethow I don't think it's going to make a difference.