Thursday
Jan012009
Gaza: Hamas Strikes Back (Against the Palestinian Authority)
Thursday, January 1, 2009 at 18:06
Latest Update: Israeli Manoeuvres in Paris
Looks like we were on to something yesterday as we suggested that Mahmoud Abbas, the President of Palestine (West Bank Branch) was walking a political tightrope when, 48 hours after he blamed Hamas for the bloodshed in Gaza, he turned around condemned the Israeli attacks as "barbaric".
Despite six days of bombing, despite targeted assassinations, Hamas has not been politically decimated. Indeed, it is feeling strong enough to fight back against Abbas' Palestinian Authority.
Hours after one of our readers noted, "Some in Hamas are saying that Fatah reaching out is a possible plot to reveal Hamas commanders’ locations," Griff Witte of The Washington Post wrote:
That, however, is only the tip of the political iceberg. Consider Witte's observation that "sympathy for Hamas appears to be rising" in the West Bank. Note his reference (which he doesn't fully appreciate when he says, "public reaction...to the Gaza strikes has been milder than many analysts predicted") to the following incident:
Hundreds of people rallied in Ramallah's central square, denouncing Israel and chanting slogans calling for Palestinian unity. But when a group of young Hamas supporters attempted to unfurl the movement's green-and-white banners, security forces loyal to Abbas quickly seized the men and hustled them away.
We may be witnessing political jujitsu here. One of the scenarios for those supporting the Israeli attack is that "moderate" Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Egypt) would back a bolstered Palestinian Authority, which has been propped up by millions in US security aid in recent months, as it reclaimed leadership in Gaza. If that didn't work, in the words of Palestinian analyst Khalil Shikaki, "Ultimately, Gaza would become Egypt's problem, not Israel's.The goal of a single Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank would be fully undermined."
(Ironically The Washington Post, even as it runs Witte's report, has become the pulpit for this political strategy, with former Israeli deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh calling on Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and even Syria to back an Israeli-imposed solution and political scientist/Bush loyalist Robert Lieber envisaging "a seriously weakened and politically damaged Hamas".)
All this becomes wishful thinking, however, if Hamas builds its domestic support not only in Gaza but in the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority, to protect its own position, will have to pull back from its attempt to isolate its political rival, and Arab countries will be hesitant to press ahead in the face of local opposition (and, far from incidentally, demonstrations on their own streets). Indeed, there may already be signs that Islamic and Arab leaders are re-aligning their positions:
Looks like we were on to something yesterday as we suggested that Mahmoud Abbas, the President of Palestine (West Bank Branch) was walking a political tightrope when, 48 hours after he blamed Hamas for the bloodshed in Gaza, he turned around condemned the Israeli attacks as "barbaric".
Despite six days of bombing, despite targeted assassinations, Hamas has not been politically decimated. Indeed, it is feeling strong enough to fight back against Abbas' Palestinian Authority.
Hours after one of our readers noted, "Some in Hamas are saying that Fatah reaching out is a possible plot to reveal Hamas commanders’ locations," Griff Witte of The Washington Post wrote:
Hamas shot back Wednesday, accusing Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, from the rival Fatah party, of being an Israeli collaborator.
That, however, is only the tip of the political iceberg. Consider Witte's observation that "sympathy for Hamas appears to be rising" in the West Bank. Note his reference (which he doesn't fully appreciate when he says, "public reaction...to the Gaza strikes has been milder than many analysts predicted") to the following incident:
Hundreds of people rallied in Ramallah's central square, denouncing Israel and chanting slogans calling for Palestinian unity. But when a group of young Hamas supporters attempted to unfurl the movement's green-and-white banners, security forces loyal to Abbas quickly seized the men and hustled them away.
We may be witnessing political jujitsu here. One of the scenarios for those supporting the Israeli attack is that "moderate" Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Egypt) would back a bolstered Palestinian Authority, which has been propped up by millions in US security aid in recent months, as it reclaimed leadership in Gaza. If that didn't work, in the words of Palestinian analyst Khalil Shikaki, "Ultimately, Gaza would become Egypt's problem, not Israel's.The goal of a single Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank would be fully undermined."
(Ironically The Washington Post, even as it runs Witte's report, has become the pulpit for this political strategy, with former Israeli deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh calling on Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and even Syria to back an Israeli-imposed solution and political scientist/Bush loyalist Robert Lieber envisaging "a seriously weakened and politically damaged Hamas".)
All this becomes wishful thinking, however, if Hamas builds its domestic support not only in Gaza but in the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority, to protect its own position, will have to pull back from its attempt to isolate its political rival, and Arab countries will be hesitant to press ahead in the face of local opposition (and, far from incidentally, demonstrations on their own streets). Indeed, there may already be signs that Islamic and Arab leaders are re-aligning their positions:
As diplomats struggled to keep up with events on the ground, the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, flew to Syria for talks with President Bashar al-Assad.
Erdogan denied planning to meet Khaled Mashal, the exiled Hamas leader, before flying to Jordan and Saudi Arabia.