Iran: Letter from Tehran "The Regime is Over"

An EA reader has passed us this letter from a friend in Tehran, received yesterday. We post it as it is written, with no editing:

Sorry for taking so long to write to you, I’ve been lying low - I wasn’t really sure whether it was safe for me to write or not, and I just wanted to be careful.

Do you remember Khatami being attacked during Moharram [the assault in Jamaran on Tasua, 26 December --- see video]? We happened to be visiting some friends who live near there and you’ll never believe it but we virtually had a ringside view!

Things are definitely changing here, remember I told you about the last demonstration I had seen in October, and the brutality of the basij etc. Well this time it almost seemed as if some of the attackers really didn’t want to be there! It seems that some of them are getting disillusioned with it all.

The regime is over - it’s just a matter of time! They really can’t last much longer.

Even in the time since I moved back here last year I can sense the change. The hardliners are getting quieter by the day --- indeed I am increasingly hearing them not just criticizing the regime, but actually sympathizing with the movement. They’ve gone from supporting the regime, to silence, to criticism, to support for the opposition in a few short months. Amazingly we are now seeing some of the very religious people beginning to turn away from the Supreme Leader, and even blame him for the younger generation turning away from Islam.

As I told you before families are divided, and on occasion I see people who would have traditionally been much more conservative and even pro-regime, now criticizing the regime and as I say even the SL! This was unheard of even a few months ago.

I get the sense that even among the conservatives they are fighting among themselves! The feeling is that once the economy collapses it will definitely be the end of the regime, and the word on the street is that that is not far away. Every other factor for regime change is in place, and it seems that the opposition’s support grows every day.

Comments

[apk]

Correction-

I take no issue with Kevin Aghner, just don't want anyone/group derailing US leaders.

Pic- great idea to discuss sanctions.

Apk

[Barry]

Talking about strikes

http://precycleonline.com/forum/posts/id_3181/

Barry

[Bijan]

APK - having many friends involved in NIAC who all have Iran deep in their hearts I do believe the organization is doing what it feels is in the best interest of Iranians.

To Pic's request I will say no more to that point and appreciate the comment to avoid gettin caught in that discussion and to focus on the main issue of this thread.

I believe history shows us major events are the culmination of many mvi g pieces with a trigger event finally releasing all the energy into action. So I am waiting for the perfect storm scenario where several significant events occur within close proximity to each other. What these events are would just be a guess but recent new points at a few possibilities.

To answer a question raised by Pic earlier regarding a potential split in the opposition movement and a potential "acceptance" by some such as Mousavi is a possibility. To me the immediate follow up question is if the green "leaders" accept any concession by the regime ,such as the dismisal of AN, would the other leaders (students,etc) also accept this as meeting their demands and effectively end their movement. My initial thought is no. I am still of the belief that while changing the key roles ofthe regime will satisfy a portion of the population, there will still be a large portion who would not be satisfied and protests would continue.

[Anthony]

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Megan, I'm sorry but you are deluding yourself. If the regime is over then why arent we seeing strikes through out Iran? Why isnt the so called green movement not getting any help from the ethnic minorities? I'll answer, because the regime is not over and they see it as suicide to even attempt to try and help out.

[Megan]

Anthony,

It may not be over now but it will be over and regime knows that too.

This does not have to follow the 1979 blueprint. 70% of population was not under the age of 30 in 1979. There was no Internet in 1979. The entire 1978 -79 government infrastructure was not run by criminals and Apes. This is a different century; different people different stroke.

Please pay attention to what people (those who are protesting not the so-called leaders) say in streets of Iran, listen to their chants and listen to their voices.

We shall see who is delusional and who is not.

You called my “Expat” (in another thread) knowing diddly about me. I replied. I guess you just like hit and run.

signed: Mohareb

[Bosco]

I don't know why some people are riding Trita Parsi and the NIAC. Go look at their statement releases and blog since the election. They clearly have the best interests of the Iranian people in mind, not the IRI. However, they also want a good relationship between the US and the IRI. It's a difficult balancing act, which Obama appears to be replicating pretty well.

Now compare that to Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett. Go to http://www.raceforiran.com/ and you'll see some useful idiots of the IRI.

[apk]

Megan-

Totally agree with you. Dynamics are always different- law of nature. We need to learn from history, however current dynamics should guide us.

Apranik

[Kamran]

And who is going to replace this regime if it were to fall?

The former regime insiders and hitmen-turned opposition like Mousavi, and Rafsanjani ?

Or how about the US-backed MKO terrorists, or god forbid, the shah's son?

As much as one sympathizes with the protesters, they are being led by charlaitans.

None of the alternatives are any better than the current regime.

[apk]

I proposed that exact question to an Iranian American friend of mine who wants a secular Iran. Those with his philosophy do not want old hitmen like Mousavi, they want a secular Iran, and know that Mousavi is not much different from AN (as Obama indicated last June.) And at this point the secular greens view Mousavi as a prop to help their cause, not a future leader. They want nothing to do with any who holds MKO allegiances. FYI- the shah's son has no interest in leading. He loves his life and has no interest in changing it. There are many Iranians in Europe who are being considered for stepping in, however, Iranians will know who is best for them when a true
democracy enables the process.

Apk

[Kamran]

"And at this point the secular greens view Mousavi as a prop to help their cause, not a future leader."

In 1979 I remember when the secular opposition to the Shah said they were just using Ayatollah Khomeini as a prop, too.

But it was Khomeini that was using them!

And today the naive secular opposition are being used once again by the likes of Moussavi and Rafsanjani !

[sasan]

well I am from tehran and via the antifilter program which I have got from VOA I am using this and send a message to democrates. Iranian people are shouting and screaming in street That::: OBAMA WAKE UP /// GAME IS OVER ..BUT WE GUESS U DONT WANT TO BELIEVE THAT THIS REGIM IN GONEEEEEEEEEEE !!! I KNOW AMERICANS HOW THEY FEEL ABOUT FORMER US PRESIDENT i.e. Goerge W bush ..but believe me or not he is very well known in iran and people like him much more than Obama !!! this is a fact and I hope you could see some slogans in strees which wrote long live bush and down with Obama ...hope was enough..at least the web site can track me and it shows I am writing this from tehran.....

[An activist Green Lurker]

i'm lat to this party - but needed to say - APK - you are deeply misinformed about NIAC.

will engage you in a separate thread in the future...