Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani

Hat-tip to a valued EA source for this story:

On the surface, the meeting was simply the greetings of a Supreme Leader to those organising the anniversary celebrations of his Islamic Republic. It was an occasion to declare that the most important aspect of any ceremony is the presence of the Iranian people, and it is important to protect them and guarantee their security.

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Not so far below the surface, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has just told other important Iranian political figures --- not those in "the opposition" but those within the establishment: Get Beside Me.

Of course Khamenei referred to the Green movement but he did so primarily to shoo it away: this was "merely a small deceived group". Behind them was the bigger threat of "the enemy [who] is trying to shaken our great national treasure, February 11 (anniversary of Iranian Revolution)".

The important passage in Khamenei's speech came after he declared, "Our real need is understanding that this is an important time for making decisions....We need to be in the arena in full force and make wise moves." He asked, or rather demanded, that all people with responsibility in the "elite" should "make their approach clear" and end their "two-sided stance". They should do so "without any ambiguity and playing of tricks"; the silence of the "elite aids the sedition."

Hashemi Rafsanjani, you have just been served a warning.

In the midst of the current battle between conservative/principlist critics and the Ahmadinejad Government, symbolised by the hostility over the alleged role of former prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi in the Kahrizak prison abuse case and the influence of close Ahmadinejad ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, Rafsanjani spoke to a group of students and university lecturers. He praised the current televised debates as an alternative to protest on the streets but said little about specific political issues.

Far too little for the Supreme Leader.

Ayatollah Khamenei's speech points to his frustration with Rafsanjani's cautious, ambiguous statements. But, going public with that frustration, it also shows the Supreme Leader's growing worry over the situation. Seven months ago, Khamenei could talk tough but still praise Rafsanjani, believing that the incipient opposition could soon be defeated. Well, the opposition is still here, Rafsanjani still hasn't chosen sides, and Khamenei must be hoping that this does not last another seven months. (Indeed, he may be thinking that, if this does last seven months, he may not be in a position to lecture Rafsanjani or the opposition any longer.)

Comments

[Ramin]

Hhm... I'm not sure whether I can agree with your assumptions... It indeed does make sense what you saying here but I am pretty sure he won't send such warnings publicly to Raffbo. As you stated, it would exposes his concern and frustration.

After all, it's important to be aware of what these words may imply. So I am by no means neglecting your assumptions.

[Scott Lucas]

Ramin,

I appreciate your caution. I would not have published this interpretation had it not been for inside information from an excellent EA source.

S.

[Roe Lassie]

Conversation in this house 10 mins ago - before I read this:

Spouse: "Khamenei has spoken again"
RL: "Did he say anything different than he said on the 17th June"
Spouse: "No, apart from saying those high-ranking and well known people should be clear about what they say"
RL: "So he's getting at Rafsanjani then?!"
Spouse: "Exactly"

[Bijan]

Not just simply side with Scott's analysis as ramin makes a good observation but without reading the entire speach, this seems like "classic" SL rhetoric to warn all those who may be even slightly standing in the way with implied references not only to Rafsanjani but others as well. Thanks to your source for sharing the news.

[shangool]

Is SL speaking for himself when he warns Rafs or is he speaking for Sepah. There was some chatter about a truce between SL and Rafs and how SL was goin to get rid of rouge elements within Sepah. I doubt rafs will come to an agreement with Sepah. Anyways, at the end of the day it dosen't matter what SL, AN, Rafs or Sepah says, people want this regime to go away. They Can't silence the people.

[Jack]

The way I see it. Both parties are severely constrained in their options. It is a stalemate. Raf must be terribly concerned that he appear to be green enough to survive the purge that would follow a collapse of the coup. At the same time he has Sepāh to worry about if he openly crosses the line. At the same time as long as the rest of the establishment believe that SL is very ill (which I think they do), they can't get too out of line with Raf. In the event that SL were to go to paradise (LOL), Raf would be the sole credible power base left among the elite, and I am sure he has a very long memory. It is a chess game that is in stalemate. SL is an idiot and Raf is a little brighter. It doesn't really matter though, because both of their hands can only be played one way as far as it relates to the struggle between them. The SL demands today for an end to half measures on Raf's part is in itself a half measure.

Of course the bigger story is that the moment is moving rapidly past both men. In my opinion the events of Ashura placed the final ball of the game in motion. it can be slowed down or sped up, but it cannot be stopped and will reach its destination. It is somewhat academic if AN falls prior to the end, and to a certain extent that is true for the SL as well. The only exception I guess would be if SL were to croak right now. Even then, Raf would be so constrained in his choices that the regime would cease to exist as we know it anyway. He would have to basically invite the greens into power. Anything less would keep the people on the street.