Israel: A Government Divided over Turkey and "The Ayalon Crisis"?

The Israeli Government is still in some confusion after Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon's full apology over his "undiplomatic" attitude towards Turkey's ambassador Ahmet Oguz Celikkol. Israel's President Shimon Peres said that Ayalon's treatment reflected the "mistake of one man, not of the state":

It was not diplomatic... and it's good that he apologized. This should not be connected to the whole state or to all diplomats. We must learn not to do this again.

However, the Israeli Foreign Ministry slammed a group of 17 members of Parliament who sent a letter of apology to Turkey over Ayalon's treatment of the ambassador. A member of Ayalon's staff told Israel Radio:

Israel and Turkey: “Ayalon Has Nothing to Apologize For"
Israel & Turkey: A Reset in Relations?

Ayalon respects the MKs who apologized, but where were they over the past two years of anti-Semitic broadcasts in the Turkish media and unbridled criticism of Israel from Ankara? After two years in which Turkey has failed to get the diplomatic message, we had to start making a noise one official told Israel.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Israel does not want a confrontation with Turkey but will not tolerate anti-Semitic remarks and incitement against Jews.

In contrast, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his satisfaction with Ayalon's apology. So, could the ambassador crisis, possibly planned by Lieberman and played out by Ayalon, bring an advantage to the Prime Minister?

Netanyahu could use the incident to diminish, if not neutralise, the influence of Lieberman's Israel Beiteinu party. He couldameliorate Israel's image in the eyes of  the international community, bringing credibility in the approaching round of peace talks. And, in case of another crisis with Ankara, he could walk the line that apologies will be offered if any mistake is made but Turkey's continuous criticisms is an unwarranted expression of anti-Semitism.

In the short term, the Israeli Prime Minister has kept talks with Ankara on track. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared, "Israel must put itself in order and it must be more just and more on the side of peace in the region," but given Ayalon's apology, Erdogan was ready for discussions.

That process is well under way. Before Defense Minister Ehud Barak's visit to Ankara on Sunday, Ministry official Udi Shani returned from an official visit in which the March delivery of 10 Heron drone aircraft to Turkey was confirmed.

Jordan: The Attack on the Israeli Embassy Convoy

On Thursday, a bomb was detonated near an Israeli Embassy convoy in Amman, Jordan. According to Israel's Channel 2, the convoy was entering a Jordanian army base. The spokeswoman at the Israeli Embassy in Amman, Merav Horsendi, confirmed the incident and added, "All I can say now is that everyone is fine."

So far, no organization immediately claimed responsibility for the failed attack. Israeli chatter, however, is focusing on Lebanon's Hezbollah. The Jerusalem Post reports that, following the failed attempt to bomb the Israeli Embassy in Azerbaijan last year,  the Israeli defense establishment has been on high alert over Hezbollah. In particular, Israel was watching for a strike on an Israeli target ahead of the 3rd anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Imad Fayez Mughniyeh death.

Today in EA (12 January 2010)

Iran: News from Iran this morning concentrates on the booby-trap bomb explosion in Tehran that killed Professor Massoud Mohammadi. We have the latest, which includes indication that Mohammadi was not involved in Iran's nuclear programme, and a video of state media's presentation of the event.

Links to this and other top stories, from EA and other media, are available as always, in our weblog.

Amidst recent coverage of Iran and Twitter,  and following yesterday's contributions on this issue, we have a comprehensive analysis today from Christopher Parsons, which seeks to dispell some of the fear, uncertainty and doubt around the Iranian Government's use of digital surveillance techniques.

Scott Lucas considers, amidst recent statements by Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohamad Khatami, the way forward for the opposition: "The question may not be how the regime reacts to these statements  but how the Green movement(s) respond."

US/Israel: Israel media suggest that, behind the scenes, Israel's relationship with the Obama Administration is flourishing, despite Washington's recent sale of arms to four "moderate" Arab states.

Turkey/Israel: A meeting between Turkish and Lebanese Prime Ministers turned into a platform for sharp criticism of  Israel.

Turkey & Israel: Clashes over Iran, Lebanon, Gaza...and a TV Show

At the diplomatic level, Monday was the occasion for Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to display ties between the two countries. Both leaders not only lifted visa requirements between each country and criticised Israel.

Following Hariri's statement, "Today, Israel continues its violation of our airspace and waters," Erdogan urged Israel to stop violating Lebanon's airspace and territorial waters and promised to support Lebanon's case against Israel at the United Nations, where Turkey is a temporary member of the Security Council.

Middle East Arms Triangle: The US, “Moderate” Arabs, & Israel

Then Erdogan went far beyond Lebanon:

We can never remain silent in the face of Israel's attitude. ... It has disproportionate power and it is using that at will while refusing to abide by UN resolutions. We can never accept this picture. These steps threaten global peace.

Erdogan moved to the case of Iran, calling on the Security Council to put the same pressure on Israel's nuclear programme as it does on Tehran's:

The region cannot accept a new Iraq syndrome. Those who are warning Iran over nuclear weapons are not making the same warnings to Israel. Five permanent members of the Security Council must be just. Israel has not denied the existence of its nuclear arsenal; on the contrary it has admitted it.

On Gaza, Erdogan reached his climax. Referring to the killings of three Hamas militants by Israeli forces last weekend, he asked: "What is your excuse this time?" He continued: "No one can claim that phosphorus shells are not weapons of mass destruction."

Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon called Erdogan's comments "damaging and one-sided," saying they certainly didn't aid Turkey's efforts to play a Middle East mediation role. Meanwhile, Ayalon summoned Turkish ambassador to Israel Oguz Celikkol to the Knesset to express outrage over a new Turkish television show that depicts Mossad agents as baby snatchers.

Following the crisis last year over the Turkish series, Ayrilik (Farewell), another dispute has erupted over the Turkish drama Kurtlar Vadisi (Valley of the Wolves). In an episode broadcast two weeks ago, a baby kidnapped by the Mafia is brought to the Israel Embassy. The leading actor enter the embassy to save the baby, protected by Mossad agents, and in the confrontation, blood spreads on the Star of David on the Israeli flag. When the would-be rescuer is told by an Israeli official that he is committing a war crime, since the Embassy is the land of a foreign country, he replies: "Are you always going to commit war crimes?"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoYM663_N2k[/youtube]

After the meeting, Ayalon called the TV show as "intolerable" and said he had told Celikkol, "These things, against the background of the very, very anti-Israeli rhetoric by the most senior officials in Turkey, not only harm relations, but also endanger the Jewish community in Turkey, the Israeli diplomats there - to say nothing of the Israeli tourists who visit there."

Meanwhile, it was claimed by Israeli Channel 2 that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, in response to the broadcast of the controversial program, is seeking to torpedo Defense Minister Ehud Barak's upcoming trip to Turkey.

Middle East Arms Triangle: The US, "Moderate" Arabs, & Israel

On 6 January, we reported that the Netanyahu government had concerns over Washington's sale of about $6 billion of arms to four "moderate" Arab states (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates) and Washington. We asked whether the Israelis were pursuing  the complaint to argue the argument that the regional balance of power would collapse because of the arms shipments, regardless of how "moderate" the Arabs states are.

The background to the current manoeuvres lies in Israel's concerns over a $20 billion arms deal between Saudi Arabia and the George W. Bush Administration. On that occasion, Tel Aviv used its concerns as leverage to receive advanced F-35 fighter jets and to limit American arms sales to Lebanon amidst the re-emergence of Hezbollah. So far, no arms deal with Israel have been signed under Obama, and there is the issue of  shipment of higher-tech arms under the 2007 Memorandum of Understanding, which promised $30 billion to Tel Aviv over the following 10 years.

In that context, perhaps the immediate postures over the US-Arab deals should situated under the US-Israel strategic relationship. The Jewish Daily Forward has noted:

Leaders in Washington and Jerusalem have publicly locked horns over the issue of West Bank settlements. And Israeli public opinion has largely viewed America’s new administration as unfriendly. But behind the scenes, strategic security relations between the two countries are flourishing.