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Entries in Peyke Iran (9)

Friday
Jan222010

The Latest from Iran (22 January): Breaking News 

0030 GMT: Just a quick note to say that we've extended our break. We'll be back first thing Saturday morning with full updates, including the latest on "the plot against Ahmadinejad".

1845 GMT: We're going to catch our breath tonight after the excitement of today. We'll be back later for a wrap-up; in the meantime, keep sending in information and your analyses.

1820 GMT: Larijani's Opening? We'll need to get more on this statement by Ali Larijani, during Friday Prayers in Saveh, southwest of Tehran, but there is a hint in Mehr News that the Speaker of Parliament has extended a hand to different factions when it paraphrases, "Every effort should be made to foster unity in society, and everyone should refrain from divisive actions meant to drive individuals off the political stage."

The Persian-language report, significantly, devotes most of its attention not to the "unity" statement but to Larijani's critique of the Government's economic proposals.

NEW Iran: A Response to "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad"
NEW Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad
Iran: How Should the US Treat the Green Movement? (Haghighatjoo)
2009: The View from Inside Iran
Iran Analysis: “Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani” — The Sequels
The Latest from Iran (21 January): Speaking in Codes


1735 GMT: Press TV Censors Ahmad Khatami? Surely not, but the website curiously omits any mention of Khatami's warning to Iranian protesters and the call for all to choose the side of the Supreme Leader (see 1250 and 1645 GMT). Instead, the entire report is "Cleric Says Iran Nuclear Case Important 'Test'".

1730 GMT: Journalist Leili Farhadpour has been arrested.

1645 GMT: More on That Friday Prayer (see 1250 GMT). Persian2English translates passages of Ahmad Khatami's statement, which is his usual warning to deviant demonstrators:
To our brothers who call themselves protesters, we ask, how much longer are you going to continue with your protests? Are you still going to use your destructive statements which neglect the law? Are you going to water the roots of those who try to turn any cooperative situation into a conflict? They say it was not them who created the chaos; the question is who initiated this atmosphere? How long are you going to continue your protests and annoy the people?

This passage, however, does give pause for consideration: "The group who considers themselves critics should announce where they stand. Either they are on this side [with the Supreme Leader and velayat-e-faqih] or they are on the other side. There is no third way."

That seems to echo Ayatollah Khamenei's statement earlier this week on "make your decision", but to whom was Khatami pointing the statement? Those deviant demonstrators, or the "critics within" the establishment?

1530 GMT: The German magazine Der Spiegel reports that Abed Tavancheh has been sentenced to one year in an Iranian prison for giving an interview about student protests.

1525 GMT: Hassan Rohani, an ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has continued to clash with President Ahmadinejad over the "failed" 4th Development Plan. After the Government ridiculed his data, Rohani has responded in detail in Peyke Iran.

1515 GMT: Earlier today (0845 GMT), we noted the manifesto of 31 Iranian expatriate intellectuals and artists: "The way out of this darkness, and of poverty and oppression caused by it, is that people make clear their relationship with tyranny through free elections, monitored by competent international institutions." This will bring "a system separating government from religion institutions, on behalf of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, separating legislative and executive powers, and [ensuring] judicial independence".

The statement has now been picked up by BBC Persian and by Radio Farda.

1309 GMT: The Purge at Allameh Tabatabei University. We've had reports this week of academic staff being terminated or relieved of duties. Putting them together:

Political philosopher Seyed Morteza Mardiha and women’s rights activist Saba Vasefi have been banned from teaching. According to Tabnak, eight faculty in the Economics Department have been expelled, and all but one stripped of the right to teach. The salaries of two faculty members of the Department of Agriculture have been cut.

The Development Program at Allameh Tabatabei has been completely terminated.

1250 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. It's Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami setting out all that's significant in religion and politics today. Behold:

When you hold an election, that's the people's opportunity to put forth their views. Then someone wins and you stop for four years. Ahmadinejad won. So, protesters, be quiet.

And the US military is occupying Haiti, which proves they are very bad.

1240 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has opened a factory at Khorasan Steel and dealt with the current political crisis by calling on all Iranians to have a spiritual focus and obey Allah.

1235 GMT: Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that the files of 18 more Ashura protesters have been sent to the Revolutionary Court.

1015 GMT: We have posted comments from an EA correspondent on our featured analysis, "The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad".

0845 GMT: The Opposition Manifesto. More than 30 expatriate Iranian intellectuals and artists have issued a statement in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

0835 GMT: Slamming the  Opposition. Last night's debate on Iranian state media was a non-debate, as MPs Ruhollah Hosseinian and Alaeddin Boroujerdi were generally in agreement. An EA correspondent describes it as a “Love-Making discussion in which both side were praising and appreciating each other".

There was some drama, however. In addition to his claim of "a plot within" to topple the Government, Hosseinian talked of the "Axis of Revolt" of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. He offered this advice: the Supreme Leader was too patient with the opposition --- "if we had the authority; we would have sorted it out straightaway".

0820 GMT: An Iranian activist has posted a list, with English translation, of the arrest and current state (if known) of 229 people arrested on 16 Azar (7 December) or in the Tasua-Ashura demonstrations (26-27 December).

0655 GMT: We are putting the last touches to what we believe is a significant story: a high-level plan to move against President Ahmadinejad and possibly remove him from office. As soon as that is completed, we will update on latest news. (We have now posted the story.)
Tuesday
Jan192010

The Latest from Iran (19 January): Cross-Currents

2115 GMT: Persian2English, from Ali Tavakoli, reports that the Revolutionary Court has handed down an 8 1/2-year prison sentence to student leader Majid Tavakoli, arrested on 16 Azar (7 December), for participation in an illegal gathering (5 years), propaganda against the regime (1 year), insult of the Supreme Leader (2 years), and insult of the President (6 months). In addition, Tavakoli is banned from any involvement in political activities and forbidden to leave the country for five years.

1940 GMT: Nuclear Deadlock. The Associated Press reports, from diplomatic sources, that Tehran has formally responded to the "third-party enrichment" proposal by insisting that a swap of uranium stock has to take place inside Iran.

1935 GMT: The Khatami Criticism. The website sympathetic to Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a full summary of Mohammad Khatami's scatching critique of the Ahmadinejad Government (1545 GMT and 1749 GMT). Another notable extract is Khatami's assessment of the Parliamentary investigation on the detainee abuses at Kahrizak Prison: “This report is a sad evidence of a disaster in the Islamic Republic....Much of the truth has not been told but even this little is enough to shaken the back bone of those devoted to the establishment, Islam and Iran."

NEW Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani
NEW Iran Special: Breaking Mousavi’s Movement — Beheshti & Abutalabi
NEW Iran Analysis: Reality Check (Yep, We Checked, Government Still in Trouble)
Iran Analysis: How “Mohareb” Death Sentences May Hurt Regime
Latest Iran Video: Marandi on CNN on Detainee Abuses “Mortazavi to Blame” (17 January)

The Latest from Iran (18 January): Firewall


1920 GMT: Rah-e Sabz is now saying that the reported closure of the Hosseinieh at Jamaran (see 1800 GMT) by Seyed Hassan Khomeini was a lie of the "conservative" press and the house of worship is now open for "people's pilgrimage".

1800 GMT: Closing Down Khomeini? The Hosseiniyeh (house of worship) of Jamaran in northern Tehran, where Ayatollah Khomeini lived, has been sealed up. The Hosseinieh was the site of the memorial service for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and the speech of Mohammad Khatami, broken up by pro-Government activists on Tasua (26 December).

Perhaps the closing of the Hosseinieh is a wise move, because the Khomeinis seem to be a troublesome bunch these days. On Friday, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, paid a visit to the family of Seyed Ali Mousavi, the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi who was killed on Ashura. Seyed Yasser Khomeini, the other grandson of Imam Khomeini, was one of the reformist clerics present.

1749 GMT: Quote of the Day. From Mohammad Khatami (see 1545 GMT): "You cannot rule a people with rage and by force."

1744 GMT: Cracking Down More and More. Alongside our specific analysis of regime attempts to break the Mousavi camp comes this wider claim from Peyke Iran: 50 political activists and 800 Ashura protesters are under heavy pressure to name friends who participated in the demonstrations. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has given permission to detain "all" who participated in Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's memorial and Ashura rallies.

1735 GMT: More Newspaper Fun (see 0820 GMT). President Ahmadinejad's advisor for press affairs, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, has condemned earlier indifferences to the press law and promises to handle it more carefully.

Hmm.... Given that 10 publications (Sarmayeh, Hayat-e Nou, Kalameh, Farhang-e Ashti, Hemmat, Mowj-e Andisheh, Kargozaran, Etemad-e Melli, Arya, and Ham-Mihan) have been shut down recently and Rah-e-Sabz has reported that it received a warning, I'm not sure "indifference" is the term I would have used.

1725 GMT: Thanks to excellent EA sources, we have two special analyses this afternoon: a reading of the Supreme Leader's latest speech as a warning to Hashemi Rafsanjani and a look at the detentions of two key aides to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ali Reza Beheshti and Massoud Abutalabi.

1553 GMT: The Internet Threat. Iran's police forces have continued to talk tough about their monitoring of the Internet and mobile communications. A few days after warning Iranians against any organisation of protest via e-mail or text message, the police website declared, "After the publication of pictures of Ashura day [of] rioters on the police website and in the police special edition, ... more than 40 elements of sedition were identified and arrested with the cooperation of noble Iranians."

1545 GMT: The Khatami Statement. Mohammad Khatami has made another pointed intervention today. Speaking with a group of post-election detainees who have been released, he criticised those in power who "commit violence with complete immunity" and declared, "Many lies have been told these days and many promises have been made but people see those in charge of their affairs have not done much."

Khatami also put out the message that the Green movement is operating with legal boundaries and with respect for the Islamic Republic, "People realise that many of the protesters are not ill-intentioned and their protest is reasonable."

1530 GMT: Back from a day of academic duties to catch up with news. We are working on a major story about arrests and hope to have that posted within 45 minutes.

0830 GMT: Memorials and Tributes. A series of pointed testimonies yesterday: the students of the slain professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi have posted a video tribute, the mother of the detained student leader Majid Tavakoli spoke with Voice of America, and the father of Seyed Ali Mousavi (the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi killed on Ashura) has talked about his son's death.

/(The Voice of America programme also includes an interesting discussion on tensions within the regime.)

0820 GMT: In the Newspaper World.... Curious develpments with the banning of three weeklies --- Mowj-e Andisheh, Hemmat, and Farhang-e Ashti --- by Iranian authorities.

The curiosity lies not in the bans, which are a frequent occurrence, but in the immediate reincarnation of Hemmat 2. With Hemmat reportedly suspended for publishing about the "friends of Hashemi Rafsanjani", its successor considers the friends of Rafsanjani and of the Supreme Leader.

Brighter minds than mine will have to sort this one out.

0815 GMT: A Grand Ayatollah and the "Secular Greens". The 15-p0int manifesto of the Secular Green Movement continues to gather signatories. Interesting to see this name among them: Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Hossein Kazemeyni Boroujerdi, who has called for separation of religion and government and who --- with many of his followers --- was arrested in 2006.

0810 GMT: Remembering, Living Ashura. The blogger Persian Umpire returns, having found an Internet connection, with a first-hand account of the events of Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December).

0735 GMT: We've noted, in our morning analysis, the current of opinion "within the Establishment" against the Ahmadinejad. We're not saying it's time for the President to pack his bags, but the situation is far from settled.

Ahmadinejad's most notable statement on Monday was another jump away from the domestic arena. He used a visit from Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze to take a swipe at the "West", declaring that NATO's eastward expansion does not serve the interests of the countries in the region. (Which tells you that the Foreign Minister was just a prop, since Georgia has been pressing for that expansion --- remember the background to the 2008 Georgia-Russia conflict?)

On the economic front, however, there may be another current against the President. The Tehran Times --- not, I hasten to add, an opposition publication --- has what appears to be an extraordinary declaration from Mohsen Bahrami-Arz-Aqdas, the chairman of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce: foreign investments in Iran tumbled 96 percent in the Iranian calendar year 1387 (March 2008-March 2009).

In the face of the economic sitaution, Bahrami-Arz-Aqdas said the Parliament should postpone Ahmadinejad's 5-Year Development Plan until next year, especially given the lack of goals and vagueness in the document.
Bahrami added that the 10 percent growth cited in the plan requires the investment which continues to decline.

The Government's cross-current against this continued unsettling news? More threats, more trials. Claimed footage of the hearing for two "mohareb" (war against God) defendants has now emerged.
Thursday
Jan142010

The Latest from Iran (14 January): The Professor's Funeral

1925 GMT: A (Pick the) Number of Protesters Will Be Tried Sometime in the Future with War Against the Regime (and Maybe God). Press TV trots out the latest press release to show Justice Will Be Done over the protests of Ashura (27 December):
Iran's judiciary says it has forwarded the cases of sixteen individuals indicted in connection with the Ashura riot in Tehran to the Revolution Court.

The Tehran Prosecutor's office said in a statement that one of the defendants could be charged with being "mohareb" (enemy of God) — a crime punishable by execution.

The fifteen [other] suspects were charged with "conspiring against national security and carrying out acts against the establishment," the statement added.

This is the latest in a series of public set-pieces. A couple of weeks ago, "seven" defendants appeared in Revolutionary Guard. Then there was the announcement that "five" demonstrators would be charged as "mohareb".

All of this, in contrast to the public show of the Tehran trials in August, seems just a bit haphazard.

1840 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has offered condolences to the family of Professor Ali-Mohammadi.

1835 GMT: Payvand has a useful summary of 19 women's rights activists and female journalists who were detained in the days after the Ashura protests.

1825 GMT: Professor Ali-Mohammadi and Sweden. There has been a lot of chatter around the theory that Massoud Ali-Mohammadi was killed by regime loyalists, in part because he was going to take up a fellowship at Stockholm University in Sweden. We've done some checking:

1. We can establish nothing beyond the claim of the physicist's colleagues that "he had been in touch" with Stockholm about a one-year research grant. That's not necessarily "taking up" a fellowship, since in many cases, an application is made to a funding body, e.g., the European Union's research support programmes, for a Visiting Scholar.

The claim, without further evidence, was exaggerated on prominent blogs into Ali-Mohammadi definitely leading the country.

2. It is not necessarily an anti-regime step to take up an overseas fellowship. I personally know academics who support the regime who have held such fellowships.

3. There is nothing to indicate that Ali-Mohammadi's research fellowship would have turned into a defection.

4. There's a contradiction in the theory. If Ali-Mohammadi was in fact a particle physicist who had little or no connection with Iran's nuclear programme, why would there be a risk for the regime in his taking up a fellowship, since he would have no sensitive information to disclose?

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Life, Death, and Funeral of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (14 January)
NEW Latest Iran Video: “A Message to Armed Forces of Iran” (13 January)
NEW Iran Analysis: Political Manoeuvring Around the Professor’s Death
Iran Analysis: Nuclear Myths, Rogue Elements, and Professor Ali-Mohammadi’s Murder
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Death of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (13 January)
Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)

The Latest from Iran (13 January): Speculations and Realities


1800 GMT: Follow-up on Troublesome Clerics. We noted last night that clerics are re-emerging to challenge the Government. Ayande News has the letter of Ayatollah Mohammad Sadeghi Tehrani declaring that any official position for Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, former First Vice President and current Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff, is religiously forbidden. And Persian2English posts the text of Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's position on velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority):

QUESTION: Recently, the slogan "the principle of the supreme leader is part of our religion [Islam]’s principle” was heard and repeatedly broadcast on TV. Are the principles of religion among secondary principles? Can something be added to it or deducted from it? Isn’t this slogan a blasphemy? According to Islam what sentence should be considered for [those who challenge velayat-e-faqih]? What is our responsibility?

ZANJANI: The principle of the supreme leader is a political and juridical principle, and an arguable subject among Faqihs. Although it seems to be the right principle, it’s not the principle of religion and denying it is not infidelity. Those who claim otherwise are innovating and they should be rejected.

1500 GMT: Parleman News reports that Hassan Abedi Jafari, an advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been released from detention. It is claimed that Jafari's seven-year prison sentence has been overturned.

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has told Al Jazeera that her sister Noushin has been freed from prison.

1425 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that the chief editor of Aftab-e Yazd has resigned to prevent the closure of the daily newspaper.

1415 GMT: Arrests and Jail Terms. Mohammad Ali Shirzadi, documentary-maker and member of the Committee of Prisoner's Defense was arrested Monday night. His whereabouts are still unknown.

Salman Sima, a member of the Students Policymaking Council, has been given a six-year prison sentence by the Revolutionary Court. SPC senior members Ahmad Zeydabadi and Abdollah Momeni have also received long jail terms.

Peyke Iran is reporting that 100 protesters detained on Ashura (27 December) have been put in the solitary-confinement cells of Gohardasht prison in Karaj.

1405 GMT: Linking Economics and Politics. It might be worthwhile to keep an eye on Khabar Online, which has been poking at the Government. First, there was the rebuff of the official line that Professor Ali-Mohammadi was part of Iran's nuclear programme (see 1025 GMT). Now there is this economic story, which intersects with comments EA readers have been making:
Currently several projects in Iran's rich gas field of South Pars have come to a halt or are to be closed down....Sirous Sazdar, a member of the energy committee of Iranian Parliament (Majlis) emphasized that the gas ventures of the country are not developed in an efficient manner. He referred to the fact that from the last year the capacity of Iran's gas production has not boosted.

"This winter the weather was on the side of Iranian gas officials. The gas production capacity of the country is about 500 million cubic meters per day. This year if the weather had grown so cold like what people experienced in winter 2008, we would need 700 million cubic meters of gas and could face a shortage of 200 million cubic meters a day," he said.

"Although these days the weather is not that much cold, we witness that to provide consumer gas for houses and business places, the officials have dropped the bulk of delivered gas to power stations by 30 million cubic meters," Sazdar pointed out.

The wider significance? Khabar is far from a reformist publication; indeed, it's considered to be close to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. So, while Larijani makes his statements promoting the hard line against the Green movement, an allied publication is making trouble for President Ahmadinejad....

1350 GMT: Israel Did It. Pretty much a complete summary of today's comment by President Ahmadinejad on the Ali-Mohammadi killing, although he did dress it up a bit:
The depth of the enemies' grudge can be seen in the university professor's assassination. The manner of bomb planting shows a Zionist style and they want to make sure that Iran would not advance. [Iran's foes] don't want to see thinkers and scientists in Iran and do not want to see its development. The enemies can not take away the concept of genius from Iran by killing geniuses.

1345 GMT: Complementing today's video of the Ali-Mohammadi funeral, we've posted the video of an Al Jazeera debate, featuring Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, and Joshua Goodman, over the politics around his death. (See our initial comments on this debate in yesterday's updates.)

1215 GMT: Reliable sources report that Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, has been released from detention. Kazemi has been in jail, on two separate occasions, for most of the post-election period.

1210 GMT: We have posted two videos of the life and death of Ali-Mohammadi, a report on today's funeral and an interview with his colleague.

1200 GMT: An Eyewitness Account of the Ali-Mohammadi Funeral. An EA correspondent has received the following from a "very reliable" source:
The street in front of Ali-Mohammadi's house was filled to the brim with louts who were bussed in to chant "Death to America". They essentially hijacked the street AND the house of Ali-Mohammadi.

Ali-Mohammadi's family were holed up inside their home by security forces, and they have been threatened since yesterday. His wife was screaming "You finally killed him!" [this detail has also been reported by Rah-e-Sabz]. The students and professors were forced to go into a separate procession. They started shouting religious intonations for the dead and were assaulted by plainclothesmen.

No one has any shred of doubt in Tehran any longer as to who really killed him --- it's the security forces, in one way or another.

Rah-e-Sabz reports the following from another eyewitness:

There was a heavy presence of security forces, with no one was allowed to stand in front of Ali-Mohammadi's home. Police loudspeakers were ordering people out of the street and onto the burial site. The streets around it were packed with plainclothes and ordinary police. Three women photographers working for "foreign news agencies" were arrested by the female division of the police.

A brother of Ali-Mohammadi has claimed that his desktop computer has been taken away from his house, and he and another relative [the Professor's wife] claims the authorities killed him.

A statement which Fars claimed last night to have obtained from Ali-Mohammadi's family was false. According to the same source, the family hasn't made any statements yet.

1035 GMT: OK, I'll Stay for 99% Support. Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, who had threatened to resign as a member of Parliament because there has not been “100% support for Ayatollah Khamenei”, has decided to stay after discussions with President Ahmadinejad's advisors. Hosseinian reportedly presented the revocation of his resignation directly to the Supreme Leader.

1030 GMT: The Ali-Mohammadi Funeral. Peyke Iran has a report on the event, including the observation of a heavy security presence which remains even though the funeral has concluded.

1025 GMT: Khabar Online has challenged the official line on Professor Ali-Mohammadi, highlighting the statement from the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization that the physicist did not work with the nuclear programme.

0945 GMT: We've posted an interesting video --- makers unknown --- calling on Iran's armed forces to join the Green movement.

0930 GMT: Another University Statement on Ali-Mohammadi. Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a statement from Allameh Tabatabei University, declaring that Iranian scientists are victims of counter-revolutionaries associated with global threats, arrogance, and Zionism.

0910 GMT: We now have confirmation, including photograph in our inset box, of heavy security presence around the funeral of Professor Ali-Mohammadi, as authorities fear that the occasion will bring protests.

0710 GMT: The Move Against Ahmadinejad's Government. Radio Farda returns to a key story beyond the Ali-Mohammadi news: member of Parliament Ali Motahari's ongoing campaign against the President and his allies. Motahari has again called for the removal of the legal immunity of Saeed Mortazavi, former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Presidential aide, in the investigation of detainee abuses.

0640 GMT: And There Will Be Free Cupcakes for All. You cannot accuse President Ahmadinejad of being cautious in his declarations. Here is a nugget from his speech in Khuzestan in southwestern Iran on Wednesday.
Iran is a rich country and if justice is established not even a single person will be unemployed or poor....I have also assured the parliament members that if the plan is implemented by a smooth mechanism, Iran will not have even a single jobless or poor within three years.

0635 GMT: Unsurprisingly, the leading news today continues to be the speculation and political manipulation of the killing of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi. We have posted a latest analysis. We will also post, later today, the video of the discussion on Al Jazeera English's "Inside Story" --- including academics Seyed Mohammad Marandi and Siavush Randjbar-Daemi --- of the case.

Ali-Mohammadi's funeral is today, and we will be watching for any sign of a demonstration around it.
Thursday
Jan072010

Latest from Iran (7 January): Radio Silence?

IRAN GREEN2155 GMT: Hmm.... Looks like the homepage of Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has been visited by a hacker.

2150 GMT: Are You Listening in Tel Aviv? The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, has pretty much slapped a public restraining order on an Israeli attack on Iran. He told the Washington Institute of Near East Policy that Iran was "on a path that has strategic intent to develop nuclear weapons and have been for some time" and "that outcome is potentially a very, very destabilizing outcome"; however, he continued:
On the other hand, when asked about striking Iran, specifically, that also has a very, very destabilizing outcome....That part of the world could become much more unstable, which is a dangerous global outcome.

(Here's a surprise: Iran's Press TV is already featuring Mullen's words.)

Iran: The “10 Demands” Manifesto – Soroush Speaks
Iran & Twitter 101: Getting The Facts Right — A Response to Will Heaven
Iran & Twitter 101: Rereading A Tale of Two Twitterers
Latest Iran Video: Football’s Back…And It’s Still Green (6 January)
Iran: Hillary Clinton on Engagement & Pressure with Regime of “Ruthless Repression”
UPDATED Iran: The 60 Forbidden Foreign Organisations
The Latest from Iran (6 January): Distractions


2125 GMT: An Iranian blog has published pictures of those trying to attack Mehdi Karroubi in Qazvin tonight (see 2025 GMT).


An Iranian activist has posted a summary on Facebook, claiming about 200 plainclothes "thugs" gathered outside the house where Karroubi was staying. The police tried to prevent a confrontation as about 500 people looked on; however, according to the activist, there were Revolutionary Guard commanders amongst the would-be attackers. When Karroubi was leaving, his car was pelted with eggs and broken bricks.

2120 GMT: Deutsche Welle publishes a story mentioned by one of our readers earlier today. The Iranian Government has declared that "defaced" banknotes will not be considered as legal currency as of 16 January. The announcement is clearly aimed at the widespread movement of protest by putting Green slogans on the currency.

In response, the opposition has declared that 17 January will be a day of protest with massive circulation of the "Green" banknotes.

2039 GMT: 99% Support is Not Enough. Peyke Iran reports that Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian has resigned as a member of Parliament because there has not been "100% support for Ayatollah Khamenei". Hosseinian is considered a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, whom he has served as security advisor. He is also a former Deputy Minister of Intelligence.

2025 GMT: Karroubi Visit and Qazvin Clashes. A lot of chatter about Mehdi Karroubi's trip to Qazvin, 165 miles northwest of Tehran. Saham News reports that there were clashes when  the home of Hojetoleslam Ghavami, where Karroubi was staying, was attacked.

2000 GMT: Iranian human rights groups report that student leader Majid Tavakoli, detained after his speech at the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, has been tried and sentenced in Revolutionary Court.

Tavakoli, given permission to contact his family for the first time since his arrest, said he was charged with insulting the Supreme Leader, insulting the President, and gathering and spreading propaganda against the regime. The trial was held behind closed doors, and Tavakoli remains in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

Iranian authorities attempted to humiliate Tavakoli by distributing his photograph in woman's hejab, prompting the protest "We Are All Majid".

1950 GMT: Fasih Yasamani was hanged on Wednesday.

Yasamani, in prison since 2007, was accused of belonging to the opposition party Pajvak,
an armed Kurdish group. The evidence against Yasamani were his confessions, which he claimed were obtained by torture.

The 28-year-old Yasamani is the second Kurdish citizen executed since the June election. Ehsan Fattahian was killed on 11 November.

Iranian human rights groups claim that there are 17 other political prisoners on death row in Kurdistan.

1945 GMT:Ashura "Mohareb" Trials? Islamic Republic News Agency reports that five of the protesters on Ashura (27 December) will be tried in Revolutionary Court.

There has already reportedly been a trial of demonstrators. The distinction in this report is these five will be charged with "mohareb" (a war against God), a crime which can be punished by death.

1730 GMT: Radio Silence Indeed. Because of complications of site outage and my commitments in Beirut, we've been limited in updates today. I'll be here about 1930 GMT to go through the day's events.

1005 GMT: Missing. The husband of student activist Bahareh Hedayat, has told Rooz Online, "We have no information about her." Hedayat was detained at the end of December.

1000 GMT: A Petition with Caution.
An interesting story out of Australia....

After the resignation of an Iranian diplomat in Norway in protest over the Government's handling of the post-election conflict, Iran Solidarity in Melbourne has posted a petition asking Iran's Ambassador to Australia to give up his post.

There's a note on the petition, however, which points to fear as well as activism: "***READ BEFORE SIGNING*** UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES SHOULD ANYBODY USE THEIR REAL NAME WHEN SIGNING THIS PETITION."

0625 GMT: Tantalising --- but True? One claim, and it is only a claim at this point, to note: Maziar Bahari writes in Newsweek: "Sources close to conservatives say that some leading figures are now pressing [Supreme Leader] Khamenei to dump [President] Ahmadinejad in order to preserve his own position."

0620 GMT: Possibly the quietest period in Iranian politics since June, even in chatter amongst our Internet sources.

Speaking of those sources, we have two special analyses this morning. Josh Shahryar offers a detailed response to a recent article ridiculing the role of social media in the post-election events in Iran. And I flash back to late June with "A Tale of Two Twitterers".

We'll be on limited service today because of conference duties. Please keep sending in news and comment, especially if situation picks up later today.
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