Israel-Turkey: Another Visit for the "Strategic" Relationship

Following Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak's visit to Ankara, Foreign Ministry Director-General Yossi Gal will today hold official meetings with Turkish officials on the biannual Turkish-Israeli strategic dialogue.

According to Israeli officials, the last meeting was held six months ago. The discussion included regional developments such as those in Iran and Iraq as well as relationss with the European Union.

According to the Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, the scheduled visit of Gal --- who is seen as a representative of the "hawkish" wing of Israeli politics --- is a "positive" sign that West Jerusalem wants to ameliorate relations, even though Israeli officials stated that it was scheduled well before last week's diplomatic crisis between Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon and Turkish ambassador Ahmet Oguz Celikkol.

Iran Analysis: Reality Check (Yep, We Checked, Government Still in Trouble)

A new EA reader kindly advised us yesterday to make a "reality check" on which is happening in Iran, as he/she is not so sure that the situation is anything but A-OK for the regime. That's good advice, as information and analysis should always be re-considered to ensure there is no exaggeration or distortion.

OK, we've checked again. Government still in trouble.

We have tracked tensions within the regime since June, so criticism "from within" of the Government is not new. What is distinctive now, after the blocked attempt at "national unity" before Ashura (27 December) and the demonstrations and confrontation on it, is the sustained campaign against President Ahmadinejad and his closest allies.

Ayande News, which has devoted the last few day to Government-bashing, goes so far as to declare that Ahmadinejad and his Ministers have missed a "golden opportunity" before the Revolution's anniversary on 22 Bahman (11 February) to resolve the crisis. Not just a opportunity, in fact, but a series of opportunities: the article is a history lesson on Government mistakes since12 June and through the demonstrations of 13 June, 15 June, 18 Tir (9 July), 17 July, Qods Day in September, 13 Aban (4 November), and 16 Azar (7 December) to the present.

Meanwhile, the specific campaign against the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Ayande claims that, in a meeting in Mashhad, Ahmadinejad said that Rahim-Mashai is a “relative of God”.

Just as striking, in the face of the more-than-insignificant criticism, is the Government's haphazard response to these developments. We noted yesterday, with the help of Edward Yeranian, how the "mohareb" (war against God) trials seemed to be a rather scrambled attempt --- with far less coordination as a public campaign --- to blacken the opposition, and its supposed foreign backing, out of existence. Today, after the hearings of the supposed mohareb, there is no sustained regime follow-up. Look instead for more hastily-arranged trials to do something --- anything --- to keep the campaign ticking over against the Green movement as a "terrorist" front.

That campaign will be both assisted and exposed by event. Yesterday, a prosecutor in northwestern Iran was assassinated by two unidentified gunmen. What matters at the moment may not be who did it, but the simple fact that no one knows. Already the Iranian state media are drawing links to last week's assassination of the physicist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, and the overall impression is that another layer of instability has been placed on the political situation.

And that (so far) is your reality check for today.

Oh, except for this. It is three weeks to 22 Bahman (11 February).

Today on EA (18 January 2010)

Iran: There's a lot going on in and about Iran today - the trials are continuing; the Regime's propaganda machine trundles on too! All the news, including links to our own stories and other news media, can be found on our live weblog.

In the light of the Ashura demonstrators' trial starting this morning, and as they are charged with "Mohareb" (offending God and the prophet), Edward Yeranian assesses how this may hurt the regime.

We’ve got the video of the CNN interview in which Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi lays out, in the guise of reporting and analysis, the strategy. (Apologies to those of you in the US whom CNN have blocked from seeing the video; the alternative, as laid out by our readers, is to download the video from CNN’s Amanpour website and play it back using QuickTime.)

Afghanistan: We have an evaluation from Juan Cole on this morning's Taliban bomb attack in Kabul, which reportedly killed five and injured eight people. A video of the Esanech (Press TV) report on the attack can be viewed here.

Haiti: EA's Josh Shahyrar has been producing an almost constant humanitarian liveblog since the Haiti earthquake disaster last Tuesday - read his latest posts (17-18 January) here.

Israel: EA's Ali Yenidunya reports on the "strategic" relationship between Israel and Turkey, following Sunday's 3.5 hour meeting in Ankara between Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. An Israeli official said the meeting was conducted "in a very friendly atmosphere".

Palestine: After Israel's Foreign Minister said on Sunday that it would make no further "gestures" towards the Palestinians, Palestinian Authority Leader Mahmoud Abbas has called on Washington to "Draw Red Lines".

The Latest from Iran (18 January): Firewall

2205 GMT: And Here's Another One. Looks like the campaign against Hashemi Rafsanjani hasn't stopped. Someone in the regime has ensured that he will not be leading the ceremony at Imam Khomeini's memorial on 11 Bahman (1 February), the start of celebrations of Iran's Islamic Revolution.

2200 GMT: Political Teasers. While I've been out, EA readers have been sending in a series of interesting stories on the manoeuvres inside the establishment --- we'll have the best of them, with an analysis, to start Tuesday morning. Meanwhile....

Ayande News continues its campaign against former 1st Vice President and Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashi. The newspaper features the claim that several Rahim-Mashai relatives have been appointed to the board of the state automobile company Saipa, taking a controlling interest.

Rahim-Mashai's son, Reza, has become managing director of Saipa's investment branch while his nephew is now the company's head of business development.

NEW Iran Analysis: How “Mohareb” Death Sentences May Hurt Regime
Latest Iran Video: Marandi on CNN on Detainee Abuses “Mortazavi to Blame” (17 January)
Iran: The Ali-Mohammadi Case “A Political Assassination”
Iran: The Ali-Mohammadi Funeral “The Stolen Coffin”
UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Parts 3-5)
Latest from Iran (17 January): Setting Aside Diversions

2150 GMT: More on the assassination of prosecutor Vali Haji Gholizadeh, shot dead in front of his home in Khoy City in Iran's West Azerbaijan province, bordering Turkey and Iraq. A police official says, "A special unit has been formed to identify those behind this assassination."

1935 GMT: Another 5-Point Plan (cont.). Radio Zaamaneh has published an English-language summary of the 5-point plan presented by 34 Iranian women (see 1615 GMT). The signatories, call for an “annulment of all discriminatory and anti-women laws, recognition of women’s right to their body and mind, ending violence against women and prosecution of all perpetrators of the crimes committed in the past thirty years” as part of a resolution of the current crisis. They also support "freedom of thought, speech and assembly", call for an end to torture and the death penalty, and demand “the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners”.

The 34 women put their 5 points within the framework of the Islamic Republic, "not changing the president or limiting the power of the leadership; but rather the realization of fundamental and structural changes”.

1920 GMT: Vali Haji Gholizadeh, the prosecutor of Khoy, a town in western Azerbaijan in northwestern Iran, has been killed by a gunshot.

1653 GMT: I'll be away for a few hours for academic and media work, returning about 2100 GMT for an evening update.

1650 GMT: Norooz is reporting that the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, which was occupied by pro-Government groups who closed the offices of Ayatollah Dastgheib, has reopened.

1615 GMT: Another 5-Point Plan. Responding to and interacting with Mir Hossein Mousavi's 5-point proposal of 1 January, 34 Iranian women have published their own 5-point manifesto for resolution of the political crisis.

1440 GMT: Demonstrations and Trials. One reliable Iranian activist is updating on today's "mohareb" trial of five accused, while another is reporting that 100s of family members of detainees have gathered outside the Tehran Prosecutor General's office.

1145 GMT: Poking at "Foreign Intervention", Chapter 2 (see 0940 GMT). Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar has declared the Islamic Republic will have its revenge on "foreign elements" (and, yes, he means you, Israel) over the assassination of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.

1130 GMT: The "Mohareb" Trials. Iranian Students News Agency is reporting that five protesters, detained on Ashura (27 December), have gone on trial, accused of "mohareb" (war against God), a charge that could carry the death sentence. The Islamic Republic News Agency has said the five are members of the People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran (PMOI).

See our related analysis, "How 'Mohareb' Death Sentences May Hurt Regime".

0940 GMT: Mottaki to Britain "We Will Decide If We Like You". Today's poke at "foreign intervention" comes from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who says: "Iran has carried out a thorough study on its relations with Britain in different fields particularly over the past six months. There are 10-12 working fields between Iran and the UK. We are currently reviewing each area."

No word yet of British panic over the statement.

0800 GMT: The Regime and Mohareb. We've posted a report by Edward Yeranian of Voice of America which points to risks for the regime in threatening death sentences for protesters because they are "mohareb" (warriors against God).

0700 GMT: More on Target Mortazavi. Press TV's website is headlining the letter by 55 members of Parliament to President Ahmadinejad and the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, "demanding clarification" on the Kahrizak prison enquiry and the case of Saeed Mortazavi.
0650 GMT: And If You're Really Into Battles. On the Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani front, Hojetolelam Saghaye Biriaa, an advisor to Ahmadinejad, used a speech to criticise the Green Movement and then attacked the former President, "The Leader’s approach and beliefs are completely different to those of Hashemi Rafsanjani, exactly like Imam Khomeini, whose understanding and beliefs were different to the approach and beliefs of Ayatollah Montazeri."

0640 GMT: Motahhari v. The Government (Round 45). Just to highlight another running story, the "challenge within" from member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ali Motahhari, here are the weekend's headlines:

Motahhari directly criticised Ahmadinejad, accusing him as being one of the principle causes of the post-election crisis and saying he has to apologize to people for his wrong actions. Ahmadinejad advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai responded to a group of journalists: “Firstly, what Motahhari is saying is cheap and baseless and, secondly, we are in the processes of filing a complain against him."

Back came Motahhari, declaring that Mashai should not interfere in and talk about issues which are beyond his "brain capacity" and that he should continue working on his ridiculous plan of Iran-Israel friendship. Then Motahhari returned to Ahmadinejad: the President is like "the person who has caused a big and tragic (car) accident but he has escaped from the scene and we have to try and penalise and punish the person who has the most responsibility".



0600 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports concerns over the deteriorating health of Ebrahim Yazdi, the former Foreign Minister and leader of the Freedom Movement of Iran, who has been detained since Ashura (27 December). The 79-year-old Yazdi was also held just after the June election but, on that occasion, was soon released.

0555 GMT: Cyber-War Update: Mahmoud Silenced. President Ahmadinejad's blog is still off-line, weeks after the website was attacked.

0540 GMT: The lead news this morning continues to be the regime's effort at legitimacy through the investigation of the detainee abuses at Kahrizak Prison. A couple of months ago, the speculation was that former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi would be the fall guy, facing a trial and jail for his supposed lead role in the scandal of beatings and deaths of prisoners. That was deflected by Mortazavi's appointment as an aide to President Ahmadinejad, but now it appears that he is the firewall against challenges to others in the Government and regime, including the Supreme Leader.

We've got the video of the CNN interview in which Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi lays out, in the guise of reporting and analysis, the strategy. (Apologies to those of you in the US whom CNN have blocked from seeing the video; the alternative, as laid out by our readers, is to download the video from CNN's Amanpour website and play it back on QuickTime.)

Elsewhere, Agence France Presse picks up on the opening provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting debates, in which some reformists have made telling challenges to the regime. While we have highlighted the remarks of Dr Javad Etaat, posting the video and translation of his contribution, AFP notes the exchange between reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian and "hard-line" editor of Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari.

Latest Afghanistan Video: Today's Attack in Kabul (18 January)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF89-T1Ulm0[/youtube]

Afghanistan Bombing: Taliban’s “Boldest & Most Ambitious Assault”