Sunday
Jul122009
Iran Opposition Alert: Friday is the Day?
Sunday, July 12, 2009 at 23:59
The Latest from Iran (16 July): Waiting for Rafsanjani’s Prayers
NEW Iran: How Friday’s Prayers Might Develop
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UPDATE 14 July, 0605 GMT: Latest on plans for the march to Friday prayers. The newssite Sharaf says it is probable that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will participate, but spokesmen for both men say decisions will be announced in forthcoming days through “official channels”.
UPDATE 13 July, 0845 GMT: How serious could this challenge be? Rumours are being spread, possibly by pro-Ahmadinejad sources, that this Friday's prayers will be Rafsanjani's last. Rafsanjani's son has denied this, and Ali Asghari, the repesentative of the Expediency Council in Parliament, has reaffirmed that Rafsanjani remains a prayer leader in Tehran.
UPDATE: A reader offers the following clarification and comment, "On the Mousavi Facebook it says, "Until now there is no confirmed report of the presence of Mousavi, Khatami and [Presidential candidate Mehdi] Karroubi in the prayers". I also wished that you had given more credit to Karroubi in your analysis. I think that Karroubi was very active and organized in supporting the protesters, organizing ways for families of the protesters to get in touch with the arrested and taking personally taking on the regime regarding the state of the arrested people."
We began today's updates by noting, "For the second day in a row, there were no significant open demonstrations, and statements were limited," and wondering when the opposition would make its next big move.
It's come. Four hours ago, on his Facebook page, Mir Hossein Mousavi declared, part in English, part in Farsi:
"ANOTHER BIG EVENT IS GOING TO COME....
"Venue on 26th Tir (July 17th)"
"Rafsanjani to address the people for Friday's prayers at Tehran University"
"Arise, Green Wave!"
"The day we were awaiting is finally going to come"
"With the presence of Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi"
So the perfect storm of the opposition from "without", the public challenge symbolised by the leadership of the Presidential candidate Mousavi, and the opposition from "within", the private manoeuvring of former President Rafsanjani, may be imminent. Rafsanjani, having refused to lead prayers in recent weeks and limited his pulbic appearances, re-emerges dramatically on Friday, and a vast crowd of demonstrators marches to the University of Tehran to welcome and applaud him. It turns the regime's public displays --- an ayatollah, even the Supreme Leader, setting out the appropriate line to the acclaim of followers --- against it.
This plan also has the clever beauty of complicating the regime's response. Does it dare tell Rafsanjani that he cannot speak on Friday? Do security forces dare block marchers who, after all, are only trying to worship as "good" Muslims?
This, in short, could be the largest mass gathering since 15 June, complete with the presence of Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and Khatami. Start counting dowy the days....
(hat tip to readers who made this analysis possible)
NEW Iran: How Friday’s Prayers Might Develop
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
UPDATE 14 July, 0605 GMT: Latest on plans for the march to Friday prayers. The newssite Sharaf says it is probable that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will participate, but spokesmen for both men say decisions will be announced in forthcoming days through “official channels”.UPDATE 13 July, 0845 GMT: How serious could this challenge be? Rumours are being spread, possibly by pro-Ahmadinejad sources, that this Friday's prayers will be Rafsanjani's last. Rafsanjani's son has denied this, and Ali Asghari, the repesentative of the Expediency Council in Parliament, has reaffirmed that Rafsanjani remains a prayer leader in Tehran.
UPDATE: A reader offers the following clarification and comment, "On the Mousavi Facebook it says, "Until now there is no confirmed report of the presence of Mousavi, Khatami and [Presidential candidate Mehdi] Karroubi in the prayers". I also wished that you had given more credit to Karroubi in your analysis. I think that Karroubi was very active and organized in supporting the protesters, organizing ways for families of the protesters to get in touch with the arrested and taking personally taking on the regime regarding the state of the arrested people."
We began today's updates by noting, "For the second day in a row, there were no significant open demonstrations, and statements were limited," and wondering when the opposition would make its next big move.
It's come. Four hours ago, on his Facebook page, Mir Hossein Mousavi declared, part in English, part in Farsi:
"ANOTHER BIG EVENT IS GOING TO COME....
"Venue on 26th Tir (July 17th)"
"Rafsanjani to address the people for Friday's prayers at Tehran University"
"Arise, Green Wave!"
"The day we were awaiting is finally going to come"
"With the presence of Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi"
So the perfect storm of the opposition from "without", the public challenge symbolised by the leadership of the Presidential candidate Mousavi, and the opposition from "within", the private manoeuvring of former President Rafsanjani, may be imminent. Rafsanjani, having refused to lead prayers in recent weeks and limited his pulbic appearances, re-emerges dramatically on Friday, and a vast crowd of demonstrators marches to the University of Tehran to welcome and applaud him. It turns the regime's public displays --- an ayatollah, even the Supreme Leader, setting out the appropriate line to the acclaim of followers --- against it.
This plan also has the clever beauty of complicating the regime's response. Does it dare tell Rafsanjani that he cannot speak on Friday? Do security forces dare block marchers who, after all, are only trying to worship as "good" Muslims?
This, in short, could be the largest mass gathering since 15 June, complete with the presence of Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and Khatami. Start counting dowy the days....
(hat tip to readers who made this analysis possible)
Reader Comments (18)
Thank you for this analysis dear Scott. I really donT know what to think about this move. Of course It could be a strategic masterpiece of the opposition. who knows?!But I'm suspicious, because I really really dislike Rafsanjani. I consider him a cold opportunist with a generally bad image among the people.
If Rafsanjani and people like Mousavi, Khatami or hopefully Karoubi really succeed to mobilize the people for this event and organize a big rally, that will be awesome and kudos to them. But I donT know what to expect from Rafsanjani's speech, since he has his own (material) interests inside the regime. And after all its the fridays prayers and I donT believe that he is going to be too harsh with the system. He'll maybe critisize Ahmadinejad and some Basijis, but I donT think he is going to do or say something significant. I donT trust this guy and I strongly believe that if iranians want to be free, they shouldnT count on people like Rafsanjani, who showed in 30 years of the islamic regime that he only cares for himself. He also has no support among the poorer sections of the people, who are really important for the success of the green freedom movement.
Damn, I really soung negative. Sorry for that. DonT get me wrong. I know how important he is for the current situation. And its a good thing that he is on the "good" side until now. But people shouldnT put their hopes in him to be the saviour of the green movement. All in all I'm really excited about friday. Who knows, maybe some miracle happens and his speech will be the turning point. I know I sound confused, but I'm not an expert and kinda unsure about whats going to happen in the future, and which political figures the people should really put their hopes in and follow in the next days, weeks and months.
Jashar
By the way, doesnT that flyer sound a bit unprofessional? I mean come on..."the day we were awaiting is finally going to come" sound a bit weird to me. Its not like the hidden Imam finally arrived and is going to hold a speech! ;-)
I doubt that the Facebook campaign page of Mousavi has a clue what Rafsanjani is going to say. I'm still not 100% sure if that whole thing is even going to take place.
Lets hope for the best! Hopefully the leaders of the green movement wonT disappoint the people.
We support any effort to change the constitution to reflect the will of the people. A true democracy in Iran. A constitution with checks and balances. A democratically elected government by and for the people.
We must hope and pray, that these old men, understand that they have only their good name and their children to leave behind when they pass away from this world.
They can never take their money or their power. All they leave behind, is their legacy. Let us hope and pray, that, all humans.... deep inside, have honor, wisdom, and goodness.
http://iran115.org
Rafsanjani is and has been a supporter of Musavi. Rafsanjani will support Musavi. Musavi is not as dumb as Jashar thinks. These people all have revolutionary credentials. If I were a betting man, I would bet Musavi is a little smarter than Jashar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_x_rQy9srM
What is he saying about the Friday Prayers? This man knows what he is talking about(i think), but I have no idea what he is saying. I think is important!
[...] to speak over the friday prayers, with Mousavi and Khatami present: Iran Opposition Alert: Friday is the Day? | Enduring America... Read More Talk of moving Iran's holy council from Qom in Iran to Najaf in Iraq: Twitblogs | [...]
It is a summary for the green freedom movement and he is answering questions freedom fighters are asking. He says a lot but the summary is in general as follows:
1. Wait until Musavi says he is going to Friday prayers before deciding if you want to attend. He says you can not be certain of Rafsanjani is going to help us or hurt us. So, he says wait and see if Musavi attends.
2. They are also talking about planting green flags and ribbons in the hills. And they say yes this is good because it will give the Basij some excersize and encourage backpacking and excersize for the troops when they go up to take them down. He talks about how it is important to do in the day so that we can take pictures and show them to the world.
3. He also talks about the 10:00pm to 10:30pm chanting and talks about the use of megaphones and other PA systems. He says these are good between the coordinated times.
4. They are also preparing work strikes but they say it is to early to start this, but it will be time fairly soon.
5. He also talks about not paying the telephone and power bills, and people should wait until things are a little further down the road when things are in chaos before starting this practice.
6. He is also relating to the fact the Mojtaba, son of Supreme Leader is behind this coup and that we have to show we do not support this coup of the system.
7. He talks about Musavi being the properly chosen President/leader of Iran and this is what we are fighting for.
8. He also talks about our plan to take out all computer networks and systems belonging to the fascists.
Sorry for the errors but I had to type fast.
@ Marc.
My statement has nothing to do with Mousavi being smart or dumb. I just pointed out that the masses of people shouldnT only rely on someone opportunist like Rafsanjani. He may be useful and influential but he never will be the saviour of the iranian people. For now I support everyone who backs the opposition. So right now I'm on Rafsanjani's side, but he will never be the savior of the iranian people. At least thats what I believe, but I hope he proves me wrong! ;-)
Btw, where did you read that Rafsanjani has always been a "supporter" of Mousavi? Mousavi was not a significant politician in the last 20 years.
Who is Mohsen Sazegara? Read bio.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohsen_Sazegara
Rafsanjani is certainly an essential part of the system as is Khatami and Mousavi. The reform movements failures during Khatami presidency were partly due to the lack of a credible and wide alliance on their part with other parties. It is a great move to have him squarely in the reform camp. Rafsanjani may have his weaknesses and bad points and we all know them too clearly, however he is also one of the few politicians that has always leaned on the side of positive during dark times of the republic. In these dark days where we have the North Korea (Mojtaba) / Venezuela (Ahmadinejad) alliance looking to turn Iran into a toilet on the one side, we can not stop to argue semantics. Rafsanjani should be welcomed with open arms by the people to the reform movement.
If the event is pulled off with 100000 protesters marching down for Friday pray and photo shots of Rafsnajani leading Friday prey with Mousavi and Karoubi sitting next to each other and Khatami in attendance amongst the people.... If Zahra Rahnavard is seen in prayers with 30000 to 40000 Iranian women , then really the reform movement has turned the argument around. They have seperated the government and stripped them of their religious credentials.
This in itself will be a coupe and an insult to Khamenei
@ whereismyvote
You made some relevant points. Rafsanjani should be welcomed IF he really wants to join THE PEOPLE. That would be a novelty as he never really was with the people. But who knows, maybe he came to his senses after so many years. ;-)
@ Jamshid
Thanks for the Sazegara-Summary. Though whereismyvote is not wrong with what he he said above, I agree with "1. Wait until Musavi says he is going to Friday prayers before deciding if you want to attend. He says you can not be certain of Rafsanjani is going to help us or hurt us. So, he says wait and see if Musavi attends."
I'm with Sazegara on this!
We all seem to be in agreement that if and a big one for now, Mousavi and the green camp agrees to attend and participate in the Friday prey and if Rafsanjani is slated to conduct the pray session then it is important for all people who want reform to head out and attend the session. To turn a government institution into a vehicle of protest is a great victory.
I somehow however think it will not happen. It would be a huge mistake on the part of Khamanei / Ahmadinejad to allow this event to happen. I think Mousavi will not attend and that Rafsanjani will either attend and give a total lame sermon, or last minute ditch plans and have someone else attend. Lets wait and see... The timing for it is however perfect.
Perhaps... what is going to happen has already happened.
I can not imagine that state run tv would have made the announcement without:
A. Factions reaching a compermise.
B. Changes already made behind the sceens.
C. Things are out of control?
My personal view is everybody should turn out no matter what.
As many as possible.
Millions!
And, if he gives "lame speech", people will respond properly.
I'm afraid you are getting carried away Scott. Dont expect Rafsanjani to say much. I predict nothing will happen on friday.
[...] 7/13/2009 11:34 - Some Updates on Friday from Enduring America [...]
Rafsanji is going to act as a mediator between the protestors and the system. He is the most insider of all ;) he is there to end the unrest not to support either sides of it. He probably will criticize both sides a bit and then talk of the Chinese issue and the German court incident setting aside many of the things people would like or expect to hear! If he wanted to take stern positions against the system or to fully support Mousavi, he would have done it earlier.
I'm hopeful, but also prepared if there is a sign of betrayal by Hashemi. If he does it, I am going to stand up and turn my back to him and walk away peacefully.
[...] 7/13/2009 11:34PM - Some Updates on Friday from Enduring America [...]