Sunday
Jul122009
The Latest on Iran (12 July): When Is Normal Not Normal?
Sunday, July 12, 2009 at 22:25
The Latest from Iran (13 July): Challenge Renewed
Iran Opposition Alert: Friday is the Day?
Iran Idiocy of the Day: Bushmen Claim Credit for “Regime Change”
Iran: Tehran's Immediate Response to the G8 Summit
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2210 GMT: Press TV's website is featuring the six-point programme of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei for a compromise resolution to post-election conflict (see 1510 GMT). It's one of a number of signs, which we'll discuss tomorrow, that the regime may be willing to make some concessions (albeit limited ones) to ease opposition.
2123 GMT: We have posted in a separate entry what we think may be an analysis of a major development in opposition strategy, the combination of Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership of Friday prayers in Tehran with a large march including Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.
2120 GMT: Reliable websites are now agreeing that Sohrab Arabi was killed by Basiji gunfire on 15 June in Azadi Square.
1800 GMT: Some confusion over the death of Sohrab Arabi (pictured), who was reported to have died in detention in Evin Prison. According to a website, a family member has said that Arabi was among those killed in Azadi Square on 15 June, the day of the largest post-election demonstrations, when Basiji opened fire.
The report continues that Arabi's mother, unaware of her son's death, had prepared the bail money to release him from detention. She spent days outside Evin Prison, holding Sohrab's picture and asking if anyone had seen him.
1700 GMT: We've posted a separate blog entry on a disturbing, and frankly ludicrous, attempt by a Bush Administration official to claim credit, in the name of Dubya, for Iranian "regime change".
1540 GMT: Families of detainees have gathered once more in front of Evin Prison.
1522 GMT: Political Rumour of the Day. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, having declined in recent weeks to lead weekly prayers in Tehran, will be making the address this Friday.
1520 GMT: Yet, even as the dispute over detentions succeeds questions over the elections as the touchstone challenge to the regime, the Government presses ahead. Mohsen Hajjarian, the son of detained politician Saeed Hajjarian, has been arrested.
1510 GMT: As we thought, the issues of political activism and detentions are emerging as the key challenges to the regime. Now Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has written an open letter. While separating legitimate protest from that spurred by foreign influence, Rezaei has emphasized the "duties of state institutions to establish in law the rights of people": "The Islamic Republic without religious freedom and democracy can not exist."
Meanwhile, Etamade Melli has maintained its pressure by publishing a summary of Mehdi Karroubi's meetings last week with the families of detainees.
1500 GMT: A day after he received Mehdi Karroubi's letter about detainees, Ayatollah Shahroudi, the head of the Iranian judiciary, has been addressed by the Iranian Association of Journalists. The association has asked Shahroudi to observe the Iranian Constitution with respect to detentions, confession, and torture. Human rights organisation have claimed that Iran leads the world in the detention of journalists.
1220 GMT: In an interview with Rooz, legal scholar Mohammad Seifzadeh and lawmaker Dariush Ghanbari announced that confessions extracted in prison lack legal validity and only serve political purposes. On the contrary of what is written and broadcasted by pro-government media organisations, Seifzadeh accused officials of defaming detainees.
1200 GMT: Another young martyr? Twitter users iranriggedelect and iranbaan report on 19 year old Sohrab Arabi, who they say died in Evin prison despite being due for release on Tuesday. Two reports on Rooz (article 1: Persian / English translation; article 2: Persian / English translation) suggest that he was involved in post-election protests, and remained in Evin even after his mother posted bail. Iranbaan also links to a video which she says shows his mother showing his picture to released detainees outside Evin in the hope that they will recognise him.
1145 GMT: CNN reports that, "A top Iranian general said government troops are "ready to sacrifice our lives" rather than back down in the face of protests over June's disputed presidential election." [link via iranrevolution]
0710 GMT: The First Post-election "Reform"? Press TV's website reports that the Expediency Council has ruled that, in future, a member of the President's Cabinet cannot also serve on the Guardian Council. Currently, Justice Minister Gholamhossein Elham, who also serves as President Ahmadinejad's primary spokesman, and Ebrahim Azizi, deputy head of the presidential office for human resources, are also on the Guardian Council.
0655 GMT: An important sign that "uneasy settling" (0615 GMT) does not mean that the situation has been resolved. A reader has confirmed, from Iranian media, yesterday's report of a statement that much of Tehran is a "crisis zone". The claim of police commander Ahmadi-Moghaddam was made in Aftab News.
Blame for the crisis was placed on people using computer software, encouraged by the BBC.
0650 GMT: Josh Shahryar's latest "Green Brief" claims, "Vast weekly protests and the heavy presence of Basiji’s have had a negative impact on Iranian bazaars; they are finding it harder and harder to stay open. As a result, commerce is slowly coming to a standstill."
0615 GMT: On the surface, there is an uneasy settling of the political situation in Iran. For the second day in a row, there were no significant open demonstrations, and statements were limited, with the most significant challenge coming in Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, calling for the release of detainees (see yesterday's updates). Ayatollah Montazeri also issued a fatwa condemning the Government as "un-Islamic" for its support of violence against demonstrations. Rooz Online offers a summary (in Farsi) of the clerical debate over the political and security issues.
In short, the impression was that both sides were catching their breath before next moves. This, however, should not be mistaken for "calm". As long as the Iranian Government continues to hold hundreds of detainees without charge, including leading politicians and activists, then there will be an immediate cause for protest that could always be the platform for wider criticism of the system. On Saturday, for example, the women’s wing of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s Participation Front wrote an open letter, saying that Iranian mothers were awaiting the release of their loved ones with teary eyes and aching hearts.
That is why a lot of Internet discussion yesterday was about the alleged mistreatment of detainees and poor conditions in Evin Prison. And that is why there has been so much attention to the Basiji and the Revolutionary Guard. We were caught up in the debate over the authenticity of the leaked audio tape of Revolutionary Guard discussions on how to handle protest (although we are still unsure whether the tape is from 1999 or 2009), and much attention was paid to an article in The Wall Street Journal giving inside detail on members of the Basiji, closing with the puzzlement of one Basij over why his fiancee had left him.
There is also discussion on a possible "cyber-attack" on Twitter, with the key topic "#iranelection" being flooded with spam to obscure the latest posts on political, clerical, and security developments.
Iran Opposition Alert: Friday is the Day?
Iran Idiocy of the Day: Bushmen Claim Credit for “Regime Change”
Iran: Tehran's Immediate Response to the G8 Summit
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
2210 GMT: Press TV's website is featuring the six-point programme of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei for a compromise resolution to post-election conflict (see 1510 GMT). It's one of a number of signs, which we'll discuss tomorrow, that the regime may be willing to make some concessions (albeit limited ones) to ease opposition.2123 GMT: We have posted in a separate entry what we think may be an analysis of a major development in opposition strategy, the combination of Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership of Friday prayers in Tehran with a large march including Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.
2120 GMT: Reliable websites are now agreeing that Sohrab Arabi was killed by Basiji gunfire on 15 June in Azadi Square.
1800 GMT: Some confusion over the death of Sohrab Arabi (pictured), who was reported to have died in detention in Evin Prison. According to a website, a family member has said that Arabi was among those killed in Azadi Square on 15 June, the day of the largest post-election demonstrations, when Basiji opened fire.
The report continues that Arabi's mother, unaware of her son's death, had prepared the bail money to release him from detention. She spent days outside Evin Prison, holding Sohrab's picture and asking if anyone had seen him.
1700 GMT: We've posted a separate blog entry on a disturbing, and frankly ludicrous, attempt by a Bush Administration official to claim credit, in the name of Dubya, for Iranian "regime change".
1540 GMT: Families of detainees have gathered once more in front of Evin Prison.
1522 GMT: Political Rumour of the Day. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, having declined in recent weeks to lead weekly prayers in Tehran, will be making the address this Friday.
1520 GMT: Yet, even as the dispute over detentions succeeds questions over the elections as the touchstone challenge to the regime, the Government presses ahead. Mohsen Hajjarian, the son of detained politician Saeed Hajjarian, has been arrested.
1510 GMT: As we thought, the issues of political activism and detentions are emerging as the key challenges to the regime. Now Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has written an open letter. While separating legitimate protest from that spurred by foreign influence, Rezaei has emphasized the "duties of state institutions to establish in law the rights of people": "The Islamic Republic without religious freedom and democracy can not exist."
Meanwhile, Etamade Melli has maintained its pressure by publishing a summary of Mehdi Karroubi's meetings last week with the families of detainees.
1500 GMT: A day after he received Mehdi Karroubi's letter about detainees, Ayatollah Shahroudi, the head of the Iranian judiciary, has been addressed by the Iranian Association of Journalists. The association has asked Shahroudi to observe the Iranian Constitution with respect to detentions, confession, and torture. Human rights organisation have claimed that Iran leads the world in the detention of journalists.
1220 GMT: In an interview with Rooz, legal scholar Mohammad Seifzadeh and lawmaker Dariush Ghanbari announced that confessions extracted in prison lack legal validity and only serve political purposes. On the contrary of what is written and broadcasted by pro-government media organisations, Seifzadeh accused officials of defaming detainees.
Moreover, lawmaker Dariush Ghanbari, who is also the spokesperson for the Line of the Imam faction in the Majlis and Emad Hosseini, who is also member of the same faction claimed that the government was "imposing certain views on society." Rooz reports that many members of the judiciary ignored the significance of the situation when asked whether rights of detainees were violated.
1200 GMT: Another young martyr? Twitter users iranriggedelect and iranbaan report on 19 year old Sohrab Arabi, who they say died in Evin prison despite being due for release on Tuesday. Two reports on Rooz (article 1: Persian / English translation; article 2: Persian / English translation) suggest that he was involved in post-election protests, and remained in Evin even after his mother posted bail. Iranbaan also links to a video which she says shows his mother showing his picture to released detainees outside Evin in the hope that they will recognise him.
1145 GMT: CNN reports that, "A top Iranian general said government troops are "ready to sacrifice our lives" rather than back down in the face of protests over June's disputed presidential election." [link via iranrevolution]
0710 GMT: The First Post-election "Reform"? Press TV's website reports that the Expediency Council has ruled that, in future, a member of the President's Cabinet cannot also serve on the Guardian Council. Currently, Justice Minister Gholamhossein Elham, who also serves as President Ahmadinejad's primary spokesman, and Ebrahim Azizi, deputy head of the presidential office for human resources, are also on the Guardian Council.
0655 GMT: An important sign that "uneasy settling" (0615 GMT) does not mean that the situation has been resolved. A reader has confirmed, from Iranian media, yesterday's report of a statement that much of Tehran is a "crisis zone". The claim of police commander Ahmadi-Moghaddam was made in Aftab News.
Blame for the crisis was placed on people using computer software, encouraged by the BBC.
0650 GMT: Josh Shahryar's latest "Green Brief" claims, "Vast weekly protests and the heavy presence of Basiji’s have had a negative impact on Iranian bazaars; they are finding it harder and harder to stay open. As a result, commerce is slowly coming to a standstill."
0615 GMT: On the surface, there is an uneasy settling of the political situation in Iran. For the second day in a row, there were no significant open demonstrations, and statements were limited, with the most significant challenge coming in Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, calling for the release of detainees (see yesterday's updates). Ayatollah Montazeri also issued a fatwa condemning the Government as "un-Islamic" for its support of violence against demonstrations. Rooz Online offers a summary (in Farsi) of the clerical debate over the political and security issues.
In short, the impression was that both sides were catching their breath before next moves. This, however, should not be mistaken for "calm". As long as the Iranian Government continues to hold hundreds of detainees without charge, including leading politicians and activists, then there will be an immediate cause for protest that could always be the platform for wider criticism of the system. On Saturday, for example, the women’s wing of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s Participation Front wrote an open letter, saying that Iranian mothers were awaiting the release of their loved ones with teary eyes and aching hearts.
That is why a lot of Internet discussion yesterday was about the alleged mistreatment of detainees and poor conditions in Evin Prison. And that is why there has been so much attention to the Basiji and the Revolutionary Guard. We were caught up in the debate over the authenticity of the leaked audio tape of Revolutionary Guard discussions on how to handle protest (although we are still unsure whether the tape is from 1999 or 2009), and much attention was paid to an article in The Wall Street Journal giving inside detail on members of the Basiji, closing with the puzzlement of one Basij over why his fiancee had left him.
There is also discussion on a possible "cyber-attack" on Twitter, with the key topic "#iranelection" being flooded with spam to obscure the latest posts on political, clerical, and security developments.
tagged Aftab News, Ahmadi-Moghaddam, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, BBC, Basiji, Dariuhsh Ghanbari, Ebrahim Azizi, Etemade Melli, Gholamhossein Elham, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iranian Association of Journalists, Josh Shahryar, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad Seifzadeh, Mohsen Hajjarian, Mohsen Rezaei, Neda, Neda Soltan, Rooz, Saeed Hajjarian, Sohrab Arabi, Twitter, Wall Street Journal in Middle East & Iran
Aftab News, Ahmadi-Moghaddam, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, BBC, Basiji, Dariuhsh Ghanbari, Ebrahim Azizi, Etemade Melli, Gholamhossein Elham, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iranian Association of Journalists, Josh Shahryar, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad Seifzadeh, Mohsen Hajjarian, Mohsen Rezaei, Neda, Neda Soltan, Rooz, Saeed Hajjarian, Sohrab Arabi, Twitter, Wall Street Journal in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (9)
Last night I listened to the whole Basiji (not!) audio. I am convinced that it is from just before the previous election.
It seemed to be a 2-3 day gathering between Intelligence Chiefs from all provinces from the revolutionary Guard just before the election (which one I am not sure).
The speaker (I think the boss) said in one place I will call all of you again one week before the end of election campagin and ask for you reports (he kept asking for comprehensive intelligence about all candidates and activists from both sides "right" and "left").
They also discussed tactics on how to control crowd, tricks to use, etc. For example there was a discussion about how in tehran they plant their own agents in the crowd to steer the protests to a particular cross road, where the force is waiting for them.
In one place the speaker recalled the riots in from of tehran university and said that people from all the sorrounding houses kept throwing water, newspapers(for burning) and even stones. I don't remember hearing that during this round of riots, which is why again I think its from the past.
Very interesting. But it takes a lot of time to translate unfortunately, needs a proffessional.
I think the crisis zone comment in the tehran by the police is exaggerated a little. This was my interpretation from it:
He said that 90% of northern half of tehran has probably voted green, so this part of the tehran is the centre of the crisis.
I don't think that it was just the northern tehran by the way, but it is probably true that the protests were probably more intense there.
Dear Scott, you are right. There were no big open protest the last 2 days. As I understand they plan to hold rallys/protest every THURSDAY! At least thats what Mohsen Sazegara said in his daily comment videos on the situation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohsen_Sazegara , http://www.youtube.com/user/adminsazegara). Some may disagree but I think that he is in touch with the green movement in Iran and he gives Ideas and says stuff about strategies of peaceful demonstration. Things that the opposition leaders canT say openly.
There are also a lot of small actions. A group of 100 People or so gather at some square for 5 minutes and shout slogans and disperse when the Basij forces arrive.
But if that sazegara guy really has his connections with the opposition in Iran, the you can be sure that you'll have more significant protest every THURSDAY. Also donT forget the symbolic 40th day of someones dead. When someone dies in Iran, its tradition that after 40 days people gather and commemorate his/her death. I think Neda's will be huge. and we shouldnt forget that a lot of people died. Btw, that strategy was also used by protesters in the movement to topple the Shah in the late 70's. People now arenT calm...they are just waiting for an excuse to go to the streets again.
I agree Jashar. I think mohsen sazegara's role could be significant. So far he has been very good with his daily videos on you tube. He is the only level headed "leader" that I can think of who is in a position to give this movement a meaningful direction.
I just hope he does have a following in Iran.
AM/Jashar,
Thank you so much for excellent comments, which I have only read on return from a day out. I am very grateful for the insight, which points to the possibilities of further demonstrations, even if most media coverage (in my opinion) has moved on.
S.
Hello Scott,
It seems that the "Kadivar Model", is being used to elicit responses from grand ayatollahs. In this case Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani was asked the following questions:
What is the situation of civil servants if the next government lacks legitimacy?
Is it acceptable to resign from government jobs? How does an individual cope with the resulting lack of income?
The Ayatollah's response involved the following 4 points:
1) Lack of integrity and legitimacy of an individual head of government is not to be equated with a lack of legitimacy of the establishment.
2) If the head of government is unqualified to rule due to a lack of integrity and legitimacy you are religiously required to bring about the replacement of the unqualified and dishonest individual by a qualified head of government using non violent means.
3) If you are unable to effect this change, by working as a civil servant you are aiding and abetting the governance of this dishonest head of state and strengthening his rule, you are ritually forbidden to stay in your job. And after resigning you must expose all inadequacies and mismanagement and warn public of all the consequences of this misrule.
4) However, if there is a high probability that by staying in your job you can prevent illegal activities of the aforementioned government, and you can help solve problems of oppressed individuals you are required to stay on your post.
Here is the link:
http://bayatzanjani.net/fa/faq/question-156.html
Mazdak
[...] Crackdown protests mount — The chorus of complaint against the post-election crackdown continues to grow. The Enduring America website reports that defeated presidential candidate Mohsen Rezai, the former Revolutionary Guards commander, has written an open letter emphasising the state’s duty to “establish in law the rights of people”, while the Iranbian Association of Journalists has asked Ayatollah Shahroudi, head of the judiciary, to observe the constitution’s provisions on detentions, confessions and torture. “The Islamic Republic without religious freedom and democracy cannot exist,” they said. In addition, the website reports, Mehdi Karroubi’s newspaper Ettemad-e Melli has published a summary of Karroubi’s meetings in the past week with the families of those detained in the crackdown. Enduring America [...]
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