The Latest on Iran (12 July): When Is Normal Not Normal?

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2210 GMT: Press TV's website is featuring the six-point programme of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei for a compromise resolution to post-election conflict (see 1510 GMT). It's one of a number of signs, which we'll discuss tomorrow, that the regime may be willing to make some concessions (albeit limited ones) to ease opposition.

2123 GMT: We have posted in a separate entry what we think may be an analysis of a major development in opposition  strategy, the combination of Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership of Friday prayers in Tehran with a large march including Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami.

2120 GMT: Reliable websites are now agreeing that Sohrab Arabi was killed by Basiji gunfire on 15 June in Azadi Square.

1800 GMT: Some confusion over the death of Sohrab Arabi (pictured), who was reported to have died in detention in Evin Prison. According to a website, a family member has said that Arabi was among those killed in Azadi Square on 15 June, the day of the largest post-election demonstrations, when Basiji opened fire.

The report continues that Arabi's mother, unaware of her son's death, had prepared the bail money to release him from detention. She spent days outside Evin Prison, holding Sohrab's picture and asking if anyone had seen him.

1700 GMT: We've posted a separate blog entry on a disturbing, and frankly ludicrous, attempt by a Bush Administration official to claim credit, in the name of Dubya, for Iranian "regime change".

1540 GMT: Families of detainees have gathered once more in front of Evin Prison.

1522 GMT: Political Rumour of the Day. Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, having declined in recent weeks to lead weekly prayers in Tehran, will be making the address this Friday.

1520 GMT: Yet, even as the dispute over detentions succeeds questions over the elections as the touchstone challenge to the regime, the Government presses ahead. Mohsen Hajjarian, the son of detained politician Saeed Hajjarian, has been arrested.

1510 GMT: As we thought, the issues of political activism and detentions are emerging as the key challenges to the regime. Now Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has written an open letter. While separating legitimate protest from that spurred by foreign influence, Rezaei has emphasized the "duties of state institutions to establish in law the rights of people": "The Islamic Republic without religious freedom and democracy can not exist."

Meanwhile, Etamade Melli has maintained its pressure by publishing a summary of Mehdi Karroubi's meetings last week with the families of detainees.

1500 GMT: A day after he received Mehdi Karroubi's letter about detainees, Ayatollah Shahroudi, the head of the Iranian judiciary, has been addressed by the Iranian Association of Journalists. The association has asked Shahroudi to observe the Iranian Constitution with respect to detentions, confession, and torture. Human rights organisation have claimed that Iran leads the world in the detention of journalists.

1220 GMT: In an interview with Rooz, legal scholar Mohammad Seifzadeh and lawmaker Dariush Ghanbari announced that confessions extracted in prison lack legal validity and only serve political purposes. On the contrary of what is written and broadcasted by pro-government media organisations, Seifzadeh accused officials of defaming detainees.

Moreover, lawmaker Dariush Ghanbari, who is also the spokesperson for the Line of the Imam faction in the Majlis and Emad Hosseini, who is also member of the same faction claimed that the government was "imposing certain views on society." Rooz reports that many members of the judiciary ignored the significance of the situation when asked whether rights of detainees were violated.

1200 GMT: Another young martyr? Twitter users iranriggedelect and iranbaan report on 19 year old Sohrab Arabi, who they say died in Evin prison despite being due for release on Tuesday. Two reports on Rooz (article 1: Persian / English translation; article 2: Persian / English translation) suggest that he was involved in post-election protests, and remained in Evin even after his mother posted bail. Iranbaan also links to a video which she says shows his mother showing his picture to released detainees outside Evin in the hope that they will recognise him.

1145 GMT: CNN reports that, "A top Iranian general said government troops are "ready to sacrifice our lives" rather than back down in the face of protests over June's disputed presidential election." [link via iranrevolution]

0710 GMT: The First Post-election "Reform"? Press TV's website reports that the Expediency Council has ruled that, in future, a member of the President's Cabinet cannot also serve on the Guardian Council. Currently, Justice Minister Gholamhossein Elham, who also serves as President Ahmadinejad's primary spokesman, and Ebrahim Azizi, deputy head of the presidential office for human resources, are also on the Guardian Council.

0655 GMT: An important sign that "uneasy settling" (0615 GMT) does not mean that the situation has been resolved. A reader has confirmed, from Iranian media, yesterday's report of a statement that much of Tehran is a "crisis zone". The claim of police commander Ahmadi-Moghaddam was made in Aftab News.

Blame for the crisis was placed on people using computer software, encouraged by the BBC.

0650 GMT: Josh Shahryar's latest "Green Brief" claims, "Vast weekly protests and the heavy presence of Basiji’s have had a negative impact on Iranian bazaars; they are finding it harder and harder to stay open. As a result, commerce is slowly coming to a standstill."

0615 GMT: On the surface, there is an uneasy settling of the political situation in Iran. For the second day in a row, there were no significant open demonstrations, and statements were limited, with the most significant challenge coming in Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, calling for the release of detainees (see yesterday's updates). Ayatollah Montazeri also issued a fatwa condemning the Government as "un-Islamic" for its support of violence against demonstrations. Rooz Online offers a summary (in Farsi) of the clerical debate over the political and security issues.

In short, the impression was that both sides were catching their breath before next moves. This, however, should not be mistaken for "calm". As long as the Iranian Government continues to hold hundreds of detainees without charge, including leading politicians and activists, then there will be an immediate cause for protest that could always be the platform for wider criticism of the system. On Saturday, for example, the women’s wing of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s Participation Front wrote an open letter, saying that Iranian mothers were awaiting the release of their loved ones with teary eyes and aching hearts.

That is why a lot of Internet discussion yesterday was about the alleged mistreatment of detainees and poor conditions in Evin Prison. And that is why there has been so much attention to the Basiji and the Revolutionary Guard. We were caught up in the debate over the authenticity of the leaked audio tape of Revolutionary Guard discussions on how to handle protest (although we are still unsure whether the tape is from 1999 or 2009), and much attention was paid to an article in The Wall Street Journal giving inside detail on members of the Basiji, closing with the puzzlement of one Basij over why his fiancee had left him.

There is also discussion on a possible "cyber-attack" on Twitter, with the key topic "#iranelection" being flooded with spam to obscure the latest posts on political, clerical, and security developments.

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1800 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, has been published on a Facebook page of Mohammad Khatami: "All protesting the election results agree with the original system, but its defenders have confiscated the electoral process."

1455 GMT: The mysterious of the "Basiji" audio tape (0825 and 1130 GMT): A very helpful reader has listened to four hours of the tapes and offers the following: "Each [of the four] segments is about an hour and on different aspect of protests and how to understand and neutralize it. The audio seems to be from the Revolutionary Guard who criticize the Basiji for ineffectiveness and lack of training. The 4th segment in the audio is creepy and openly talks about why ppeople are talking about a coup, psychological operations, ideology, etc."

Another reader adds, "This seems leaked audio from immediately after 1999 raids [on the 18 Tir] demonstrations. Still, given ranking figures supposedly in recordings, worth examining." The first reader, however, points us to a document, "Mechanisms for Suppression of Mobilization", which seems to correspond to aspect of the audio discussion.

(Again, our gratitude to both sources for assistance above and beyond the call of duty.)

1445 GMT: Citing a "security source", Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) says that President Ahmadinejad's national broadcast on Tuesday was hindered by blackouts, caused by deliberate power surges from protestors' use of electrical appliances.

1430 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, has issued another fatwa condemning the violence used against protestors. Any Government sanctioning such violence is "un-Islamic".

1230 GMT: Al Arabiya is reporting that Tehran's police chief has declared half of the city a "crisis zone".

1130 GMT: Correction. Our latest information is that the leaked audio of Basiji conversation (0825 GMT) is analysis and training in security methods.

1025 GMT: Election Past, Engagement Present. In the first clear sign that the post-election conflict is pushing the regime towards discussions with the "West" on Iran's nuclear programme and other matters of concern, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has told a news conference that Iran will present a package of "political, security, and international issues" for consideration: ""The package can be a good basis for talks with the West. The package will contain Iran's stances on political, security and international issues."

0935 GMT: The Silence is Broken. Mehdi Karroubi has issued a strong statement this morning, calling on the head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Shahroudi, to release detained protesters: "Constitutionalism and sovereignty of the people are opposed to tyranny."

0825 GMT: A lot of chatter this morning about a leaked audio, allegedly of Basiji discussing plans to raid university dormitories.

0800 GMT: More on the arrest of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh (see yesterday's updates). The important link: Tajbakhsh was one of four US citizens detained in 2007 by the Iranian Government, the most prominent of whom was Haleh Esfiandiari. He was released after four months.

So the Iranian regime is still pursuing --- for public consumption, from their suspicions, or both --- the idea of a "velvet revolution" backed by US groups and possibly the American government.

0715 GMT: A reader tips us off to a development which we missed yesterday: according to the German news service Deutsche Welle, the 27-nation European Union has suspended all visas or visa extensions for Iranian diplomats and their families.

0630 GMT: A very quiet start to the day, with no breaking news.

The question we raised yesterday, "What next?", after the 18 Tir protests on Thursday, still hangs in the air. The only visible protests were small gatherings of the families of detainees in several locations in Tehran. Not a public word from figures such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani maintaining a mysterious silence. And the regime took a breather as well: beyond Ayatollah Kashani's relatively low-key address at Tehran prayers, the headline pronouncement was "a 50,000-strong special constable-like force called 'honorary police officers' to provide assistance to police support units".

There was one statement of note. Ayatollah Hashim Hashim-Zadeh Hareesi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, declared that people had started to distrust the system because of the election process. The government needed to restore people’s trust to prevent more serious problems. In itself, that statement could complement, rather than challenge, Ayatollah Kashani's request to the Iranian Parliament to review the electoral law and the Guardian Council's promise of a report on the election.

Press TV takes a look outside, "Obama ends G8 with warning to Iran". BBC English, whose coverage of Iran has almost collapsed, also devotes its limited attention to the G8 summit. CNN briefly refers to the arrest of academic Kian Tajbakhsh, primarily because he has American citizenship.

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2110 GMT: According to his son, pro-reform journalist Isa Saharkhiz has been seized and taken to an undisclosed location.

2015 GMT:Reports that women's rights activist Zeynab Peyghambarzadeh was arrested today in the "Mothers of Martyrs" rally in Laleh Park.

2000 GMT: Now This is Interesting. According to Iran Labor News Agency, Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in a meeting with the families of detainees, has said post-election events had caused "bitterness" while denying there was a power struggle in the Islamic state: "I don't think that (anybody with a) vigilant conscience is satisfied with the current situation."

Rafsanjani's manoeuvre should be seen as an attempt to get as much political leverage as possible while distancing himself from any call for massive change: "I hope with good management and wisdom the issues would be settled in the next days and the situation could improve ... We should think about protecting the system's long-term interests."

So Iran's ultimate politician is not going to make any challenge to the Supreme Leader. But here is the unknown from the interview: what does he propose as the fate of President Ahmadinejad?

1805 GMT: We're waiting to get details from a reported national TV broadcast by the Iranian President after the evening news. Meanwhile, here's a bit of political humour from Mr Ahmadinejad:

Addressing Iranian heads of medical universities on Saturday, President Ahmadinejad offered to debate President Obama at the United Nations headquarters in New York before the eyes of all nations of the world.

Given that the legitimacy of the 12 June election has yet to be accepted by a significant portion of the Iranian population, let alone the international community, we can only presume that Mr Ahmadinejad made the offer with a very wide smile on his face.

1650 GMT: Etemade Melli has published a lengthy account of Mehdi Karroubi's meetings with the families of detainees, including former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi.

1630 GMT: Another intervention in the clerical debate. The Assembly of Instructors and Researchers at the seminary in Qom have issued a statement calling the Government illegitimate.

1330 GMT: Lawyer Saleh Nikbakht says that Iranian authorities are going to try detained reformist leaders and Newsweek journalist Maziar Bahari on charges on endangering national security. Those facing trial include former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, former Deputy Minister of Economics Mohsen Safaei Farahani, former Presidential spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, and former Minister of Industry Behzad Nabavi.

1300 GMT: Irony Alert. Iran's Press TV English spends several minutes on the "illegal detention" of former US Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and other activists in Israel and, with apparent innocence, never mentions the possibility of "illegal detentions" closer to home.

Later in the broadcast, Press TV spends an excruciating five minutes, propped up by British journalist Yvonne Ridley, on its full and fair coverage of the post-election conflict and the contrasting intrigue and manipulation of the BBC.

1245 GMT: We're waiting for any news on the "protest in the parks" by mothers of the detained and killed and by other members of the opposition campaign.

Meanwhile, Fintan Dunne has picked up on Robert Dreyfuss's challenging article in The Nation, "Iran's Green Wave". Dreyfuss, who was in Iran in the run-up to the election, is dramatic in his analysis, "A victory by the opposition--as unlikely as it appears in the wake of the regime's crackdown--might let in a lot of fresh air....It's that scenario that Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and their IRGC and Basij allies are determined to resist at all costs. And they're prepared to unleash Tiananmen Square levels of violence to make sure it doesn't happen."

Indeed, I think is over-dramatic, both in the portrayal of the aims of the challenge to the election process and its aftermath and in the easy invocation of "Tiananmen Square". As an observation by an empassioned observer who had first-hand experience of the excitement up to the 12 June crisis, however, it's well worth a read.

1030 GMT: As always, Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summary on Anonymous Iran is worth a read. Most of the developments have also been reported here, but this information is new to us and of possible significance:

The main University of Sistan o Baluchistan has been shut-down by the government, according to unconfirmed reports. Furthermore, students from the university were dragged out of their dorms and sent home....The Association of Iranian University Graduates has released a statement claiming that, “the government was out to suppress opposition by any means possible escalating from the rigged elections.” Dozens of Iranian university professors have a signed a letter expressing deep anger for the attacks made by security forces on Iranian universities and students.

0945 GMT: More on yesterday's story that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani had declined to lead Friday prayers in Tehran. Media close to Rafsanjani report today that this indicates Rafsanjani is "resigning" from his clerical and political roles.

0910 GMT: More on the Manoeuvring Amongst the Clerics. Friday prayers in Qom, the religious centre of Iran, offer an important clue to a "middle ground" solution. Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini, who is also a leading member of the Assembly of Experts, said "errors had occurred" during the election and called on all four Presidential candidates to "come together and give help and cooperation".

0900 GMT: Piling on the Pressure. In an editorial in the "conservative" newspaper Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, an advisor to the Supreme Leader, has accused Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami of "horrible crimes and treason" and added, ""It has to be asked whether the actions of (Mousavi and his supporters) are in response to instructions by American authorities." Shariatmadari asserts that Mousavi is trying to "escape punishment for murdering innocent people, holding riots, cooperating with foreigners and acting as America's fifth column inside the country."

0845 GMT: Nothing to See Here. Go Away. Today's coverage on the Press TV website of the situation in Iran?

"Tokyo has taken a neutral stance towards the recent post-election unrest in Iran, undermining the mainstream portrayal of the events in Tehran" and....

“Western countries have now realized their stance on the Iranian elections was undoubtedly out of line,” head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Alaeddin Boroujerdi said.

Not a single word on the site about the internal political manoeuvres, either of the regime or the opposition campaign.

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1825 GMT: BBC English has posted a video report on the Iranian Government's "public service" campaign on a telephone hotline for people to inform on family and friends participating in demonstrations.

1645 GMT: BBC Persian reports that Ayatollah Yusef Sane'i, a fervent critic of the Government, has condemned televised confessions, saying they have no value as the obvious product of torture. Sane'i emphasized that "endurance is the key to success".

1515 GMT: The demonstration for 9 July is on. Andrew Sullivan has posted a copy of a leaflet (left) for the rally.

1445 GMT: Etemade Melli, the pro-"reformist" newspaper, reports today on the censorship imposed on Thursday by prosecutors and Ministry of Culture officials. The paper claims that its account of how it was closed on Wednesday by authorities was removed. Political stories were replaced by a "social page" and an item on the National University entrance examination.

1435 GMT: Reports that Sara Sabbaghian, lawyers and women's rights activist, was freed from Evin Prison on Thursday. In contrast, the regime's pressure on those present at the death of Neda Agha Soltan continues; in addition to pursuit of the doctor who tried to help her, Arash Hejazi, an eyewitness to the killing claims his family is being harassed.

There are also claims that three people have been killed, more than 200 injured, and many detained in the eastern city of Mashaad.

1315 GMT: Was Ayatollah Jannati's "foreign enemies" claim, with the threat of espionage trials, too embarrassing for Iranian state media? Press TV's website makes no reference to the allegations against Britain, saying cryptically that Jannati "warn[ed] that powers in the West would derive great benefits if the internal dispute continued to drag on". Instead, Press TV headlines, "Cleric urges end to election dispute in Iran". The Islamic Republic News Agency takes the same path, "Ayatollah Jannati: Presidential Elections Were Accurate".

An alternative explanation is that, whereas foreign media jumped on the Jannati reference to a possible trial, the focus of his speech was indeed on providing reassurances about the election process and warning that it was now over. The broader interpretation is unchanged, however; the regime is not yet secure that it has overcome the challenge on the streets and behind the scenes.

1250 GMT: We're keeping our eyes open for a text of Ayatollah Jannati's address at Friday prayers but my initial sense is that it indicates some continuing regime concern about protests: they have risked a heightened  invocation of the foreign threat, which may damage relations with Britain, Europe, and the US, to ensure public support for their maintenance of "order".

1245 GMT: More on the report below that Iranian staff of the British Embassy may be tried on espionage charges. The warning was issued by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the chairman of the Guardian Council, as he led Friday prayers in Tehran: "British foreign office had said last March that there may be riots during the elections in Iran and they said that they should warn their citizens to be careful. What do these predictions mean? And then some people in the U.K. embassy, who had a hand in the disturbances, were arrested and will surely be put on trial."

The context of the warning being issued in Friday prayers, rather than by a security or judiciary official, is significant --- it may even be good news for the detainees. This seems more of a political posture, reinforcing the regime's continued excuse of "foreign intervention" for its crackdown on internal dissent (see our prediction this morning in "What To Watch For Today", than a specific move towards formal prosecution.

1000 GMT: Watch Out. Both the BBC Persian service and Agence France Presse are reporting the statement of a Guardian Council member that local "staffers" of the British Embassy will be tried on espionage charges.

The plural should be noted, as earlier in the week Iranian authorities said all but one of the nine people detained had been released. And, if true, the report marks a significant escalation of tensions by Iran with Britain (though not directly with the US).

0930 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) posts a firsthand report from Tehran:

It's kind of changed from the first week, but it's definitely not over over. it's just going to be more drawn out, I think.

It's become a lot more localized in a way. People just do what they can on their own with their circle of people. Demonstrations are smaller but in different places now. I don't know how widely circulated the information going around is but there's a pretty large amount. You can feel it with strangers even like taxi drivers.

It's not that they're less pissed. If anything, they're more pissed. Because of the state and how blatantly they're lying.

0700 GMT: More on the claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declined to lead Friday prayers in Tehran last week. The original story is on a pro-Khatami, pro-Mousavi website. It is supported, according to Josh Shahryar, by one of his reliable sources.

0610 GMT: Josh Shahryar's daily "Green Brief", which we highlighted yesterday, again offers an essential overview of developments. Almost all of the items match up with information in our updates and other reliable sources. However, this item (which we will try to confirm) is both new and significant:

It has been reported that Rafsanjani, who is one of the Imams that lead Friday Prayers in Tehran's largest mosque, has declined to lead prayers there again. Last week, his spot was first filled by Khamenei, but Khamenei pulled out at the last minute leaving Ahmad Khatami to lead the prayers. Rafsanjani is not planning to attend this Friday's Prayers either.

0555 GMT: The challenge in Iran is now close to a non-story for major international outlets. There is nothing on CNN International's website and no appearance in the headlines of the BBC or Al Jazeera English. The BBC website only has a limited article on the removal of the block on SMS messaging, while Al Jazeera is still running the news from Wednesday that Mir Hossein Mousavi may face criminal charges.

Press TV English, meanwhile, is featuring the story of Israel's detention of former US Senator (and Press TV presenter) Cynthia McKinney and other activists, who were trying to break the Israeli sea blockade to get humanitarian aid to Gaza. (Ironically but significantly, the incident has been a non-story for US media.)