Iran: Ahmadinejad v. The Conservatives?

The Latest from Iran (23 July): Preparing the Front

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In the last week, the resurgence of the opposition movement has been parallelled by serious divisions within the regime. One catalyst for the internal arguments was President Ahmadinejad's insistence on the appointment of Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the father of his daughter-in-law, as First Vice President. Beyond the issue of nepotism, Rahim-Mashai is disliked by many "conservatives" because of a statement indicating that Iranians are friends of all people, including Israelis.

The "reformist" columnist Mohammd Abtahi, writing at the site Ayande, explains what is at stake in this showdown between conservative elements. He argues that, contrary to appearances, Ahmadinejad's stance is not foolhardy but politically necessary. (Thanks to Mani for both the tip and the translation.)

What is the relationship between the announced election results and the choice of Vice President Rashim-Mashai?

If all parties and individuals supporting the government are totally convinced that the President on 22 of Khordad (12 June) had 24 million votes, they must also logically accept that a great portion of these votes has been won as an affirmation of the President, rather than his conservative supporters. This is because these supporters, especially the more traditional elements, do not have sufficient popularity to procure this huge number of votes for the President through regular procedures.

If this logic is accepted, the President not only does not owe these conservative supporters anything, but as a matter of fact he has done them a huge service by amassing such a huge vote for the whole conservative faction through his policies or his special characteristics, thereby "avoiding a disaster for the conservative faction". If this huge service is indeed the case, it is natural that the President should respond suitably to this mandate and choose his closest ally for vice-presidency, and also demand that others not only accept his choice but also show the appropriate enthusiasm. If the conservative faction sincerely believes that the president has received such a huge mandate, they must accept the consequences of this belief, namely, that they must toe the line of the president.

Therefore, the current conservative opposition to the presidential choice is in fact an attempt to convince the President that somehow without their presence, it would have been impossible for him to obtain this huge number of votes and that the magnitude of this number has nothing to do with the characteristics of the President and his colleagues but is a direct consequence of their active support of him. This recognition would force the President to consider their interests in his choice of officials.

The struggle between the two factions ]the President and his conservative critics with regards to the choice of Vice President directly reflects what has happened during the presidential elections. If the conservative critics are forced to accept the President's choice, it means that a strong and practical effort has been made to convince all the conservative fraction that the 24 million votes associated with the President are real and that the conservative critics must confirm this. However, if the President backs down either in a direct fashion (the President chooses another individual) or indirect fashion (Rahim-Mashai gives up the post voluntarily), it signals that the conservative critics have forced the President and his cabal to comprehend that such a huge number of votes would not have been possible without their active presence, support and good will; therefore the President must concede a considerable amount of power to them.

How this ends remains to be seen.

The Latest from Iran (21 July): No Lull in the Cycle of Protest

The Latest from Iran (22 July): “The Pendulum Swings” Towards Opposition

NEW Iran Video: The Protests Continue (21 July)
NEW Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Failure in Mashaad? (17 July)
The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

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2200 GMT: Press TV jumps in on the debate over the choice of Iran's 1st Vice President, and it is siding with the Supreme Leader rather than President Ahmadinejad:

A senior Iranian parliamentarian says the Leader of the Islamic Revolution has advised the president to reverse his decision in appointing Esfandyar Rahim-Masha'i as his top deputy.

"Without any delay, the removal or acceptance of Masha'i's resignation must be announced by the president," Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, the first Majlis [Parliament] vice speaker, told the Iranian Students News Agency on Tuesday....The removal of Rahim-Masha'i from key positions and presidential deputies is the collective decision of the political establishment.”

1930 GMT: No confirmed reports on whether the "power overload" protest scheduled for 9 p.m. local time (1630 GMT) succeeded in causing blackouts, although there were unconfirmed claims that parts of Tehran, Karaj, and Qazvin lost power.

1910 GMT: The pro-Green Movement website Mowj-e-Sabz confirms that, in addition to Sunday's demonstrations in Tehran and Shiraz, there were sizable protests in Tabriz.

1900 GMT: A source expands on our post about Hashemi Rafsanjani's sharp response today to Ayatollah Khamenei:

Rafsanjani's website has recently posted a part of his memoirs that can be interpreted as a retort to Khameini's not so well concealed threats. The key section of this posting is as follows:

"An individual must not be intimidated by anything in this world. Whenever an individual faces a test it is insufficient to only have good intentions and unacceptable to limit oneself to empty slogans and claims. Each generation faces a test and challenge and the greatest test a man faces is when because of his love to god he is asked to sacrifice his spouse, his children and his capital. One must be brave."

Rafsanjani's website concludes the preceding paragraph with the following commentary: "The ironclad strength of these words indicate that the young Rafsanjani in his "struggle for the rights of people", had been well schooled by the great Khomeini on how to move beyond fear."

1845  GMT: We've posted the first video from today's protests in a separate entry.

1745 GMT: A Showdown between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei? Yes, you read that right. A source confirms our report (1600 GMT) that the Supreme Leader has ordered the President to force the resignation of his Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. However, an update claims that Ahmadinejad has insisted in an interview that the VP will remain in office: "Rahim-Mashai is a great supporter of the Islamic Regime, is a great believer in the principle of supreme leadership, leads a simple life and has served the public with distinction. He has been chosen as a VP and will continue to serve."

1740 GMT: I apologise for this morning's inaccurate headline, "A Lull in the Cycle of Protest". It has now been changed.

1730 GMT: BBC English has decided that maybe, just maybe, it should be paying attention to Iran again. I am listening to a report from Jon Leyne, who had been evicted from the country, has been brought back to say, "The pendulum could be swinging back to the opposition." He adds that he has heard from a source inside Iran that "defiance is growing". He concludes, "The system has been badly damaged by this....This is a country in the throes of change." The BBC website is also reporting that "hundreds, even thousands" of people protested.

1700 GMT: Reports, as with previous protests, that cellphone service cut in central Tehran. Claims that Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting facilities surrounded by special forces as crowds chant slogans.

1600 GMT: According to Parleman News, the Supreme Leader ordered President Ahmadinejad to remove his choice as Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, who is also the father of Ahmadinejad's daughter-in-law: “Without any delay, the dismissal order or Mashaei’s resignation must be announced by the President.” (NIAC Insight has an English summary.)

1550 GMT: Al Arabiya, citing "a witness", is now headlining, "Iran police clash with protesters", with hundreds at 7 Tir Square and dozens detained: "The witness said the protesters were chanting slogans against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the government, including 'Ahmadinejad -- resign, resign' and 'Death to the dictator'.

1510 GMT: Reports that protests are building in Tehran, particularly near 7 Tir Square. Reuters is first "mainstream" agency to report clashes with security forces.

1440 GMT: Reports of clashes between demonstrators and security forces at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran and Cinema Saadi Cross in Shiraz. People have moved to 7 Tir Square Square, but claims of attacks with tear gas as security forces hold the squares.

1430 GMT: The text of the letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani by two pro-Mousavi advisors --- Bijan Zanganeh, Minister of Petroleum in the Khatami Government and Moussavi's liason with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, and Abbas Akhoondi, a prominent Professor of Law at Tehran University and Mousavi's liason with the Guardian Council --- with a "fundamental framework of the proposed solution" has now been posted on the Internet.

The letter was sent on 20 June but only released on Sunday (see our updates on 19 July for a summary).

1400 GMT: The Ultimate Enemy - More on the denunciation of the Khatami call for referendum by Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari (see 1130 GMT). Shariatmadari has claimed the proposal has the "same instructions as Michael Ledeen, read the CIA" have proposed for regime change in Tehran. Ledeen, a rabid critic of the Iranian system who pressed for military action to overthrow it in 2003, is based at the American Enterprise Institute.

1130 GMT: Holding the Line. "Conservative" newspapers have denounced the call by former President Khatami and the Assocation of Combatant Clergy for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government. Hossein Shariatmadari, appointed by the Supreme Leader as the managing director of Kayhan, echoed Ayatollah Khamenei's "foreign intervention" theme, "They have suggested yet another Western plot to raise havoc by proposing a referendum. The main idea of this plan is to trigger tension. Their proposal is illegal and impractical." An editorial in Khabar asserted, "Such controversial proposals, despite their appeal to protestors... challenge the basis of the system. A referendum would create challenges which our country cannot harbour and it would incite unrest instead of building confidence."

1010 GMT: Reports that today's march, commemorating a 1952 rally for the Government of Mohammad Mossadegh, will take place at 3 p.m. local time (1030 GMT) from Rezaie Square to Mossadegh's tomb.

1000 GMT: The chief of Iran's police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has accused the opposition of "inciting sedition" and declared his force would act firmly to uphold the law. "Some people who failed to realize their election goal go on spreading doubt in different ways and then turn that ... into inciting sedition," Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam said. "This group of individuals voice the slogan of law abidance but they themselves do not observe the law ... they are sheer liars."

0945 GMT: The Battle is On, Round Two. No more questions, as in the first weeks of the post-election conflict, as to whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will work only behind the scenes. The former President has taken on the Supreme Leader's Monday speech, writing in a quote from his memoirs, "There is a test for every generation. People's issues are the most important test for this one."

0645 GMT: More on Mousavi meeting with detainees' families (see 0500 GMT). A valued source sends in these quotes from the opposition leader:

[Connecting the arrested with foreign governments] is a defensive tactic employed by individuals that that are threatened by [the idea] of people being free. This [fictititious] connection only serves as a pretext and justification, but everyone knows what these arrests are really about. Our people know that these arrested individuals have gentle and impressive personalities that have served this establishment for many years and it would be impossible to believe that any of them will sell National Interests to foreigners.....[These allegations] are an insult to the public's vote and their intelligence and will have its unsavory consequences.

The Iranian people saw corruption in the election process and sponteneously rallied to defend their rights. This wave of indignation will not be quenched by thousands or even ten thousands of arrests....We are stating that what has happened is against the law and against the ideals of the revolution and against the constitution and against the will of the people.

A government that establishes itself by hook or crook will be a weak government. It will be a government that will give major concessions to foreign governments, because it lacks popular support. Returning people's trust [to government] has an extremely high priority for us, because a loss of this trust may have serious consequences for our country."

[Upholding] individual freedoms of the people has a can ensure the security of society in a much more positive way than security crackdowns with wooden and metal clubs, in fact these crackdowns compromise the security of our country. Our people are much more mature [to deserve] a regression to pre-revolutionary unacceptable methods.

0635 GMT: Keeping It in the Family. President Ahmadinejad may have been rebuffed in his attempt to name the father of his daughter-in-law as a Vice President, but Mowj-e-sabz claims that Ahmadinejad's son-in-law Mehdi Khorshidi will be the head Presidential Secretary, and the husband of Ahmadinejad's sister-in-law will be the head of the Iranian national youth organization.

0625 GMT: An intriguing follow-up reports on Sunday's demonstrations in Shiraz (see video in our updates for 19 July) in the Ehsan ampitheatre. The website Mowj-e-sabz claims that this rally, "a gathering of the election campaign managers of Mousavi and Karroubi", is the "first official gathering of the reformists after the elections and it also is the first gathering of the reformers that has a permit".

Given that the Government has not given a permit for demonstration in Tehran since 15 June, apart from the Beheshti memorial at Qoba mosque on 28 June, this rally was likely to have received permission from provincial officials. So who are they and will they now face retribution from the regime?

0600 GMT: There are reports that protestors will turn out on the streets today, linking the demonstration to one on the same day in 1952 in support of the nationalist Government of Mohammad Mossadegh.

0500 GMT: The crisis in Iran has now "settled", if that word can be used, into a rhythm in which a prominent show of opposition is followed by a regime reaction and then a few days of quiet. Friday's address by Hashemi Rafsanjani brought a response from the Supreme Leader yesterday, and this morning both sides are taking a step back to assess the position. The one scheduled event for today is the "power overload" protest for 9 p.m. local time, with demonstrators hoping to black out the national news by switching on electrical appliances.

Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarises one notable development, the meeting of Mir Hossein Mousavi with families of detainees. The opposition leader is using these occasions not only to show support for the detained and their relatives but also to indicate that protest has not ebbed and to set out political positions. Yesterday he said the Green Movement was peaceful but was ready to make sacrifices, declaring, “The Iranian Nation had matured and that the use of pre-1979 tactics wouldn’t be enough to silence it....The Nation had been reborn and was going to defend its achievements.”

Mousavi asked the government to ensure freedom of speech and condemned ongoing arrests. And, in a rebuttal to the line of the Supreme Leader, he said it was “an insult to the Iranian Nation to suggest that foreigners had orchestrated the post-election protests in Iran".

Mousavi's Facebook page also continues to be an active location to challenge the Government. This morning it has countered an appearance by the Iranian Foreign Minister, declaring, "WE ARE THE MEDIA!" It is featuring the call by the Association of Combatant Clergy for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government (see yesterday's updates), and it is highlighting a video, which allegedly shows a lack of public turnout for President Ahmadinejad's appearance in Mashaad on Friday (see separate entry).

The Latest from Iran (20 July): How Far Can This Go?

NEW Iran Video: Cleric Tabatabai Criticises Ahmadinejad on State TV (20 July)
NEW Iran: The Supreme Leader Responds
LATEST Iran Video: The Rafsanjani Prayer Address (17 July)
Iran: Pressure on the Supreme Leader?

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1945 GMT: Dr Mehdi Khazali, manager of the publication Hayan, has been released from detention. Khazali, the son of Grand Ayatollah Abulghasem Khazali, a member of the Assembly of Experts, is a strident critic of President Ahmadinejad, whom has accused of having Jewish roots.

1915 GMT: Speaking on a programme on state television, an Iranian cleric, Hojatoleslam Seyed Mehdi Tabatabai, criticised President Ahmadinejad's televised post-election speech on 13 June as "inflammatory".


1645 GMT: Following up this morning's story on possible challenges to the Supreme Leader, we've posted a summary and analysis of the Supreme Leader's address to officials and citizens this afternoon. Press TV's summary leaves no doubt about Khamenei's target: "The remarks come several days after renewed protests emerged on Friday when influential cleric and politician Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani led prayers attended by hundreds of thousands of people at Tehran University."

1535 GMT: Where is Bijan Khajehpour? At The Huffington Post, the prominent US-based analyst Trita Parsi highlights the case of the economist who was arrested on arrival at a Tehran airport on 27 June. Because Khajehpour has taught at American as well as Iranian universities and advised companies in Europe, he may prove an "exceptional" detainee for the Western media, despite the fears of his family that "they fear the world will forget about him because they never knew his face and never heard his story".

1520 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has just posted an account of his treatment by security forces as he arrived at Tehran University for Friday prayers (pictured). The English translation from Keeping the Change:

When the crowds saw me driving past, they came towards me and followed me as I continued the drive to Tehran University. As we came closer to the University I saw that government forces, armed and seated on motocycles, had gathered and were spraying tear gas into the surrounding area. I knew that if the crowds of people following me proceeded further there would be a violent clash with the state's security forces, just as there had been at the Ghoba Mosque on the anniversary of the martydom of Ayatollah Beheshti [June 28, 2009]. For this reason, I signaled to the crowd to disperse and indicated to them that I would proceed to the Friday prayers alone. Even though I usually drive through the University to the prayer hall, on this occassion I chose to leave the car. Other than members of the government's security team, I did not see anyone else there. As soon as I got out of the car, these men began chanting "Death to the Opponents of Velayate Faghi [the Iranian system of ultimate clerical authority]", which caught me off guard. Though at this time there were no other witnesses around, as everyone has seen, the different pictures proving that the security forces attacked me and knocked the turban off my head have been published. So how do they [the government] think they can hide the things they have done to the people or that they can blame these incidents on others? All the things they have done have taken place before the eyes of the people.

1500 GMT: Overloading the System. For some time, we have been hearing of plans for a co-ordinated protest tomorrow to "black out" Tehran by overloading the electrical grid. The tactic was used with some effect to curb President Ahmadinejad's television address two weeks ago; the proposal is to make a symbolic protest at 9 p.m. tomorrow at the start of the national news. Activists have been posting details on which appliances consume the most energy.

A reader points out why this call to action goes beyond similar proposals: it has been endorsed on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site.

1230 GMT:  The Touchstone of Detentions. More evidence that, while the protest movement may not be settled on its aims, it can draw unity from the regime's refusal to free those arrested in post-election conflict. Mosharekat website reports a statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi that protests will not end while the Government detains demonstrators and opposition leaders:

Isn't it an insult to 40 million voters ... linking detainees to foreign countries? ... Our dear ones in prison have no access to lawyers and are under pressure to make confessions ... With detentions the issue (row) will not be resolved ... Let people freely express their protests and ideas.

0930 GMT: Via IranRevolution, a list of 158 "Revolution Martyrs", including 46 names.

0920 GMT: The formation of Mousavi's Political Front is entering the tug-of war phase. Legally, the formation of a political front does not require official permission from the Interior Ministry; however, the reformist site Mardomak reports that the ministry is asserting that the formation of all parties, societies and fronts must have a permit from the Interior Ministry.

Mardomak also reports that the provincial governor of Tehran as said that "releasing the detainees is against the law".

0915 GMT: Confirming news that broke on Sunday: Hossein Rasam, the last local staffer of the British Embassy held by the Iranian government, was released from custody after he posted bail.

0730 GMT: The Association of Combatant Clergy, associated with Mohammad Khatami, have amplified the call for a referendum on the post-election legimitacy of the Government: "Considering the fact that even a minimum of trust towards the election process is non-existent, .......[we] demand a free referendum so that all of Iranian society can express their opinions about  the post election events." The statement adds an unsubtle slap at the Guardian Council, insisting the referendum be supervised by "impartial observers that are trusted by the public, not bodies that are responsible for this crisis".

0545 GMT: Sunday saw more political manoeuvres, both symbolic and very real, as the opposition tried to assess how far it could press its challenge.

One symbolic and real victory came with the announcement that the father of President Ahmadinejad's daughter-in-law, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, had declined his appointment as Vice-President. (Well, possibly. Mainstream media have not caught up but, as we updated last night, Rahim-Mashai wrote on his website that he had not resigned. At a minimum, the episode points to confusion in the President's ranks.)

However, the deputy to the Supreme Leader's representative in the Revolutionary Guards tried to hold the line, claiming that many prominent politicians have been "engaged in treacherous intrigue". He included former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, former President Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Despite the warning, Rafsanjani received headline coverage in Iranian media for his pilgrimage to the shrine of Imam Reza in Mashaad. Mousavi, following Karroubi, issued a statement expressing condolences to Armenia and to the Armenian-Iranian community over last week's air crash that killed 168 people.

At the practical level, Khatami called for a national referendum on the conduct of the 12 June election. Even more intriguing is Khatami's meeting with Minister of Intelligence Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie --- no information about this discussion is available yet.

The Latest from Iran (19 July): Breathing Space

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2045 GMT: Two new videos have emerged which purport to show protests in Shiraz today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgZjgvo09R8[/youtube]

The second video is here.

2035 GMT: The Guardian reports that 36 Iranian army officers were arrested after planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani's sermon in uniform in uniform, "as an act of political defiance." (via IranWire)

2030 GMT: Abbasali Kadkhodai, in an interview with FarsNews, responded to the criticisms of Rafsanjani and commented upon the Zanganeh and Akhondi letter.

Kadkhodai claimed that "the Guardian Council applied all possible legal means to ensure maximum trust in the election process". He also said that when we were investigating the election Larijani suggested  ".... that a committee compromised of  heads of the national auditory office, national prosecution office and a member of the Guardian Council be formed to investigate the complaints of the opposition candidates". Kadkhodai continued by claiming "... although this suggestion [of Larijani's] was problematic we accepted it ... but Mousavi and Karroubi rejected the proposal".

Kadkhodai claimed that contrary to the statement of Rafsanjani, "that in the given five days the Guardian Council used all opportinities to ensure trust [in the election process]." Commenting upon the fact that the Guardian council has been at the receiving end of critical statements, Kadkhodai said "unfortunately some prominent men made no effort to solve these problems. If they had done so, maybe the worries of Mr. Rafsanjani would have been addressed. Kadkhodai closed his interview by stating that "the Guardian Council has not shirked in performing its legal duties in the presidential election process and has left a good performance record".

2015 GMT: Another twist in the tale of Ahmadinejad's VP- Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has just updated his personal website with a statement that says: "rumours of my resignation have been propagated by ill-intentioned people who intend to force my resignation and thereby cause the collapse of the government.  These rumours are absolute falsehoods." The confusion over his current status within the Ahmadinejad government could indicate infighting amongst Iranian conservatives.

2000 GMT: A few hours ago (see 1700 GMT) we linked to a post by Juan Cole, which suggested that Iranian hard liners weren't happy. A reader informs us that Cole has confused Ayatollah Misbah Yazdi, an ultra-hardline cleric. with Ayatollah Yazdi, also a hardline cleric.

1930 GMT: Iranian press are reporting that former President Khatami has called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the Government.

1700 GMT: Abbas Palizdar, who exposed the corruption of many officials including Ayatollah Yazdi, has been freed. (via IranRiggedElect)

Juan Cole thinks that the hard liners aren't happy.

1630 GMT: The Government buckles. Esfandiar Rahim Mashai- whose daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son- has declined appointment as 1st Vice President after pressure from Members of Parliament.

Rumour of the Day: In a meeting last Tuesday, the Supreme Leader asked Hashemi Rafsanjani to attend Ahmadinejad's inauguration. Rafsanjani angrily refused.

1500 GMT: A significant development? Conservative site Jahan News is reporting that Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has resigned his post as Ahmadinejad's VP pick.



1445 GMT: Parlemanews also reports that 20 pro-reformist members of Parliament are officially placing a question to the Minister of the Interior Mahsooli and Minister of Information Ejehi: "these members have asked the ministers to state under what charges these individuals- many of whom have been officials of previous governments and/or previous members of parliament- have been detained."

Another 24 reformist MPs also asked the Interior Minister: "why has a political problem been treated as a security issue?" and  have also asked for clarification about the "attack to on Tehran University Dormitories".

Mehdi Karroubi, meanwhile, has continued to visit the families of detainees, and also went to the the church of St. Sarkis in Tehran to pay his respects to the Armenian-Iranian casualties of the recent plane crash. While there he offered his condolences to the family of Dr. Leon Davidian (an Armenian member of parliament of the 6th Majlis) who was amongst the casualties. Karroubi is the highest ranking politician to have paid personal respects to the Armenian casualties- the Iranian government has come under some criticism for not demonstrating enough sympathy to the Armenian-Iranian victims.

UPDATE 1430 GMT: Parlemannews has revealed new details of Rafsanjani's pilgrimage: Rafsanjani is visiting Mashad to consult with Ayatollahs Makarem-Shirazi and Safi-Golpayegani who are also on a pilgrimage to Mashad. Parlemannews states that both Ayatollahs are strongly against Ahamdinehad's Vice Presidential pick, and also reminds its readers that Ayatollah Ezeddin Zanjani, the highest ranking cleric in Mashad is in the pro-reform fraction.



0750 GMT: The New Political Front? Rassool Montajebnia, Mehdi Karroubi's deputy in the Etemade Melli reformist party, has said that it would be very useful if former President Mohammad Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi established strong political parties with well-defined objectives to rally and organize their supporters. The resulting party or parties could then join forces with other parties such as Etamade Melli to advance the reformist agenda.

So, for the Karroubi camp, progress through established parties is the way forward. Montajebnia stated that the current political front of Mousavi is  currently in a rather vague state and does not have a well-defined pattern.

0745 GMT: It looks like that Russia may be growing uncomfortable with its backing of President Ahmadinejad. The "conservative" news site Khabar Online writes, "A specialist from the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies has acknowledged significant irregularities in the election results, concluding that Ahmadinejad may have won but not with such a great margin".

0730 GMT: A Trip to Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani is in Mashaad on a pilgrimage to Imam Reza. The visit comes only 72 hours after President Ahmadinejad went to the city.

Meanwhile, the Government faces more pressure with criticism of the choice of Vice Presidents (see yesterday's updates), now being seen in some "conservative" press. The reformist Member of Parliament Darius Ghanbari is actively investigating methods to impeach Ahmadinejad and may use the VP issue as a rallying cry.

0700 GMT: Unsurprisingly a relatively quiet Saturday after all the tension of the day before. Both the Government and opposition appeared to be taking time to reposition.

However, another clear sign of the dynamic between Hashemi Rafsanjani's now-public position and the opposition challenge came in an open letter, published in both "conservative" and "reformist" outlets, from two advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi --- Bijan Zanganeh, Minister of Petroleum in the Khatami Government and Moussavi's liason  with Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, and Abbas Akhoondi, a prominent Professor of Law at Tehran University and Mousavi's liason with the Guardian Council --- addressed to Ali Larijani.

The letter was originally sent to Larijani on 20 June, the day after the Supreme Leader spoke at Friday prayers. However, "regretfully these suggestions were not attended to by people in charge", so Zanganeh and Akhoondi "hope that public knowledge of this letter may be of some use". Parleman News adds the political significance: the publication of this letter is "in direct response to the critics of Mr Rafsanjani's recent speech, especially to those that take issue with Rafsanjani's statement that the Guardian Council did not effectively use the five extra days given to them [to resolve the election's irregularities]".

The letter is a useful platform, echoing Rafsanjani's address, for political progress rather than a manifesto of changes. 1) Trust must be reestablished between the two opposing sides; .2) The right to protest the election results must be officially accepted, respecting rights guaranteed by the Iranian constitution. These rights include the right to congregate to protest peacefully, the right to have a public voice, and the right to be fairly represented in other national media. Specifically, Mir Hossein Mousavi must be given the opportunity to state his position in national television.

Significantly, Zanganeh and Akhoondi follow this, in the re-publication of the 30 June letter, with an indication that the Mousavi camp has not given up the challenge to the 12 June election. Given the Guardian Council blatant support of President Ahmadinejad during and after the election, a body "comprised of prominent Iranians that are universally considered to be trustworthy" should be formed for arbitration.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi intervened in an interview with Deutsche Welle, saying that Hashemi Rafsanjani told the truth about the regime but not all the truth.

Reports contnue of arrests on Friday, including youth group members of Mir Hossein Mousavi's party.