Wednesday
Jul152009
UPDATED Iran: How Many Protesters Have Died?
Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 23:59
The Latest from Iran (15 July): Chess not Checkers
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UPDATE (16 July, 0700 GMT): Internet chatter has been of 200-300 deaths in violence against protesters. Fintan Dunne offers the basis for the estimate, putting forth a figure of 245. This is based on news reports, unofficial hospital counts, and a series of assumptions.
I admire Fintan's work greatly, but I can't see this as more than speculation with asssertions like "allow around 35% of fatalities to enter hospitals; hide 65% of the bodies in IRGC morgues / cold-store locations". The percentage hidden could be higher, could be lower. Same for the total number of casualties.
We simply don't know.
We have been very cautious in reporting casualty figures from the post-election violence in Iran. Inevitably, given tension and concern, there are a swirl of rumours and partial information that can lead to inaccurate and misleading numbers.
On 25 June, we posted a list from the International Committee for Human Rights of "at least 27 fatalities in Tehran" with its note that "the true numbers are most probably much higher....There are also reports of fatalities in other cities but the Campaign has not been able to collect any reliable information." On 4 July, we noted the names of 12 people whose deaths had been confirmed. And there have been individual cases such as Sohrab Arabi, whose death on 15 June was only confirmed last week.
The situation is still unclear, but the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has made another intervention, claiming that 34 people were killed in a single day, Saturday, 20 June, in Tehran. (This was the day that Neda Agha Soltan was killed by a Basij gunman as she watched the demonstrations.) The Campaign, noting that the Government only acknowledged 11 deaths, adds, "There are also several other major hospitals along the routes that could have received the dead and injured on that day."
What is even more striking, however, is the Campaign's assertion, "Information is accumulating suggesting that hundreds of protesters were slaughtered during the demonstrations."
That "information" appears to be based on a report in Norooz, the newspaper of the Islamic Iran Participation Front (strongly opposed to the current Government):
In addition, the Campaign cites "sources in Iran" that "hundreds of family members are desperately searching for their missing relatives".
Such reports need to be treated with caution. Amidst grief and panic, worries can be exaggerated into fact. At the same time, the Government has a clear motive in minimising the casualty figures as well as blocking any possibility of a comprehensive investigation. The outcome is that we are mostly likely to hear of deaths on an individual basis, as in the case of Sohrab Arabi.
The sad reality is that truth will be hindered and rendered impossible by the lack of any transparency over what has happened, both at the time and subsequently. Let it be said, however, that the claim of tragedy and loss does not need a specific number to be valid.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
UPDATE (16 July, 0700 GMT): Internet chatter has been of 200-300 deaths in violence against protesters. Fintan Dunne offers the basis for the estimate, putting forth a figure of 245. This is based on news reports, unofficial hospital counts, and a series of assumptions.
I admire Fintan's work greatly, but I can't see this as more than speculation with asssertions like "allow around 35% of fatalities to enter hospitals; hide 65% of the bodies in IRGC morgues / cold-store locations". The percentage hidden could be higher, could be lower. Same for the total number of casualties.
We simply don't know.
We have been very cautious in reporting casualty figures from the post-election violence in Iran. Inevitably, given tension and concern, there are a swirl of rumours and partial information that can lead to inaccurate and misleading numbers.
On 25 June, we posted a list from the International Committee for Human Rights of "at least 27 fatalities in Tehran" with its note that "the true numbers are most probably much higher....There are also reports of fatalities in other cities but the Campaign has not been able to collect any reliable information." On 4 July, we noted the names of 12 people whose deaths had been confirmed. And there have been individual cases such as Sohrab Arabi, whose death on 15 June was only confirmed last week.
The situation is still unclear, but the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has made another intervention, claiming that 34 people were killed in a single day, Saturday, 20 June, in Tehran. (This was the day that Neda Agha Soltan was killed by a Basij gunman as she watched the demonstrations.) The Campaign, noting that the Government only acknowledged 11 deaths, adds, "There are also several other major hospitals along the routes that could have received the dead and injured on that day."
What is even more striking, however, is the Campaign's assertion, "Information is accumulating suggesting that hundreds of protesters were slaughtered during the demonstrations."
That "information" appears to be based on a report in Norooz, the newspaper of the Islamic Iran Participation Front (strongly opposed to the current Government):
Authorities took [family members looking for missing relatives] to a cold storage facility in southwest Tehran made for storing fruits and dairy products. In their presence they showed pictures of hundreds of those that have been killed until they were able to find the picture of their loved one. It took nearly thirty minutes of searching for them to find the photo of their relative. As they were leaving, they saw hundreds of bodies piled on top of each other.
In addition, the Campaign cites "sources in Iran" that "hundreds of family members are desperately searching for their missing relatives".
Such reports need to be treated with caution. Amidst grief and panic, worries can be exaggerated into fact. At the same time, the Government has a clear motive in minimising the casualty figures as well as blocking any possibility of a comprehensive investigation. The outcome is that we are mostly likely to hear of deaths on an individual basis, as in the case of Sohrab Arabi.
The sad reality is that truth will be hindered and rendered impossible by the lack of any transparency over what has happened, both at the time and subsequently. Let it be said, however, that the claim of tragedy and loss does not need a specific number to be valid.