Afghanistan Document: Foreign Troops Out by 2014? (Owen/Brady)

Jonathan Owen and Brian Brady write for The Independent of London (note the lack of clarity as to whether the document covers US troops):

British troops are to pull out of Afghanistan by 2014, under a secret blueprint for drawing down coalition forces that is set to begin in a matter or months, it emerged last night. A leaked communiqué – a copy of which has been seen by The Independent on Sunday – reveals how President Hamid Karzai will announce the timetable for a "conditions-based and phased transition" at the International Conference on Afghanistan to be held in Kabul on Tuesday.

Afghanistan: The Failing Strategy to Train Local Forces (Owen/Brady)

The meeting --- which is set to map out the way ahead for the war-torn country --- will be attended by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, and foreign ministers from more 70 countries. An agreed version of the document, marked "not for circulation", was sent to senior diplomats yesterday by Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations Special Representative in Afghanistan.

It states: "The international community expressed its support for the President of Afghanistan's objective that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) should lead and conduct military operations in all provinces by the end of 2014." This comes just weeks after Mr Hague hinted that British troops could leave by 2014, and is the first formal confirmation of the timescale that governments have been working towards behind the scenes to agree in recent months."

The communiqué goes on to pledge that the international community will continue to "provide the support necessary to increase security during this time, and the continued support in training, equipping and providing interim financing to the ANSF at every level to take on the task of securing their country". It adds: "The government of Afghanistan and the international community agreed to jointly assess provinces, with the aim of announcing by the end of 2010 that the process of transition is under way."

The announcement is one of many issues surrounding development and governance that will be addressed at the conference, as well as an $800m (£523m) five-year Afghan peace and reintegration programme that "aims to reintegrate in five years up to 36,000 ex-combatants and to reach 4,000 communities in 220 districts of 22 provinces". The document also outlines short-term goals for coalition troops. These include combating the opium trade by maintaining the provinces that are currently free of drug cultivation, and increasing the number of poppy-free provinces in Afghanistan to 24 within 12 months. It also describes transparent elections in future as a matter of paramount importance.

President Karzai will tell delegates that the conference represents "a turning point" in Afghanistan's "transition to an era of Afghan-led peace, justice and more equitable development". He will also pledge that "expanding the day-to-day choices and capabilities of the Afghan people and ensuring their fundamental rights" will "remain the cornerstones of my government's approach to peace-building and comprehensive recovery".

A senior source in the British military confirmed yesterday that the blueprint was "a significant map laying out the stages on the way to withdrawal". He said: "The British government has been talking in terms of a 2014 withdrawal, but nobody has been able to produce a timetable identifying how and when things would happen. This document demonstrates that there is a will in the international community to have it done by then.

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Afghanistan: The Failing Strategy to Train Local Forces (Owen/Brady)

Jonathan Owen and Brian Brady write for The Independent on Sunday of London:

The strategic plan of creating an Afghan security force to replace US and British troops fighting in Afghanistan is in serious disarray with local forces a fraction of their reported size, infiltrated by the Taliban at senior levels, and plagued by corruption and drug addiction, an Independent on Sunday investigation can reveal.

And the way in which their capacity has been assessed over several years, during which time tens of billions of dollars have been spent on building up Afghan security forces, is so flawed that it has been scrapped.

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Less than a quarter of the army and less than one in seven police units are rated as "CM1" – meaning they are capable of operating independently. Yet the true picture is worse. An audit of the Capability Milestone (CM) rating system used to rate police and army units has revealed a misleading picture of the true level of progress.

Arnold Field, US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (Sigar), described the system as "unreliable and inconsistent". His audit warns that Afghan military and police assessments "have overstated operational capabilities", with even the top-rated units unable to operate independently. As many as 50 per cent of police units in some areas are failing drugs tests it notes. On one occasion, coalition soldiers witnessed Afghan police openly smoking cannabis and unwilling to conduct operations or leave their compound.

The report details how army units can be as low as 59 per cent of their supposed size when it comes to going on duty. On average, only 74 per cent of Afghan soldiers in combat units were actually found present for duty, according to the report.

It warns of critical shortages of military advisers needed to "meet the demands of current force development goals", with a shortfall of more than 200 mentoring and partnering teams as of March this year.

The International Security Assistance Force's (Isaf) leaders acknowledge problems with the local security forces, as they brace themselves for an increase in attacks over the summer months. Isaf hopes to increase the combined strength of the Afghan Army and police from under 200,000 at the start of 2009 to over 300,000 next year, in the hope that this will accelerate a withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan.

But an analysis by the IoS reveals that the true strength of the Afghan security forces – those that have been trained and judged to be able to operate independently – is barely 34,000. This is almost a seventh of the 236,000 claimed by Nato/Isaf.

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