Thursday
Jun182009
Iran: What's Happening? Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter
Thursday, June 18, 2009 at 8:46
NEW The Latest from Iran (19 June): The Known and the Unknown
The Latest from Iran (18 June): From Green to “A Sea of Black”
LATEST Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran
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On "Anonymous Iran", Josh Shahryar has posted a summary of 16 points about the Iranian crisis. This is based on a thorough examination of stories circulated via Twitter --- "no news media outlets have been used in the compilation".
We've cross-checked Mr Shahryar's summary against our information --- from Iranian and international news outlets, the best of the websites covering the crisis, and contacts. We also have tried to assess the importance of the points: for example, without downplaying the other indicators, we think #16 on the political manoeuvres is the most significant, The notations in italics are our current assessment:
1. During the last protest in Tehran, several policemen have been spotted by protesters who were wearing green bands which is the color of the revolution. The policemen have told them candidly that they support them. [Unverified, although there is video footage of demonstrators mingling peacefully with police]
2. During the protests, on several occasions, Baseejis who have attacked peaceful protesters have been arrested on the spot by the police. This seems to have occured in several spots, yet it hasn't been a crackdown of sorts. A few cases only! [Unverified]
3. Several Baseeji militiamen have been spotted laying down their arms and going home after being asked to interfere with the protesters. [Unverified]
4. By far the biggest threat people are facing right now are plainclothesmen. They seem to be everywhere and are targetting people who are not in groups. These men have been mostly linked with Ansar e Hezbollah. [N.B.: This is a different organisation from the Lebanese Hezbollah.] They are responsible for beating people up, arresting people, threatening protesters, arresting reformists from their homes and such. [Verified from numerous sources]
5. So far, it has been confirmed that 15 people in Tehran and 32 people around the country have been killed. Hundreds more have been injured and in excess of 800 people have been detained. Among these there are dozens of reformists. Most of these arrests have been made by the notorious plainclothesmen mentioned above. [The casualty figures, especially outside Tehran, are hard to verify. The number of arrests can only be an estimate, although "hundreds" is indicated from numerous sources.]
6. During yesterday's protests, mullahs have been spotted joining rallies within Tehran and in several other cities. No one could confirm what the status of these Mullahs was or is within the clerical society, but their numbers have been very visible this time. [Unverified, but a number of clerics have been openly critical of President Ahmadinejad and the electoral process. See today's New York Times for an interesting analysis.]
7. Protests have occured not just in Tehran yesterday, but in Ahvaz, Mashhad, Kermanshah, Qazvin, Shiraz, Tabriz and EVEN Qom. [Largely verified, although we are checking the Qom claim.]
8. Pro-Ahmadinejad protesters' numbers have been greatly exaggerated by the state media in comparison to Mousavi's supporters' numbers. In reality, Pro-Ahmadinejad protesters were only a pocket full of people. Most of these people have been identified by other protesters as either people who work at government offices or people who were brought from the countryside. [Unverified and should be treated with caution. Television images showed more than a "pocketful" of people and the claim that their opinions are not legimitate should be considered with the same scepticism as the claim that opposition demonstrators are not legitimate in their protest.]
9. After downplaying the protests for days, the state-run media has finally started to announce news of the events a little more accurately. [Verified, although the state media is now trying to ignore the protests. See today's updates.]
10. Text Messaging is still down in Iran and internet is extremely slow. People are unable to get sattelite channels on their televisions. At the same time, police and plainclothesmen are going door to door and taking away people's satellite dish antennas. [Largely verified. We have only anecdotal evidence of the taking away of antennas.]
11. Mohsen Rezayee, one of the candidates, is going to declare his support for a reelection tomorrow. The fourth candidate, Mahdi Karoubi openly joined yesterday's rally. [Verified.]
12. A group of prominent officials within the Ministry of Interior have written a letter to the Guardian Council declaring that they have witnessed widespread irregularities within the voting and counting processes during the election. They have asked this matter to be investigated fully. [Unverified.]
13. As of today, not a single report of the military's intervention into the peaceful protests has been established. Not a single one. [Verified. Apart from a brief reports of tanks on the streets on Monday night, there has been no evidence of Iranian military challenging the demonstrations.]
14. Khatami and Mousavi have both asked the Ministry of Justice to investigate the involvement of the plainclothesmen in the violence that has been sparked during the protests. [Verified.]
15. Several eye-witnesses have seen non-Iranian Arabs waving Hamas/Hezbollah flags around the protests. These reports have been fully confirmed and are NOT a rumor spread by Israel. [Unverified and should be treated with caution. The accusation of "foreign" support is being used by both sides in the political manoeuvring.]
16. Finally, the big news. It seems that the Green Revolution has garnered the support of Hashemi Rafsanjani, Nateq Noori, Tabatabayee and other prominent clerics and politicians. The Rohaniyone Mubarez organization that which has in its ranks pretty much most of the clerics except for the ones in power and includes Mr. Rafsanjani and Mr. Noori has declared their support for the annullment of the election and holding of new elections. Ayatollah Montazeri has yet to declare clear support. [An important claim which is not untrue but is exaggerated at this point. Rafsanjani is clearly trying to mobilise opposition to President Ahmadinejad and the election outcome. We know that he was in Qom on Saturday, asking clerics to come out against the President, but we have no indication that he was successful with "most" of them. This is a key story which should be watched carefully in forthcoming days.]
[Enduring America is continuing to follow the situation in Iran very closely- for the latest, please subscribe to our updates.]
The Latest from Iran (18 June): From Green to “A Sea of Black”
LATEST Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
On "Anonymous Iran", Josh Shahryar has posted a summary of 16 points about the Iranian crisis. This is based on a thorough examination of stories circulated via Twitter --- "no news media outlets have been used in the compilation".We've cross-checked Mr Shahryar's summary against our information --- from Iranian and international news outlets, the best of the websites covering the crisis, and contacts. We also have tried to assess the importance of the points: for example, without downplaying the other indicators, we think #16 on the political manoeuvres is the most significant, The notations in italics are our current assessment:
1. During the last protest in Tehran, several policemen have been spotted by protesters who were wearing green bands which is the color of the revolution. The policemen have told them candidly that they support them. [Unverified, although there is video footage of demonstrators mingling peacefully with police]
2. During the protests, on several occasions, Baseejis who have attacked peaceful protesters have been arrested on the spot by the police. This seems to have occured in several spots, yet it hasn't been a crackdown of sorts. A few cases only! [Unverified]
3. Several Baseeji militiamen have been spotted laying down their arms and going home after being asked to interfere with the protesters. [Unverified]
4. By far the biggest threat people are facing right now are plainclothesmen. They seem to be everywhere and are targetting people who are not in groups. These men have been mostly linked with Ansar e Hezbollah. [N.B.: This is a different organisation from the Lebanese Hezbollah.] They are responsible for beating people up, arresting people, threatening protesters, arresting reformists from their homes and such. [Verified from numerous sources]
5. So far, it has been confirmed that 15 people in Tehran and 32 people around the country have been killed. Hundreds more have been injured and in excess of 800 people have been detained. Among these there are dozens of reformists. Most of these arrests have been made by the notorious plainclothesmen mentioned above. [The casualty figures, especially outside Tehran, are hard to verify. The number of arrests can only be an estimate, although "hundreds" is indicated from numerous sources.]
6. During yesterday's protests, mullahs have been spotted joining rallies within Tehran and in several other cities. No one could confirm what the status of these Mullahs was or is within the clerical society, but their numbers have been very visible this time. [Unverified, but a number of clerics have been openly critical of President Ahmadinejad and the electoral process. See today's New York Times for an interesting analysis.]
7. Protests have occured not just in Tehran yesterday, but in Ahvaz, Mashhad, Kermanshah, Qazvin, Shiraz, Tabriz and EVEN Qom. [Largely verified, although we are checking the Qom claim.]
8. Pro-Ahmadinejad protesters' numbers have been greatly exaggerated by the state media in comparison to Mousavi's supporters' numbers. In reality, Pro-Ahmadinejad protesters were only a pocket full of people. Most of these people have been identified by other protesters as either people who work at government offices or people who were brought from the countryside. [Unverified and should be treated with caution. Television images showed more than a "pocketful" of people and the claim that their opinions are not legimitate should be considered with the same scepticism as the claim that opposition demonstrators are not legitimate in their protest.]
9. After downplaying the protests for days, the state-run media has finally started to announce news of the events a little more accurately. [Verified, although the state media is now trying to ignore the protests. See today's updates.]
10. Text Messaging is still down in Iran and internet is extremely slow. People are unable to get sattelite channels on their televisions. At the same time, police and plainclothesmen are going door to door and taking away people's satellite dish antennas. [Largely verified. We have only anecdotal evidence of the taking away of antennas.]
11. Mohsen Rezayee, one of the candidates, is going to declare his support for a reelection tomorrow. The fourth candidate, Mahdi Karoubi openly joined yesterday's rally. [Verified.]
12. A group of prominent officials within the Ministry of Interior have written a letter to the Guardian Council declaring that they have witnessed widespread irregularities within the voting and counting processes during the election. They have asked this matter to be investigated fully. [Unverified.]
13. As of today, not a single report of the military's intervention into the peaceful protests has been established. Not a single one. [Verified. Apart from a brief reports of tanks on the streets on Monday night, there has been no evidence of Iranian military challenging the demonstrations.]
14. Khatami and Mousavi have both asked the Ministry of Justice to investigate the involvement of the plainclothesmen in the violence that has been sparked during the protests. [Verified.]
15. Several eye-witnesses have seen non-Iranian Arabs waving Hamas/Hezbollah flags around the protests. These reports have been fully confirmed and are NOT a rumor spread by Israel. [Unverified and should be treated with caution. The accusation of "foreign" support is being used by both sides in the political manoeuvring.]
16. Finally, the big news. It seems that the Green Revolution has garnered the support of Hashemi Rafsanjani, Nateq Noori, Tabatabayee and other prominent clerics and politicians. The Rohaniyone Mubarez organization that which has in its ranks pretty much most of the clerics except for the ones in power and includes Mr. Rafsanjani and Mr. Noori has declared their support for the annullment of the election and holding of new elections. Ayatollah Montazeri has yet to declare clear support. [An important claim which is not untrue but is exaggerated at this point. Rafsanjani is clearly trying to mobilise opposition to President Ahmadinejad and the election outcome. We know that he was in Qom on Saturday, asking clerics to come out against the President, but we have no indication that he was successful with "most" of them. This is a key story which should be watched carefully in forthcoming days.]
[Enduring America is continuing to follow the situation in Iran very closely- for the latest, please subscribe to our updates.]
Reader Comments (15)
RE: No. 15. The Jerusalem Post has carried a report that members of Hamas are being used to attack demonstrators in Iran. This strikes me as ridiculous and a way for certain interests to kill two birds with one stone.
These rumours have been flying around and are reminiscent of the equally false accusations that the Shah was using Israeli 'agents' to beat up demonstrators during the revolution.
Two possible explanations:
1. Some reports claim that the security services are deliberately spreading this rumour- basically saying, if you think we are being harsh there are some Hezbollah down the street who will shoot you on sight if you persist.
2. Non Persian speaking security personnel are being drafted in from some of Iran's more distant provinces. The fact that these alleged 'foreign' agents cannot understand Persian seems to be a common theme amongst those alleging foreign involvement.
I'm assuming that the opposition is spreading these rumours because if true they would suggest that the regime is unable to get Iranians to crack down on Iranians and Arabs are not popular in some quarters in Iran. The parallal, as I think scott has pointed out, are claims by the regime of American links to the opposition.
I think that is a sensible rationale- my point was whether this was a deliberate falsification by the opposition or the result of 'chinese whispers' potentially resulting from the two scenarios I gave. In effect, how the rumour started not why..
Number 8: State released images of Pro-Ahmadinejad were doctored to make the crowd appear larger.
re: #15
photo here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2009/jun/17/iran-middleeast?picture=349003212
caption:
Supporters of the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, wave national flags and the flag of Lebanon's Shiite Muslim Hezbollah group
Roger / Thomas- thanks for the input, I'll ask Scott if he wants to update the post with your contributions when he's back.
Meanwhile here's http://www.boingboing.net/2009/06/17/ahmadinijad-sucks-at.html" rel="nofollow">a link to the apparent photoshopping of the pro-Ahmadinejad rally.
[...] covering their faces so they can’t be identified, a sign of fear. There are also unverified reports of Basiji members laying down their arms, and sometimes even being arrested by local police for [...]
Thanks to all --- I'm taking a break with a bit of music tonight but will post an update, with discussion of these points, tomorrow morning.
There is a strong list of sites that have said that the sermon at the University tomorrow will be conducted by Khamenei and that Mr. Mousavi will be standing at his right hand side when the sermon is delivered.
What a sellout
Here's a cautionary note about Twitter and the events in Iran:
http://www.slate.com/id/2220736/
Canuckistan,
I think Shafer's piece has more to do with his self-confessed inability to sift through the material on Twitter than with the deficiencies of the (best) info coming across. It has provided more leads on developments --- all of which need to be verified, of course --- than those coming from int'l media (because of restrictions on their movement/reporting).
S.
Something I find odd is the focus on Twitter as a single entity rather than as a tool. Nobody's counselling on the dangers of text messaging, email, op-ed's or television which all, like Twitter, can spread lies and wrong information (and which are all, again like Twitter, mostly full of mindless chit-chat and require filtering to get to the 'serious' stuff). At the same time nobody's crediting any of these with bringing about revolutions.
It strikes me that an awful lot of journalists have signed up to Twitter not long before they needed to write an article about it and, not having really got a grasp of it, plump for either a gushing 'this is revolutionary' type-piece, or a 'what is the point?' article because they're required to have an opinion and neither of these really requires much research. The same intense spotlight was on Facebook a while back, blogs before that, and even the internet in general before that.
Fair points in response. It is like any other tool and should be treated accordingly
What gets me is how these dirty rotten politicians get people killed.
Its simple, Iran is selling its oil on Euro's, and Israel doesnt like it.
So like Iraq got 'democracy', we are now 'helping' Iran get 'free elections'.
Twitter is one big sham...
Oh wait, I bet the Iranians caused the financial crisis, or its that guy that lives in a cave doing this...
The FED of Israel is just breaking up another country... stupid!