Today's Inside Line: Iraq's New "Surge" of Bombs and Politics

Iraq is back.

Having dropped off Page 1 --- in part because of the narrative of US surge success, in part because of George W. Bush's departure, and in part because internal politics rather than violence is so much harder to cover --- Iraq has been pushed back into the news because of a series of deadly bombings. Since Monday, more than 200 people have died in the attacks, including 65 in yesterday's motorcycle bomb in the Sadr City section of Baghdad.

The violence still isn't enough to merit Page 1 in The New York Times or Washington Post; however, Anthony Shadid has an excellent in-depth article on political manoeuvres: "In Iraq, a Different Struggle for Power - Maliki's Message on January Election Is Clear: Cooperate or Risk His Wrath". Building on interviews with council members who have faced intimidation, Shadid moves to a battle that goes beyond the old Shi'a v. Sunni storyline to highlight the tension between the national and the local, "Everyone seems to be looking for an angle, in pursuit of the coalition they think can triumph in the January elections. Everyone has a grievance no less pronounced."

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday

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Iran: The “Mousavi Revolutionary Manifesto” for Change (Gary Sick)
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LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-21 June)

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2300 GMT: It's on....Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site put out the news this evening, "There will be another peaceful demonstration in Tehran to honor the martyrs on Thursday. Please Update us with your 'Solidarity' Events around the globe on Thursday."

There will now be a 60-hour cat-and-mouse game between the protest movement and the Government. Iran State-run media had already spread the message from the Revolutionary Guards, warning demonstrators not to take to the streets Tuesday. That is now superseded by preparations for Thursday, as we predicted in a separate entry earlier today: Mousavi is declaring that he will announce the march route for Thursday much closer to the time, thus limiting the Government's ability to react.

The latest news overtakes the Government's pseudo-concession earlier in the evening. Press TV repeated the news that Guardian Council and Ministry of the Interior would conduct a box-by-box vote recount, but those same bodies added that no one should expect that this would change the results.

2100 GMT: Mousavi supporters say a general strike is to take place in Iran on Tuesday.

1920 GMT: We have now posted a special snap analysis of today's possibly significant breakthrough from talks between Mir Hossein Mousavi and senior clerics.

1910 GMT: State-run media is reporting that the Ministry of the Interior will carry out a box-by-box vote recount.

Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) reports that demos continue across Tehran. Paramilitary Basiji are stopping any group of 2 or more people and shooting at "suspects" with paintballs to identify who has been in protests. "God is great" is ringing out from the rooftops of Tehran. Tehran Bureau adds that Basiji are stopping cars and confiscating any cameras, taking the ID cards of the owners.

1810 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has now posted his appeal to the Guardian Council.

1720 GMT: Claims on Twitter that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will address a "silent, civil rally" in Tehran on Thursday. Karroubi has also reportedly urged the Guardian Council to annul the Presidential vote instead of wasting time.

1520 GMT: Al Jazeera English's Alireza Ronaghi reports "small gatherings" in a small park near 7 Tir Square with "far too many" security personnel for an ordinary afternoon. "On every important crossroad and...traffic bridges, we saw security forces and special units of the police standing by....Many of these people are just wearing normal clothes with helmets and shields."

Ronaghi also spoke with a key Ahmadinejad advisor, Alireza Zaker-Esfahani, who said, "I don't think the unrest will last. Iran's history is proof of that....Failure [of Mousavi campaign] always brings dissatisfaction. The emotional conditions will not last." The current problem is "the weakness in Mir Hossein Mousavi's political behaviour, which could help calm public opinion by giving it the right information. Unfortunately he did the opposite."

And the reason for President Ahmadinejad's near-disappearance since last Sunday? Zaker-Esfahani asserted, "If he enters the scene now, he may expose himself to the accusation that he --- as Mousavi might said --- is an accomplice in possible irregularity."

1515 GMT: Neda Agha Soltan's fiancee has confirmed to BBC Persian TV what we reported this morning in a short profile of the woman killed on Saturday by paramilitary Basiji: she was buried quickly yesterday and Iranian authorities prevented any memorial service.

1450 GMT: AP reports that the British government is going to evacuate families of British diplomatic personnel in Iran.

1408 GMT: CNN close to helpless now. They are insisting on calling the quick burial of Neda Agha Soltan and the cancelled memorial service "rumours". (We received verified information on this early this morning.)

1402 GMT: Press TV also headlining, "Iran Confirms First Swine Flu Case". Just waiting for this to be blamed on "Western interference". (The patient is a 16-year-old Iranian resident of the US who was visiting Iran.)

1400 GMT: Reports that Iranian security forces have used tear gas and fired gunshots into the air to disperse the protesters at 7 Tir Square. Press TV continues to lag behind events with the headline that the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) "is ready to crush new riots". The IRGC also hailed the Presidential election as "an epic that disappointed the enemies".

1330 GMT: BNO News now reports clashes in Tehran. The AFP wire now says there are 1000 protesters (the figure of 200 appears to have been an error).

1315 GMT: Twitter's BNO News, citing AFP, report that there are 200 people at the rally in Tehran- not the 1000+ reported by Reuters.

1255 GMT: A new rally appears to be taking place in Tehran, possibly in memory of Neda Soltan. CNN's David Clinch reports on Twitter, "Hundreds of protestors have gathered at Haft-e Tir square in Tehran. Hundreds of Basijis + riot police confronting the crowd". A smaller demonstration is also due to take place at the Iranian embassy in London.


1230 GMT: Reuters reports that the Italian embassy in Tehran is open to wounded protesters.

1150 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has urged supporters to stage more protests against Ahmadinejad's reelection. Iran has meanwhile accused the BBC and Voice of America of engineering post-election unrest in Iran.

1105 GMT: We have just posted a video which appears to show Neda Soltan minutes before her death.

1055 GMT: Associated Press are reporting that Iran's Revolutionary Guard are threatening to "crush" any further protests. Iranian activists say roadblocks from the north to south of Tehran have been set up to prevent congregation of protesters. The Iranian Parliament (Majlis) is under heavy guard, and all roads and alleyways around the Ministry of the Interior are closed with concrete blocks and guards.

1045 GMT: Has "Neda" become the symbolic key to the movement's next steps? Mir Houssein Mousavi and advisors are making a concerted effort to link image and protest, both on Mousavi's Facebook site and on a special page devoted to Neda Agha Soltan.

1015 GMT: Twitter users report that there will be a candlelit vigil for Neda Soltan this evening from 5  to 7 p.m. in 7 Tir Square, Tehran.

1005 GMT: Press TV's website and TV channel are both currently leading with Iran's condemnation of "foreign interference by certain Western states in the country's internal affairs." Significantly, however, Press TV have also announced that results in the 50 cities where the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters would not have had an impact on the outcome of the election.


1000 GMT: Press TV has confirmed that the daughter and four other relatives of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani have been released from detention.

1010 GMT: Twitter's PersianKiwi, previously a reliable source of information, believes that Mehdi Karroubi is to publish an announcement today.

0935 GMT: Reuters reports that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said that a change of leadership in Iran could lead to peaceful relations between the two states. "There is no conflict between the Iranian people and the people of Israel and under a different regime the friendly relations that prevailed in the past could be restored," he told the German newspaper Bild. "What we have seen in Iran is a powerful desire on the part of the Iranian people to be free."

0900 GMT: On the BBC's flagship radio programme Today, Jeremy Bowen offered a similar line to that in our Morning Update (0500 GMT): "The opposition has to decide what its next move will be."

0645 GMT: I'm off on academic duties until mid-afternoon. Mike Dunn will keep an eye on the latest news and update. Meanwhile, please keep sending in your information and comments.

0640 GMT: A far-from incidental detail that was lost over the weekend. The spokesman for the Guardian Council admitted to state-run IRIB television that the number of votes collected in 50 cities was more than the number of eligible voters. The total vote concerned is about 3 million.

0630 GMT: The latest phase of the Iranian Government's attack against "Western interference" was just launched by Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi in his weekly press conference. He was expansive and at times almost agitated in his denuncation, claiming at one point that CNN was posting material on how to conduct "cyber-warfare" against Iran.

The strategy was far from subtle and far from unexpected. What was more interesting was that some of the questions to Qashqavi were challenging, preferring to focus on the details of the Presidential vote rather than American, British, or French meddling. Qashqavi was uneasy at these points, avoiding the questions and returning to his main theme, arguing that there was no interference when the US had its own disputed Presidential election in 2000.

Morning Update 0500 GMT: There is still an uneasy lull in political developments and widespread protests. Press TV is eagerly reporting, "Calm has returned to the streets of the Iranian capital Tehran," with film showing cars moving freely and pedestrians strolling in shopping districts. The violence of Saturday is blamed on protestors "who attacked security forces who tried to disrupt" their march, with "hundreds" arrested (other Iranian state media put the number at 457).

Iranian authorities are trying to choke off the political challenge. They have arrested not only many advisors of Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi but also five members of former President Rafsanjani's family (although they were later reported to have been released). A large but unknown number of activists and opposition party members have also been detained. Media coverage has been closed off, not only through denial of movement to reporters but arrests of about two dozen journalists.

Mousavi is responding through statements posted on his Facebook site and webpage. Yesterday he declared,""Protesting against lies and fraud (in the election) is your right...In your protests, continue to show restraint. I am expecting armed forces to avoid irreversible damage."

However, to maintain momentum, the challenge to the Government and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad awaits movement on two fronts. Within the higher reaches of the system, Rafsanjani's challenge appears to have been blunted, with senior clerics unwilling to come out openly against the Supreme Council. The Guardian Council is holding the line on the legitimacy of the Presidential vote, and Ali Larijani's call for reforms, which we covered in detail yesterday, will have only limited if any effects.

The second front of mass pressure is also uncertain. There has been talk of a candlelight march this afternoon and of a general strike, but nothing firm has crystallised. At this point, it is more likely that there will be scattered demonstrations today.

This does not mean that the battle is over, only slowed. The symbol of "Neda", the 27-year-old student killed by paramilitary Basiji on Saturday, has spread beyond Iran and around the world. Symbols, however, can only represent change rather than bringing it about. Whether Neda Agha Soltan's death will accompany a long-term movement in Iranian politics and society or will become one of many tragic footnotes to this crisis remains to be seen.

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2003 GMT: From former President Mohammad Khatami's Facebook page: "Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi tomorrow at 4pm from Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. in Tehran for a crucial green protest."

2000 GMT: We've posted the video of President Obama's latest statement on Iran.

1955 GMT: The US Senate has followed the House of Representatives in a resolution supporting Iranian citizens espousing "the values of freedom".

1940 GMT: Reports that residents in Tehran again took to their rooftops tonight to shout, "God is Great" and "Death to the Dictator", despite the warning in Ayatollah Khamenei's address at Friday prayers.

1845 GMT: The US House Representatives has passed, by a 405-1 vote, the following resolution:

Expressing support for all Iranian citizens who embrace the values of freedom, human rights, civil liberties, and rule of law, and for other purposes.

Resolved, That the House of Representatives—

(1) expresses its support for all Iranian citizens who embrace the values of freedom, human rights, civil liberties, and rule of law;

(2) condemns the ongoing violence against demonstrators by the Government of Iran and pro-government militias, as well as the ongoing government suppression of independent electronic communication through interference with the Internet and cellphones; and

(3) affirms the universality of individual rights and the importance of democratic and fair elections.

Representative Ron Paul of Texas cast the lone No vote.

1725 GMT: We've just posted a rough English-translation transcript of the Supreme Leader's speech.

1525 GMT: We've just posted Chris Emery's snap analysis of the Supreme Leader's speech, "7 Lessons".

1330 GMT: The Ministry of the Interior has turned down the application for a permit for Saturday's 4 p.m. march at Enqelab Square.

1300 GMT: Press TV English is focusing on the Supreme Leader's criticism of "Western countries" and "Western media" in his speech today calling for an end to "illegal rallies".This includes Khameini's misrepresentation of President Obama's statement this week: "The US President [said] Washington had been waiting for people to take to the streets."

Press TV English is also reproting on a "massive rally" by worshipers denouncing the West and expressing "their readiness to defend the achievements of the Islamic revolution".

1240 GMT: The Clerical Challenge? Today's Washington Times offers further details on Hashemi Rafsanjani's attempt to rally clerics against the electoral outcome: "Three grand ayatollahs have responded, but they are the same three who have gone on the record in the past denouncing government policies to little effect." They are Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who at one time was the designated successor to Ayatollah Khomeini but is now under effective house arrest, Ayatollah Yusef al-Sa'nei, and Ayatollah Mousavi Ardabili. According to the paper, "The dozen or so other senior clerics in Qom are doing little."

The report relies on Mehdi Khalaji, who is with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and has been a strident critic of the Iranian Government, but it does correspond with other information we have received.

1200 GMT: The opposition campaign has made an immediate response to Ayatollah Khamenei's challenge. According to reliable Twitter sources, there will be a rally at 4 p.m. local time in Enqelab Square. Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and former President Mohammad Khatami will attend.

1005 GMT: And not too difficult to read the next critical step. Do the opposition campaigns and their supporters, given the Supreme Leader's threats against any new marches, stand down their plans to demonstrate tomorrow?

That decision will be made not only in response to today's speech but in response to the Guardian Council's meeting with representatives of Presidential campaigns tomorrow.

0953 GMT: Not too difficult to give an immediate reading of the Supreme Leader's address: he laid down the line to those challenging last Friday's election results. He declared that the outcome was final, indicating that any adjustment of "mistakes" would be far less than the 11-million vote lead of President Ahmadinejad. While not blaming the leader of opposition campaigns for violence, he said they would be "responsible" for "terrorist plots" carried out under cover of the demonstrations.

Khamenei's attacks on "Western interference" had a dual purpose. He was warning off other countries, especially the US (note the direct reference to President Obama's relatively mild statements about the demonstrations), from any intervention. At the same, he was using that pretext of "intervention" to mobilise support for the re-election of President Ahmadinejad.

And there was also a challenge to former President Rafsanjani to cease and desist in his own attempts to challenge Ahmadinejad and, by implication, the Supreme Leader. I may have immediately mis-heard/mis-interpreted Khamenei's references to Rafsanjani and "corruption" --- analysts are saying that the Supreme Leader was not targeting Rafsanjani's allegations of corruption against Ahmadinejad; instead, Khamenei was offering a conciliatory hand by chiding the President's allegations against Rafsanjani --- the final statement was definitive: "I am closer to the President's views."

0945 GMT: We've moved the live blog of Supreme Leader's address to a separate entry.

0815 GMT: In Britain, Al Jazeera is giving a English translation of the Supreme Leader's address. CNN is carrying out a commentary, while Sky News is taking the Press TV English feed.

0810 GMT: The Supreme Leader has now appeared in the square, which is opposite Tehran University.

0805 GMT: Press TV English is providing live coverage of Friday prayers, with a large crowd awaiting the Supreme Leader. Their current commentary is defending the recent silence of President Ahmadinejad and his advisors, as the "powerful bodies" of the Assembly of Experts, Expediency Council, and Ministry of the Interior are making the necessary statements. Their analyst, Nader Mokhtari, is praising "a tribute to the strength of Iranian democracy that allows people to go out and voice their opinions and voice their grievances on the streets. It shows a great degree of tolerance in the face of destruction that has been wrought on Tehran by certain elements."

0710 GMT: Tehran Bureau has posted an interesting overview of the political battle between former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "Rafsanjani's Next Move".

0700 GMT: It is 1130 GMT and almost everyone, including news reports, are awaiting the Supreme Leader's appearance. An Iranian witness has told "Alive in Tehran" (see separate post) that, rather than marching to prayers, the opposition protestors will demonstrate on Saturday.

We have also posted eyewitness testimony from Thursday's demonstration and the text of Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the rally.

Morning Update (0530 GMT): The Known: the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, will address those attending Friday prayers in Tehran. It will be his first public appearance since the election, and his first statement since his call for "calm" and "unity" earlier this week after meeting with representatives of the Presidential campaigns. The event will be shown live by State media, including Press TV English.

The Unknown: it is unclear whether opposition campaigns, notably that of Mir Hossein Mousavi, will organise a march to today's prayers or whether they will hold a demonstration on Saturday, when the Guardian Council will be meeting with representatives of all four Presidential candidates.

It is even more uncertain what is happening in political and religious gatherings behind the scenes. In particular, there is speculation about the latest initiatives of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has been trying to organise clerical protest and even a formal position of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Council against the electoral outcome. We have gathered some interesting analysis about Rafsanjani's position and will be posting later today.

Press TV continues to give prominence to the "official" Government line, featuring not only the Supreme Leader's Friday speech and the Guardian Council's Saturday meeting with the campaigns but also an extended report on protests in London against the BBC's coverage of the crisis. However, the broadcaster is also referring (briefly) to Thursday's demonstration in Tehran and noting Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei's appeal for details of the vote recount (he was turned down sharply). CNN's correspondent in Tehran says he is now restricted to one report per day --- today, it will be the Supreme Leader at Friday prayers, the images of which can be broadcast --- and CNN crew's requests for extensions of visas are being turned down.

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2115 GMT: We're closing off our coverage for the night with news that Mousavi has called for the release of protesters arrested in the past days' rallies. That news comes via CNN, who also have more on the Iranian football team's green wrist bands.

1700 GMT: Al Jazeera says state-run media in Iran briefly showed this afternoon's rally. SkyNews and CNN (albeit briefly) also are now showing images.

One of the banners from the Iran-South Korea World Cup football qualifier: "Go to Hell Dictator".

1600 GMT: Al Jazeera English have obtained film of the rally from 7 Tir Square showing thousands of people, most silent, marching. The gathering is calm.

Thank goodness for these images because the Iranian Government is now trying to squeeze out any notion of legitimate protest. Press TV English is leading with the Foreign Ministry's denunciation of "irresponsible meddling" by Western governments. The "American card" is now being played: amongst those summoned by the Ministry to hear the Government's protests is the Swiss Minister, the representative of US interests, and the Intelligence Ministry is saying that opposition websites are funded by American and British companies.

1518 GMT: Reports that Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi is at 7 Tir Square rally.

1510 GMT: Reports indicate that the demonstration in 7 Tir Square is so large that people are having problems getting off the underground and buses into the square.

If true, this may be one of the largest gatherings to be "non-covered" by the media. International journalists are effectively shut away, and state-run Press TV English is not saying a word about the rally.

1315 GMT: Among the 100+ reportedly arrested on Tuesday: Saeed Hajjarian, former Tehran councillor and advisor to President Khatami, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, Vice President under Khatami, and Mohammad Tavassoli, first mayor of Tehran. Ibrahim Yazdi, head of the Freedom Movement of Iran, avoided arrest because he was not at home.

Opposition activist Saeed Leylaz, who gave interviews over weekend to American and British media, also arrested.

1303 GMT: Reports that today's opposition demonstration will converage on 7 Tir Square from two directions, one group coming from Tehran University via Enqelab Avenue and one coming from Vanak Square.

The Iran national football team initially wore, then removed, green wristbands in their World Cup qualifying match with South Korea.

1300 GMT: Have just returned from BBC; staff said they are almost "blind" in Iran because of restrictions. Many CNN reports now consist of a London staffer walking into a room of computers and pointing out what is on YouTube.

1130 GMT: I am off for a live interview with BBC World TV, airing about 1215 GMT.

1125 GMT: Reports that Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has written a letter saying that, if Guardian Council does not offer details of vote recount today, he --- like Mousavi --- will ask for a new election.

1100 GMT: The latest message from Mir Hossein Mousavi to his supporters, via his campaign website: "Thursday afternoon wear black to mourn & participate in rallies or gatherings. I'll be there too."

Press TV English is now doing a balancing act, following news of the enquiry into the attacks on the Tehran University dormitories with a report on an Intelligence Ministry report to the Parliament, followed by their joint declaration urging "people to exercise restraint. No one should act in such a way as to play into the hands of the Western countries and Israel."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has also criticised "irresponsible meddling....insulting to the Iranian's people intelligence" by Western countries.

0930 GMT: I am off for an interview with BBC News about the current US approach to Iran.

0920 GMT: Friday is shaping to be an important day in this crisis. As Dr Seyed Mohammad Marandi indicated in our discussion on Al Jazeera yesterday, Ayatollah Khamenei will lead Friday prayers, while Mousavi supporters are saying they will march to the site.

0830 GMT: We wondered earlier what former President Rafsanjani was doing (0600 GMT). Reports emerging that he is meeting with the Expediency Council, an Iranian body which officially resolves differences or conflicts between the Iranian Parliament and the Guardian Council and also advises the Supreme Leader.

Press TV English reports that the Minister of the Interior has ordered an enquiry into the security forces' raid on Tehran University dormitories earlier this week.

0800 GMT: The official line inside Iran seems clear: Press TV English has just devoted the first minutes of its hourly news to the Supreme Leader's call for calm and unity. CNN has been reduced to repeating its "social media" story while Al Jazeera's correspondent in Tehran is struggling with poor sound and poor visibility in his office.

Outside Iran, however, there are interesting turnings. From London, Nazanin Ansari, the diplomatic editor of Kayhan newspaper, is telling Al Jazeera, "What the Supreme Leader has done, he has actually cornered himself. Soon you will see the Leader against the population and the marchers. We hear the chants of, "Down with the Dictator! Down with the Dictator! It is not so much against Mr Ahmadinejad as it is turning against the Supreme Leader."

0700 GMT: A reply via Twitter to our question below about Obama's statements on Iran, "He is allowng it to remain Iranian fight. Not Iran v US. If it became about US, [Iranian] government would crack hard on protesters. Government could say this is about US interference & really go after protesters. Not now. This is Iran people wanting change."

0630 GMT: We're still working through last night's somewhat curious statement by President Obama to CNBC, "I think it’s important to understand that either way we are going to be dealing with a regime in Iran that is hostile to the US." On the surface, it appears that he is both 1) maintaining the line that Washington will "engage" with Ahmadinejad if he remains in power; 2) damping down expectations of sudden movement in US-Iran relations if Mir Hossein Mousavi does becomes President.

Fair enough from a power politics standpoint. But, given the spin about US support for free expression and fair politics, what message does Obama's statement send to those demonstrating for a challenge to last Friday's vote? (My colleague Steve Hewitt has noted that yesterday morning, British Foreign Minister David Miliband sent out a similar message of "Mousavi is not a reformist" on the BBC.)

We've posted the videos of Obama's interview with CNBC and his earlier statement on Iran at his press conference with South Korea's President.

Morning Update 0600 GMT: All media except Iran's state-run services are effectively shut down inside the country. With reporters confined to their hotel rooms and offices to file reports, CNN is featuring the rise of "social media" such as Twitter.

That social media, while invaluable, can only offer a partial and uncertain picture. There are reports of more raids by police and paramilitary Basiji on university dormitories overnight --- we have video of the aftermath of one raid at Isfahan. Indications are that protests against President Ahmadinejad's re-election will take place in Tehran around 4 or 5 p.m. local time (1130-1230 GMT).

Politically, the notable intervention last night was the call of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, for calm and unity after his meeting with representatives of the four Presidential campaigns. The statement appears to be an attempt to get political breathing space, rather than a move towards a settlement, as the Guardian Council purportedly reviews part of last Friday's vote. The presence of opposition campaigns at the meeting indicates a willingness to support the Supreme Leader's call for non-violence; what will be more interesting will be their response (and the response of their supporters) to the implied plea for time to let the Guardian Council do its work.

(It is also notable, for us, that there has been no indication of former President Rafsanjani's political moves after his visit to Qom earlier this week to seek the support of senior clerics and the Assembly of Experts. President Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, is effectively on the sidelines while he is out of the country.)

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2220 GMT: Politically, the evening highlight appears to be the Supreme Leader's meeting with representatives of the four Presidential campaigns, calling for them to join together for "national unity". The move seems to be more of an attempt to buy some more political time while the Guardian Council tries to sort out its options --- all candidates will have been told of the necessity to keep demonstrations non-violent and non-threatening to the regime.

Elsewhere, chatter about gatherings has died down (it is, after all, 3 a.m. in Iran), so the hope is that there will be none of the violence that was feared earlier today.

Thanks to all for working with us today. We'll see you about 0530 GMT --- until then, our thoughts are with friends and colleagues in Iran.

2115 GMT: Breaking News On, citing the Wall Street Journal, says gunmen have seriously injured at least one person after opening fire on Mousavi supporters in Tehran. We're unable to find the specific information on the WSJ's site at this time. [Posted by Mike]

2100 GMT: Barack Obama has told CNBC that the outcome of events in Iran will make little difference to US policy towards Iran, and that Iranian hostility towards the US would remain:

"I think it's important to understand that although there is amazing ferment taking place in Iran, the difference in actual policies between Ahmadinejad and Moussavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as advertised," he said. "I think it's important to understand that either way we are going to be dealing with a regime in Iran that is hostile to the US. We have long term interests in not having them with nuclear power and funding terrorism."

[Posted by Mike]

1845 GMT: I am on a break for a couple of hours. Please keep items coming in for our late evening update --- we are following stories of a possible large march tomorrow and a statement by Ayatollah Montazeri.

1825 GMT: Reuters, citing British newspaper correspondent, says loud cries of "Allah-o-Akbar" from Tehran rooftops.

Reports that former President Rafsanjani and his daughter were amongst demonstrators marching from Vanak Square today.

1755 GMT: Twitter sources say Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi was at the rally in front of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting complex and spoke to the demonstrators.

1750 GMT: Has the BBC, normally cautious about showing any political opinion in a conflict, tilted toward the Iranian oppositions? The Beeb's homepage has turned from its usual Red to Green.

1630 GMT: Press TV still focuses on pro-Ahmadinejad rally but adds, "Pro-Mousavi rallies surround the venue" (possibly a coded reference to demonstrating outside the main Iranian broadcasting complex), and says Mousavi is among the crowd.

1535 GMT: Twitter references to "tens of thousands" of opposition demonstrators in front of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting complex are complemented by witness reports to BBC of "a mass rally in northern Tehran".

1530 GMT: Press TV English's "News in Brief" highlights pro-Ahmadinejad rally noting, "This square was supposed to be the venue of a rally for Mousavi supporters but Ahmadinejad supporters decided to show up in the same location earlier."

1520 GMT: The pro-Ahmadinejad rally has proceeded peacefully while, after the cancellation of the main opposition rally earlier today, smaller demonstrations have been occurring across Tehran. There are stories of more attacks by security forces and paramilitary Basiji at universities, including Shiraz and Mashaad. The BBC has reported the story, which circulated yesterday, that 120 faculty resigned at Tehran University.

A note on the media coverage: it became painfully apparent this afternoon that Al Jazeera's correspondent was reported from the confines of his (badly set up for sound) office. When the programme's host mentioned this, the correspondent replied that he was free to move around Tehran but, in a convoluted explanation, added that he was restricting himself "for his own safety". I suspect Government monitors were either nearby or watching intently from a Ministry. Other international media have also been effectively blinded by teh restrictions on movement.

1255 GMT: I am off to appear on Al Jazeera English's "Inside Story" considering the politics and protests in Iran. The programme will air at 1730 GMT. Full updates will resume in about two hours.

1240 GMT: Almost three hours after it began, the pro-Ahmadinejad rally is finally receiving coverage, albeit from Press TV English. Camera shots show that Vali-e Asr Square is filled with demonstrators waving Iranian flags, while correspondent Homa Lezgee is estimating there are "thousands" in the square and giving a basic summary of their arguments that Ahmadinejad won a clear majority in an election in which almost 40 million votes were cast. Lezgee is vague on who might speak to the rally, although she says it is likely to last "several hours".

Lezgee says Mousavi supporters were in Vali-e Asr Square but have moved to Vanak Square and she has had no reports of clashes.

1205 GMT: BBC correspondent John Lyon in Tehran says that, after a loosening of restrictions on international media yesterday, reporters are now confined to their offices unless they have official permission for movement. He speculates that this indicates a power struggle within the Iranian system and, from his office, says that this situation "must remind Iranians of 1979".

1115 GMT: News services are reporting that the Mousavi campaign has called off this afternoon's rally because of fear of violence.

An extraordinary interview on Al Jazeera: Professor Sadegh Zibakalam, head of Iranian Studies at Tehran University, is saying the Guardian Council's decision to review the vote is "too little, too late" to satisfy public opinion: "Nothing short of declaring the election null and void will stop the protest of the people." Even more surprisingly, Zibakalam criticised the Supreme Leader's failure to heed the pre-election warnings, in a letter from former President Rafsanjani, of Government manipulation of the vote.

1105 GMT: We've just posted an outstanding analysis by Chris Emery of the possible outcomes of the Guardian Council's recount of Friday's vote.

1035 GMT: Echoing yesterday's developments, there is confusion as to whether the Mousavi campaign is withdrawing its support for a rally. Today's tension is heightened by the overlap of the 5 p.m. rally with the earlier pro-Ahmadinejad demonstration.

1030 GMT: The Guardian Council has rejected the appeal of the Mousavi campaign for a new election: ""Based on the law, the demand of those candidates for the cancellation of the vote, this cannot be considered."

0945 GMT: The Guardian of London has posted a handy spreadsheet of the "official" vote on Friday, broken down province-by-province.

0900 GMT: According to Saeed Ahmed, the Mousavi campaign has rejected the recount proposal and insisted on a new election. It believe a "recount will provide more opportunity for fraud".

0825 GMT: CNN's Saeed Ahmed reports that the Guardian Council told the Islamic Republic News Agency that it met with the three opposition candidates, "asked them to specify what areas they want recount, and agreed to do so". That would indicate a wide-range rather than narrow reconsideration of the vote.

In turn, this opens up the possibility that the Guardian Council may overturn Friday's result. That, however, raises the further question: would it go as far as to order a re-run election or even declare Mousavi the victor?

A possible way out would be for the Guardian Council to declare Ahmadinejad's "revised" figures at below 50 percent (vs. the 63-64 percent he supposedly received). That would lead to a second-round contest between the President and Mousavi. Such a "solution" would still be politically tricky: a scapegoat (for example, the pro-Ahmadinejad Minister of Interior) would have to be found for last Friday's unfortunate events. It would mean, however, that the Council would not have to make the choice between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi.

It is notable that all of this is occurring while Ahmadinejad is in Moscow. Yesterday, the rumour was that he had cancelled the trip. Now the rumour is that he was encouraged to leave Iran as these political manoeuvres took place.

0813 GMT: Press TV English confirms news that Guardian Council "ready to recount disputed ballot boxes".

0810 GMT: According to CNN's International Desk, Press TV in Iran is reporting that the Guardian Council will recount votes from some of the provinces in Friday's election.

0740 GMT: Concerns about possible confrontations have been raised by the announcement that there will be a pro-Ahmadinejad rally in Vali-e Asr Square at 3 p.m. local time today. Demonstrators protesting the election gather in the same location two hours later.

Press TV, reporting on both planned rallies, is emphasising Mir Hossein Mousavi's call on his supporters "to keep calm...to act peacefully and to avoid falling into the trap of street violence". Mousavi's headquarters says he is not attending the 5 p.m. rally.

0645 GMT: The office of leading politician Mohammad Ali Abtahi, an ally of Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, says that he has been arrested.

Morning Update 0530 GMT: State-run Press TV is reporting that seven people were killed in the "illegal rally" at Azadi Square in Tehran yesterday. There was no direct reference to the probable source of the gunfire, members of the paramilitary Basiji militia.

Instead, Press TV's initial reference, "As protesters were beginning to disperse at sundown unidentified gunmen fired shots into the crowd," has been replaced by this morning's assertion of an "attack on a military post" by demonstrators "reportedly trying to loot weapons and vandalise public and Government property". At the same time, Press TV continues to emphasize that this "was a peaceful rally up until [that] moment."

The media line, while less enthusiastic than the coverage of yesterday afternoon's rally (see 15 June updates), indicates that the Iranian Government, including the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is trying to maintain some room for compromise with opposition.

That impression is supported by events on the political front. the optimism of yesterday afternoon has been replaced by a downbeat caution amongst opposition leaders. Mir Hossein Mousavi, writing his followers last night about his appeal to the Guardian Council over vote fraud, said, ""I don't have any hope in them."

However, in a sign that compromise might be sought, the Guardian Council are now calling the electoral outcome “provisional” and are meeting with all three opposition candidates today. The meetings occur as President Ahmadinejad is out of the country, having left for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Russia last night. Ahmadinejad, in a statement to the press as he departed, made no reference to yesterday's marches.

Other international media such as CNN, restricted in their movements, are following Press TV on the report of casualties.

In Washington, President Obama was asked about Iran during his press conference with Italian President Silvio Berlusconi. He replied,"[I am] deeply troubled by the violence I've been seeing on television....I think that the democratic process, free speech, the ability of people to peacefully dissent -- all those are universal values and need to be respected."

At the same time, Obama emphasized that his Administration would not intervene to influence the internal developments: ""We respect Iranian sovereignty and want to avoid the United States being the issue inside of Iran."