The Iran Crisis (Day 15): What to Watch For Today

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Since it was surprised by the large demonstration on 15 June, the Iranian Government's strategy --- haphazard at first, much more systematic in the last week --- has been to constrict the life out of the opposition, promising a token but lengthy vote recount, shutting down media coverage, detaining hundreds, and preventing any mass gatherings.

There is a growing sense, both among supporters of the regime and some in the opposition, that the strategy is working. The opposition's demonstrations were beaten down on Wednesday and blocked on Thursday, and the only hint of a public show today is the release of green balloons at 1 p.m. local time (0830 GMT). That leaves the public arena free for the Supreme Leader, as he leads prayers at Tehran University.

My speculaton is that Ayatollah Khomeini will speak from a platform of victory, to the acclaim of the worshipers. He will praise Iran's fortitude in the face of Western intervention and again extol its superior democracy. Again calling for order, he will offer a very limited reconciliation to the opposition, speaking of the Guardian Council's acknowledgement of concerns over the vote while condemning the "extremists" in the movement.

Watch, however, for the Supreme Leader's references (or lack of references) to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It has yet to dawn on many observers of the crisis, but the President will come out of this conflict badly even if the regime succeeds. His "legitimacy" has depended upon Khamenei's backing; Ahmadinejad has done little since his initial post-election celebration except to criticise President Obama on Wednesday. Behind-the-scene manoeuvres by clerics and politicians like former President Hashemi Rafsanjani have highlighted Ahmadinejad's weakness.

Best guess: just like last week, Khamenei will balance public support for the President with some words, possibly coded, to acknowledge the continuing relevance of Ahmadinejad's foes.

The highest-profile sign of opposition on Thursday was Mir Hosssein Mousavi's letter urging supporters to continue their demonstrations, but with restraint. The statement has gotten some notice outside Iran, especially in CNN's coverage, but it is unclear --- given the Government's limiting of communications --- how far the statement has circulated within the country.

It appears the widespread detentions have crippled the protests by shutting away both key organisers and communicators, from youth leaders to editors-in-chief.

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2030 GMT: Tehran Bureau, which has been doing sterling work through this crisis, comes through again. It has just posted an invaluable guide to the Assembly of Experts, the one Iranian body that has the power to name (and to remove) the Supreme Leaders. Notable in the article is the dissection of the politics of a key member, the pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.

2025 GMT: A curious and, if true, troubling incident. It is alleged that 70 faculty members, having met with Mir Hossein Mousavi, were later arrested.

2015 GMT: An Interesting Development. The head of Iran's National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, is reported to have met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohsen Rezaei. No word on the specific topics of discussion.

1805 GMT: Report that Ardeshir Amir Arjman, who is in charge of Mousavi campain's legal matters, has been arrested.

1755 GMT: More on the "Neda" Story. The Iranian state line, put out through the Islamic Republic News Agency, is that "The marksmen had mistaken [Neda Agha Soltan] for the sister of one of the Monafeghin who had been executed in the province of Mazandaran some time ago." The "Monafeghin" are also known as the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, which has carried out a campaign of bombings and assassinations against the Iranian Government since 1979.

Notwithstanding the curiosity that a relative of a dead terrorist is apparently under a death sentence in Iran, the story is one of many trying to absolve Iranian authorities of blame. Another version is that an "unknown gunman" targeted Neda to cause disruption and blacken the name of th Iranian establishment.

1750 GMT: Reuters is now reporting on the statement on Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi's website: "I do not accept the result and therefore consider as illegitimate the new government. Because of the irregularities, the vote should be annulled."

1745 GMT: The Guardian is reporting that authorities have ordered the family of Neda Agha Soltan out of their Tehran home after shocking images of her death were circulated around the world.

1728 GMT: Press TV not reporting any violence. Instead, they are highlighting yesterday's IRIB inteview with Tehran's mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. Qalibaf  had urged relevant Iranian officials to authorize peaceful opposition rallies, saying the public should have an outlet to express its opinions. Legalizing street rallies, he reasoned, would prevent 'saboteurs who draw weapons and kill people'.

1713 GMT: BBC website very slow/cautious to react- only now breaking the news of today's violence (and still nothing on main page)

1625 GMT: The Guardian's Washington bureau chief Ewen Macaskill reports that President Barack Obama appears to have sent a letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last month, ahead of its disputed election, calling for an improvement in relations.

1610 GMT: Twiitter update of the day from "Breaking News" - "JUST IN -- Iranian state television: Security forces broke up two protests, one of 200 and one of 50 people, but no violence reported

1606 GMT: From CNN “They were waiting for us,” the source said. “They all have guns and riot uniforms. It was like a mouse trap.”

1601 GMT: Via Twitter "Lalezar Sq same as Baharestan, unbelevable, ppls murdered everywhere... everybody under arrest & cant move"

1548 GMT: Via Twitter "In Baharestan we saw militia with axe choping ppl like meat - blood everywhere - like butcher - Allah Akbar"

1547 GMT: Iran witness to CNN: "Many people with broken arms, legs, heads -- blood everywhere -- pepper gas like war"

1545 GMT: Stream of reports via Twitter and to CNN that protesters are beaten beaten outside Iran Parliament building. Unconfirmed reports of gunfire.

1500 GMT: Al Arabiya is reporting the death of a female protester at Bahraestan Square.

Press TV is ignoring the demonstration, focusing on the Supreme Leader's call today for "law and order" and the claims of the Ministry of Interior that it found documents proving "certain foreign ministries" were behind the opposition to the election result. However, its third item is that "post-election unrest has killed 20 people, including eight Basij members", all of whom --- according to "inside sources" --- were killed by gunfire.

1445 GMT: Andrew Sullivan's running blog has posted a set of Twitter comments on today's gathering in Baharestan Square in front of the Iranian Parliament building: "I see many ppl with broken arms/legs/heads - blood everywhere - pepper gas like war...Ppl run into alleys and militia standing there waiting - from 2 sides they attack ppl in middle of alleys...saw 7/8 militia beating one woman with baton on ground - she had no defense nothing -... So many ppl arrested - young & old - they take ppl away....Just in from Baharestan Sq - situation today is terrible - they beat the ppls like animals....Ppl gathered in Baharestan but police & plain cloths don’t let the core of the rally to form."

1205 GMT: Start time of demonstrations was revised to 4:30 p.m. local time (1200 GMT), according to Mehdi Karroubi's Facebook page.

1150 GMT: No word yet about today's demonstrations. The Ministry of the Interior continues to hammer away at the line that Britain, the US, and Israel are behind the protests, with the US Central Intelligence Agency providing funding. Some of those detained are "confirmed" as agents of foreign governments.

1145 GMT: There is an intriguing report that President Ahmadinejad met last night with "some well-known" members of Parliament, who offers their congratulations on his victory. The intriguing part is that among those who did not attend was the Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani.

1030 GMT: The BBC reports the latest statement from the Supreme Leader: "I had insisted and will insist on implementing the law on the election issue....Neither the establishment nor the nation will yield to pressure at any cost."

1025 GMT: Indications, just over an hour before they are scheduled to begin, that this afternoon's protests in Tehran will take place not only in front of Parliament but in five other locations: the Vali-e Asr, Enghelab, Vanak, Tajrish, Sadehgieh streets and squares.

0935 GMT: In a sharp, effective analysis, Tehran Bureau considers "how Mr. Mousavi and the reformists should go forward". Noting the issues that we're pondering, such as the tension within the Government and "conservative" ranks, and warning against "large-scale violence", the article concludes:

The best strategy for developing the coalition is, therefore, a campaign focused on a narrow goal that is achievable, but also one that opens the door for making deeper and more meaningful changes to the current system. At present this goal is the annulment of the election and holding a new one monitored by objective and neutral observers. If that goal is achieved, that itself will be a great setback for the hard-liners and supporters of Mr. Ahmadinejad.

0855 GMT: Human Rights Watch has released a statement pointing to the appointment of "a notoriously abusive Iranian prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi" to oversee the investigation of detainees as a sign "that the authorities are preparing to bring trumped-up charges against its opponents".

0820 GMT: Claims that some detainees have been released from Evin Prison, but authorities are concentrating on holding students.

0815 GMT: BBC Persian Service is reporting that four members of the Iranian national football team have been "retired" after wearing green wristbands in their recent World Cup qualifying match with South Korea.

0800 GMT: Engagement Suspended. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has offered the first substantial sign of the effect of the political crisis on US-Iran relations. He will not be going to Italy for discussions on the situation in Afghanistan, a vital arena for co-operation between Washington and Tehran.

0635 GMT: The Rezaei shift continues: his website is claiming that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has not gone to Qom to lobby for the support of clerics against the Khamenei-Guardian Council position.

0630 GMT: Press TV English has now broken its Iran silence, venturing to mention the Guardian Council's five-day extension and the Rezaei withdrawal of his complaint because of "the political and security interests of the nation".

Morning Update 0530 GMT: After a Tuesday when there was less open protest but a lot of movement behind the scenes in Iran, as well as the high-profile statement from President Obama, a slower start to today.

CNN features Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi's open letter criticising Iranian media and charging, ""You know well that those who support Mr. Ahmadinejad's government today are promoters of fanatic and Taliban-like Islam." It also notes the Guardian Council's five-day extension of the recount but gives far less attention to former President Khatami's "action plan".

Unsurprisingly, state-run Press TV's website plays up the good news that, after the Guardian Council's extension, Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has withdrawn his complaint about vote fraud. It also has a notable story that a "headquarters" for the planning of unrest has been discovered by Iranian security forces. Activity in the building on 7 Tir Square, ostensibly used for the Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign, proves the intervention of "foreign elements". (There continues to be a shutdown on Press TV English's broadcasts on any news concerning Iran.)

(The story should be matched up with reports that there was a major raid Tuesday on the pro-Mousavi newspaper Kamaleh with approximately 25 staff arrested.)

On the streets, there are no reports yet of any "surging" of the Bazaar, as the Khatami actino plan advocates. As with previous days, it is late afternoon (4 p.m. local time) when key public events may start, in this case, a rally in front of the Iranian Parliament building. Information is still getting through from Iran via Twitter and e-mail, but there has been a sharp drop in video (although we've just picked up apparent footage of yesterday's protests) and still images. E-mail correspondents are also often guarded in their comments, given the possibility of Government surveillance.

Behind the scenes, where there was much to consider on Tuesday (see yesterday's set of stories), manoeuvres continues both between the opposition and Government camps and within the Government's ranks (for a guide, see in particular the 23 June story, "Khamenei v. Rafsanjani?", and the subsequent comments). We've received new information overnight and will be evaluating it later today.

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday

The Latest from Iran (24 June): Peering Through the Clouds

NEW Video and Transcript: Obama Press Conference (23 June)
NEW Iran: More than Khamenei v. Rafsanjani? (Gary Sick and a Response)
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UPDATE Iran: Who Was “Neda”? “A Beam of Light”
The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move
LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-23 June)
Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)

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2125 GMT: We're taking some downtime. Thanks to all who followed us today and gave us feedback and information. More from about 0530 GMT.

2115 GMT: Reports that Iranian newspaper Keyhan has called for the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, citing more than 2000 complaints.

2100 GMT: The Guardian Council-Khamenei manoeuvre for a five-day extension of the recount gets a reward: Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei withdraws his complaint about electoral fraud.

1830 GMT: Crackdown, then "Breathing Space". Iranian state media have been reporting that the Supreme Leader has granted the Guardian Council's request for five extra days to recount the Presidential vote. This is a bit curious, to say the least, since the Council was saying only yesterday that there was no possibility of the result being overturned.

Interpretation? It appears that opposition pressure, both in private maneouvres such as the Mousavi visit to Qom (with the follow-up endorsement of the candidate by the Association of Combatant Clerics), the public plans for marches tomorrow and Thursday, and the even more public Karroubi and Khatami initiatives today have unsettled the Iranian leadership.

They haven't broken the protest movement. And --- although this may be only a pawn in the chess game --- they have incurred the rhetorical wrath of the international community for the violence of recent days. Throw in the still-to-be-determined "Neda" symbolic factor, and you have a regime trying to stall developments.

Now the full White House strategy to maintain flexiblity on Iran unfolds. Obama, in a pre-planned, tips his hat to the power of the Internet and "new media" by asking Nico Pitney, who has blogging on Iran for The Huffington Post, to pass on a question from the Iranian people.

It's a nice move which ensure Obama can pay heed to those "Iranian people" and maintain his position. The question, "Will Obama deal with Ahmadinejad?" is handled with, "The thing for the Iranian Government to consider is legitimacy in the eyes of its own people....Ultimately this is up to the Iranian people to decide who their leadership is going to be."

The vague far-from-footnote is in Obama's, "What we can do is to say unequivocally is there are sets of international norms and principles about violence, about dealing with peaceful dissent."

So what does the President do if demonstrations tomorrow and/or Thursday are met with more "violence" by Iranian security forces?

1638 GMT: First question tests Obama on steps, rather than rhetoric, on Iran: Is there any "red line" that can be crossed that would suspend US engagement with Iran?

The President sidesteps the question and falls back on "rights and responsibilities" language in referring to the Iranian Government before issuing a holding comment: "We don't know how they're going to respond yet. That's what we're waiting to see."

To the follow-up question, "Should there be any consequences?", Obama holds his line, "The world is bearing witness" to the events in Iran.

1630 GMT: President Obama has just opened his press conference with "a few words" on Iran. The world is "outraged and appalled" at the treatment of protesters. So while the US "respects the sovereignty" of Iran, everyone must "speak out" about the violence wielded against the demonstrators. The Iranian Government "must heed the will of its own people and govern through consensus, not force."

Nothing new here: pointed general rhetoric to express concern and even anger about the images witnessed in recent days but no specific actions or even threats to punish the Iranian Government and suspend Obama's tentative "engagement". The coded response to those who are pressing for US intervention? "The Iranian people can speak for themselves."

Obama extended the statement by denouncing Iran's use of a fictional "Western intervention" to justify its repression, and he returned to the denunciation of the Iranian Government's abuse of rights. This is, however, a stay-the-course statement while trying to fend off domestic critics who want that "Western intervention" to become fact rather than fiction.

1510 GMT: Reports that Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page says he will attend Wednesday's march (4 p.m. local time) to Iranian Parliament in Baharestan Square.

1505 GMT: Further on that British sideshow (1045 GMT). The tit-for-tat diplomatic "happy slapping" has begun: Iran expels two British Embassy staff so London sends two Iranian diplomats packing. Believe it or not, however, this is not as bad as it could have been: if Tehran had unilaterally pulled its Ambassador (a de facto suspension of relations), that would have been more serious than this choreographed manoeuvre.

1410 GMT: We've just posted urgent news on a purported "action plan" by former President Mohammad Khatami for protests.

1408 GMT: From an Iranian activist via Twitter: "We are having difficulty getting updates to u as so many of our contacts been arrested - life here is v/v/dangerous now."

1315 GMT: More coming in on the next moves of the opposition movement. Reports that supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will assemble in front of the Iranian Parliament building tomorrow at 4 p.m. local time. Karroubi has also written an open letter to Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: ""Is your mission the inverse representation of the beating and killing of people by plain cloths [paramilitary Basiji]?"

There are reports that people are gathering in Azadi Square and building blockades and that anti-riot vans are on their way to the scene.

BBC Persian is reporting that all staff, not just the editor-in-chief (see 1215 GMT) of the pro-Mousavi newspaper Kalameh have been arrested. Other journalists have also been detained today.

1300 GMT: This hour's Press TV English coverage of Iran (see updates throughout the day)? Nothing. Not a whisper. Nothing to see here, move along.

1215 GMT: More arrests of journalists. The latest detainees are Seyed Alireza Beheshti Shirazi, editor-in-chief of the pro-Mousavi newspaper Kalameh and his son. There are also reports that a reporter for either The Washington Post or The Washington Times has been taken into custody.

1145 GMT: We've just posted a discussion between two Enduring America colleagues, Steve Hewitt and Chris Emery, on whether 2009 in Iran is an update of the events in 1979.

1125 GMT: The Financial Times of London reports that Kargozaran, "a political party affiliated with Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani" has called upon Mir Hossein Moussavi to form a “political bloc” for a long-term campaign to undermine the “illegitimate” Government.

1109 GMT: Press TV English's blackout continues: not a word in its current newscast on Iran. The website is more forthcoming: headlines are of the Guardian Council's statement that "there has been no record of any major irregularity" in the Presidential vote and of President Ahmadinejad taking the oath of office between 26 July and 19 August.

1045 GMT: A Very British Sideshow: as we await further news on developments in public and behind the scenes, the diversionary story of Britain --- that most sinister country, according to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini --- continues.

Last night, the Foreign Office advised British citizens that only those with "essential" reasons should travel to Iran, and the British Embassy began advising families of staff that they might have to be removed from the country.

This morning, Iranian state media were playing up news of a forthcoming rally by students in front of the British Embassy. Later reports, however, said that the rally had been cancelled as it had been denied a permit by the Ministry of the Interior.
Meanwhile, there were reports --- soon denied by the Iranian Government --- that the Iranian Ambassador to the UK had been recalled.

Significance? It's possible that the Supreme Leader, and subsequent Government showcases such as yesterday's Foreign Ministry conference, have overplayed the "Western threat" card. It's one thing to deploy the weapon of rhetoric, another to raise the prospect of violence against Western nationals. So the Iranian leadership, which has been careful not to attack the US Government as the primary enemy of Tehran, may be edging away from a precipice in relations.

0800 GMT: CNN's International Desk reports, "Reports from inside Iran say the problem in organizing a strike is communicating the messsage to shops & businesses not on Web."

0730 GMT: There's a curious missing-of-the-point in current media coverage, which is focusing on the Guardian Council's pre-emptive declaration that any vote recount will not change the outcome of the Presidential election. Since this move is about as unexpected as the Sun rising in the East, it might be more productive to consider how the protest movement is already looking beyond the Council to its next public and private political challenges.

0700 GMT: Press TV English's current approach is to ignore events in Iran. They are headlining US drone strikes on Pakistan, the US military in Afghanistan, and US unemployment, but not a word on their own backyard.

0630 GMT: Lara Setrakian (see her report on Monday's demonstrations in 0600 GMT update) also writes of protest resignations by faculy at Amir Kabir University in Tehran and Sani Sharif University. These follow the resignation of up to 120 faculty members at Tehran University and other academics across the country.

Morning Update 0600 GMT: Little change from our late night update. We're still waiting for reports on any general strike, but political developments are pointing towards a key rally on Thursday. The support for Mousavi from the Association of Combatant Clerics, while still limited to "reformist" backing, showed that he could mobilise important groups to come out into the open, and the opposition campaign continues to evade the tough Government restrictions to get out information and organise. Yesterday, that was shown by the statement from Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, disseminated widely, for the Guardian Council to declare the election void.

The hard part, of course, is on the ground. The Government's priority will be to prevent any repeat of the million-strong march of 15 June; conversely, the protest movement will look for a gathering large in both size and symbolism.

Behind the scenes, there is little sign of shifting apart from the Association's endorsement of Mousavi after his trip to Qom. Former Presidential Rafsanjani remains very quiet. The Supreme Leader has let others take the public lead after his Friday address, and President Rafsanjani is silent (only speculation, but I think he is being kept under wraps for fear that he will further inflame opposition).

Iran: More than Khamenei v. Rafsanjani? (Gary Sick and a Response)

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday
Iran Latest: A Khatami Action Plan?
Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)

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I think Gary Sick's work is among the best in US-based analyses of Iranian politics, and this blog is no exception. He considers the Supreme Leader's decision "to get out in front as the spokesman of the regime" and focuses on the manoeuvres of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani as he "stay(s) behind the scenes as a master strategist".

That said, I think Sick reduces the situation too much to a Khamenei v. Rafsanjani contest. Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi are far from bystanders or foot soldiers in this battle; indeed, they have moved towards centre stages in the last few days (see our posts over the last 48 hours on the developing steps in the protest movement). And there are numerous arenas in this contest, from the seminaries at Qom to Parliament possibly to the inner sanctum of the Revolutionary Guards.

And I think Sick (like Robert Fisk in his column today in The Independent of London) risks "disappearing" the demonstrators who have reshaped political dynamics since a week ago Monday. This is not to say, of course, that People Power replaces Rafsanjani in any potential showdown with Ayatollah Khameini and President Ahmadinejad. On the other hand, Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Khatami, and Karroubi depend on a continuing protest and, yes, resistance for leverage in their political challenge. It is very much a hand-in-hand relationship (at the risk of stretching an analogy, as was the case in the Philippines in the toppling of Ferdinand Marcos in 1986).

So I think we may be past the point where, as Sick puts it, there will be "a negotiated solution in which everyone saves face". But whether negotiation or confrontation, this is not just (again to borrow Sick's analogy) a chess match. It is three-dimensional chess, and there are more than two players.

Reading the Crisis in Tehran

GARY SICK

Here are a few observations about the situation in Iran based on my own experience of watching the Iranian revolution and hostage crisis from the White House thirty years ago.

Don’t expect that this will be resolved cleanly with a win or loss in short period of time. The Iranian revolution, which is usually regarded as one of the most accelerated overthrows of a well-entrenched power structure in history, started in about January 1978 and the shah departed in January 1979. During that period, there were long pauses and periods of quiescence that could lead one to believe that the revolt had subsided. This is not a sprint; it is a marathon. Endurance is at least as important as speed.

There may not be a clear winner or loser. Iranians are clever and wily politicians. They prefer chess to football, and a “win” may involve a negotiated solution in which everyone saves face. The current leadership has chosen, probably unwisely, to make this a test of strength, but if they conclude that it is a no-win situation they could settle for a compromise. The shape of a compromise is impossible to guess at this point, but it would probably involve significant concessions concealed behind a great public show of unity.

Leadership is key. Ayatollah Khamene`i, the rahbar or Leader, has chosen – again probably unwisely – to get out in front as the spokesman of the regime. Unlike his predecessor, the father of the revolution Ayatollah Khomeini, he has openly taken sides with one faction over another. He is clearly speaking for the ultra conservative leaders of the Revolutionary Guards and their equally reactionary clerical supporters, who fear any possible threat to their dominant power. Curiously, President Ahmadinejad has largely vanished from sight, which adds to the impression that he is more of a pawn than a prime mover in this affair.

On the other side is Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the erstwhile colleague and now principal antagonist of the rahbar. He has chosen, as he usually does, to stay behind the scenes as a master strategist, leaving the public field to Mir Hossein Mousavi and the other disappointed candidates and their followers.

The irony of two former colleagues now competing for power over the expiring corpse of the Islamic Republic that they created with such grandiose expectations, is lost on no one. The important sub text, however, is that these two understand very well what they are doing. They know how a revolt can be turned into a revolution. They also know they have everything to lose. The shared consciousness of high stakes has until now prevented an all out political confrontation between rival factions in the elite. That may help explain why the rahbar and the Revolutionary Guards were so reckless in their insolent contempt of the reformers and the public. They may have believed that no one would dare take it to this level.

Now that it has arrived at this point, both protagonists are faced with decisions of unprecedented gravity. There has been nothing like this in the thirty year history of the Islamic Republic, and today there is no Khomeini father figure to moderate and mediate among the warring factions. They must improvise in conditions of severe uncertainty. If anyone tells you that they know how this will turn out, treat their words with the same regard you would have for any fortune teller peering into a crystal ball.

For the United States, the watchword should be Do No Harm. The situation in Iran is being exploited for short term domestic political purposes by those who have been looking for an opening to attack the Obama administration. Wouldn’t it feel good to give full throated expression to American opposition to the existing power structure in Iran? Perhaps so — but it could also be a fatal blow to the demonstrators risking their lives on the streets of Tehran, and it could scotch any chance of eventual negotiations with whatever government emerges from this trial by fire.

The crisis in Iran is an Iranian crisis and it can only be resolved by the Iranian people and their leaders. There is no need to conceal our belief in freedom of speech and assembly and our support for the resolution of political disputes without bloodshed. But we should not be stampeded by domestic political concerns into pretending that our intervention in this crisis could be anything but pernicious.

Can President Obama play chess as well as he plays basketball?

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday

Iran: 2+2 = A Breakthrough? (Mousavi and the Clerics)
Iran: Detained Iranian Politicians and Journalists
Iran: Who was "Neda"?
Iran: The “Mousavi Revolutionary Manifesto” for Change (Gary Sick)
The Latest from Iran (21 June): Does the Fight Continue?
LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-21 June)

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2300 GMT: It's on....Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site put out the news this evening, "There will be another peaceful demonstration in Tehran to honor the martyrs on Thursday. Please Update us with your 'Solidarity' Events around the globe on Thursday."

There will now be a 60-hour cat-and-mouse game between the protest movement and the Government. Iran State-run media had already spread the message from the Revolutionary Guards, warning demonstrators not to take to the streets Tuesday. That is now superseded by preparations for Thursday, as we predicted in a separate entry earlier today: Mousavi is declaring that he will announce the march route for Thursday much closer to the time, thus limiting the Government's ability to react.

The latest news overtakes the Government's pseudo-concession earlier in the evening. Press TV repeated the news that Guardian Council and Ministry of the Interior would conduct a box-by-box vote recount, but those same bodies added that no one should expect that this would change the results.

2100 GMT: Mousavi supporters say a general strike is to take place in Iran on Tuesday.

1920 GMT: We have now posted a special snap analysis of today's possibly significant breakthrough from talks between Mir Hossein Mousavi and senior clerics.

1910 GMT: State-run media is reporting that the Ministry of the Interior will carry out a box-by-box vote recount.

Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) reports that demos continue across Tehran. Paramilitary Basiji are stopping any group of 2 or more people and shooting at "suspects" with paintballs to identify who has been in protests. "God is great" is ringing out from the rooftops of Tehran. Tehran Bureau adds that Basiji are stopping cars and confiscating any cameras, taking the ID cards of the owners.

1810 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has now posted his appeal to the Guardian Council.

1720 GMT: Claims on Twitter that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will address a "silent, civil rally" in Tehran on Thursday. Karroubi has also reportedly urged the Guardian Council to annul the Presidential vote instead of wasting time.

1520 GMT: Al Jazeera English's Alireza Ronaghi reports "small gatherings" in a small park near 7 Tir Square with "far too many" security personnel for an ordinary afternoon. "On every important crossroad and...traffic bridges, we saw security forces and special units of the police standing by....Many of these people are just wearing normal clothes with helmets and shields."

Ronaghi also spoke with a key Ahmadinejad advisor, Alireza Zaker-Esfahani, who said, "I don't think the unrest will last. Iran's history is proof of that....Failure [of Mousavi campaign] always brings dissatisfaction. The emotional conditions will not last." The current problem is "the weakness in Mir Hossein Mousavi's political behaviour, which could help calm public opinion by giving it the right information. Unfortunately he did the opposite."

And the reason for President Ahmadinejad's near-disappearance since last Sunday? Zaker-Esfahani asserted, "If he enters the scene now, he may expose himself to the accusation that he --- as Mousavi might said --- is an accomplice in possible irregularity."

1515 GMT: Neda Agha Soltan's fiancee has confirmed to BBC Persian TV what we reported this morning in a short profile of the woman killed on Saturday by paramilitary Basiji: she was buried quickly yesterday and Iranian authorities prevented any memorial service.

1450 GMT: AP reports that the British government is going to evacuate families of British diplomatic personnel in Iran.

1408 GMT: CNN close to helpless now. They are insisting on calling the quick burial of Neda Agha Soltan and the cancelled memorial service "rumours". (We received verified information on this early this morning.)

1402 GMT: Press TV also headlining, "Iran Confirms First Swine Flu Case". Just waiting for this to be blamed on "Western interference". (The patient is a 16-year-old Iranian resident of the US who was visiting Iran.)

1400 GMT: Reports that Iranian security forces have used tear gas and fired gunshots into the air to disperse the protesters at 7 Tir Square. Press TV continues to lag behind events with the headline that the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) "is ready to crush new riots". The IRGC also hailed the Presidential election as "an epic that disappointed the enemies".

1330 GMT: BNO News now reports clashes in Tehran. The AFP wire now says there are 1000 protesters (the figure of 200 appears to have been an error).

1315 GMT: Twitter's BNO News, citing AFP, report that there are 200 people at the rally in Tehran- not the 1000+ reported by Reuters.

1255 GMT: A new rally appears to be taking place in Tehran, possibly in memory of Neda Soltan. CNN's David Clinch reports on Twitter, "Hundreds of protestors have gathered at Haft-e Tir square in Tehran. Hundreds of Basijis + riot police confronting the crowd". A smaller demonstration is also due to take place at the Iranian embassy in London.


1230 GMT: Reuters reports that the Italian embassy in Tehran is open to wounded protesters.

1150 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has urged supporters to stage more protests against Ahmadinejad's reelection. Iran has meanwhile accused the BBC and Voice of America of engineering post-election unrest in Iran.

1105 GMT: We have just posted a video which appears to show Neda Soltan minutes before her death.

1055 GMT: Associated Press are reporting that Iran's Revolutionary Guard are threatening to "crush" any further protests. Iranian activists say roadblocks from the north to south of Tehran have been set up to prevent congregation of protesters. The Iranian Parliament (Majlis) is under heavy guard, and all roads and alleyways around the Ministry of the Interior are closed with concrete blocks and guards.

1045 GMT: Has "Neda" become the symbolic key to the movement's next steps? Mir Houssein Mousavi and advisors are making a concerted effort to link image and protest, both on Mousavi's Facebook site and on a special page devoted to Neda Agha Soltan.

1015 GMT: Twitter users report that there will be a candlelit vigil for Neda Soltan this evening from 5  to 7 p.m. in 7 Tir Square, Tehran.

1005 GMT: Press TV's website and TV channel are both currently leading with Iran's condemnation of "foreign interference by certain Western states in the country's internal affairs." Significantly, however, Press TV have also announced that results in the 50 cities where the number of votes cast exceeded the number of eligible voters would not have had an impact on the outcome of the election.


1000 GMT: Press TV has confirmed that the daughter and four other relatives of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani have been released from detention.

1010 GMT: Twitter's PersianKiwi, previously a reliable source of information, believes that Mehdi Karroubi is to publish an announcement today.

0935 GMT: Reuters reports that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said that a change of leadership in Iran could lead to peaceful relations between the two states. "There is no conflict between the Iranian people and the people of Israel and under a different regime the friendly relations that prevailed in the past could be restored," he told the German newspaper Bild. "What we have seen in Iran is a powerful desire on the part of the Iranian people to be free."

0900 GMT: On the BBC's flagship radio programme Today, Jeremy Bowen offered a similar line to that in our Morning Update (0500 GMT): "The opposition has to decide what its next move will be."

0645 GMT: I'm off on academic duties until mid-afternoon. Mike Dunn will keep an eye on the latest news and update. Meanwhile, please keep sending in your information and comments.

0640 GMT: A far-from incidental detail that was lost over the weekend. The spokesman for the Guardian Council admitted to state-run IRIB television that the number of votes collected in 50 cities was more than the number of eligible voters. The total vote concerned is about 3 million.

0630 GMT: The latest phase of the Iranian Government's attack against "Western interference" was just launched by Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi in his weekly press conference. He was expansive and at times almost agitated in his denuncation, claiming at one point that CNN was posting material on how to conduct "cyber-warfare" against Iran.

The strategy was far from subtle and far from unexpected. What was more interesting was that some of the questions to Qashqavi were challenging, preferring to focus on the details of the Presidential vote rather than American, British, or French meddling. Qashqavi was uneasy at these points, avoiding the questions and returning to his main theme, arguing that there was no interference when the US had its own disputed Presidential election in 2000.

Morning Update 0500 GMT: There is still an uneasy lull in political developments and widespread protests. Press TV is eagerly reporting, "Calm has returned to the streets of the Iranian capital Tehran," with film showing cars moving freely and pedestrians strolling in shopping districts. The violence of Saturday is blamed on protestors "who attacked security forces who tried to disrupt" their march, with "hundreds" arrested (other Iranian state media put the number at 457).

Iranian authorities are trying to choke off the political challenge. They have arrested not only many advisors of Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi but also five members of former President Rafsanjani's family (although they were later reported to have been released). A large but unknown number of activists and opposition party members have also been detained. Media coverage has been closed off, not only through denial of movement to reporters but arrests of about two dozen journalists.

Mousavi is responding through statements posted on his Facebook site and webpage. Yesterday he declared,""Protesting against lies and fraud (in the election) is your right...In your protests, continue to show restraint. I am expecting armed forces to avoid irreversible damage."

However, to maintain momentum, the challenge to the Government and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad awaits movement on two fronts. Within the higher reaches of the system, Rafsanjani's challenge appears to have been blunted, with senior clerics unwilling to come out openly against the Supreme Council. The Guardian Council is holding the line on the legitimacy of the Presidential vote, and Ali Larijani's call for reforms, which we covered in detail yesterday, will have only limited if any effects.

The second front of mass pressure is also uncertain. There has been talk of a candlelight march this afternoon and of a general strike, but nothing firm has crystallised. At this point, it is more likely that there will be scattered demonstrations today.

This does not mean that the battle is over, only slowed. The symbol of "Neda", the 27-year-old student killed by paramilitary Basiji on Saturday, has spread beyond Iran and around the world. Symbols, however, can only represent change rather than bringing it about. Whether Neda Agha Soltan's death will accompany a long-term movement in Iranian politics and society or will become one of many tragic footnotes to this crisis remains to be seen.