The Latest from Iran (21 June): Does the Fight Continue?

The Latest from Iran (22 June): Waiting for the Next Move

NEW Iran: Can Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani Prompt a Solution?
NEW Text: Mohammad Khatami Statement (21 June)
LATEST Video: The “Neda” Protests (20-21 June)
ARCHIVE Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran (12-18 June)
The Latest from Iran (20 June): From Rally to Street Fighting

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2040 GMT: One of the latest postings on Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook site: "You have the legal right to protest lies and frauds." A full statement is promised on Mousavi's website.

2005 GMT: Reports that Fazaeh Hashemi, daughter of former President Rafsanjani, has been released from police custody.

1900 GMT: Protests and Arrests. Reports that cries of "God is Great" and "Death to the Dictator" from Tehran rooftops are even louder this evening. Lara Setrakian 0f ABC News (US) writes that all "first- and second-level Mousavi advisors and workers" have been arrested and Mousavi is not allowed to speak to journalists.

1800 GMT: We've just published an analysis on Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's political manoeuvres and whether they might foster a political solution.

1705 GMT: Four members of former President Rafsanjani's family have been released from police custory, but his daughter Faezeh (see 1325 GMT) is still detained.

1700 GMT: Today's pattern, on the lines that we set out this morning (0715 GMT), appears to be of the Iranian authorities getting a "breathing space" by putting a heavy security presence on the streets and in the squares and of the opposition movement considering its next move.

Correspondents inside Iran write of security personnel and paramilitary Basiji in large numbers in Tehran and other cities. Arrests of "reformist" activists and journalists continue, with latest news of detentions of members of the Islamic Participation Front.

There is, however, news of a "sit-in" of up to 10,000 people on Gisha Street in north Tehran.

1445 GMT: A disturbing claim from an activist via Twiter: "Ghalamsnews asks for those injured in recent violence to leave their names and contact number."

This should be considered in conjunction with the claim of the Mousavi campaign, publicised on their Facebook page (see 1335 GMT), that Ghalam News, which had been their website, had been hacked and might now be controlled by others. The possibility is that the message now up on the site is a trap to lure and detain protesters.

1345 GMT: Reports of demonstrators gathering in Vali-e Asr Street, Engelab Square, and Baharaestan.

1335 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page is buzzing with information, such as "GHALAMNEWS, the main Newsagency of Mir Hossein Mousavi seems to be hacked". Reports also indicate that Mousavi is asking for volunteers with professional management experience to join his effort.

While I can't be certain, my memory of the numbers indicate Mousavi's pages has added 12,000 supporters in the last few days, taking the current total beyond 80,000.

1325 GMT: More on the move against the family of former President Rafsanjani (0935 GMT). Five members have been detained; it is unclear how many, although Iranian activists have listed Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh and his granddaughter. The Fars News Agency claim they have been held to protect her against assassination attempts.

Faezeh Rafsanjani is a former member of the Majlis, the Iranian Parliament. She spoke at a Tehran rally last Tuesday.

1315 GMT: Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, possibly the strongest supporter of the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad in the clerical establishment, has declared that the establishment has no duty to convince Mousavi of the election's results (text in Farsi).

Ayatollah Yazdi is a member of the Guardian Council. He also, as a reader posted out in an important comment this morning (#2 below), is the leader of the Assembly of Experts: we reported yesterday that the Assembly had supported the Supreme Leader's Friday address, 24 hours before it was delivered, but Yazdi's was the only signature.

1240 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, the former successor to Ayatollah Khomeini but now under house arrest, has calle for three days' mourning for slain protestors.

1225 GMT: Summaries of former President Khatami's statement have appeared. Warning of the "dangerous" consequences of banning public demonstrations, he has argued that the Law and Constitution must be respected: "The people are the Government."

Latest reports of arrests: activist Shahab Talebani, newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani, National Front Party memberKourosh Za'eem.

BBC correspondent Jon Leyne has reportedly been ordered to leave the country.

1050 GMT: Ahmadinejad appears! Iran State News Agency is carrying the President's statement, "tell[ing] U.S and Britain to stop interfering in Iran's internal affairs".

Former President Khatami has also issued a statement about yesterday's events --- we are looking for an English translation.

1045 GMT: The Autobus Workers Union of Iran (Sendikaye Sherkat Vahed) has issued a declaration, asking that 26 June be a day "to ask all our fellow workers to struggle for the trampled rights of the majority of the people of Iran".

1040 GMT: CNN correspondent claims that final examinations at Azad University indefinitely postponed after 200 students refused to take them.

1010 GMT: An interesting move, either by Speaker of the Parliament Larijani or by State authorities representing his position. Balancing his internal criticism of the Government (see 0745 GMT), Larijani "has called for ties with Britain, France and Germany to be reconsidered in view of their 'shameful' statements". According to State media, Larijani mades the comments in a speech to the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis.

Shrewd readers of Iranian politics will note that, while Larijani also called US remarks "shameful", he did not call for a reconsideration of Iran's relations with Washington.

1000 GMT: State media is now taking the line of 10 deaths in yesterday's violence, all of them caused by "hooligans".

0935 GMT: CNN correspondent reports, "Faezeh Rafsanjani, daughter of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, was arrested Sat[urday] in Tehran, her brother said."

0925 GMT: Iran State media has now withdrawn the claim of "several" killed in the mosque fire yesterday.

0900 GMT: A bit of house-keeping: our video page was becoming overloading. It's now been split into Latest Video (the "Neda" videos of 20 June) and Archive Video.

0835 GMT: Definitely a State counter-attack in the media through allegations of extremism/terrorism. Latest claimed assaults are upon two petrol/gas stations and a military post.

(Press TV's website is lagging behind the campaign, however. Its main headline still is, "Calm Returns to Tehran Streets".)

0820 GMT: Sky News passes on the latest line from Iran's state media: "several people" killed by demonstrators in an attack on a Tehran mosque yesterday (see yesterday's update for initial references to the incident).

0757 GMT: Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has been brought out to give a lengthy, standard defence of the Presidential vote: it was well-organised, there is no chance of systematic fraud/vote-rigging, Western powers should not interfere/criticise, etc.

The statement is not nearly as significant as this question: where is President Ahmadinejad?
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0755 GMT: We're just posting a new video of a claimed Saturday night attack on a Basiji headquarters.

0745 GMT: A political development, which depending on events may have lasting significance, that I missed yesterday. Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani told Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), "“Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals, I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate."

Larijani's comment not only struck at the unnamed President Ahmadinejad but also challenged Iran's legislature-court of last resort as it supposedly recounted part of the Presidential vote. He has enough status, not only as head of the Parliament but as a former head of the National Security Council, to mobilise opposition "within" the system as demonstrations continue outside it. It also would be useful to know if he has been in contact with another potential challenger, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.H

Unlike other criticisms that were suppressed Saturday, Larijani's comments were reported on Press TV and the website Khabaronline. (It should also be noted that, during the week, Larijani pressed for and got a nominal Ministry of Interior investigation of the raids by security forces on Tehran University that allegedly killed up to five people.)

0735 GMT: Today "Neda" may become the symbolic label and image for a movement that is verging on revolution, rather than reform.

"Neda" (the name means voice or message of the divine) was far more than a symbol; apparently she was the woman shot and killed in cold blood by a paramilitary Basiji yesterday as, with her father, she watched the demonstrations. The graphic 40-second video of her death (which is posted, albeit on the "More" page) soon represented the violence and tragedy of yesterday's clashes. Within hours, Iranian activists on Twitter, who had begin using the tag #GR88 (Green 88), also adopted #Neda as the powerful shorthand for their cause.

Morning Update 0715 GMT: Apologies for the later start today --- we're still recovering from the intensity of events yesterday and a very late night.

This has the feeling of a "regrouping" morning, as both the Government and the opposition campaigns assess the marches, the violence, and the political situation. Our immediate reaction is that yesterday was a "score draw". The Supreme Leader and security forces struck first by ensuring there could be no single, large, organised gathering at Enqelab (Revolution) Square, while the Guardian Council fending off the pressure for a meaningful reconsideration of the vote. The opposition challenge rallied, however, both because of the persistence of demonstrators, now scattered throughout the city, and because of a single event: the appearance of Mir Hossein Mousavi at a large rally in Jeyhoon Street.

None of this assessment, however, should overshadow the tragedy of yesterday. The "confirmed" casualty count, based on hospital sources, is 19 dead, but the actual total may be far higher. There were hours of beatings, tear gassings, and panic, as security forces and paramilitary Basiji tried not only to disrupt a major rally but to crush resistance (supported by the effective blackout on media). This may have been supported by a deliberate effort to show the "terrorism" of the opposition through a staged or exaggerated proclamation of an attack at Ayatollah Khamenei's mausoleum.

The Latest from Iran (20 June): From Rally to Street Fighting

NEW Video and Transcipt: The Moment of Truth?  Mousavi's Speech at Saturday’s Protests
NEW Iran: EA’s Chris Emery in The Guardian on Khamenei and Mousavi
Iran: An Iranian Live-Blogs the Supreme Leader’s Speech
Twittering Iran: What the “New Media” Means for Politics, Protest, and Democracy
The Latest from Iran (19 June): Speeches and Rallies

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2350 GMT: An Iranian activist claims, based on this posting in Farsi, that the Assembly of Experts' letter backing the Supreme Leader was issued a day before his Friday address. That would be more evidence of a systematic effort to rally the clerics behind Ayatollah Khamenei, rebuffing Hashemi Rafsanjani.

2152 GMT: CNN, based on Iranian hospital sources, is reporting at least 19 people died in today's violence. The unconfirmed death toll is as high as 150.

2150 GMT: More from the activist who was at today's marches (see 2110 GMT): "All routes to Azady square were blocked & if anyone stopped walking or walking slow [security forces] hit him/her brutally. There was no safe path, people were walking in cycles between all variety of security forces. I think they made fun of people, don't go here, go this way, not that way & for no apparent reason suddenly attacking random people. We tried our best using all known shortcuts for reaching Azady SQ where Mousavi was, but ended up in face to face with IRG [Republican Guard]. They weren't just the ordinary police or motorcycle riot guard, they were soldiers holding MP5 supported by reinforced military cars. We didn't realize for a moment they started shooting at people, the gun's sound was like a toy gun, not loud & the soliders were smiling. I was going to tell Masood they are using fake guns for scaring people! until people started screaming in agony. We ran as fast as we could in the opposite direction, at the same time Basiji bastards started to hit fleeing people. I think I saw 2 or 3 people lying on the ground in blood & IRG started to move them, probably hide them."

2140 GMT: We've posted the English translation of this afternoon's speech by Mir Hossein Mousavi.

2110 GMT: One of the most prominent activists on Twitter has returned from today's marches with this report, "It was a nightmare, I can barely breath & my face is burning, Masood got shot in the arm & Shayan's brother is missing. I don't know where to start with, first they attack our peaecful memorial gathering in front of the university with water gun.The university's doors were closed, we couldn't run everywhere! & then they start shooting tear gas at us. they were so many! riot police, normal police, intel, IRG [Republican Guard], Basij! I managed to scape, but they captured so many people."

2105 GMT: An Iranian activist asks on Twitter, "Why are Rafsanjani and Khatami so silent?" Indeed, apart from Ayatollah Montazeri with his general letter this morning, has any "establishment" figure come out alongside Mousavi with the demonstrators today?

2055 GMT: Twitter sources say that this Mehr News page (in Farsi) summarises the support of the Assembly of Experts for the Supreme Leader's Friday statement. This in turn indicates that the initial attempt of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to mobilise the Assembly against the election outcome has fizzled out.

2050 GMT: Latest reported arrest is of Mohsen Mirdamadi, the head of the pro-reform Islamic Iran Participation Front.

2005 GMT: Reported arrests throughout the day in Iran, including editors, Mousavi campaign workers, and journalists. The latest reported detainee is Jila Bani Yaghoub, journalist and women's rights activist.

1915 GMT: A few hours ago, we posted a video of a woman "badly injured" by a gunshot in today's demonstrations. The footage is so graphic that we have moved to the "jump page" after the More... tag.

I have just read more information on The New York Times blog about the incident. The woman was a bystander watching events; according to a doctor who witnessed the event, a paramilitary Basiji deliberately fired at her chest. She died within moments of the shooting.

1905 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports, "Hospital close to the scene in Tehran: 30-40 dead thus far as of 11pm and 200 injured. Police taking names of incoming injured."

1900 GMT: Press TV continuing to lead with "police usedbatons, water cannons, and tear gas on protesters", over images of a burning bus in the centre of a Tehran boulevard. It adds, "Reports say clashes are continuing" and "several people have been injured".

Press TV continues to declare " a terrorist attack" at Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum although casualty figures have been revised downward to the dead assailant and three injured. No supporting footage is provided.

1835 GMT: President Obama has just released this statement on Iran:

The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion.

Martin Luther King once said - “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” I believe that. The international community believes that. And right now, we are bearing witness to the Iranian peoples’ belief in that truth, and we will continue to bear witness.

1810 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports, "WHOLE city is shaking with very loud screams from rooftops. Their loud voices calling only for God is filled with fear, hatred, and hope." Lara Satrakian of ABC News: ""People are very angry…they are screaming like a banshee…this ain't aloha [sic] akbar anymore."

"Explosive" shouting also reported in Mashaad.

1755 GMT: Reports of loud shouts of "God is Great" from Tehran rooftops.

Reports of clashes with paramilitary Basiji at Haft Hooz Square. Further claims that demonstrators set fire to a mosque in Tehran and also set alight a bus and several motorcycles.

1745 GMT: The UK's Sky News is currently showing footage of protesters in Tehran seemingly being kicked and beaten. They are streaming a small amount of footage on their frontpage. You may also be able to see the footage by clicking 'Video News Headlines' or 'Watch Sky News Live' in the right-hand bar of their main story.

1725 GMT: The English translation of a  letter purportedly from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, the designated successor Ayatollah Khomeini before falling out of favour in 1998, has been posted: "A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress critical views. I fear that this will lead to the loss of people’s faith in Islam."

1720 GMT: Reports that IRIB 1 [Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting] now broadcasting "confessions" from detained protesters.

Also reports that people are blocking streets in east Tehran and setting fires.

1650 GMT: Claims now of fighting in Tehran, Shiraz, Rasht, Tabriz, Ahwaz, and Isfahan.

1645 GMT: We've posted a video which purports to be of Mir Hossein Mousavi addressing a rally in Jeyhoon Street in Tehran this afternoon. If verified, this could be footage of a key point in the development of this crisis.

1600 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page has been updated three times in Farsi in the last hour. We're seeking a translation.

1543 GMT: Claims that, in his speech, Mousavi declared the Presidential election "null and void". Claims also that he cast shame upon the Government and declared that he is ready for martyrdom.

1540 GMT: Eyewitness reports, via The New York Times blog, confirm fighting in Shiraz.

1530 GMT: Reports that Mir Hossein Mousavi is now addressing a crowd in Jeyhoon Street, beginning his speech, "We all go back to God."

1525 GMT: Reports of heavy fighting in Khosh St. and claims of shot protester as security forces dispersed people in Khargar Street. Claims that many people are trapped in Azadi Square.

Also reports of fighting in a 2nd city, Shiraz.

1520 GMT: CNN, whose reporters in Tehran are not allow to broadcast without permission of Iranian officials, are going to great lengths to cast scepticism on Press TV's report of the bombing at Ayatollah Khomeini's mosque. At the same time, to offer some coverage, they are playing portions of Press TV English's broadcast.

1505 GMT: Tehran Bureau reports clashes across Tehran, including Vali-e Asr Street, and gunfire and sirens around Tohid Square. It also reports protesters gathering at Vanak Square in north Tehran. There are unverified reports of one demonstrator killed at the crossing of Vali-e Asr Street and Enqelhab Square, and 20 injured protesters transferred to Loghman Hospital in 30 minutes.

There are reports that Mousavi supporters set fire to an Ahmadinejad headquarters.

Tehran Bureau: "The city is boiling over. It's a mess."

1500 GMT: Press TV's hourly lead: "Police have used batons and water cannons to disperse protestors in central Tehran who gathered to hold an illegal rally. Reports say sporadic clashes are continuing....Two helicopters have been seen hovering over the area....Police say a week of protests in the capital have injured 400 forces and done a great deal of damage to public property."

In what is likely to be a significant line, Press TV also emphasized that the Assembly of Combatant Clerics (associated with former President Khatami) had called off the rally after the Ministry of Interior refused a permit. And the station is repeating the morning statement of police commanders that Mir Hossein Mousavi will be responsible for any violence.

Press TV says three people, including the bomber, and eight were injured in the "terrorist" attack on Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum in southern Tehran.

1450 GMT: We've posted latest video of the clashes in Azadi Square and off Engelab Square, including BBC footage of shooting, fires, and clashes.

1430 GMT: We're back with the following. The bombing at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine was reportedly caused by a suicide bomber.

Eyewitnesses reported about 20,000 riot police surround Enqelab Square, armed with rifles, water cannon, and tear gas. Dozens of people were reportedly beaten to force them to leave the square, with security forces reportedly beating passing motorcyclists and even those just passing by. Some demonstrators took refuge in Tehran University.

1325 GMT: We're off to check out some reports. Back just after 1400 GMT.

1317 GMT: Press TV reporting two blasts at Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum, with two hurt (Fars News says one dead). Reports that police have closed off Tehran University.

1310 GMT: Twitter report: "In Khosh Street police is attacking people with batons & pepper spray trying to disperse people, shots can be heard around Azadi [Square]."

1300 GMT: Reports of security forces trying to prevent people assembling, chasing them into alleys and allegedly using batons. Demonstrators reportedly trapped between Behboodi and Enqelab Squares.

Reports of gunshots being fired into the air, possibly as warnings. Also reports of tear gas and water cannon being used.

1240 GMT: First pictures coming through from today's march: riot police around square (left).

1230 GMT: Associated Press reports entrance to Revolution (Enqelab) Square blocked by fire engines, with riot police surrounding Tehran University.

1213 GMT: Classic state-run double-speak on Press TV's website. It is still not mentioning today's march. Instead, its story is of the National Security Council warning Mir Hossein Mousavi "against 'the consequences' of backing street rallies". The picture? A very large rally.

1203 GMT: Unconfirmed report "from usually reliable source" to The Guardian of London that Mousavi walking with 10,000 supporters from his party office.

1200 GMT: Witness reports (albeit from before 1130 GMT) that riot police cutting off access to gathering point for march.

1150 GMT: First reports of clashes, with beating of demonstrators near Azadi Square.

1133 GMT: First reports of the march: large numbers gathering, no action by police. Cellphones in area reportedly disconnected.

1107 GMT: Al Jazeera English and Twitter sources report heavy presence of riot police on both sides of Enqelab Square.

1103 GMT: It's On! This message was posted 20 minutes ago on the Facebook page of Mir Hossein Mousavi: "The CRUCIAL Demonstration on Saturday 16:00 in Tehran and all around the world, please spread this message around."

1100 GMT: From one of the most useful Iranian sources on Twitter: "To Western Media: Stop sharing false information given to you by Iranian state television. The demonstration will GO ON. It is NOT canceled."

1045 GMT: As we wait for developments, some interesting thoughts from Gary Sick, one of the foremost US experts on Iran, on the Supreme Leader's address, Mousavi's position, and President Obama's strategy on his blog.

1030 GMT: One hour to the scheduled start of the march. Still awaiting statement by Mir Hossein Moussavi. Reuters reports the statement of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemad-e Melli party, "Because permission was not obtained, the rally today has been cancelled."

1000 GMT: Press TV English interviews Dr Seyed Mohammad Marandi of Tehran University (and a past contributor to Enduring America) about "reports here and there of protests today in Tehran": "Wouldn't this be some kind of defiance of the Supreme Leader's call for calm and peace?"

Marandi replies about "one of the things important things the Leader said yesterday and what most people believe": "It's very hard to imagine vote-rigging where 11 million votes have been manipulated....It's virtually impossible to do that." He criticises Mousavi and Karroubi for their absence from this morning's Guardian Council meeting. "All sides should calm down a bit....Shopowners and ordinary people on the streets want calm. Demonstrations on the part of any candidate...[are] irresponsible."

0930 GMT: Al Jazeera reports that Guardian Council, after its meeting with campaigns this morning, says it will conduct a random recount of "up to 10 percent" of ballot boxes from last Friday.

0907 GMT: Events moving fast. Questions now as pro-Mousavi website (text in Farsi) has announces the withdrawal of support from the Assocation of Combatant Clerics for the rally.

(It should be noted that withdrawals of support also happened on Monday, but in end Mousavi --- who had supposedly backed away from the protest --- appeared at gathering of hundreds of thousands.)

0903 GMT: Al Jazeera English reports from Iran state media that main reformist cleric body, the Association of Combatant Clerics, which includes former President Khatami, say they do not sanction this afternoon's rally.

News agencies are reporting an "important" statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi soon. Al Jazeera also passes on reports that Parliamentary committees are meeting with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to ask him to take a "greater role" in resolving the crisis.

0900 GMT: A clue to the day? Press TV English reports that Mohsen Rezaie attended this morning's meeting with the Guardian Council but Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi did not appear.

0850 GMT: Juan Cole has posted his analysis of the Supreme Leader's Friday address: "The real question is whether this is 1963, when the shah managed to put down a rebellion led by Ruhollah Khomeini, or whether it is 1978-79, when he failed to do so. The answer lies in the depth of support for the protests among the population, and in the stance of the various armed forces toward the latter."

0830 GMT: Reuters, via Iran's Fars News Agency, quotes an Iranian police commander that his forces will deal firmly with "illegal" rallies "beginning today".

0800 GMT: An aide to Mehdi Karroubi has told Agence France Presse that the rally will go ahead.

0705 GMT: There is an intriguing story on Press TV's English website, indicating both that the "inaccuracies" in last Friday's vote may be far greater than the outside figure of "1 million" in "mistakes" cited by the Supreme Leader yesterday and that challenges to the system are coming from candidates across the board, not just Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Presidential challenger Mohsen Rezaei is claiming that he received 3.5 to 7 million votes in last Friday's elections (official returns gave him less than 700,000). A spokesman of the Guardian Council "cautioned" Rezaei against "agitating public opinion".

0700 GMT: Press TV English is making no reference to today's march. Instead, it is still focusing on the Supreme Leader's address from almost 24 hours ago and saying that the National Security Council is "holding Mousavi responsible" for any violence from "unauthorised protest rallies".

The NSC also said that "a network" of agitators responsible to "foreign powers" has been carrying out violence.

0655 GMT: Meanwhile, we are waiting to hear the outcome of a meeting that could have a significant influence on developments. The Guardian Council is seeing representatives of all four Presidential campaigns about the 646 official complaints over the election. On Tuesday, when the Council agreed to hold at least a partial recount, it said the process would take 7 to 10 days.

Morning Update 0630 GMT (1100 Tehran): Five hours before the scheduled start of today's major rally, in Enqelab Square in Tehran, and there are still conflicting stories as to whether it will go ahead. Reuters is still quoting "an ally" of Mousavi who spoke to them yesterday, "Mousavi has no plans to hold a rally tomorrow (Saturday) or the day after tomorrow."

However, Twitter sources inside Iran who have proven reliable continue to publicise the march, quoting former President Mohammad Khatami. Khatami's Facebook page continues to carry the announcement, posted last night, that the demonstration will take place, with Khatami and Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi in attendance.

My guess, following the excellent analysis of Chris Emery yesterday, is that the march proceeds.

Iran: EA's Chris Emery in The Guardian on Khamenei and Mousavi

The Latest from Iran (20 June): Will The Rally Go Ahead?
Iran: The 7 Lessons of the Supreme Leader’s Address

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Chris Emery has published in The Guardian Online an updated version of his article, "7 Lessons", on the significance and possible outcomes of the Supreme Leader's address on Friday. He filed this last night, well before the dramatic events of today, but his projections --- especially as Mir Hossein Mousavi has just reportedly addressed his supporters despite State threats and violence --- are even more significant:

Khamenei puts the ball in Mousavi's court

Even for a seasoned political animal like Iran's Supreme Leader, speaking at Friday prayers posed a severe challenge. Ayatollah Khamenei, recognising that he was unable to offer the disgruntled parties any significant concessions, reasoned that the wisest move was to increase the pressure on the political opposition centred on presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. Mousavi now faces an agonising decision: does he withdraw his backing for further demonstrations or risk being held directly responsible for any future bloodshed? Khamenei's speech thus primarily aimed to split Mousavi, and to a lesser extent fellow candidate Mehdi Karroubi, from their supporters.

As I write, in the wake of Khamenei's speech, reports suggest that Mousavi will defy an Interior Ministry ban and cross the Rubicon to attend tomorrow's demonstrations in Tehran's Enqelab Square. With Khamenei having drawn a line under the election result, explicitly warning Mousavi's supporters that they cannot influence his decision making, this could yet be the greatest challenge the Islamic Republic has ever seen.

In truth, Mousavi faces few viable alternatives apart from remaining a figurehead for the opposition. Whether or not he attends tomorrow's planned demonstration, it appears certain that his supporters will turn out again in huge numbers. Denied Mousavi's political backing, these masses would be isolated and more easily attacked as extremist rioters. Mousavi is thus in the unenviable position of being responsible for his supporter's political cover, while at the same time being held accountable for any potential violence perpetrated by either side. Faced with this dilemma, Mousavi will probably attend but urge extreme restraint.

It is possible, but probably unlikely, that Mousavi will be offered something he can take to his people by the Guardian Council, which is meeting with all four presidential tomorrow. There seems little, however, this arch conservative body can now offer Mousavi in terms of concessions. Even if Mousavi is persuaded, or simply threatened, to end his challenge this would not prevent tomorrow's demonstration.

Ominously, Khamenei used his speech to defend the feared state paramilitaries, the Basij, and criticised attacks on them by the public. There are unconfirmed reports that Basij and Revolutionary Guard forces are now grouping in large numbers on the streets of Tehran. The state's irregular enforcers will potentially view the Supreme Leader's moratorium on dissent as license to commit acts of violence in the knowledge that Khamenei has implicitly set Mousavi up to take the blame.

The Supreme Leader also came to Friday prayers apparently to mostly praise former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, not to bury his rival. This, again, was a calculated political manoeuvre. Following these conciliatory gestures, together with the Supreme Leader's strong backing of Ahmadinejad, any continued moves by Rafsanjani will appear increasingly brazen and disloyal. The Supreme Leader will also be buoyed by reports that Rafsanjani's efforts to rally opposition against the president among senior clerics have met a lukewarm response.

Khamenei was thus speaking to the presidential candidates, the people in the streets and influential power bases in Iran's political establishment. Predictably, the Supreme Leader also played the nationalist card. He called the election a "political defeat" for Iran's "enemies" and evoked Iran's titanic war with Iran, the ubiquitous "Zionist" threat and the continued intrusion on Iran's national sovereignty by the United States and Britain. The speech also went beyond criticism of these alleged intrusions. Khamenei put events in Iran in a wider geo-political context; highlighting the current turmoil in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. The message to Iran's international audience was clear: continuing instability in Iran is not in your strategic interests. The Supreme Leader equally sought to remind Mousavi of the danger of Iran descending into the chaos seen in its regional neighbours, where US military intervention has followed.

Overall therefore, the Supreme Leader's defiant rejection of any wrongdoing in these elections has put the ball firmly in Mousavi's court. His political future, and even personal freedom, may now depend on the conduct of tomorrow's demonstration and how the authorities respond.

Iran: An Iranian Live-Blogs the Supreme Leader's Speech

The Latest from Iran (20 June): Will The Rally Go Ahead?

Iran: The 7 Lessons of the Supreme Leader’s Address
Iran: Live Blog of Supreme Leader’s Address (19 June)
Transcript: Ayatollah Khamanei’s Speech at Prayers (19 June)

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Juan Cole has posted the following live blog from an Iranian correspondent, writing as Ayatollah Khamenei spoke on Friday. There are minor but significant corrections to our own live blog: for example, Mohsen Rezaei was the one opposition Presidential candidate who attended. There are important impressions of conflict, "Uncharacteristically, the Leader, gets hot...folks here and there interrupt his speech and he tells them to listen," and forthcoming violence, "The green light has been given to the [paramilitary basij to, excuse my language, to kick ass, chew gum, and take names."

Rough notes...The event is like the old Red Square May Day parades. We look to see who is there, and who is not. Dr. A, Larajani, Haddad Adel, the top leadership is all there. Karrobi and Mousavi are not...but Rezaei is, sitting in the back of the VIP section.

Supreme Leader emphasizes that difference in opinion, difference in program between candidates is normal, natural. But beware, for months the enemy had been laying the groundwork to label these elections a fraud. These elections which, with the exception of the vote for the Islamic Republic in Spring of 1979, were without rival. Iran represents a third way, between dictatorships and the false democracies of the rest of the world.

He speaks of the violence, it is clear that they are laying the groundwork for a crackdown. Chaos has to be stopped. The way of the law, rah-e qanun. There are laws and we cannot allow the killing or violence to continue, either by basijis or opposition (throughout the speech he condemns the mistakes of both sides, but as I will soon make clear, comes down in favor of one side).

Supreme Leader names Nouri and Rafsanjani by name, a remarkable act by his own admission. He lauds the long record of service of both men to the country, says that he has known Rafsanjani 52 years. Leader says while there is corruption in Iran, how can anyone say that Raf. is corrupt? Stands up for him. This is clearly a slap on the wrist to the current president, for what Dr. A[hmadinejad] said about Nouri and Rafsanjani during the debates. It is not Iranian, not appropriate for such ugliness to penetrate politics. Good words were spoken during the debates, but unfortunately nastiness and un-Islamic comments were made and we need to be careful...

Mousavi, Karrobi, and Rezaei were described by their previous post and experiences, they were all defended by the Leader as good men devoted to the I[slamic] R[epublic of] I[ran]. They are almost incidental, it is so so clear that this is a grudge match, beef, between Hashemi and Dr. A. The Leader himself said as much, saying that there has been a difference in opinion between the two men stretching back to 2005. Then came the kicker, the turning point, one sentence followed by a great cheer from the audience: There is a difference in opinion between the two, and my opinion (or preference) is closer to the president than Rafsanjani.

The Leader made his choice clear.

The green light has been given to the basij to, excuse my language, to kick ass, chew gum, and take names.

A particularly juicy twist, turning night into day and a shot at the U.S. and the 2000 elections, says that you can say that cheating occurs when the difference in the votes is close, 100,000 or 500,000, or 1 million. But 11 million? How can that be cheating?

But we have a process, we will count the votes with the representatives of the candidates present, the Guardian Council will fulfill its obligation.

More night-into-day-ism: Says that there are winners and losers in elections, and for the losers to now want the "rules" to be changed or modified is wrong.

Qanun, qanun, qanun. Law, law, law. It's unnerving the emphasis on the need for law and order.

By the end, and uncharacteristically, the Leader, gets hot...folks here and there interrupt his speech and he tells them to listen. When talking about U.S. and the west and the efforts of a certain American Zionist to launch a velvet revolution in Georgia, he says that these "aqmaqha" or idiots think that they can do the same in Iran...to use such language is really shocking in the Iranian context.

Bizarre ending, ends in weeping, because the Leader says that I love you more than you know...

Overall, it does not look good, worse than it ever was... "

Iran: The 7 Lessons of the Supreme Leader's Address

The Latest from Iran (20 June): Will The Rally Go Ahead?

The Latest from Iran (19 June): The Supreme Leader Speaks
Iran: Live Blog of Supreme Leader’s Address (19 June)
Transcript: Ayatollah Khamenei's Speech at Prayers (19 June)

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Chris Emery offers the following snap analysis of today's address by the Supreme Leader:

1. Friday's speech was a challenge, even for a seasoned political performer like Ayatollah Khamenei. Unable to offer concessions, he reasoned that the wisest move was to increase the pressure on the political opposition, especially Presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi. So the Supreme Leader put an agonising decision upon Mousavi: does he withdraw his backing for further demonstrations or risk being held directly responsible for any future bloodshed?

The overriding objective: split Mousavi, and to a lesser extent fellow candidate Mehdi Karroubi, from their supporters.

2. Reports currently that Mousavi will defy an Interior Ministry ban to attend tomorrow's demonstrations in Tehran's Enqelab Square. As Khamenei has drawn a line under the election result, explicitly warning Mousavi's supporters there will be no change, Saturday's rally could yet be the greatest challenge the Islamic Republic has ever seen.

Mousavi has few alternatives to this course of action. Whether or not he attends tomorrow's planned demonstration, his supporters will turn out again in huge numbers. If they did not have Mousavi's political backing, they would be isolated and more easily labelled attacked as extremist rioters.

Mousavi is thus in the unenviable position of being responsible for his supporter's political cover, whilst at the same time being held accountable for any potential violence perpetrated by either side. Faced with this dilemma, Mousavi will probably attend but urge extreme restraint.

3. It is possible, but probably unlikely, that Mousavi will be offered something he can take to his people by the Guardian Council, which is meeting with all four presidential candidates tomorrow. There seems little, however, that the Council can now offer Mousavi.

4. Ominously, Khamenei used his speech to defend the feared state paramilitaries, the Basiji, and criticised attacks on them by the public. The State's irregular enforcers will potentially view the Supreme Leader's moratorium on dissent as license to commit acts of violence in the knowledge that Khamenei has implicitly set Mousavi up to take the blame.

5. The Supreme Leader came to Friday prayers to praise former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, not to bury his rival. Following these conciliatory gestures, together with the Supreme Leader's strong backing of Ahmadinejad, any continued moves by Rafsanjani will appear increasingly brazen and disloyal.

6. Khamenei was speaking to three audiences: the presidential candidates, the people in the streets and influential power bases in Iran's political establishment. To reach all three, he played the nationalist card. Iran was valiantly facing the threat of enemies: Western countries, "Zionists", Barack Obama, even "British radio".

This rather crude framing was buttressed by a more subtle geo-political lesson: Khamenei highlighted the current turmoil in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq to say to Iranians, "Look at these countries. Do you want to be as unstable as they are/have been?" It is also no coincidence that all three countries named have recently been the sites of American interventions.

7. The Supreme Leader's defiant rejection of any wrongdoings in these elections has put the ball firmly in Mousavi's court. The candidate's political future, and even personal freedom, may now depend on the conduct of tomorrow's demonstration and how the authorities respond.

[Enduring America is continuing to follow the situation in Iran very closely- for the latest, please subscribe to our updates.]