Israel-Palestine: Hamas' Meshaal Makes His Move

Israel-Palestine: How Netanyahu Demolished the Plan A of the Peace Process

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In a televised statement on Thursday, Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal rejected Israel’s peace proposal while hailing the US President Barack Obama’s “new language.”

With reconciliation talks with Fatah due to take place in Cairo on Sunday, Meshaal’s pragmatic speech should be interpreted as another links in a chain of moves to strengthen Washington’s hand and to put more pressure on Israel. Nevertheless, Meshaal did not bring any new ideas to the table but repeated Hamas' rhetorical position.

Meshaal took apart the recent speech by the Israeli Prime Minister, “The [Palestinian] state that Netanyahu talked about, with control on it by land, sea and air, is a freak entity and a big prison, not a country fit for a great people… Mr. Netanyahu offered merely self-governance under the name of a country”

As for Netanyahu's demand for Palestinians recognition of Israel, Meshaal responded: “The enemy's leaders call for a so-called Jewish state is a racist demand that is no different from calls by Italian Fascists and Hitler's Nazism.”

Meshaal offered no change in Hamas’s current political position, rejecting the demands of the US-EU-UN-Russia Quartet, “Dealing with Hamas and Palestinian resistance movements must be based on respecting the will of the Palestinian people and its democratic choice, not through putting conditions, such as those of the quartet” He continued to stand upon "the establishment of a Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital, that has full sovereignty on the borders of 4 June 1967; the removal of all settlements; and the achievement of the right of return".

Having drawn a firm line against any movement towards Israel, Meshaal then praised Obama with a message for "the sake of the reconciliation talks":: “We appreciate Obama's new language towards Hamas. And it is the first step in the right direction towards a dialogue without conditions, and we welcome this.”

This is not the first time that Hamas has mentioned talks with the US but on an unconditional basis. On 11 June, Meshaal told the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, “Obama says he will turn a new page in the region and begin a dialogue with the Iranians and with the Syrians unconditionally… If so, why is he placing conditions on Hamas?”

The question is whether Washington takes up Meshaal's rhetoric to put pressure on Israel. The Obama Administration has left open that possibility: when it asked Congress to allow continued aid to Palestinians, it said this was possible even if officials linked to Hamas become part of the government after reconciliation talks.

If the Cairo discussions proceed, the Obama Administration might use Meshaal’s message as leverage in the event that Israel does not move beyond symbolic developments, such as Thursday's declaration that it is reducing the number of its soldiers in four West Bank.

On then to Egypt: this time the seemingly endless cycle of stop-start discussions may have significance.

The Latest from Iran (26 June): It's (No Longer) A Thriller

The Latest from Iran (27 June): Situation Normal. Move Along.

NEW Iran’s Future: “In Time Things Will Change” (Tehran Bureau)
NEW Iran’s Future: Interpreting “The Lord of the Rings”
Latest Video: Resistance and Violence (24 June)

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1900 GMT: Mohammad Mostafaie, a defence lawyer who was prominent for representing Iranian juveniles facing the death penalty, was arrested this afternoon.

1845 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US): "Allahu Akbars begin. Intensity hasn't diminished. I hear warning shots, but after the shot they changed to death to dictator."

Also reports of a candlelit vigil tonight on the rooftops.

1830 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's website has posted his latest statement. We're working on getting an English translation.

1655 GMT: We reported earlier this week that the novelist Paulo Coelho had blogged that his "best friend" was the Iranian doctor who tried to save Neda Agha Soltan. Now that the doctor has left Iran, Coelho has identified him as the Iranian translator of his books, Arash Hejazi

1632 GMT: More from Obama: "A government that treats its own citizens with that kind of ruthlessness and violence has moved outside of universal norms."

1550 GMT: BNO, citing AFP, says that a special commission, including representatives of the defeated candidates, is to be set up to draft a report on the election.

If true, this would fit into our separate piece on the "national unity" call of Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi and reports that Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi is compromising and calling for protests to be challenged through "legal means".

1545 GMT: CNN's David Clinch say that Iran's National Security Council: has declared that Mir Hossein Moussavi's demands for the annulment of the elections are "illogical and unethical".

1530 GMT: Some are reporting a new demonstration in Tehran today, in which Mousavi supporters released green balloons.

1415 GMT: Iranbaan believes that Saeed Hajarian, whose short bio we provided here, "has been release from the clinic into ward 209 of Evin [prison] but his physical condition is not good."

1155 GMT: From a Lara Setrakian source: ""Tehran is very very quiet. There's anger & passion, but going out to show it doesn't seem very productive and is very dangerous"

1145 GMT: Twitter user iranbaan, a previously reliable source, has posted a number of updates: Detained protester Hajarian is alive but is still in "serious condition & needs to be moved to hospital outside prison." She also reports on the apparent treatment of killed protesters:

Doctors are forces to write "death in the operating room" as the cause of death for recent martyrs. / Families are charged 5-14 thousand dollars to receive the bodies of their loved ones. / They also need to sign a waver that they won't sure [sic: sue] the police or other attackers. / In a written undertaking, they need to say Mousavi is the reason & we have not complaints against police. / No mosque is allowed to hold a funeral for these martyrs.

Finally, she reports that, "Saeed Mortazavi, prosecutors general of Tehran, is put in charge of investigating recent detainees." As we reported on Wednesday, Human Rights Watch describes Mortazavi as "notoriously abusive."


1110 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News (US) reports, "Confirmed firsthand account of another 'Allahu Akbar' (God is Great) protester killed on the rootfop, this one in Tehran."

1045 GMT: AP reports that Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami, speaking during Friday prayers at Tehran University, has called on the government to punish protesters "strongly and with cruelty." (Note: Ahmed Khatami is not related to Mohammad Khatami.)

0850 GMT: According to Reuters Press TV has quoted a spokesman for the Guardian Council saying that the elections were "among the healthiest ... ever held in the country". No "major" fraud has been uncovered.

0820 GMT: Unconfirmed rumour: the Supreme Leader is wearing one white glove when he leads prayers today.

0800 GMT: Stand By Your Man. Russia has again recognized President Ahmadinejad's election victory.

0710 GMT: Worlds Collide. One of the most prominent Iranian activists on Twitter writes, "Michael Jackson is died?"

0705 GMT: Reports that Iran state media have broadcast the funeral of a Basiji killed in the demonstrations. (source: jamaldajani via Twitter)

0700 GMT: The BBC, if it is not reflecting on Michael Jackson, is recycling the tangential news that Washington has condemned President Ahmadinejad's condemnation of US interference in Iranian affairs

0520 GMT: Somewhat bizarrely, this morning's first intervention in Iran comes from the west coast of the United States (and not from the broadcasts of television stations run by Iranian exiles). The international media are screen-to-screen with coverage of the death of Michael Jackson. Even Al Jazeera put away Iran and Iraq to lead with several minutes on the scraps of information about last night's events, Jackson's careers, and (especially) chats with fans.

CNN, which has been increasingly open in its sympathy for the protests, had been trying to highlight Thursday's statement by Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, but the effort has been limited, as its website admits: "CNN has not been able to verify the authenticity of the statement on the Kamaleh site, which has been known to carry Moussavi's official statements, because it appeared to be blocked." On the BBC website, Jackson pushes Iran and Mousavi down to a single, small-font line near the bottom of the page.

Iran's Press TV talks about Michael Jackson at the end of its headlines; before that, it is using the statement of three US Senators (McCain, Graham, Lieberman) calling for tougher sanctions on Tehran to bolster the Government's line of "Western intervention".

Boom: A Few Global Facts on Military Expenditures for Your Kind Consideration

On June 8, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its calculations global military expenditure in 2008. It seems that the economic global crisis has not shattered the balance of demand and supply in the military-industrial complex. Indeed, thanks to "more significant issues" such as "the war on terrorism", Iran’s nuclear threat, and regional conflicts, the maximization of profit remains on track. Here are some important findings in our world where human life is, unfortunately, less valuable than flags, bullets, and lands.

Can you imagine how $1,464 billion spent on military weapons contribute to world poverty while almost half of the world – over three billion people – live on less than $2.50 a day, more than 80 percent of the world’s population lives in countries where income differentials are widening, and the poorest 40 percent of the world’s population accounts for 5 percent of global income while the richest 20 percent accounts for more than 75 percent?

Total Expenditure on Arms:

1- $1,464 billion was spent by all countries in 2008 which amounts to 2.4 percent of global GDP of the same year.
2 - The world expenditure on arms in 2008 increased 4 percent in real terms from $1,405 billion in 2007.
3 - Since 1999, there has been an increase of 45 percent in real terms.

Top 10 Countries of 2008:

1 – USA: With $607 billion expenditure, the US has 41 percent of overall expenditure.
2 - China: Chinese officials spent $84 billion, which is 6 percent of the total expenditure. This amount of money spent on arms is threefold that of 1999.
3 – France: French representatives spent $65.74 billion.
4 – United Kingdom: British decision-makers purchased arms at a value of $65.35 billion.
5 – Russia: With $58.6 billion expenditure, which amounts to 4 percent of overall, Russians spent three times the amount of 1999.
6 – Germany: $46.87 billion, which was 11 percent less than 10 years ago.
7 – Japan: $46.58 billion, which was 1.7 percent less than 1999.
8 – Italy: $40.69 billion
9 – Saudi Arabia: $38.2 billion
10 – India: $30 billion.

United States of America, the Winner of the Title:

As the champion of the list, with $607 billion expenditure in 2008, the US accounted for the majority (58 percent) of the global increase between 1999 and 2009.

Nuclear Weapons:

If you think  that it is only Iran and North Korea that pose a nuclear threat, the final paragraph of the report may surprise you:

SIPRI estimates that in total there were around 8 400 operational nuclear warheads in the world, of which almost 2000 were kept on high alert and capable of being launched in minutes. Counting spare warheads, those in storage and those due for dismantlement, there were some 23 300 nuclear weapons in the arsenals of eight states: the USA, Russia, China, the UK, France, India, Pakistan and Israel.

An Alliance of Interests? Russia and Israel in Obama's New World

As the advent of the Obama Administration brings back the "multipolar" in international relations, some of its most enthusiastic backers are in Moscow. During the Bush years, President Vladimir Putin publicly criticized Washington's unilateralism. Sometimes the challenge was rhetorical to the "new bombs" of the US. Sometimes it was much more:  when the Bush Administration tried to isolate Russia from NATO’s "impact zone" in Eastern Europe by proposing a missile umbrella in the Czech Republic and Poland, Putin raised the threat of a nuclear attack if Poland accepted a US missile interceptor base on its soil.

The intensity of attention to the "change" in Barack Obama’s rhetoric, especially toward the Israeli-Palestine/Arab problem, has contributed to this transformation. While Washington disowns the policies of the Bush era and puts pressure on Israel for sufficient concessions to start negotiations with Arab states, France has opened its first military base in the gulf region since the 1960s. And Russia becomes one of the first beneficiaries of the "soft power" of the US.

After Russia agreed last year not to sell S-300 missiles to Iran in 2008 and halted the sale of advanced MIG-31 fighter jets to Syria last month, Israel expedited the production of unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia. This was more than a bit of military equipment: as Israel manoeuvres agianst the Arab Peace Initiative, Tel Aviv is seeking a new relationship with Moscow. The Foreign Minister of Israel, Avigdor Lieberman, visited with President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin and declared that he would expand and deepen the strategic ties between two countries, albeit without any intention of replacing the US. "We are expanding in additional directions, including Russia, South America, central Asia and India, but our ties to America come first," asserted a senior official in Lieberman's office.

So the Netanyahu Administration is trying to use Kremlin as leverage against the pressure of the Obama Administration, using Russia's manoeuvring vis-a-vis the US to its advantage. Still, Israeli officials might want to remember that the multipolar works in more than one direction: Moscow has just welcomed Palestinian Authority representatives as part of its interest in a Middle Eastern peace process. If Russia finds common ground with Washington on issues from Eastern Europe to the Caucasus to Central Asia, will Tel Aviv again find itself isolated in this Very New World?