Israel-Palestine: Hamas' Meshaal Makes His Move

Israel-Palestine: How Netanyahu Demolished the Plan A of the Peace Process

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In a televised statement on Thursday, Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal rejected Israel’s peace proposal while hailing the US President Barack Obama’s “new language.”

With reconciliation talks with Fatah due to take place in Cairo on Sunday, Meshaal’s pragmatic speech should be interpreted as another links in a chain of moves to strengthen Washington’s hand and to put more pressure on Israel. Nevertheless, Meshaal did not bring any new ideas to the table but repeated Hamas' rhetorical position.

Meshaal took apart the recent speech by the Israeli Prime Minister, “The [Palestinian] state that Netanyahu talked about, with control on it by land, sea and air, is a freak entity and a big prison, not a country fit for a great people… Mr. Netanyahu offered merely self-governance under the name of a country”

As for Netanyahu's demand for Palestinians recognition of Israel, Meshaal responded: “The enemy's leaders call for a so-called Jewish state is a racist demand that is no different from calls by Italian Fascists and Hitler's Nazism.”

Meshaal offered no change in Hamas’s current political position, rejecting the demands of the US-EU-UN-Russia Quartet, “Dealing with Hamas and Palestinian resistance movements must be based on respecting the will of the Palestinian people and its democratic choice, not through putting conditions, such as those of the quartet” He continued to stand upon "the establishment of a Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital, that has full sovereignty on the borders of 4 June 1967; the removal of all settlements; and the achievement of the right of return".

Having drawn a firm line against any movement towards Israel, Meshaal then praised Obama with a message for "the sake of the reconciliation talks":: “We appreciate Obama's new language towards Hamas. And it is the first step in the right direction towards a dialogue without conditions, and we welcome this.”

This is not the first time that Hamas has mentioned talks with the US but on an unconditional basis. On 11 June, Meshaal told the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, “Obama says he will turn a new page in the region and begin a dialogue with the Iranians and with the Syrians unconditionally… If so, why is he placing conditions on Hamas?”

The question is whether Washington takes up Meshaal's rhetoric to put pressure on Israel. The Obama Administration has left open that possibility: when it asked Congress to allow continued aid to Palestinians, it said this was possible even if officials linked to Hamas become part of the government after reconciliation talks.

If the Cairo discussions proceed, the Obama Administration might use Meshaal’s message as leverage in the event that Israel does not move beyond symbolic developments, such as Thursday's declaration that it is reducing the number of its soldiers in four West Bank.

On then to Egypt: this time the seemingly endless cycle of stop-start discussions may have significance.

Israel-Palestine: The Politics of Prisoner Releases

The political ground in Palestine changes again. Arrests and violence have tapered off, at least for the time being, and on Monday, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas ordered the release of hundreds of Hamas prisoners held in the West Bank.

Many officials interpreted Abbas' decision as  the outcome of last week’s mutual declarations of Hamas and Fatah that they would exchange lists of detainees to break the ice before forthcoming discussions in Cairo. Azam al-Ahmad, the head of the Fatah bloc in the Palestinian Legislative Council, said: "The gesture aims at putting an end to division and lays the ground for Palestinian reconciliation talks to be held by Egypt next month."

This is a partial explanation for Abbas' move, but its wider implications should be noted. After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had declared the recognition of a de-militarized Palestinian state, surrounded with ironclad security provisions, the Palestinian Authority leader needed to hit back. And, unless many occasions in the past, Abbas had some leverage.  Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, in his meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, might have maintained the hard-line position of the Netanyahu Government on Israeli settlements, but Clinton did not fold. So Abbas, if he could get an easing of tensions with Hamas, might be in a position to put some pressure on Tel Aviv. 

This is not the end of the story, however.  Israel tried to play down the Abbas initiative --- "It is just an exchange of prisoners for the expected round of reconciliation talks" --- but recognised that this might not be enough. So, on Tuesday, Israel released the Hamas speaker of the Palestinian parliament, Aziz Dweik, who had been in prison since 2006. This was no minor prisoner: Aziz Dweik had been captured by Israeli Defense Forces just after Hamas militants had abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2006 and had been a possible bargaining chip for Shalit's return.

The moral may be that moving detainees about might buy time and a bit of breathing space, but it is no substitute for firm agreements. Next scene? The Fatah-Hamas talks in Cairo.

Israel-Palestine: Netanyahu-Mitchell Talks Postponed

Here's a news item that, amidst other crises, slipped under the radar: "A meeting between Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell originally scheduled to take place in Paris on Thursday has been postponed with no new date set."

This was supposed to be the follow-up to President Obama's Cairo initiative but the US-Israel row over Israeli settlements in the West Bank is still at the centre of relations. Netayanhu's recent speech has not removed that obstacle; to the contrary, it indicates that Tel Aviv is holding its position.

So the process reverts to another visit by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak to Washington on Monday. Barak had privately and publicly more receptive of the US position, but on Tuesday he was reported "to have approved the construction of 240 housing units" in the Israeli settlements. A State Department spokesman, Ian Kelly, announced the Mitchell-Netanyahu suspension and added:

I’ll reiterate our – what we always say or what I always say and what others say: We oppose continued settlement activity. All parties have the responsibility to help create the context that will support renewed, meaningful negotiations that can be concluded quickly. The bottom line is that we expect all parties to honor their commitments. Our position is that settlement activity has to stop consistent with the Roadmap.

The Message from the Israeli Public: 'No Concessions!'

According to a Jerusalem Post-sponsored Smith Research poll, most Israelis view outposts and settlements in the West Bank far differently than they are seen by the US Government. The outcome is a negative shift in their opinion of the Obama Administration.

Concerning the Policies of the Obama Administration:

The poll was conducted of 500 Israelis after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech on Sunday. Fifty percent considered the Obama Administration's policies more pro-Palestinian than pro-Israel, 36 percent stated that the Adminstration was neutral, while the rest did not give an opinion.

This was a marked shift from a poll conducted on May 17, on the eve of the meeting between Netanyahu and Obama. Then, 31 percent thought that US policies were pro-Israel whereas 14 percent considered them as anti-Israel and 40 percent labeled the policies of the US neutral. And, in the last months of the Bush Administration, 88 percent stated that the US policies were pro-Israel, whereas 7 percent said that Bush was neutral and 2 percent labeled him pro-Palestinian.

Concerning the Palestinian Policy of Benjamin Netanyahu:

On Benjamin Netanyahu's vision of a demilitarized Palestinian state, 70 percent affirmed their Prime Minister's policy and 27 percent opposed.

Concerning Illegal Outposts and Settlements:

The removal of illegal settlements and outpostsi was favoured by 57 perecent while 38 percent were against. More than half (52 percent) also favoured freezing far-flung settlements vs. 42 percent was against. However, on the large settlements like Gush Etzion, Ma'aleh Adumim, and Ariel, only 27 percent favoured freezing construction with 69 percent opposing.

Palestine: Is Hamas Digging Away Its Political Ground?

The diplomatic fencing since President Obama's Cairo speech has been mainly between the US and Israel over the issues of Israeli settlements and a two-state solution. This is far from the only development, however.

While Washington and Tel Aviv manoeuvre, another often-violent intra-Palestinian dance is going on between Hamas and Fatah. Indeed, that conflict is so intense that one might ask if Hamas is undermining its international legimitacy and giving extra time to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he positions himself towards and against Palestine.

In Cairo, Obama said:

Violence is a dead end. It is a sign of neither courage nor power to shoot rockets at sleeping children, or to blow up old women on a bus. That is not how moral authority is claimed; that is how it is surrendered.

Now is the time for Palestinians to focus on what they can build. The Palestinian Authority must develop its capacity to govern, with institutions that serve the needs of its people. Hamas does have support among some Palestinians, but they also have responsibilities. To play a role in fulfilling Palestinian aspirations, and to unify the Palestinian people, Hamas must put an end to violence, recognize past agreements, and recognize Israel’s right to exist.”

While Hamas gave a cautious welcome to engagement with the US, tension escalated in the West Bank and Gaza. A Damascus-based Hamas spokesman Talal Nasser called on Palestinians to fight the Palestinian Authority as though they were fighting the Israeli occupation. Moreover, Hamas security forces abducted several Fatah leaders and loyalists in the Gaza Strip overnight and killed one.

This was not just a one-sided shift, as Fatah has been upping the pressure on Hamas in the West Bank. Several members of Hamas' military wing, including two prominent leaders, were killed in fire-fights with Palestinian Authority forces in the last week. Yet Hamas's role in escalation of tension risks being seen as more emotional rather than rational, dragging its policy towards a dead end. The organisation can be portrayed as "extremist", rationalising a decision to exclude it from the peace process.

And so Israel's need for some political breathing space, perhaps ironically, is met not in Washington but in the streets of Palestine.